经济观察报记者 邹永勤 "10月以来，猪价快速下跌，全行业面临阶段性亏损。"2025年11月4日，全国生猪养殖龙头企业温氏股份（300498.SZ）在其发布的公告中如是称。 根据中国农业信息网数据，今年以来全国瘦肉型白条猪肉出厂价格指数（下称"猪价"）持续下跌，并于10月13日创下了近七年新低，报14.55元/公斤。但也 正是从14.55元/公斤起，猪价开始企稳回升，至11月4日报收于16.17元/公斤，三周时间上涨了11.13%。 那么，猪价短期内的强劲反弹势头，会带来生猪养殖业的困境反转吗？ 国信期货农产品分析师覃多贵在接受经济观察报记者采访时表示，从消费端来看，虽然每年11月至次年1月是消费逐步增加的时间段，但消费旺季并不意味 着猪价便会上涨，"考虑到前期仔猪出生情况及二次育肥带来的供应压力后移，预计本轮猪价反弹的持续性有限"。 全行业面临阶段性亏损 Wind平台信息显示，包括温氏股份、牧原股份（002714.SZ）等在内，当前生猪养殖业的上市公司共有7家（不包括新三板）。根据刚刚披露的2025年第三 季报，上述7家猪企第三季度的业绩，无论是环比还是同比，均出现了不同程度的下滑。具体来看，7家猪企第三季 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Wen's Foodstuffs Group in Q3 reflects significant challenges in the pig farming industry, with notable declines in both revenue and net profit, indicating ongoing pressures from market conditions and cyclical fluctuations [1][2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue for Wen's Foodstuffs Group was 25.937 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.76%, primarily due to falling pig prices [1][2]. - Net profit for Q3 was 1.781 billion yuan, down 65.02%, with the adjusted net profit at 1.633 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 68.07% [1][2]. - Cumulative revenue for the first three quarters was 75.788 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.03% year-on-year, while cumulative net profit was 5.256 billion yuan, down 18.29% [1][2]. Industry Context - The pig farming industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, with Wen's Foodstuffs Group's financial results indicating that the company has not fully escaped the impacts of the "pig cycle" [2][3]. - Historical data shows a strong correlation between Wen's profitability and pig prices, with profits soaring during high price periods and declining during low price phases [3]. - Current data indicates that the breeding sow inventory remains high, suggesting continued ample supply of pigs and limited potential for significant price increases in the near future [3]. Market Conditions - National pig prices showed a fluctuating upward trend in Q3 but remained lower than the previous year, corroborating Wen's report of decreased meat pig sales prices [4]. - As of October 20, 2025, the price of external three yuan pigs was 11.18 yuan/kg, down 35.41% year-on-year, which has pressured many farming enterprises below their cost lines [4]. - Despite an increase in sales volume to 9.7358 million pigs in Q3, the significant drop in price led to a substantial compression of overall gross margins [4]. Strategic Developments - Wen's Foodstuffs Group is focusing on enhancing breeding efficiency, cost control, and disease prevention, which, while increasing short-term expenditures, are expected to strengthen the company's long-term resilience and sustainability [5]. - The company’s performance is representative of broader industry challenges, including sluggish revenue growth, narrowing profit margins, and increasing financial pressures faced by many listed pig farming companies [5]. - The industry is transitioning from a fragmented and small-scale model to a more concentrated and intensive one, with larger enterprises like Wen's Foodstuffs Group gaining market share and leading the direction of industry transformation [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of the "pig cycle" in relation to China's inflation, indicating that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the fluctuations in pork prices, which serve as both a barometer and a locator for inflation trends [5][6]. - In the period from January to September 2025, China's CPI remained in negative territory except for January and June-July, with pork prices also experiencing a downward trend during the same period [6]. - In September 2025, pork prices fell by 17.0%, contributing to a decrease in CPI by approximately 0.26%, highlighting that pork's weight in the CPI basket is only 1.53%, which is significantly lower than market expectations [6]. Group 2 - The article emphasizes that despite pork's minor share in the CPI, it has become a benchmark commodity for inflation in China due to its broad necessity and high elasticity characteristics [6].

Core Viewpoint - The ability of Muyuan Foods ("牧原股份") to withstand cyclical risks remains to be improved, as indicated by its financial performance in the first three quarters of 2025, which shows revenue growth but a significant decline in profit in the third quarter [2][5]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 14.8 billion yuan, up 41% year-on-year [3][4]. - The revenue and profit growth rates have slowed compared to the same period last year, where the net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was approximately 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a staggering growth of 668.90% [2][5]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 35.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 11%, and a net profit of approximately 4.2 billion yuan, down about 56% year-on-year [2][4]. Price Fluctuations - The significant decline in profit in the third quarter is directly related to the drop in pig sales prices, with the average selling price in September 2025 being 12.88 yuan per kilogram, down from over 14 yuan per kilogram in the first seven months of 2025 [2][5]. Operational Metrics - The company sold 57.32 million pigs in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27% [6]. - The company has adjusted its expected piglet sales for the full year 2025 from a range of 8 million to 12 million to a new range of 12 million to 14.5 million [6]. Cost Management - Despite a slight increase in feed prices, the overall production cost of pig farming has been decreasing, reaching 11.6 yuan per kilogram in September, down 1.5 yuan from January [8]. - The company has achieved a historic profitability in its slaughtering business, with a total of 19.16 million pigs slaughtered in the first nine months of 2025, a 140% increase year-on-year, and a capacity utilization rate of 88% [9]. Debt Management - The company has reduced its total liabilities by approximately 9.8 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, achieving its annual debt reduction target ahead of schedule [13]. - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the company's total liabilities stood at 100.32 billion yuan, down from 110.11 billion yuan at the beginning of the year [13]. - The company aims to lower its debt-to-asset ratio to below 50% in the long term [13].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ) celebrates its 10th anniversary since its listing, demonstrating resilience and steady development through industry cycles, policy changes, and pandemic impacts, while evolving from traditional farming to a modern agricultural complex [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 75.788 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.256 billion yuan [1] - The debt ratio decreased to 49.41%, enhancing financial safety and risk resistance [1] - The company announced a profit distribution plan, proposing a cash dividend of 3 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 1.994 billion yuan, which accounts for 38% of the net profit [1] Business Evolution - Wens Foodstuff has undergone three phases: foundation building (2015-2018), adjustment during the African swine fever crisis (2019-2021), and recovery and optimization (2022-2024) [2][3][4] - The company maintained a leading annual growth rate in pig and chicken output during its initial phase, achieving an average ROIC of around 25% [2] - During the adjustment phase, the company faced challenges but maintained industry-leading liquidity and operational continuity [3] Production and Cost Management - By Q3 2025, pig output increased significantly to 9.736 million heads, a year-on-year growth of 120.63% [4] - The comprehensive breeding cost for pigs decreased to 12.4 yuan per kilogram, solidifying the company's position in the industry [4] - The chicken output reached 948 million heads in the first nine months of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company has focused on cost management as a strategic core, establishing a comprehensive cost control system across the entire industry chain [6][10] - Wens Foodstuff has developed a domestic breeding chip to reduce reliance on imports, significantly lowering detection costs [6] - The company is transitioning to a more centralized cooperative model, enhancing efficiency and disease control in its farming operations [8] Market Position and Future Outlook - Wens Foodstuff is positioned as a leading player in the industry, with a dynamic market response and a focus on long-term value creation [11][13] - The company is transitioning from a traditional farming model to a modern agricultural and food group, emphasizing intelligent, green, and branded growth [14][15] - Future strategies include enhancing production efficiency, integrating supply chains, and improving brand value to navigate industry changes and consumer trends [16][17]

Core Insights - The article highlights the impressive growth of Wens Foodstuffs Group, projecting revenue to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2024, with a cumulative dividend exceeding 30.1 billion yuan and an average annual income increase of 147% for 43,000 cooperative farmers [1][7] - Wens has successfully navigated the volatile "pig cycle" in the agricultural sector, demonstrating resilience and strategic integration of capital, industry, and technology over the past decade [1][4] Financial Performance - Wens Foodstuffs achieved a revenue of 48.2 billion yuan at its IPO and is expected to surpass 100 billion yuan by 2024 [1] - The company has implemented 15 cash dividend distributions totaling 30.11 billion yuan, with a cash dividend rate of 60.1% [4] - As of the end of 2024, Wens has repurchased 81.66 million shares for a total of 1.5 billion yuan, signaling strong internal confidence [4] Strategic Initiatives - In 2025, Wens will officially launch the "Wens Livestock" and "Wens Ingredients" brands, marking a strategic shift towards the food sector [3][5] - The company has developed a comprehensive ecosystem around its products, including cultural initiatives and partnerships to enhance consumer recognition and product value [8] Technological Advancements - Wens has invested over 3 billion yuan in digital transformation, utilizing cloud computing, big data, and AI to manage millions of livestock [9] - The company has also invested 6.6 billion yuan in environmental protection, establishing a circular economy model that converts waste into resources [9] Social Responsibility - Wens has partnered with 43,000 farmers, paying out 10.8 billion yuan in breeding profits in 2023, significantly increasing average annual income from 111,000 yuan to 275,000 yuan over ten years [7] - The company has donated over 470 million yuan through the Beiying Charity Foundation, receiving a 5A rating from provincial foundations [11] Governance and Culture - Wens emphasizes a strong governance structure with a focus on management succession and cultural integrity, promoting a work ethic of diligence and effectiveness [10] - The company's practices align closely with national strategies, contributing to food security and rural revitalization efforts [11]

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. has demonstrated resilience in its operations amid industry fluctuations, achieving significant revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of the year [1][3]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company reported revenue of 111.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.52%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.779 billion yuan, up 41.01% [1]. - The company's total liabilities decreased by 9.796 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 55.5%, down 3.18 percentage points [1]. Cost Management - The cost of pig farming has decreased from 13.1 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to 11.6 yuan/kg by September, with a target to reduce it to 11 yuan/kg by year-end [1]. - Despite a decline in pig prices, the company has maintained profitability through self-breeding models, while external purchasing has led to losses [2]. Strategic Initiatives - Muyuan Foods is transitioning from a high-growth phase to a high-quality development phase, focusing on production efficiency and profitability [2][3]. - The company is pursuing international expansion as a key strategy, having initiated a Hong Kong stock issuance plan and signed cooperation agreements with international partners [2]. Market Position - The company has effectively responded to market conditions by reducing the number of breeding sows to 3.305 million by the end of September [2]. - Analysts believe that the company's cost control and policy responsiveness highlight its leading position in the industry, with potential for sustainable growth through internationalization and technology transfer [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that pig prices have rebounded recently, with an average price of 12.51 yuan/kg as of October 30, which is an increase of 0.18 yuan/kg from the previous day and approximately 1.5 yuan/kg higher than the lowest point in mid-October [1] - Short-term price increases are driven by seasonal consumption recovery and heightened sentiment for secondary fattening, while rising prices will increase the costs of secondary fattening, necessitating attention to the sustainability of this trend [1] - Long-term expectations indicate a downward shift in recent pig price levels, with deepening breeding losses and the advancement of capacity regulation policies, which are expected to enhance the outlook for long-term price stabilization [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has recently reiterated the need to strengthen the regulation of pig production capacity, with the number of breeding sows recorded at 40.35 million as of the end of September, a decrease of 450,000 from the peak at the end of last year [2] - Policy regulations regarding production capacity, slaughter weight, and environmental funding are being fully implemented, with leading companies responding positively; for instance, Muyuan Foods reported a breeding sow inventory of 3.305 million at the end of September, a reduction of 126,000 from the end of June [2] - The expectation for future market cycles indicates that capacity regulation will remain a central theme for some time, with an anticipated increase in the elimination of outdated capacity and a further emphasis on the cost advantages of high-quality production capacity, leading to better profit elasticity post-regulation [2]

Core Viewpoint - Yongshun Biological has demonstrated strong operational resilience with a slight increase in net profit despite a decrease in revenue, indicating effective cost control and product optimization strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, Yongshun Biological achieved operating revenue of 180 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30.28 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.56% [1]. - The company's operating income decreased by 10.18% year-on-year, attributed to the cyclical fluctuations in the pig farming industry [2]. - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 74.66 million yuan, a significant increase of 34.97% year-on-year, indicating strong cash flow management [2]. - Asset impairment losses were reduced by 75.49% year-on-year, primarily due to improved inventory turnover and efficiency [2]. Product Development and Innovation - Yongshun Biological has focused on innovation, investing 15.31 million yuan in R&D, which is approximately 8.50% of its operating revenue [3]. - The company has recently obtained production licenses for two significant products: a quadrivalent inactivated vaccine for avian influenza and a bivalent inactivated vaccine for H5 subtype avian influenza, enhancing its market position in poultry vaccines [3]. - Additional product approvals include a new vaccine for pigeon newcastle disease and several other vaccines for swine diseases, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [3]. Industry Outlook - The pig farming industry is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter, supported by policy adjustments and market corrections, positioning Yongshun Biological favorably for sustained growth in the upcoming industry cycle [4].

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant role of commodities in the current global economic landscape, highlighting the pressures of supply chain and manufacturing chain restructuring due to de-involution and trade frictions, as well as the strategic value of de-sovereignized assets [1] Group 1: Commodity Analysis - Understanding gold as a key expression of global de-sovereignized assets [1] - Copper prices are viewed as the new king of commodities in the AI era [1] - The completion of industrial de-involution and the revitalization of the new energy industry chain [1] - Traditional steel mills are undergoing transformation in the black metal sector [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The pig cycle is at a bottom, driven by both policy and market factors [1] - The economic changes reflected in the tire industry, focusing on rubber's de-involution and international expansion [1] Group 3: Agenda Overview - The agenda includes discussions on interest rate cuts and long-term narratives affecting precious metals [2] - Supply disruptions and macroeconomic fluctuations impacting non-ferrous metal price outlooks [2] - Insights into the new energy market under the backdrop of de-involution policies [2] - The dual influence of policy and market on the cyclical rotation of the pig industry [3] - Black commodity raw materials and large dry bulk freight market outlook [4]