1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main logic of the current market is the impact of Trump's tariff hikes, leading to a general decline in risk - asset prices, a slump in the US stock market, and potential impacts on other countries' stock markets. The addition of tariffs may increase global trade barriers and adjust the global trade pattern, while also increasing corporate production costs and reducing residents' consumption capacity [5]. - During the holiday, metals with strong macro - attributes such as silver, copper, and nickel experienced significant declines due to Trump's unexpected tariff hikes and investors' pessimistic sentiment. The market pessimistically expects a decrease in the US trade deficit, a decline in risk - asset prices, a shrinkage of social wealth, a drop in consumption, and a significant decline in corporate profits, forming a negative feedback loop between price drops and consumption declines. The US tariff hikes on Southeast Asia and China will weaken the previous consumption expectations for copper, and the global copper consumption growth rate may be adjusted downward [5]. - There is still an expectation of a decline in copper supply outside the US, which may limit the downside space of prices. There is still a large price difference between COMEX and LME copper, and Trump did not impose tariffs on copper this time, which can drive the transport of copper available for COMEX delivery from non - US regions to the US. Currently, the spot TC of copper concentrate has dropped to - 26.4 dollars per ton, and the losses of smelters are expanding, increasing the expectation of long - term production cuts or shutdowns by smelting enterprises [5]. - In terms of trading strategies, the external market has shown a significant decline, and it is expected that the domestic Shanghai copper will open significantly lower on Monday, which will bring huge profits to downstream enterprises. It is recommended that enterprises that really need to replenish raw material inventories can appropriately buy at low prices [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction End - **Volatility**: The volatility of copper in four markets has increased, with a larger increase in the external market. The volatility of COMEX copper has risen from 19.24% on March 28 to the current 30.80% [11]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of Shanghai copper has flattened, with the spread between Shanghai copper 04 - 05 rising from - 10 yuan per ton to 20 yuan per ton. The spot discount of LME copper has expanded, and the C - structure of COMEX copper has narrowed [21]. - **Position**: The positions of Shanghai copper, international copper, LME, and COMEX copper have all decreased. The position of Shanghai copper has declined at an accelerating rate, the positions of international copper and LME copper have decreased, and the position of COMEX copper has marginally declined [22]. - **Fund and Industry Position**: The net long position of non - commercial traders in CFTC has decreased. The net short position of commercial traders in LME has decreased from 91,700 lots on March 21 to 84,600 lots, and the net long position of non - commercial traders in CFTC has decreased from 34,100 lots on March 25 to 30,025 lots on April 1 [28]. - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot premium has expanded, the Yangshan Port copper premium has declined but remains at a high level in the same period of history, the US copper premium has remained at a high level, and the Rotterdam copper premium and Southeast Asian copper premium have increased [32]. - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory has remained stable, the domestic social total inventory has shown a turning point of decline, the bonded - area inventory has continuously increased, the COMEX inventory has increased and is at a high level in the same period of history, and the LME copper inventory has continuously declined [37]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai copper 05 contract is at a historical low but higher than that of last year, and the position - to - inventory ratio of LME copper has continued to recover but remains at a relatively low historical level [38]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight. In February 2025, China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the port inventory of copper concentrate has continued to decline. The processing fee of copper concentrate has continued to weaken, and the losses of smelters have expanded [42]. - **Recycled Copper**: The supply of recycled copper has increased. In February, the import of recycled copper was 193,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.77%, and the domestic production of recycled copper was 115,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 60.83%. The price difference between refined and recycled copper has weakened, and the import profit of recycled copper has expanded [46][51]. - **Blister Copper**: The supply of blister copper is tight. In February, the import volume was 56,400 tons, at a low level in the same period of history, and the processing fee is at a relatively low historical level [56]. - **Refined Copper**: The production of refined copper has increased more than expected. In March, the production was 1.1221 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.27%, and it is expected that the production in April will be 1.1163 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.32%. The import volume of refined copper has increased, but the current import is in a large loss state, which is expected to affect subsequent imports [62]. 3.3 Demand End - **开工率**: The operating rates of copper product enterprises are differentiated, and the overall situation shows a strengthening trend. In March, the operating rate of copper tubes was at a high level in the same period of history, in February, the operating rate of copper plates, strips, and foils was at a neutral and relatively low level in the same period of history, and the operating rates of copper rods and wires increased marginally in the week of April 3 [65]. - **Profit**: The processing fee of copper rods has recovered but is at a neutral and relatively low level in the same period of history. The processing fee of copper tubes is at a high level in the same period of history but has declined marginally. The processing fee of copper plates and strips has increased slightly, and the processing fee of lithium - ion copper foil has remained stable [71]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises has continued to be at a low level. In February, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level in the same period of history, and in March, the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history [72]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods is relatively high, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable has decreased. In February, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a low level in the same period of history [75]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: The actual consumption of domestic copper is good. From January to March, the cumulative consumption was 3.5827 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%, and the apparent consumption was 3.8334 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.40%. Grid investment, home appliances, and new - energy enterprises are important supports for copper consumption, and the grid investment growth rate has accelerated [80][81]. - **Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production**: In February, the domestic air - conditioner production was 16.785 million units, a year - on - year increase of 42.92%, and the domestic new - energy vehicle production was 888,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 91.38% [83].

Economic Recovery - In January-February, the revenue of industrial enterprises increased by 2.8% year-on-year, up by 0.7 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The profits of industrial enterprises decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, but this is an improvement of 3 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024[4] - The manufacturing PMI for March was 50.5, a rise of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, marking a nearly one-year high[6] Trade and Tariff Impact - The ongoing increase in U.S. tariffs has extended the "export rush" effect, supporting inventory replenishment and order increases for enterprises[2] - The upcoming U.S. tariff investigation results are expected to significantly impact global trade order and suppress market risk appetite[11] - The U.S. economy continues to weaken, with the Markit manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.8 in March, indicating a contraction[18] Market Trends - The equity market has seen a shift in style, with technology stocks experiencing notable adjustments and a reduction in trading volume, indicating a convergence of market divergence[2] - Risk appetite in the market is declining, with gold prices expected to remain high due to geopolitical uncertainties and economic cooling in the U.S.[22] - The performance of dividend and consumer sectors has been relatively strong as investors seek opportunities outside of technology stocks[11]

德国工商大会外贸主管沃尔克·特赖尔表示："华盛顿不断增加的贸易壁垒和保护主义信号，给我们的企 业带来了相当大的担忧。" 【环球时报驻德国特约记者 青木】据德国《商报》30日报道，德国工商大会（DIHK）对约2600家在海 外开展业务的德国企业进行了调查。结果显示，大多数企业认为全球贸易壁垒正在增加，美国的情况尤 其引人注目——它曾被德国企业视为"希望的灯塔"，但现在却越来越被视为"问题地区"。 调查报告显示，每两家在海外发展业务的德国企业中，就有一家以上（58%）报告称在过去12个月中遇 到了额外的贸易壁垒。分别有59%和45%的受访企业认为，本地认证要求和加强版本的安全法规使企业 规划变得复杂并额外增加成本。此外，制裁、不透明的立法、更高的关税和对本地化程度的要求，也是 受访企业频繁提到的问题。 在美国市场的德国企业处境变得更为艰难。调查报告显示，70%的公司表示，预计美国总统特朗普的关 税政策将产生负面影响。有一半企业认为美国提高关税是一种负担，而去年这一数字为24%。 调查报告称，美国贸易政策引发的不确定性正在蔓延至全球各个地区。"今年全球的商业前景仍然不容 乐观。巨大的不确定性正在减缓刚刚起步的复苏步 ...

贸易壁垒难阻中国锂电企业发展 美国国会众议院日前通过编号H.R.1166的《与依赖外国对手电池脱钩法》，禁止国土安 全部从六家中国公司购买电池，包括宁德时代、比亚迪、远景能源、亿纬锂能、海辰储能以 及国轩高科。这是继2024年初被纳入美国国防部采购限制名单后，上述企业再度遭遇美国政 府部门采购禁令。 中国锂电产品实力加重美焦虑 中国外交部发言人曾多次表示，中方一贯反对泛化"国家安全"概念，将经贸和科技问题 政治化，中方也将坚定维护中国企业的合法权益。 美本土产业链根基薄弱 "此类针对性政策试图打击中国优势新能源产业，违背国际自由贸易原则，让美国也会 承受相应损失。"张翔认为。 实际上，美国的电池产业链根基薄弱。从原材料层面来看，美国在锂、镍、钴等关键矿 物的开采及加工能力上存在明显不足，难以保障原材料的稳定且充足供应。在生产制造环 节，美国面临着技术依赖、成本居高不下等诸多难题。美国锂电池产业链整体成本偏高，而 其试图摆脱成熟供应链的举措，只会进一步抬高自身储能以及新能源汽车产品的成本。 近日福特首席执行官吉姆·法利在接受媒体采访时表示，中国在电动汽车电池技术方面 领先美国约10年。分析人士指出，当下，美国的 ...

IMF 副总裁：贸易壁垒令全球损失 7.4 万亿美元 GDP 贝壳继 3 月北京参与土拍，本周再在广州拍地 哪吒汽车母公司拟在港股 IPO 霸王茶姬店长月薪 2.5 万港元，蜜雪最高 2.2 万港元 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 哪吒去年账面现金不足 30 亿元 今年前五个月，哪吒共交付 4.3 万辆新车，不到年交付目标 30 万辆的 15%。在行业竞争激烈之际，6 月 26 日，哪吒汽车母公司合众新能源提交港股上市申请，展示了它上市融资的紧迫性。 2023 年哪吒卖车 12.4 万辆、同比下滑 18%。卖一辆车亏损 1.8 万元，全年净亏损 68.67 亿元。近三 年累计亏损约 184 亿元。经营现金流也是三年负数，截至去年底，哪吒的现金及等价物为 28.36 亿 元，但短期借款和应付账款有 154 亿元。其中近 43 亿元借款需在今年偿还。 不过据哪吒招股书披露，今年其透过投资所得款项、长期银行借款、发行可转债补充 43 亿元运营资 金。 2017 年至今，哪吒已获得至少 10 轮融资，包括宁德时代、360 集团及有国资背景的地方产业基金， 公开的总融资金额超 200 亿元。今年 ...