Core Insights - Chinese brands need to build a foundation of quality and use value innovation as an engine to transition from "price competition" to "value competition," aiming to define future demand with unique capabilities, making "Chinese quality" a new global business language [1][6] Group 1: Soft Power and Quality - The essence of soft power is "value recognition," with quality being the core medium for building this recognition [2] - A multi-dimensional quality system shapes comprehensive soft power, integrating design innovation, production stability, and service responsiveness [2] - Quality technology competitiveness must shift from mere compliance with international standards to actively participating in global standard-setting [2] Group 2: Value Innovation and Brand Development - Value innovation is the highest goal, aiming to "define future demand" rather than just meet existing market needs [2] - The integration of "Chinese quality" and "Chinese intelligence" is essential for enhancing brand value through technological innovation [1][3] - Brands should embed cultural concepts like "harmony and coexistence" into quality standards and narratives, transforming products into flexible carriers of knowledge value [4] Group 3: Ecosystem and Collaboration - The ultimate competition in soft power is the resilience of ecosystems, emphasizing "soft-hard synergy" in traditional manufacturing [3][5] - New industries should break away from "single-point breakthroughs" and establish collaborative mechanisms among technology alliances, application scenarios, and policy adaptations [4] - The establishment of a "quality credit score" system can link corporate quality performance with financing and tax policies, creating market incentives for high-quality products [5] Group 4: Global Responsibility and Strategic Evolution - Chinese brands must transition from "physical competition" to "intellectual competition" and then to "emotional competition," with quality as the foundation and value innovation as the driving force [5][6] - The evolution of organizational forms towards "relationship value" instead of "element value" allows companies to transform from participants in the value chain to weavers of the value network [6] - The integration of Eastern philosophies into business ethics and industry logic can redefine global commercial paradigms, offering a creative response to modernity's challenges [6]

软实力衰退与否，有不同视角 作为软实力概念的奠基者，他的离开正值一个微妙的时刻—— 美国的国际软实力似乎正在以一种诡异的方式，从内部被破坏。 以下文章来源于嬉笑创客 ，作者CB 嬉笑创客 . 谈创业事，谈经济，谈生活 本文来自微信公众号： 嬉笑创客 ，作者：CB，头图来自：视觉中国 国际政治的泰斗、哈佛肯尼迪学院前院长约瑟夫·奈 （Joseph Nye） 在5月6日去世，享年88岁。没有国际政治学生能够避开这位老爷子，我也一样。 但要注意，视角不同，对软实力的判读会完全不同。 对于老特的MAGA基本盘来说，美国的软实力可能正如日中天、万国来朝。对于这群人而言，原先有强大的软实力但毫不运用，就像段誉有着震古烁 今的内力储备但不知如何使用，是彻头彻尾的浪费，直到老特上台，犹如萧峰战神附体，把80%的实力打出了150%的威力，是真实软实力的大提 升。 这也是老特班子的内宣口径。 但在国关学者和其他国家来看，尽管约瑟夫·奈在历史上曾多次反思过美国的领导地位是否行将衰落，他很可能从来没像今天一样，强烈地感受到下 坡路的威胁如此迫在眉睫。在去世前，在老特的上一任期，他的看法可以用他自己的语言概括："川普担任总统四年，对我 ...

国际政治的泰斗、哈佛肯尼迪学院前院长约瑟夫·奈（Joseph Nye）在5月6日去世，享年88岁。没有国际政治学生能够避开这位老爷 子，我也一样。 软实力衰退与否，有不同视角 作为软实力概念的奠基者，他的离开正值一个微妙的时刻——美国的国际软实力似乎正在以一种诡异的方式，从内部被破坏。 但在国关学者和其他国家来看，尽管约瑟夫·奈在历史上曾多次反思过美国的领导地位是否行将衰落，他很可能从来没像今天一样， 强烈地感受到下坡路的威胁如此迫在眉睫。在去世前，在老特的上一任期，他的看法可以用他自己的语言概括："川普担任总统四 年，对我、对美国和对世界来说都很煎熬。他很难相处，因为他对国际事务的情境智力很低，而且他高度自恋，限制了他的情绪智 力。" 一个难相处的人不一定是坏的共事者。有的领导很难相处，对下要求严格、挑剔，但你知道他会让你提升进步，并且分利益的时候 公平甚至大方，你不太会有怨言。但如果这个领导反复无常、苛刻且理由不能服众，很多时候让人觉得只是为了挑刺而挑刺，以批 评来立威，你不会敬佩，也不会想追随。 对外和对内不在自己阵营的人，老特无疑都是那个"难相处"的人。如果对内还有整体国力提升这样的业绩可以交待，对外 ...

南都讯 记者黄璐 5月9日，第九届"深圳（湾区）国际品牌周"暨2025年中国品牌日·深圳地方特色活动开 幕大会在深圳广电大厦举行。本届品牌周以"品牌引领未来，创新驱动湾区"为主题，"2025中国品牌价 值500强"中英文榜单独家发布，"国际信誉品牌""深圳（湾区）知名品牌"近400项品牌成果集中亮相展 示，国际品牌专家、知名企业领袖发表主题演讲，探索科技革命和产业变革时代品牌发展新路径。 深圳工业总会会长吴光权表示，本届品牌周旨在将深圳品牌建设的成功经验辐射至大湾区，推动湾区企 业共创国际化品牌。未来，将联合政产学研多方力量，为打造"更具时代引领性的深圳品牌"贡献智慧与 力量。 榜单独家发布，彰显品牌发展硬实力 每年在达沃斯世界经济论坛年会上发布全球品牌价值500强的国际著名品牌价值评估咨询机构Brand Finance，联合深圳工业总会在第九届"深圳（湾区）国际品牌周"上独家发布"2025中国品牌价值500 强"中英文榜单。 同时，Brand Finance中国公司联合创始人、总裁陈忆登对榜单进行解读。今年，粤港澳大湾区109个品 牌上榜"2025中国品牌价值500强"。深圳共有34个品牌上榜，其中，荣获" ...

这条路线被称为Nye Initiative（奈倡议）。如果没有他的行动，美日和美韩同盟可能已经大大 削弱。约瑟夫・奈是拯救美日同盟的智慧巨人。 约瑟夫・奈在2024年曾访问日本（2024年11月，东京大手町） 国际政治学者、美国哈佛大学杰出贡献荣誉教授约瑟夫・奈去世。作为知日派学者，约瑟夫・奈 致力于深化美日同盟。在1990年代提出了"软实力"的重要性。不要低估中国的国力。这是他在晚年 留下的警告之一…… 5月6日，国际政治学者、美国哈佛大学杰出贡献荣誉教授约瑟夫・奈（Joseph Nye）去世，享年88 岁。哈佛大学在5月7日公布了消息。作为知日派学者，约瑟夫・奈致力于深化美日同盟。在1990年 代提出了不依赖军事力量等"软实力"的重要性，倡导将其应用于外交政策。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）坂口幸裕 华盛顿报道 约瑟夫・奈：拯救美日同盟的智慧巨人，曾提醒不要低估中国 秋田浩之： 约瑟夫·奈作为提出"软实力"概念的著名学者，这位哈佛大学杰出贡献荣誉教授在 亚太地区所留下的功绩同样不可估量。 在冷战结束后不久的1990年代初期，美国国内曾一度掀起大幅削减驻亚洲美军的呼声。担任 克林顿政府国防部助理部长的 ...

"奈游走在理论研究和政策制定之间，这一经历使他对美国外交政策的运作机制有着独到的见解。"《金 融时报》评论称。报道援引美国前高级情报官员和政策制定者韦德宁的话称，奈既能进行高度理论化的 国际关系思考，又能将其转化为实际政策。 据肯尼迪政府学院创始院长艾利森称，奈最为自豪的是他曾通过双重途径为阻止核战争作出的贡献：既 以学者身份担任"避免核战争"项目联合主席进行智力输出，又以官员角色在克林顿政府中付诸实践。 在学术方面，奈提出的最著名的概念是"软实力"。1990年，他在自己所著的《注定领导世界：美国权力 性质的变迁》一书中创造了"软实力"一词，用来描述国家所具有的除经济及军事力量外的第三方面实 力，主要是文化、价值观、意识形态及民意等方面的影响力。至今"软实力"仍是国际关系专业教科书中 必备的术语。他也是国际关系理论中"新自由主义"学派的代表人物。 【环球时报报道 记者 白云怡 李艾鑫】美国哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院7日发布公报称，学院前院长、美 国知名政治学者约瑟夫·奈于6日去世，享年88岁。据英国《金融时报》、新加坡《联合早报》等媒体报 道，"软实力"概念提出者约瑟夫·奈是国际关系领域最杰出的思想家和实践者之一 ...

Core Insights - The ongoing low international oil prices are significantly impacting Russia's fiscal situation, with the budget deficit expected to rise to 1.7% of GDP, reflecting the broader global energy power dynamics and economic shifts [1][2] Fiscal Impact - Russia's Ministry of Finance has revised its 2025 federal budget revenue forecast down from 40.3 trillion rubles to 38.5 trillion rubles, with the budget deficit projected to increase from 1.1 trillion rubles to 3.7 trillion rubles [1] - The low oil prices are a result of multiple adverse factors, indicating that this trend is likely to continue, putting pressure on Russia's fiscal system as a major energy exporter [1][2] Strategic Responses - Russia is utilizing its National Welfare Fund (NWF) to buffer against oil price shocks, showcasing its ability to convert resource reserves into strategic adjustment tools [2] - The dynamic adjustment of budget rules, allowing the deficit target to be raised from 0.5% to 1.7%, reflects a proactive approach to absorb external shocks, akin to a corporate risk reserve mechanism [2] Market Dynamics - Russia's role in OPEC's production decisions is not passive; by increasing production during low price periods, it aims to gain market share and pressure high-cost competitors like U.S. shale oil producers [2] Demand Diversification - The shift towards energy exports to China and India has increased the share of crude oil exports to China from 14% in 2013 to 35% in 2023, diversifying geopolitical risks and stabilizing demand through long-term agreements [3] Economic Resilience - The share of oil revenue in GDP has decreased from 6.8% to 5.4%, indicating Russia's efforts to cultivate non-energy sectors, such as a 40% increase in agricultural exports, thereby reducing resource dependency [3] Market Sentiment Management - The government has signaled that it can maintain budget balance even with oil prices at $60 per barrel, aiming to manage market expectations and mitigate panic selling [3] Energy Pricing Strategy - Russia is focusing on enhancing its bargaining power in the Asia-Pacific market through infrastructure projects like Arctic LNG and Eastern oil pipelines, while increasing the proportion of transactions settled in rubles [3] Technological Development - The need for breakthroughs in refining technology and low-carbon energy, with a 25% increase in hydrogen energy research investment, is critical for Russia to adapt to global energy transitions [4] Systemic Capability Building - Russia's response strategy has evolved from relying solely on resource endowments to integrating fiscal reserves, restructuring trade networks, and guiding market expectations, which are essential for long-term competitiveness [4]

供应过剩压力加剧。欧佩克联盟近期连续两月大幅增产（日增41.1万桶），远超市场吸收能力，导致布 伦特油价跌至四年低位（每桶65~70美元区间）。沙特通过降价争夺市场份额（亚洲溢价从每桶2.30美 元降至1.20美元），加剧供应端软实力价值稀释，削弱其"油价稳定器"角色。此外，非欧佩克国家（如 美国页岩油）日供应增量达160万桶，进一步压制油价中枢。 需求端结构性疲软。全球贸易战持续冲击工业用油需求，美国制造业PMI跌破荣枯线（49.1）、中国炼 厂开工率低于预期（80%），显示实体经济软实力耗散。关税政策外溢效应间接抑制日均石油需求约 15~20万桶，叠加服务业贸易增长对能源依赖度下降，原油需求弹性显著弱化。 欧佩克战略协调失效。沙特与俄罗斯等国在"限产保价"与"争夺份额"间的矛盾显性化，内部协调机制崩 溃。通过"惩罚性增产"试图强化规则执行，反而暴露战略短视，市场对其信任瓦解。补偿性减产计划 （日减19.6万~52万桶）虽对冲部分增产影响，但未能重建供应端软实力生态。 政策博弈与预期管理失衡。特朗普关税政策从"硬冲击"转向"软约束"，政策不确定性降低但仍抑制需求 预期。美联储鹰派政策推动美元走强，形成"库存 ...

Group 1: Economic Insights - Torsten Slok warns that if the Trump administration continues high tariff policies (average rate rising from 3% to 18%), it could shrink US GDP by 4%, equivalent to erasing California's economy [1] - The current US policies are causing a dual crisis in strategic coordination, with internal governance issues and external trust erosion, undermining the US's soft power as a free trade order maintainer [1] - The decline in US soft power is linked to the over-reliance on hard power tools like tariffs, which accelerates the loss of international discourse power [1] Group 2: Energy Sector Challenges - Falling oil prices are forcing US oil companies to cut production and lay off workers, revealing vulnerabilities in the energy sector's technological reserves and capital resilience [2] - The trend of reduced upstream investment is evident as oil service companies like Baker Hughes cut exploration budgets, stifling technological innovation [2] - The traditional energy giants, such as Chevron, are experiencing profit declines, weakening their ability to dominate industry rules through capital strength [2] Group 3: Financial Market Dynamics - Slok highlights the potential for a "Truss moment" due to soaring US Treasury yields, indicating a crisis in fiscal credit soft power [2] - The market's trust in fiscal discipline is waning, as evidenced by the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.6%, reflecting concerns over long-term fiscal credibility [2] - The current turmoil in the Treasury market underscores the absence of mechanisms for "expectation anchoring" and "risk-sharing" in monetary policy soft power [2] Group 4: Structural Economic Risks - Despite predicting a 0% probability of US recession by 2025, Slok identifies ten significant risks, including a 90% probability of tariff increases and Nvidia's performance falling short of expectations [3] - The over-dependence on a single company (Nvidia) for AI industry narratives poses a risk to innovation leadership, especially if the technological dividend fades [3] - The reliance on government spending for economic growth, with 25% of new jobs coming from the public sector, highlights structural weaknesses in the US economy [3] Group 5: Soft Power Framework - Slok's multidimensional warnings reveal a systematic decline in the US's soft power across strategic resource integration, institutional resilience, and technological leadership [3] - To rebuild soft power, the US must move beyond short-term policy games towards a governance model that includes rule co-construction, technological symbiosis, and debt co-governance [3]

欧佩克战略协调能力的弱化：软实力根基动摇。邓正红软实力思想强调，组织的战略决策能力是其软实 力的核心。欧佩克联盟连续两月意外增产，表面上是通过产量调控（硬实力）争夺市场份额，实则暴露 了其战略协调机制的失效。在需求端因经济衰退风险承压的背景下，此举非但未能稳定市场预期，反而 引发对供应过剩的恐慌，导致油价下行。这种短期利益导向的决策，削弱了欧佩克作为"全球油价稳定 器"的长期信誉，其通过产量政策影响全球能源秩序的软实力遭到质疑。 外部环境冲击：美国政策加速能源软实力稀释。特朗普关税政策引发的全球经济不确定性，进一步放大 了欧佩克决策的负面影响。邓正红指出，软实力的有效性取决于对外部风险的动态适应能力。欧佩克在 需求端收缩时逆势增产，与市场逻辑背离，本质上是未能将美国贸易政策这一变量纳入战略框架，导致 其供给侧调节的软实力工具（产量政策）与经济周期错配。这种战略短视不仅加剧了油价压力，更使能 源领域在全球经济治理中的话语权被稀释。 邓正红软实力表示，欧佩克联盟决定连续第二个月提高产量，石油软实力承压，能源软实力价值稀释， 周一（5月5日）国际油价走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油6月期货结算价 ...