春季关注春耕备货，宠物关注新品动向 [Table_Industry] 农业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 wangyanjun022998@gtjas.com linyidan030085@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880520100002 S0880524090001 本报告导读： 种子：玉米现货价格继续上涨，关注春耕备货。宠物：京宠展召开，看好宠物经济 蓬勃发展，关注国产品牌新品动向。饲料行业：饲料竞争再起。 投资要点： [种业： Table_Summary] 玉米现货价格继续上涨，关注春耕备货 上周玉米现货价格继续上涨，突破 2218 元/吨，延续年初以来的涨 势。2025 年在美国加征关税背景下，我国玉米粮食进口或进一步缩 减，看好 2025 年玉米粮价景气度回升。近期农业农村部发布 19 项 课题目录，包括"保障国家粮食安全的路径选择"、"粮食作物大 面积单产提升瓶颈制约与对策研究"等，体现政策对于粮食安全的 重视。转基因技术应用推动种业格局进一步改善，品种竞争力强、 技术储备领先的公司有望受益。春耕在即，建议关注种子经销商补 货情况，具备强竞争力的品种或在 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The average price of commodity pigs has weakened, with a week-on-week decline of 0.07%, currently at 14.45 CNY/kg. The average price of piglets remained stable after three weeks of decline [8][18] - The planned slaughter volume for March is expected to increase by 2.74% month-on-month, indicating increased market supply pressure [3][27] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on certain agricultural products, which may affect domestic prices and increase costs for downstream industries [4][32] Summary by Sections Commodity Pig Prices - The average price of commodity pigs has decreased by 0.07% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets has remained stable [8][18] - The average weight of commodity pigs at slaughter has increased, with an average of 123.61 kg, up 0.08% week-on-week [26] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of breeding sows has decreased slightly, with a total of 40.62 million sows reported in January, down by 160,000 from the previous month [3][27] - The planned slaughter volume for March is 11.4759 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.74% [3][27] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The average profit for self-bred pigs is 33.56 CNY/head, down by 9.52 CNY from the previous week, while the average loss for purchased piglets is 12.52 CNY/head, a decrease of 21.91 CNY [28] - The price ratio of culling sows to commodity pigs is 0.71, indicating a slight decline from the previous week [18][26] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading companies with scale and cost advantages in pig farming, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe [11][33] - In the poultry sector, consider companies with proprietary white feather chicken breeding sources [11][33]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [61] Core Insights - The report indicates that the supply pressure in the pig farming sector is evident, with a slight increase in pig prices followed by a decline due to restored supply [2][9]. - The white feather broiler market is experiencing price increases, supported by improved slaughter profits and a successful import of breeding stock from France by Yisheng [3][31]. - The 2025 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes food security and technological innovation in agriculture, highlighting the importance of enhancing grain supply capabilities and promoting agricultural technology [39][41]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - March pig slaughter is expected to increase month-on-month, but prices may remain weak due to supply pressures. As of March 7, the national average pig price was 14.45 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.06 CNY/kg week-on-week [2][9]. - Slaughterhouse daily average slaughter volume increased to 140,700 heads, up 3.53% week-on-week, while frozen product inventory rates rose to 15.58%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points [10][24]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased to 127.06 kg, up 0.54 kg week-on-week, indicating a trend of rising weights alongside increased slaughter rates [14][24]. White Feather Broilers - The price of white feather broilers has continued to rise, reaching 6.59 CNY/kg as of March 7, an increase of 0.49 CNY/kg week-on-week, driven by improved market conditions and slaughter profits [3][26]. - Yisheng has successfully imported breeding stock from France, which is expected to strengthen its supply chain amid tight supply conditions for parent stock due to previous import restrictions [31][31]. Seed Industry - The 2025 Central Document emphasizes food security, mentioning "grain" 15 times and outlining measures to enhance grain production and quality [39][41]. - The document introduces the concept of "new agricultural productivity," focusing on the application of technology in agriculture, including biotechnology and artificial intelligence [41][41]. - Investment opportunities are suggested in the areas of biological breeding and smart agriculture, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [41][41].

Core Viewpoint - Several top universities in China, including Tsinghua University, Yunnan University, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, China Agricultural University, and Wuhan University, have announced plans to expand their undergraduate enrollment to meet national strategic needs and enhance the quality of talent cultivation. Group 1: University-Specific Enrollment Plans - Wuhan University plans to increase its undergraduate enrollment by 7,300 students by 2025, focusing on cultivating interdisciplinary talents in artificial intelligence and emerging industries [3]. - China Agricultural University will add 500 undergraduate spots, targeting fields such as food security, biotechnology, and sustainable development [5]. - Shanghai Jiao Tong University aims to expand its enrollment by 150 students, concentrating on critical areas like artificial intelligence, integrated circuits, and renewable energy [7]. - Yunnan University intends to increase its undergraduate enrollment by 300 students, emphasizing science, agriculture, and medical fields to address talent shortages [9]. - Tsinghua University plans to add approximately 150 undergraduate spots, establishing a new general education college to foster interdisciplinary talents [10]. Group 2: National Higher Education Expansion Goals - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to increase the enrollment of "Double First-Class" universities by 20,000 students this year, following a previous increase of 16,000 students last year [12].

| 证券代码：300021 | 证券简称：大禹节水 | 公告编号：2025－016 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：123063 | 转债简称：大禹转债 | | 大禹节水集团股份有限公司 关于联合体预中标四川省会理市横山水库智慧水网（南部灌区）建 设项目特许经营的公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误 导性陈述或重大遗漏。 2025 年 2 月 20 日 ， 四 川 省 公 共 资 源 交 易 信息网 （https://ggzyjy.sc.gov.cn/）发布《会理市横山水库智慧水网（南部灌区） 建设项目特许经营评标结果公示》，大禹节水集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公 司"）全资子公司甘肃大禹节水集团水利水电工程有限责任公司与四川水发建设 有限公司（联合体牵头人）组成的联合体成为会理市横山水库智慧水网（南部灌 区）建设项目特许经营（以下简称"本项目"）第一中标候选人。 根据联合体协议约定，水电公司负责所占股权比例对应的资本金注入，配合 项目融资工作，承担本项目的建设、运营维护工作。水电公司实际承担本项目建 设内容以联合体签订的有关最终承包建设协 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - Recent trade frictions have raised concerns about economic growth, leading to downward pressure on oil prices, while leading stocks remain weak. The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong fundamentals and low correlation to oil prices for bottom-fishing opportunities. Additionally, the importance of food security has increased due to global instability, making agricultural and food supply chains more resilient. The report anticipates sustained economic improvement and upward elasticity from supply-side adjustments [11] Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices Information - As of February 14, Brent oil price increased by 0.1% to $74.74 per barrel. Concerns over U.S. sanctions on certain oil-producing countries initially pushed prices up, but an increase in U.S. commercial oil inventories and easing geopolitical tensions led to a price retraction. As of February 7, U.S. commercial oil inventories stood at 427.9 million barrels, a weekly increase of 4.1 million barrels [12] - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases this week were petroleum coke (up 24.0%), natural gas (up 12.5%), and acetone (up 7.6%). The top three price decreases were liquid chlorine (down 26.9%), threonine (down 14.0%), and vitamin B2 (down 6.3%) [13] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Recommended companies include: - Wanhua Chemical: Core product MDI shows recent profit improvement, with upcoming petrochemical and new material projects expected to launch [11] - Huangma Technology: A leading special polyether company that has entered a growth phase again after addressing previous macro demand pressures [11] - Jinhui Industrial: A leader in maltol and sucralose, with signs of marginal improvement in core product conditions [11] - Yuntianhua: A leading company in the domestic phosphate chemical industry, with sustained demand for phosphate rock [11]

周期，周期，还是周期！ 作者 | 萧瑟 编辑 | 小白 农林牧渔可以说是与春节关系最为紧密的行业，毕竟春节时间节点的确定依据正是古时的农业历法。 农业社会中，春节往往被视作是新一轮生产周期起始的标志。而人们在此时进行的各种庆祝习俗，也 有祈愿新的一年风调雨顺、农业丰收的寓意。 但在二级市场，2024年对于农业来讲并不是一个友好的年份。申万农林牧渔指数全年下跌11.6%，不 仅跑输上证指数24.2pct，更是在31个行业中排在倒数第二。 从行业名字中我们也能感受到，农林牧渔业态繁多，包含种植、养殖、捕捞等，仅用单一指数很难对 下跌原因一以概之。 因此我们还是按老规矩，聚焦到前十大市值公司来逐个剖析。 有意思的是，从这十家公司的股价表现看，倒是很难感受到行业整体的颓势，甚至其中还有接近翻倍 的个股。 | 公司名称 | 2024年末市值(亿元) | 全年涨跌幅 | 二级行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 2099.9 | J. 4.7% | 养殖业(申万) | | 金龙鱼 | 1768.0 | 2.0% | 农产品加工(申万) | | 温氏股份 | 1098.6 | J ...