来源：广州日报 昨日（1月15日）一系列经济数据以及多位美联储官员"不急于降息"的表态，都打压了市场此前对美联 储今年可能多次降息的乐观预期，黄金市场出现明显的获利了结交易，国际金价周四下跌。截至收盘， 纽约商品交易所2月交割的黄金期价收于每盎司4623.70美元，跌幅为0.26%；另一方面，美国白宫方面 表示暂缓对包括白银在内的关键矿物征收关税，令贵金属和工业金属整体承压，白银期价周四大幅波动 后小幅收涨。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所3月交割的白银期价收于每盎司92.347美元，涨幅为1.05%。 （央视财经） ...

"国内首只千亿级黄金ETF诞生，资金持续流入主要源于多重逻辑支撑。"排排网财富公募产品运营曾 方芳分析指出，一是地缘局势与通胀不确定性强化黄金避险属性；二是美联储降息周期、美元信用弱化及 全球央行购金潮构成长期利好；三是黄金与股债低相关性可改善投资组合夏普比；四是黄金ETF具备低成 本、高透明、易交易等优势，降低了投资门槛；五是在去美元化趋势下，其作为价值储存工具的战略意义 日益凸显，受到机构与个人资金的共同认可。 对于普通投资者而言，当前是否适合配置黄金ETF成为关注焦点。对此，曾方芳认为，当前可将黄金 ETF作为中长期配置的选项，但需注意理性布局。她建议，将黄金作为资产组合中的风险对冲工具，低仓 位配置。在操作上，应采取逢低逐步配置的策略，着眼于长期持有，而非短期交易。在选择具体产品时， 除了产品规模，还应重点关注其跟踪误差、综合费率及流动性等关键指标。 不过，曾方芳也提醒关注多重风险：黄金价格短期可能出现的高位波动与回调风险、宏观政策或地缘 局势变化引发的行情转折风险，以及部分ETF因交易价格偏离净值而可能产生的溢价回落风险。 据Wind数据，全市场共计13只黄金主题ETF，合计基金最新规模超2500亿 ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up by 0.6%, the S&P 500 up by 0.26%, and the Nasdaq up by 0.25% [1] - The Dow closed at 49,442.44, the Nasdaq at 23,530.02, and the S&P 500 at 6,944.47 [2] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Nvidia rising over 2% while Google fell nearly 1% [2] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 1.76%, reaching a new historical high, with notable gains from companies like Kioxia Semiconductor (up over 7%), ASML (up over 5%), TSMC (up over 4%), and AMD (up nearly 2%) [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 0.6%, with significant drops in stocks such as Brain Rebirth (down over 14%), Tencent Music (down nearly 5%), and Kingsoft Cloud (down over 4%) [3] - Conversely, companies like Hesai Technology (up over 7%) and Bawang Tea (up nearly 4%) saw gains [3] Commodities - Gold and silver prices fell, with spot gold down 0.24% to $4,615.5 per ounce and spot silver down 0.79% to $92.4 per ounce [3] - International oil prices saw a significant drop, with both WTI and Brent crude oil falling over 4%, with WTI closing at $59.19 per barrel [3] Regulatory News - The US Treasury Department announced sanctions against multiple individuals and entities related to Iran's oil and petrochemical exports [3] - The US military reported the seizure of an oil tanker in the Caribbean, marking the sixth such seizure since late 2025 [3] Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrencies experienced a collective decline, with Bitcoin dropping below $96,000, currently priced at $95,511 per coin, and over 120,000 traders liquidated in the past 24 hours [3][4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is at 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is at 95% [4] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 20.8%, with a 78.4% chance of no change [4] Economic Insights - Despite potential negative impacts from US tariffs, the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts in late 2025, along with tax reductions and deregulation, may benefit employment and income growth [5] - The effects of previous rate cuts typically take 3 to 6 months to manifest, indicating that unless there is significant deterioration in employment or a notable decrease in inflation, rate cuts in the first quarter are unlikely [5]

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.6%, S&P 500 up 0.26%, and Nasdaq up 0.25% [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.76%, reaching a historical high, with notable gains in semiconductor stocks such as Skyworks Solutions up over 7%, ASML up over 5%, and TSMC up over 4% [1] Company Earnings - TSMC reported a significant 35% year-over-year increase in net profit for Q4, setting a new historical high and exceeding market expectations, with a gross margin of 62.3% [2] Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrencies experienced a collective decline, with Bitcoin dropping below $96,000, currently at $95,511, and over 120,000 individuals facing liquidation in the past 24 hours [3][4] Oil Market - International oil prices saw a significant drop, with both WTI and Brent crude oil falling over 4%, with WTI closing below $60 at $59.19 per barrel [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is at 5%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is at 95% [4]

Market Overview - The US stock indices experienced slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.6%, S&P 500 up 0.26%, and Nasdaq up 0.25% [1] - Major technology stocks showed mixed results, with Nvidia rising over 2% and Google falling nearly 1% [2] Semiconductor Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 1.76%, reaching a historical high, with notable gains from companies like Kioxia (over 7%), ASML (over 5%), TSMC (over 4%), and AMD (nearly 2%) [2] - Texas Instruments fell over 2%, while Qualcomm and Marvell Technology dropped over 1% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined by 0.6%, with significant drops in stocks like Brain Rejuvenation (over 14%), Tencent Music (nearly 5%), and Kingsoft Cloud (over 4%) [3] - Conversely, companies like Hesai Technology rose over 7%, and Bawang Tea and Canadian Solar saw increases of nearly 4% and over 3%, respectively [3] Commodity Prices - Gold and silver prices decreased, with spot gold down 0.24% to $4615.5 per ounce and spot silver down 0.79% to $92.4 per ounce [3] - International oil prices saw a significant drop, with WTI crude oil falling over 4% to $59.19 per barrel [3] Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrencies experienced a collective decline, with Bitcoin dropping below $96,000 to $95,511 per coin, marking a 1.99% decrease [4][5] - Over 120,000 individuals faced liquidation in the past 24 hours due to market volatility [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is at 5%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is 95% [5] - By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 20.8%, with a 78.4% chance of no change [5] - Economic expert analysis suggests that despite potential negative impacts from tariffs, upcoming rate cuts and government policies may improve employment and income growth [6]

Core Viewpoint - The rebound in consumer data for November is expected due to the convergence of tariff policies and government shutdown impacts, aligning with the traditional consumption peak season [5][6] - The retail sales growth rate for November was recorded at +0.6%, surpassing the market expectation of +0.4% [6] Economic Outlook - Three reasons support a positive outlook for the first quarter of 2026 U.S. economic data: 1. The impact of government shutdown on the economy may lead to a low base effect, benefiting GDP growth in Q1 2026 2. The IRS will initiate concentrated tax refunds in Q1 2026, potentially boosting GDP growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points 3. The probability of another government shutdown at the end of January is currently estimated at 30%, considered a low probability event [5][7] Interest Rate Outlook - The company maintains the view that the pace of interest rate cuts will be delayed, with the Federal Reserve remaining cautious in the short term. The pace of cuts may accelerate after the new Federal Reserve Chair takes office [5][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is currently little reason for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, as the existing policy stance does not appear overly restrictive [1] - Lowering interest rates could hinder the progress of controlling inflation and would not benefit the labor market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of China's first gold ETF with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan coincides with international gold prices surpassing $4600 per ounce, indicating strong investor interest in gold as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Gold ETF Market Development - The Huashan Gold ETF has reached a circulation scale of 100.76 billion yuan, making it the largest gold ETF in Asia [1][2]. - The total market scale of 14 gold ETFs in China has reached 263.44 billion yuan, with significant inflows into other ETFs such as Bosera Gold ETF and E Fund Gold ETF [2]. - The development of gold ETFs in China began in 2009, with the first product, Huashan Gold ETF, launched in July 2013 [2]. Group 2: Adjustments in ETF Operations - Several fund companies are adjusting their physical subscription and redemption mechanisms to enhance liquidity and risk management due to the surge in gold prices [3][4]. - E Fund announced a temporary suspension of subscriptions for its gold ETF starting January 16, with a reduction in the minimum subscription unit from 300,000 to 100,000 shares [3][4]. - The adjustment to unify the physical gold contract for subscriptions to Au99.99 is aimed at improving liquidity and ensuring fair pricing for all investors [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook on Gold Prices - Multiple public funds remain optimistic about the continued rise in gold prices, citing factors such as the ongoing Federal Reserve rate cut cycle and increasing global uncertainties [5][6]. - The trend of de-dollarization and geopolitical tensions are expected to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with predictions of gold becoming a new pricing anchor [6]. - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on medium-term allocations rather than short-term speculation due to increased volatility in the gold market [6].

Lower borrowing costs in 2026 may have seemed like a foregone conclusion last month, but a few experts have begun casting doubt on that assumption. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book for 2026 presents a neutral to optimistic outlook, indicating signs of economic recovery in the U.S. since the previous report in November 2025, with 8 out of 12 Federal Reserve districts showing slight or moderate growth [1][6]. Economic Activity - In the latest Beige Book, 8 districts reported economic activity growing slightly or moderately, while 3 reported little change and 1 reported a slight decline [1][6]. - Compared to the previous Beige Book, which noted little change in economic activity, the current report suggests a clear recovery from the government shutdown's impact in late 2025 [1][6]. Labor Market - The labor market remains stable, with 8 out of 12 districts reporting no changes in hiring [3][8]. - The non-farm payroll data for December shows an increase of 50,000 jobs, down from 56,000 in the previous month and below the average of 100,000 jobs prior to May 2025 [3][8]. - Factors such as aggressive immigration policies and the rise of artificial intelligence have significantly impacted the labor market, leading to a sharp decline in job numbers since May 2025 [3][8]. Inflation - Businesses expect a slowdown in price increases, but prices are anticipated to remain high, which is a critical factor for the Fed's interest rate decisions [4][11]. - Historical data indicates that the probability of sustained inflation decline is higher than that of sustained increases, with core CPI remaining at 2.6% in November and December 2025 [4][11]. - Following the Beige Book's release, the dollar index closed with a bearish candlestick, indicating a short-term consolidation phase, but the neutral optimism suggests potential for a continued upward trend in the dollar index [4][5][11].