Core Insights - The recent strong performance of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, including a weaker US dollar, improved domestic asset attractiveness, and supportive policy signals from the central bank [2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - On October 28, both onshore and offshore RMB broke the 7.10 mark against the US dollar, reaching the highest level since November of the previous year [1]. - As of October 29, the offshore RMB was reported at 7.097, down 0.02%, while the onshore RMB was at 7.099, up 0.02% [1]. - Year-to-date, the offshore RMB has appreciated by 3.3%, and the onshore RMB has increased by 2.7%, both exceeding 2000 basis points [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving RMB Strength - The depreciation of the US dollar index by 9% this year has created an environment for non-US currencies, including the RMB, to appreciate [2]. - Key drivers for the RMB's recent strength include: 1. A weaker US dollar providing an external window for appreciation. 2. Increased attractiveness of domestic assets, with strong performance in the A-share market attracting global capital inflows. 3. A resilient export performance contributing to trade surpluses that support the currency [2]. - The People's Bank of China has been signaling a stable to strong RMB through adjustments in the central parity rate, which has influenced market behavior [2]. Group 3: Corporate Responses to Exchange Rate Fluctuations - Companies are actively managing exchange rate risks, as evidenced by Yuxin Co.'s announcement to engage in foreign exchange hedging activities with a limit of up to 3 billion RMB or equivalent foreign currency [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - Analysts suggest that domestic fundamentals will continue to support the RMB, with a high sensitivity to growth-promoting policies [3]. - There is an expectation that pent-up demand for currency conversion may be released as the RMB appreciates, further supporting its value [3]. - The central bank is well-equipped with policy tools to manage exchange rate expectations flexibly [3].

Group 1 - The interbank foreign exchange market showed stable trading with a slight month-on-month increase in daily average trading volume, reaching $192.26 billion, although it experienced a year-on-year decline of 4.4% [2] - The daily average trading volume for the RMB foreign exchange market was $143.50 billion, down 7.7% year-on-year but up 5.5% month-on-month, primarily due to a decrease in spot volatility leading to subdued spot trading [2] Group 2 - The US dollar index rebounded after hitting a year-low of 96.22, influenced by a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve despite a 25 basis point rate cut [3] - By the end of September, the dollar index closed at 97.7750, remaining stable compared to the previous month [3] Group 3 - The RMB exchange rate reached a new high for the year at 7.1019 before slightly retreating, closing at 7.1186 at the end of the month, reflecting a 0.17% appreciation for the month [4] - The CFETS RMB index against a basket of currencies reported an appreciation of 0.21% compared to the previous month [4] Group 4 - The domestic foreign exchange differential shifted from positive to negative, with an average daily differential of -4 basis points for the month, indicating a stronger selling pressure in the first half of the month [5] - The maximum differential recorded was -97 basis points on the 26th, marking the largest differential for the month [5] Group 5 - The implied volatility of RMB foreign exchange options continued to decline, with the 1-month ATM implied volatility dropping to 2.3%, the lowest since August 2024 [6] - The overall market sentiment regarding the RMB exchange rate has warmed, contributing to the decrease in volatility [6] Group 6 - The trading volume of RMB foreign exchange swaps was active, with a daily average of $93.20 billion, up 8.9% month-on-month, driven mainly by state-owned banks [7] - The 1-year swap points reached a new high in two and a half years at -1322 basis points, reflecting a significant increase of 261 basis points from the previous month [7][8] Group 7 - The US dollar liquidity remained loose, with the SOFR rate fluctuating around 4.40% before rising to a year-high of 4.51% mid-month, then declining to 4.14% after the Fed's rate cut [9][10] - The domestic dollar borrowing rates decreased following the Fed's rate cut, with the overnight borrowing rate stabilizing at 4.06% by the end of the month [9][10]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 18.4% from November 2024 to September 2025, reaching a new high of over 3900 points in October, the highest in 10 years [1] - The average daily trading volume of stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen was approximately 2.3 trillion yuan since August, significantly higher than the average of about 700 billion yuan during the same period last year [1] - The yield on 10-year government bonds remained stable between 1.75% and 1.85%, reversing the rapid decline seen in 2024 [1] Currency and Capital Flow - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the USD have stabilized around 7.1 to 7.2 since June, indicating balanced cross-border capital flows [1] Bond Market Dynamics - Despite a general outflow from credit bond ETFs, the Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) saw an increase in scale by 102 million yuan, attributed to its short duration (1.94 years), high static yield (1.95%), minimal discount (weekly average -0.02%), and low drawdown (-0.50% year-to-date) [1] - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) ranked first in controlling drawdown since the bond market adjustment, maintaining a relatively stable net value [1] Recent Market Trends - The bond market experienced fluctuations influenced by expectations surrounding US-China negotiations, anticipated interest rate cuts, delays in new fund redemption regulations, and policy expectations from the Fourth Plenary Session [1] - The credit performance in the bond market outperformed interest rates, with short-term credit spreads compressing to historically low levels [3] Credit Yield and Spread Analysis - As of October 24, 2025, the yield on various credit bonds showed a range of values, with AAA-rated bonds yielding between 1.67% and 2.12% for different maturities [4] - The credit spreads for AAA-rated bonds were recorded at 0.11% for 0.5-year bonds, indicating a very low risk premium [4]

截至最新发稿时间9时40分，在岸人民币对美元报7.0985，日内升值0.01%；离岸人民币对美元报 7.0952。 北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）10月29日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间 外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0843元，相较前一交易日中间价7.0856元，调升13个基 点。 ...

Core Points - The central exchange rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is reported at 7.0843, which is an increase of 13 basis points from the previous trading day [1] Exchange Rate Summary - As of October 29, 2025, the exchange rates are as follows: - 1 USD = 7.0843 CNY - 1 EUR = 8.2582 CNY - 100 JPY = 4.6613 CNY - 1 HKD = 0.91200 CNY - 1 GBP = 9.4071 CNY - 1 AUD = 4.6663 CNY - 1 NZD = 4.0986 CNY - 1 SGD = 5.4799 CNY - 1 CHF = 8.9342 CNY - 1 CAD = 5.0836 CNY - 1 MOP = 1.1299 CNY - 1 MYR = 0.59143 CNY - 1 RUB = 11.1671 CNY - 1 ZAR = 2.4201 CNY - 1 KRW = 201.92 CNY - 1 AED = 0.51817 CNY - 1 SAR = 0.52909 CNY - 1 HUF = 46.9903 CNY - 1 PLN = 0.51219 CNY - 1 DKK = 0.9042 CNY - 1 SEK = 1.3226 CNY - 1 NOK = 1.4080 CNY - 1 TRY = 5.91825 CNY - 1 MXN = 2.6007 CNY - 1 THB = 4.5614 CNY [2]

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The upcoming "Super Central Bank Week" will see the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan announcing their interest rate decisions, with expectations of diverging monetary policies [1] - The Federal Reserve is highly likely to cut rates by 25 basis points, with a 97.8% probability according to the CME FedWatch Tool, driven by weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data [2] - The European Central Bank and Bank of Japan are expected to maintain their current rates, with the ECB possibly having ended its rate-cutting cycle and the BoJ facing political pressures that may delay normalization [4][5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation data showed a 3% year-over-year increase in September CPI, which is below market expectations, indicating lower inflationary pressures [2] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a reported decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector in September, the largest drop since March 2023 [2] - The Japanese economy is experiencing a gradual recovery in inflation, but internal demand and productivity improvements remain insufficient [4] Group 3: Currency Market Reactions - The divergence in monetary policies among major central banks is impacting the global currency market, with the U.S. dollar index rising by 0.39% last week [7] - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 1.5% against the U.S. dollar, influenced by expectations of a slower normalization of monetary policy under the new Japanese Prime Minister [7] - The Chinese yuan is expected to remain stable, with the central parity rate against the U.S. dollar reported at 7.0856, indicating a slight appreciation [8]

Core Insights - The recent adjustment of the RMB to USD exchange rate indicates a stronger trend, with the central parity rate reported at 7.0856 on October 28, marking a rise of 25 basis points from the previous trading day and the highest since October 15, 2024 [1] - The RMB has appreciated by 1023 basis points since the beginning of the year, reflecting a stronger domestic economic performance and a significant decline in the USD [1] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reached 97.55, the BIS currency basket index was at 103.64, and the SDR currency basket index was at 91.91, all hitting new highs since April [1] Group 1 - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1006, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 2.73%, while the offshore RMB reached a high of 7.0954, reflecting a year-to-date rise of about 3.26% [2] - Factors contributing to the RMB's strength include a weak USD environment, the central bank's stable exchange rate policies, and strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment [2] - The outlook suggests that the RMB will continue to operate in a strong state, with a focus on the USD's movements and the central bank's control over the RMB's central parity [2] Group 2 - The domestic economic fundamentals are expected to provide a supportive role for the RMB exchange rate, with pent-up demand for currency conversion potentially being released as the RMB appreciates [3] - The central bank has sufficient tools to stabilize the exchange rate and is expected to adjust policy flexibly to mitigate unilateral market expectations regarding the exchange rate [3]

东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，整体上看，近期在美元指数震荡上行、全球汇市波动加大过程中，人民币中间价向偏强方向调整力 度有所加大。这或与年初以来国内经济走势偏强，美元大幅下跌，而人民币对美元汇价尽管有所升值，但未能与之充分匹配有关。这意 味当前稳汇率的重心正在向稳定CFETS等一篮子人民币汇率指数转移。另外，当前外部环境波动有所加大，人民币汇价稳中有升，也有 助于缓解贸易摩擦，为我国外贸企业提供稳定的外部环境。 最新数据显示，三大人民币汇率指数均创4月以来新高。据中国外汇交易中心，10月24日当周，CFETS人民币汇率指数报97.55，环比涨 0.47；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报103.64，环比涨0.57；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报91.91，环比涨0.42。 中金外汇认为，目前人民币汇率升值预期较为稳固，外汇市场供求将继续在内外部因素的综合影响下趋于平衡。本周，美国将发布9月耐 用品订单和9月PCE价格指数等经济数据，并将召开FOMC议息会议。中国将公布9月工业企业利润和10月PMI等经济数据。目前市场预期 美联储将在此次会议上降息一次，中美经贸关系将保持稳定。预计人民币汇率仍有望保持偏强波动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is attributed to three main factors: economic fundamentals, differences in monetary policy between China and the US, and improved market confidence [3][4]. Economic Fundamentals - In September, China's export growth reached a six-month high, and there has been a structural recovery in prices, indicating a gradual improvement in domestic demand [3]. - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 500 billion yuan in local government debt limits aims to alleviate existing debt and expand effective investment, providing internal support for the yuan's exchange rate [3]. Monetary Policy Differences - The anticipated reversal in US monetary policy is a significant external driver, with a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October and a cumulative 50 basis point cut expected by December [3]. - The US dollar index has faced continuous pressure, with an 8.8% decline year-to-date, marking its worst performance since 1973, which has alleviated external pressure on the yuan [3]. Market Confidence - Recent US-China trade negotiations have reached a basic consensus, reducing uncertainties related to trade friction, which has boosted market confidence [4]. - The 20th Central Committee's fourth plenary session outlined an economic development blueprint, enhancing the attractiveness of yuan-denominated assets, leading to a reduction in offshore yuan short positions by some foreign hedge funds [4].

Core Viewpoint - The onshore Renminbi (RMB) has shown a slight appreciation against the US dollar, indicating a stable domestic economic environment and sensitivity to growth-promoting policies [1] Exchange Rate Summary - On October 28, the onshore RMB opened at 7.1070 against the US dollar, up from the previous day's close of 7.1109 [1] - The offshore RMB was reported at 7.10570 as of 9:40 AM [1] - The RMB central parity rate was set at 7.0856, an increase of 25 basis points from the previous day [1] Dollar Index Summary - The US dollar index fluctuated below the 99 mark, reported at 98.6871 as of 9:40 AM [1] Market Outlook Summary - Citic Securities anticipates that the domestic economic fundamentals will primarily support the RMB exchange rate, which remains sensitive to policies aimed at promoting growth [1] - If the RMB continues to appreciate, there may be a release of pent-up demand for foreign exchange settlements, further supporting the RMB [1] - The central bank has sufficient tools to stabilize the exchange rate, and its operations in 2026 are expected to be a significant factor influencing RMB exchange rate expectations [1]