Economic Overview - China's GDP for the first half of 2025 grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with fixed asset investment increasing by 2.8%, while real estate development investment fell by 11.2% [3] - The second quarter's growth was supported by "old-for-new" subsidies and stable export growth, but challenges remain in real estate and consumption, necessitating ongoing policy support [3] Equity Market Insights - CITIC Securities suggests that the current market conditions present an opportunity to increase allocations to Hong Kong stocks, particularly in low-priced manufacturing sectors, as the "anti-involution" narrative continues [5] - Guolian Minsheng notes that the current macro environment differs significantly from 2015, with a lack of substantial stable capital inflow, suggesting a weaker market performance compared to previous years [6] - Galaxy Securities anticipates a preference for large-cap stocks in the second half of 2025, with value stocks gaining favor due to stable returns and support from traditional industries [8] Industry Research - In the humanoid robot sector, Invesco Great Wall Fund highlights a significant breakthrough with a 124 million yuan order, indicating a shift towards large-scale commercialization, with the global market expected to reach $20 billion by 2030 [13] - Tianhong Fund emphasizes the improving fundamentals of the military industry, with a focus on upcoming military parades showcasing new equipment, suggesting a favorable investment environment [14] - Galaxy Fund points to the expansion of AI computing power driving demand in the communications sector, with a positive outlook for related electronic components [15] Macro and Fixed Income - Galaxy Fund indicates that long-term interest rates may have room to decline due to economic pressures, recommending attention to key negotiation points between China and the U.S. [21] - Morgan Fund predicts a volatile downward trend in the bond market for the second half of 2025, advising on optimizing investment portfolios in a low-interest environment [22] - 富国基金 suggests a stable yet changing bond market, with expectations of a prolonged low-interest rate environment impacting future investment strategies [23] Asset Allocation Strategies - E Fund recommends a balanced approach to equity and bond investments, highlighting the importance of flexibility in response to market volatility and strong consensus expectations [25][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [7][13]. Core Views - The signing of a significant procurement agreement for a complete equipment system, valued at 879 million yuan, marks a pivotal moment for the company, establishing it as a key supplier for national defense projects and reflecting the government's trust in its capabilities [3][4]. - The company has transitioned from following to leading in the complete equipment system sector, with broad domestic and international market potential, which is expected to enhance its influence in military trade [5]. - The company anticipates a substantial increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projected between 150 million to 190 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 735% to 957% due to the resumption of delayed projects and expansion into civilian product markets [6][7]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 5.068 billion yuan, 6.070 billion yuan, and 7.720 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 668 million yuan, 854 million yuan, and 1.245 billion yuan [9][12]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 65, 51, and 35 times, respectively, indicating a potential for significant earnings growth [7][9].

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) has shown strong performance, with significant inflows and a notable procurement agreement in the eVTOL sector, indicating a bullish outlook for the aerospace industry [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - As of July 17, 2025, the aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) increased by 3.19%, with a trading volume of 83.39 million yuan and a turnover rate of 20.71% [2]. - The latest scale of the aerospace ETF Tianhong reached 395 million yuan, with a total of 360 million shares, both hitting record highs since inception [2]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 24.46 million yuan over the past four days, indicating strong investor interest [2]. Group 2: Industry Developments - On July 16, a procurement agreement worth 1 billion USD was signed between UAE's Autocraft and China's Shide Technology for 350 units of E20eVTOL, marking the largest single eVTOL order in China to date [2]. - The agreement is expected to deliver the first batch of orders after obtaining the airworthiness certificate from the Civil Aviation Administration of China [2]. Group 3: Military Trade Insights - China Aviation Industry Corporation (AVIC) has emphasized military trade as a core business, establishing a dedicated committee to streamline decision-making processes [3]. - Analysts predict that geopolitical conflicts will enhance the valuation of Chinese military enterprises, with a focus on military trade and new defense industry opportunities [3]. - The military industry is expected to see a gradual recovery in performance in Q2 2025, with an optimistic outlook for industry prosperity [3]. Group 4: ETF Investment Strategy - The aerospace ETF Tianhong closely tracks the National Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index, focusing on key sectors such as fighter jets and satellite industries [4]. - The ETF's constituent companies are well-positioned to benefit from emerging themes like commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy [4]. Group 5: Index Highlights - The index has a high "military content," with 96.24% of its constituents belonging to the defense and military industry, surpassing other military indices [5]. - It also leads in "drone content," featuring companies deeply involved in drone technology, making it the highest in the market [6]. - The index covers the aerospace industry chain comprehensively, with over 73% weight in aviation and aerospace equipment [7]. - The index constituents exhibit stronger technological attributes, aligning with the trend of high-end development in the military and aerospace sectors, achieving a return of 31.68% over the past year [8]. - The forecasted revenue growth for the index in 2025 is projected at 42.73%, exceeding traditional military indices [9].

Core Insights - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation-Driven Index (000861) has seen a 0.25% increase as of July 11, 2025, with notable stock performances from China Shipbuilding (600150) up 7.38% and Shengke Communication (688702) up 5.43% [3] - China Shipbuilding has forecasted a net profit of 2.8 billion to 3.1 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 98.25% to 119.49% due to favorable industry conditions and improved order structure [3] - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation-Driven ETF (515900) has reached a new high of 3.38 billion yuan in scale, ranking in the top quarter among comparable funds [4] Performance Metrics - The Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation-Driven ETF has achieved a 6.05% net value increase over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 15.05% since inception [4] - The ETF has a historical holding probability of 97.51% for profit over three years, with an average monthly return of 3.97% during up months [4] - As of July 10, 2025, the ETF has a tracking error of 0.037% over the past five years, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [5] Sector Insights - The defense and military industry is experiencing strong performance, driven by geopolitical tensions and the establishment of a low-altitude economy working group, with positive developments expected in military trade and commercial aerospace [4] - Despite high overall industry valuation levels, specific sectors like marine equipment remain at historical lows, presenting structural investment opportunities [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Central State-Owned Enterprises Innovation-Driven Index account for 34.87% of the index, with key players including Hikvision (002415) and China Shipbuilding (600150) [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates military trade revenue of approximately 1.4 billion this year, driven by changing international circumstances and the introduction of new products [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Product Development - The market demand is gradually recovering due to changes in international situations and the launch of new products [1] - The company's new products, Wing Loong-1G and Wing Loong-X, have received military trade export approvals and are actively being promoted in the market [1] - The export certification process for several drones weighing under 1,000 kg is also being vigorously advanced, enhancing the company's competitiveness in military trade [1] Group 2: Revenue Projections - Based on the company's initial related transaction estimates, military trade revenue is expected to be around 1.4 billion this year [1] - The company expects a stable growth trend in military trade revenue over the next few years [1]

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing adjustments, with the defense military ETF (512810) showing fluctuations, including a drop of over 1% before narrowing its losses [1] - The ETF has seen significant inflows, with over 1.68 billion yuan invested in the past 10 days, indicating strong bullish sentiment despite recent declines [1] - Among the 80 constituent stocks of the ETF, most have declined, with notable drops including Changcheng Military Industry down nearly 7% and Guorui Technology down over 3% [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the upcoming mid-year report season may bring uncertainty regarding the performance of previously high-profile stocks, leading to potential short-term differentiation [3] - Huafu Securities maintains a bullish outlook on the sector, while Zhonghang Securities believes the defense military industry is in a state with ample upward potential and limited downside risk [3] - Zhejiang Merchants Securities highlights three main investment themes for the defense military sector by 2025: military trade, new domains and qualities, and restructuring [3] Group 3 - The defense military ETF (512810) has undergone a share split, reducing the trading threshold from approximately 120 yuan to around 60 yuan, making it more accessible for investors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) has shown strong market performance with significant inflows and a focus on the military and aerospace sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 8, 2025, the aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) closed up 0.54% with a turnover rate of 18.37%, leading its category, and had a total transaction volume of 605.219 million yuan, reflecting active market trading [3] - The ETF has seen a net subscription of 2.7 million shares today, with its latest scale reaching 329 million yuan and total shares at 298 million, both hitting a one-month high as of July 7, 2025 [3] Group 2: Fund Inflows and Events - The aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) has experienced continuous net inflows over the past eight days, totaling 155 million yuan [4] - The first National Defense Science and Technology Industry Cultural and Creative Industry Expo will be held from September 29 to October 4 in Wuhan, showcasing significant military technology innovations [4] - The "Liqian No. 2" rocket is set for its maiden flight in September 2025, with a payload capacity of 12 tons to low Earth orbit, indicating advancements in commercial space capabilities [4] Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, the military industry is expected to experience a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations, with military trade reshaping the global landscape and opening up significant growth opportunities [4] - Zhongyou Securities anticipates a turning point in military orders as the "Centenary of the Army Building" goals progress, highlighting new market directions driven by technological advancements [5] Group 4: ETF Characteristics - The aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) closely tracks the National Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index, focusing on key sectors such as aircraft and satellite industries, aligning with emerging themes like low-altitude economy and commercial space [5] - The index has a "military content" of 96.24%, surpassing other military indices, indicating a strong focus on defense [6] - The index also leads in "drone content," featuring companies deeply involved in drone technology, making it the highest in the market [7] - The index covers over 73% of aerospace and aviation equipment, marking it as the highest in "aerospace content" among military indices [8] - The index's technology attributes are stronger, with a one-year performance return of 31.68%, outperforming traditional military indices [9] - Revenue growth for the National Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index is projected at 42.73% for 2025, exceeding traditional military indices [10]

Group 1 - The Aerospace ETF Tianhong (159241) experienced a volatile trading session, with a slight increase of 0.09% and a turnover rate of 12.47%, achieving a transaction volume exceeding 410 million yuan [1] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 1.99 million yuan on July 7, marking the eighth consecutive trading day of net inflows, totaling 155 million yuan [1] - As of July 7, the latest circulating scale of the Aerospace ETF Tianhong reached 329 million yuan, with a circulating share of 298 million, both hitting historical highs [1] Group 2 - The National Aerospace Index has shown higher elasticity compared to other indices like General Aviation and the China Securities Defense Index, indicating a promising outlook for the aerospace sector [2] - Key investment themes in the defense and military industry include military trade, new domains and qualities, and restructuring, with a focus on core assets and low asset securitization rates in military state-owned enterprises [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The aerospace and defense industry is driven by multiple factors, including the 14th Five - Year Plan, the development of military intelligence, and the growth of military trade. It has long - term growth potential and short - term catalysts [3][8][11][17][32]. - The aerospace and aviation sectors are the two core areas to focus on, with increasing downstream demand in high - end fighter jets, aero - engines, and related supporting materials [40]. - The Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index has strong industry theme attributes, high elasticity, and relatively stable fundamentals, making it a representative military - related index [3][68][83][88]. - The Aerospace and Aviation ETF Tianhong (159241) closely tracks the Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index, with low management and custody fees, and shows good performance in terms of share growth and liquidity compared to comparable ETFs [3][94][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Multiple Logics Driving the Rapid Development of the Industry and Grasping the Two Main Lines of Aerospace and Aviation 3.1.1 Multiple Logics Supporting the Military Fundamentals and the Industry's Long - term Growth - The 14th Five - Year Plan is in its critical period, promoting the transformation of "point - like orders" to "line - like orders", and factory performance is expected to be realized. The demand for improving quality and increasing quantity remains strong to achieve the goal of a powerful military by 2027 [8][10]. - The construction of military intelligence and unmanned systems at home and abroad is expanding the growth boundary of the military industry. Military AI is reshaping the battlefield rules, and military robots are becoming new combat forces [11][13][15]. - China's military trade net export has been increasing steadily, and there is still much room for market share growth. The military achievements during the 14th Five - Year Plan and improved diplomatic relations are conducive to the development of the military trade market [17][21][26]. 3.1.2 Short - term Catalysts Increasing Industry Attention - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is being formulated, which will promote the high - quality construction of the military industry and may increase the industry's valuation. The 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese People's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression and the World Anti - Fascist War parade will be a short - term catalyst to boost the industry's attention [32][36]. 3.1.3 Focusing on the Two Core Main Lines of Aerospace and Aviation - **Aviation Equipment**: The downstream demand for high - end fighter jets and aero - engines is accelerating, and the market space is expanding. This includes aircraft manufacturers, aero - engine manufacturers, and high - end supporting materials suppliers. The future market space for military aero - engines in the next decade is estimated to be about 1.2 trillion yuan [40][52]. - **Space Equipment**: The demand for guidance equipment is increasing due to the growing importance of missiles in modern warfare. The satellite industry chain has a large market potential, with the downstream ground equipment and satellite services accounting for over 90% of the market value [59][64]. 3.2 Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index: Focusing on Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Stocks with Strong Industry Theme Attributes and High Theme Elasticity 3.2.1 Index Compilation Method - The index is designed to reflect the stock price changes of aerospace and aviation - related listed companies in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges. It selects large - market - value stocks in the Guozheng tertiary industry "Aerospace and Aviation". The sample space has certain requirements, and the selection method is based on free - floating market capitalization, with a semi - annual adjustment frequency [68][70]. 3.2.2 Index Weight and Market Value Distribution - As of July 1, 2025, the index has 50 constituent stocks, with relatively dispersed weights. It has a strong defense - military attribute, focusing on aviation equipment and military electronics. The average free - floating market capitalization is 130.75 billion yuan, and the average total market capitalization is 304.40 billion yuan [71][75]. 3.2.3 Index Industry/Theme Characteristics - The index has a high concentration in the defense - military industry, with 98.02% of the weight belonging to this industry, mainly in the aviation equipment and military electronics sectors. Compared with comparable indices, it has the highest concentration in the military industry and a more prominent industry theme [80][81]. 3.2.4 Fundamental Characteristics - The index shows a high and steadily increasing R & D investment ratio, reaching 4.53% by the end of 2024. It has strong growth attributes and relatively stable profitability compared to comparable indices. Its net profit stability is the strongest since 2022 [83][87]. 3.2.5 Index Investment Value Analysis - It is a representative military - related index with a similar long - term trend to comparable indices. It shows high elasticity during market rebound periods, outperforming comparable military indices in terms of returns during several rebounds [88][90]. 3.3 Aerospace and Aviation ETF Tianhong (159241) - The fund was established on May 21, 2025, and listed on May 29, 2025. Managed by Mr. Sha Chuan and Mr. Qi Shichao, it closely tracks the Guozheng Aerospace and Aviation Industry Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and error. It has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%. It has a relatively low discount rate and shows good performance in share growth and liquidity [94][95][96]. 3.4 Fund Manager and Fund Manager Information 3.4.1 Fund Manager Introduction - Tianhong Fund was established on November 8, 2004, and is a national public - offering fund management company. As of March 31, 2025, its total asset management scale is 124.3409 billion yuan, with 29 public - offering ETF products and a total ETF scale of 79.79 billion yuan [99]. 3.4.2 Fund Manager Introduction - Mr. Sha Chuan has 14 years of securities experience and manages 12 products with a total non - linked fund scale of 155.27 billion yuan. Mr. Qi Shichao has rich experience in Tianhong Fund and manages 17 products with a total non - linked fund scale of 203.69 billion yuan [100].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in defense spending by NATO countries, particularly Germany, which has committed to allocating 5% of its GDP to defense, up from the previous 2% agreed upon in 2014. This shift is seen as a response to changing regional security dynamics and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential conflicts in the Middle East [1]. Group 1: Industry Outlook - The military trade sector is expected to become a second growth driver, with a positive outlook for the military industry as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion. The demand for upstream components and key raw materials is anticipated to increase, benefiting from the demand amplification effect across various military equipment [2]. - Global geopolitical changes are likely to open new growth avenues for the military industry, with domestic demand and foreign trade expected to drive high levels of industry prosperity. Increased defense spending is viewed as a necessary option in the current era of great power competition [2]. - China's military exports are transitioning from low-end, low-cost sales to high-end weapon exports, with significant improvements in the competitiveness of domestic military products on the international stage. This shift is expected to enhance China's global market share in military trade as its international political status rises [2][3]. Group 2: Future Trends - By 2025, military trade and the conversion of military technology into new markets are projected to offer greater elasticity. China's military enterprises are showcasing technological advantages in areas such as drones and fighter jets, positioning the aerospace sector as a core beneficiary [3]. - Future investments in the military sector should focus on gaining "air superiority," reflecting the strategic importance of this capability in modern military operations [3].