【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月25日 【行情分析】 今日原油期货主力合约2602合约上涨0.02%至442.7元/吨，最低价在440.9元/吨，最高价在444.5 元/吨，持仓量减少1852至34826手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 欧佩克+ 8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显 示，美国原油库存去库幅度略预期，但成品油库存增幅超预期，整体油品库存增加。美国原油产量 小幅减少，但仍位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，仍在施压乌克兰。欧洲多国 及欧盟机构领导人发表联合声明称，将组建一支"多国部队"支持乌克兰。乌美双方均称新一轮和 平计划磋商取得建设性进展。俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价继续回落，欧美成品油裂解基差 高位持续回落。不过欧盟最新决定将针对俄罗斯的经济制裁再延长6个月，至2026年7月31日。俄罗 斯认为美国的和平计划最新提案缺乏关键条款，俄方希望作出修改。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙继续 升级，美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的制裁措施，特朗普下 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: December 25, 2025 - Report Title: Crude Oil Morning Report - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View - Short - term geopolitical concerns support oil prices, while medium - to long - term concerns about oversupply remain. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate. SC2602 is expected to trade in the 438 - 446 range, and long - term investors should wait [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily提示 - **Fundamentals**: The US will focus on "blockading" Venezuelan oil in the next two months. CPC pipeline oil transportation in December is expected to drop by one - third. Venezuelan state - owned oil company's inventory increases due to US ship seizures [3]. - **Basis**: On December 24, Oman crude spot price was $62.77/barrel, Qatar Marine crude spot price was $61.95/barrel, with a basis of 16.98 yuan/barrel, and the spot price was higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 2.391 million barrels in the week ending December 19. US EIA inventory decreased by 1.274 million barrels in the week ending December 12. Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.742 million barrels in the week ending December 12. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 3.464 million barrels as of December 24 [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was near the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of December 9, WTI crude oil main position was long and increased; as of December 16, Brent crude oil main position was long and decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: During the Christmas holiday, the external market was closed. Short - term geopolitical concerns support oil prices, but medium - to long - term oversupply concerns remain. SC2602 is expected to trade in the 438 - 446 range [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US will focus on economic sanctions against Venezuelan oil in the next two months. Venezuela may face an economic disaster by mid - January next year if it does not make concessions to the US [5]. - Russia will seek key revisions to the latest US - Ukraine peace plan for Ukraine, including more restrictions on Kiev's military capabilities [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Not provided clearly. - **Likely to Fall**: Middle East situation eases [6]. - **Driving Factors**: Short - term waiting for geopolitical positive factors, medium - to long - term facing the risk of oversupply [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude oil settlement price rose from $61.58 to $61.87, an increase of 0.47%. WTI crude oil rose from $58.01 to $58.38, an increase of 0.64%. SC crude oil rose from 432.6 to 441.7, an increase of 2.10%. Oman crude oil rose from $60.16 to $61.47, an increase of 2.18% [8]. - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd rose from $62.81 to $63.23, an increase of 0.67%. WTI was $0.00, a decrease of 100.00%. Oman crude oil rose from $61.75 to $62.33, an increase of 0.94%. Shengli crude oil rose from $56.59 to $57.92, an increase of 2.35%. Dubai crude oil rose from $61.57 to $62.22, an increase of 1.06% [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **API Inventory**: In the week ending December 19, it increased by 2.391 million barrels [3][11]. - **EIA Inventory**: In the week ending December 12, it decreased by 1.274 million barrels [3][14]. - **WTI Net Long Position**: As of December 9, it was 58,433, an increase of 7,396 [17]. - **Brent Net Long Position**: As of December 16, it was 32,940, a decrease of 74,876 [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the risks of a sudden reversal in the declining trend of oil prices, particularly focusing on the impact of increased production by OPEC+ countries and the resulting reduction in supply capacity [2][4]. Group 1: Current Oil Price Trends - WTI crude oil futures fell below $55 per barrel on December 16, marking a new low not seen in nearly five years, with prices down approximately 20% compared to the end of 2024 [2][5]. - The market is increasingly cautious about the potential for a sudden reversal in weak oil prices due to reduced supply capacity, which has decreased by 30% since the beginning of the year [2][4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ countries, including Saudi Arabia, have increased oil production since April, contributing to the current oversupply situation. The reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day in production was lifted ahead of schedule in September [7]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the remaining capacity of OPEC+ was approximately 4.1 million barrels per day in November, a 30% decrease from January [7]. Group 3: Future Supply Projections - Projections indicate that by 2026, global oil supply may exceed demand by about 3.5 million barrels per day, surpassing Japan's daily demand of approximately 3 million barrels [4][5]. - Concerns arise that if OPEC+ supply capacity falls below 3 million barrels per day, it could hinder the ability to respond to sudden supply-demand imbalances [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Speculation - Speculative funds are increasing short positions on WTI futures, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reporting a near eight-year high in short positions at 221,464 contracts by the end of November [11]. - If unexpected supply-demand tensions arise, these speculative positions may lead to a rapid price increase as funds are forced to cover their shorts [11].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The short - term fundamentals of crude oil are neutral. The market is trading on the US sanctions against Venezuela. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. As supply remains in excess, short positions can be entered at an appropriate time [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI opened at $56.63, closed at $57.95, with a high of $58.13, a low of $56.6, a daily increase of 2.53%, and a trading volume of 205,000 lots. Brent opened at $60.25, closed at $61.54, with a high of $61.66, a low of $60.11, a daily increase of 2.48%, and a trading volume of 323,700 lots. SC opened at 441.4 yuan/barrel, closed at 440.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 445.5 yuan/barrel, a low of 439.7 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 1.92%, and a trading volume of 79,800 lots [6] - **Geopolitical Impact**: The US strengthened sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, directly affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. The supply of about 150,000 barrels per day to the US is expected to be unaffected. Other buyers may either wait and see or increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types from Russia or Iran. The export disruption in Venezuela has a greater impact on China's asphalt market [6] - **Weekly Data**: Crude oil inventories continued to decline, and refinery crude input reached the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Refined oil performance was relatively weak, with gasoline and diesel inventories continuously increasing, which is not conducive to maintaining high refinery operating rates. The data is neutral. In the medium - term, oversupply will continue to suppress oil prices, and there is a possibility of new lows [6] Group 5: Industry News - US President Trump pressured Venezuelan President Maduro on the 22nd, aiming to force Maduro to step down. The US will keep the oil on the seized tankers, which may be sold or used for strategic reserves [8] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that any action by Iran will be met with a "tough response" [8] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange decided to temporarily exempt the registration fee for delivery commodities from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026 [8] Group 6: Data Overview - Data sources include EIA, Bloomberg, and wind. The data involves global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, WTI and Brent spot prices, and US gasoline and diesel consumption [10][13][14]

今日原油期货主力合约2602合约上涨1.92%至440.9元/吨，最低价在439.7元/吨，最高价在445.5 元/吨，持仓量减少2887至36910手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月23日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存去库幅度略预期，但成品油库 存增幅超预期，整体油品库存增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，但仍位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政 府极力促成俄乌停火，仍在施压乌克兰。目前泽连斯基表态，接受双边安全保障而非直接"入约"， 作出了一定妥协，欧洲多国及欧盟机构领导人发表联合声明称，将组建一支"多国部队"支持乌克 兰。乌美双方均称新一轮和平计划磋商取得建设性进展。俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价继续 回落，欧美成品油裂解基差高位持续回落。不过欧盟最新决定将针对俄罗斯的经济制裁再延长6个月， 至2026年7月31日。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙继续升 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Report date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Crude oil's short - term fundamentals are neutral. The market has temporarily digested the US sanctions on Venezuela, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate. In the medium term, there is still a possibility of a decline due to supply pressure. The recommended operation is to short on rebounds [6][7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $55.90, closing at $56.54, with a high of $56.72, a low of $55.61, a daily increase of 0.96%, and a trading volume of 19.93 million lots. Brent's opening price was $59.40, closing at $60.12, with a high of $60.23, a low of $59.11, a daily increase of 1.04%, and a trading volume of 27.5 million lots. SC's opening price was 428.9 yuan/barrel, closing at 437.9 yuan/barrel, with a high of 438.3 yuan/barrel, a low of 428.2 yuan/barrel, a daily increase of 2.46%, and a trading volume of 8.19 million lots [6] - **Geopolitical Situation**: The US has strengthened sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil, directly affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. The supply of about 150,000 barrels per day to the US is expected to be unaffected. Other buyers may either wait and see or increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types from Russia or Iran. Venezuela's export difficulties have a greater impact on China's asphalt market [6] - **Weekly Data**: Crude oil inventories continued to decline, and refinery crude input reached the highest level in the same period in five years. However, refined oil products performed relatively weakly, with gasoline and diesel inventories continuously increasing, which is not conducive to maintaining high refinery operating rates. The data is neutral [6] - **Medium - term Outlook**: Crude oil supply surplus will continue to suppress oil prices, and there is a possibility of new lows [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short on rebounds [7] Group 5: Industry News - US intelligence shows no signs that Iran is about to attack Israel [8] - Another oil tanker, the "Bella 1", was seized by the US near Venezuela. This follows the seizure of the "Century" on Saturday morning and the "Skipper" on December 10 [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][13][21][23]

Group 1: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustment - The domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel will decrease by 170 yuan and 165 yuan per ton, respectively, effective from December 22, 2025 [1] - This price reduction will result in a savings of 6.5 yuan for filling a 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline for private cars and a monthly fuel cost reduction of 266 yuan for heavy trucks in the logistics industry [1] - The year 2025 will conclude with a "three consecutive declines" in fuel price adjustments, totaling 25 rounds of adjustments throughout the year, with gasoline and diesel prices cumulatively down by 915 yuan and 880 yuan per ton, respectively [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ has been a focal point this year, gradually exiting voluntary production cuts starting from April 2025, which has created significant supply pressure in the global oil market [2] - Current remaining production capacity among eight OPEC+ countries is approximately 3.55 million barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia holding about 2 million barrels per day [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts severe oversupply in the first and second quarters of 2026, with excesses of 4.99 million barrels per day and 4.73 million barrels per day, respectively [2] Group 3: Oil Demand and Market Outlook - The overall outlook for oil demand is constrained by weak economic growth, with limited growth expected in 2026, primarily driven by countries like China and India, while demand in Europe and the U.S. is unlikely to improve [3] - Expectations of oversupply in the oil market for 2026 may continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices, although potential adjustments in OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical developments could alter supply expectations [3] - Oil prices are anticipated to enter a bottom-seeking phase in 2026, with the overall price center expected to decline further, although there may be upward pressure if the macroeconomic environment improves [3]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have risen significantly due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Venezuela's oil exports and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to a cumulative increase of $3 over four trading days [4][16]. Oil Market Dynamics - The U.S. has seized two oil tankers transporting Venezuelan oil, increasing the risk of export interruptions, which could result in a loss of approximately 500,000 barrels per day from the supply side [4][16]. - Despite the geopolitical tensions, the U.S. oil market remains relatively unaffected, with WTI prices rebounding but showing little change in monthly differentials [4][16]. - Brent crude prices have reacted more significantly to the geopolitical events, indicating a disruption in global supply chains [5][17]. Price Movements - WTI crude oil futures closed at $58.01, up $1.49 (2.64%), while Brent crude oil futures closed at $61.58, up $1.53 (2.55%) [6][18]. - The INE crude oil futures also saw an increase, closing at 441.30 yuan, up 2.01% [6][18]. Geopolitical Factors - Israeli officials are preparing to report to Trump about potential military actions against Iran, citing concerns over Iran's missile program and nuclear facilities [19]. - Recent discussions among U.S. and European officials regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict have not improved the prospects for peace, leading to increased market uncertainty [20]. Supply and Pricing Trends - Russian oil prices have significantly decreased, with Urals crude now priced around $34 per barrel, reflecting the impact of sanctions and market dynamics [5][17]. - The current oil market is characterized by a complex situation of oversupply, but U.S. actions against Venezuelan exports may alleviate some of this pressure [17].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that domestic refined oil retail prices in China will decrease for the 12th time in 2025, with gasoline and diesel prices per ton reduced by 170 yuan and 165 yuan respectively, effective from December 22, 2025 [1] - The price reduction translates to a decrease of 0.13 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 0.14 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 0.14 yuan for 0-octane diesel [2] - In 2025, the cumulative reduction in gasoline prices is 915 yuan per ton, equivalent to 0.72 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.76 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, while diesel prices have decreased by 880 yuan per ton, equating to 0.75 yuan per liter for 0-octane diesel [2] Group 2 - The current round of price adjustments is influenced by a sustained negative change in crude oil prices, leading to a downward trend in refined oil retail prices [3] - During the adjustment period, gasoline wholesale prices increased by approximately 0.6%, while diesel wholesale prices decreased by about 2.4% [4] - Analysts indicate that the demand for gasoline and diesel is expected to remain weak due to declining needs in industries such as construction and logistics, as well as the rapid development of electric vehicles [4] Group 3 - International crude oil prices have predominantly decreased during the adjustment period, with U.S. crude prices reaching their lowest level since February 2021 [5] - The global crude oil market is experiencing an oversupply, with OPEC+ deciding to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, although they plan to pause further increases in the first quarter of 2026 [5] - Analysts predict that the oversupply situation will persist into 2026, with supply growth outpacing demand growth, leading to increased inventory pressure [6]

基于严重的供应过剩预期，麦格理对油价前景维持坚定看空。其基本预测是：布伦特原油价格将下探至 每桶50美元的低位，并有相当可能触及每桶45美元，此后才可能因供需调整形成价格底部并开始回升。 同时，由于供应超出可用的炼油能力，市场远期曲线预计将转为期货溢价。麦格理已将2026年布伦特原 油年均价预测下调至每桶60.75美元。 策略师强调，尽管其过剩预测在数量上处于市场预估的高端，但在市场平衡方向和价格前景的判断上， 他们与市场共识并无二致。随着原油供应过剩从海上向陆上传导，持续多年的库存结构矛盾正走向终 结，油价面临的根本性下行压力日益清晰。 中化新网讯 近日，麦格理集团策略师发布报告警告，随着石油的陆上库存开始累积，油价将面临更大 的下行压力。数据显示，自8月底以来，海上库存已增加约2.5亿桶，陆上库存增加约3000万桶。 报告预测，2026年一季度市场供应过剩将达到峰值，超过每日400万桶。过剩迹象已经显现：海上浮舱 库存持续增加，陆上库存开始累积，同时原油海运运费居高不下。据估计，约有三分之一的海上库存增 量来自从美洲到亚洲的长途运输。 ...