Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stable operations despite increased volatility in the international currency market, with a notable rebound and subsequent decline in the US dollar index [1][2] Group 1: Bank Settlement and Foreign Exchange Data - In July 2025, banks in China settled a total of 233.6 billion USD and sold 210.8 billion USD, with cumulative settlements from January to July reaching 1,376.8 billion USD and sales at 1,379.3 billion USD [1] - The bank's foreign exchange income for clients in July was 690.4 billion USD, while payments amounted to 698.1 billion USD, leading to cumulative foreign exchange income of 4,551 billion USD and payments of 4,431.5 billion USD from January to July [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Expectations - In July, the bank's settlement and sales volumes increased by 12% and 16% respectively compared to the previous month, continuing a surplus trend with a scale of 22.8 billion USD [1] - The exchange rate for enterprises and individuals showed a slight increase in settlement rates while the sales rates remained stable, indicating stable market expectations and active trading [1] Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border capital flows remained generally stable, with non-bank sectors' income and expenditure at historical highs, achieving a near balance [2] - Net inflows from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, while net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, attributed to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payouts [2] Group 4: Economic Support Factors - The steady progress of high-quality economic development in China, along with the increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market, is expected to provide strong support for the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [2]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stable operations despite increased volatility in the international currency market, with a notable rebound and subsequent decline in the US dollar index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the scale of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales increased by 12% and 16% respectively, continuing a surplus trend with a total scale of 22.8 billion USD [1] - The exchange rate for enterprises and individuals showed a slight increase in settlement rates while the sales rates remained stable, indicating stable market expectations and active trading [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors reached historical highs in July, with a balanced income and expenditure [1] - Net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high level, while net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, primarily due to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payouts [1] Group 3: Economic Support - The steady progress of high-quality economic development in China, along with the increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market, is expected to provide strong support for the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stable operations despite increased volatility in the international currency market since July 2023 [1] Market Performance - In July, the scale of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales increased by 12% and 16% respectively, continuing a surplus trend with a total of 22.8 billion USD [1] - The exchange rate for enterprises and individuals showed a slight increase in settlement rates while sales rates remained stable, indicating stable market expectations and active trading [1] Cross-Border Capital Flows - Overall, cross-border capital flows remained stable, with non-bank sectors' cross-border income and expenditure at historical highs, achieving a near balance [1] - Net inflow from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high level, while net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, attributed to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payouts [1] Economic Context - The steady progress of high-quality economic development in China, along with the increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market, is expected to provide strong support for the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the release of the US July CPI data, which shows a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, leading to increased bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - The core CPI for July increased by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 3.0%, marking the highest level since January [1] - Following the CPI data release, US stock index futures experienced a significant rise, with the Dow Jones index futures up 0.59%, Nasdaq 100 index futures up 0.70%, and S&P 500 index futures up 0.59% [1] Group 2 - Analysts noted that the market's reaction indicated that some traders had anticipated a worse inflation report, yet stock index futures still rose despite the acceleration in inflation [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index fell sharply by over 30 points, with non-US currencies appreciating, including the British pound surpassing 1.35 against the dollar [3] - In the commodities market, spot gold prices surged, approaching $3360 per ounce [5]

【纠错】 【责任编辑:成岚】 新华社音视频部制作 7月22日,国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年上半年外汇收支数据情况，并答记者问。国家 外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌介绍，2025年上半年外汇市场运行平稳，表现出较强的韧性和活 力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest foreign exchange data indicates that China's net cross-border capital inflow reached 127.3 billion USD in the first half of the year, with a 46% quarter-on-quarter increase in the second quarter, continuing the net inflow trend since the second half of last year, reflecting active cross-border trade and investment activities [1][7]. Group 1: Cross-Border Capital Flow - In the first half of the year, the total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, amounted to 7.6 trillion USD, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, the highest for the same period in history [4]. - The net inflow of cross-border funds for enterprises and individuals reached 127.3 billion USD, continuing the net inflow trend since the second half of last year [7]. Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market Activity - The foreign exchange market saw a trading volume of 21 trillion USD in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [15]. - The bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales amounted to 25.3 billion USD, indicating rational and orderly trading behavior among enterprises and individuals [11]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Currency Fluctuations - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at 3.3174 trillion USD, an increase of 115.1 billion USD compared to the end of 2024 [18]. - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD in the first half of the year, with the exchange rate fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35 [21].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's recent interview has stirred the forex market, indicating dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The disappointing July non-farm payroll data, with only 73,000 jobs added and a downward revision of 260,000 for the previous two months, provides new evidence of economic cooling [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has surged to 89%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool [1] - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have warned that if August's employment data remains weak, a 50 basis point rate cut could be on the table [1] Group 2: "Global Economic Eye" Video Channel - The "Global Economic Eye" video channel aims to quickly respond to market-moving events such as Trump's personnel announcements, disappointing non-farm data, and aggressive rate cut predictions [5] - The channel focuses on global economic and political dynamics that can significantly impact the forex market, saving investors the effort of sifting through information [6] - The analysis provided by the experienced team goes beyond mere news reporting, delving into the underlying logic and market transmission mechanisms [6] Group 3: Benefits for Investors - The video format combines audio, visuals, and text, making it a more efficient way to convey complex global financial information, particularly in a fast-paced trading environment [7] - The channel directly addresses the core need of understanding market impacts, eliminating the need for investors to piece together fragmented information [7] - Regular engagement with the channel's in-depth analysis can enhance investors' sensitivity to market reactions to various events [7] Conclusion - The "Global Economic Eye" video channel is positioned as a reliable tool for forex investors, providing timely and insightful interpretations of market-moving events to aid in decision-making [8]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing slight upward movement despite recent weak employment data and the resignation of a Federal Reserve official, leading to increased demand for bearish options on the dollar [1] Market Analysis - The current price of the US dollar index is reported at 98.81, with a 0.06% increase from an opening price of 98.75 [1] - The market has largely priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, limiting the downside potential for the dollar [1] - Implied volatility has surged, with the 1-month risk reversal indicator rising to 0.55 and the 1-year risk reversal indicator increasing to 0.725 [1] Technical Levels - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is identified at 98.95-99.00, with significant resistance at 99.15-99.20 [1] - Short-term support levels are noted at 98.55-98.60, with important support at 98.35-98.40 [1] - A trading strategy suggests selling in the range of 99.00-98.35, with a stop loss of 20 points and a target at the lower end of the range [1]

美元/人民币报7.1366，下调29点； 欧元/人民币报8.2750，上调55点； 港元/人民币报0.90916，下调3.6 点； 英镑/人民币报9.5021，上调102点； 澳元/人民币报4.6254，上调34点； 加元/人民币报5.1897，上 调7点； 100日元/人民币报4.8709，上调133点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.1270，上调220点； 新西兰元/ 人民币报4.2292，上调42点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59236，下调39.5点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.8504，下调 348点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5553，上调78点。 ...

Core Insights - China's cross-border travel revenue increased by 42% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - The service trade revenue grew by 13% year-on-year, with cross-border travel being a significant contributor [1] - The service trade deficit decreased by 14% year-on-year, indicating a narrowing gap between service trade income and expenditure [1] Economic Performance - The foreign exchange market in China showed strong resilience and vitality, performing better than market expectations [1] - The current account has been stable, with an increase in the international competitiveness of productive service trades such as computer information services and business services [1] - The overall balance of international payments is expected to remain stable due to ongoing economic structural optimization and financial market opening [1]