Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth and stabilize market expectations, while closely monitoring the effectiveness of previously implemented policies [1][2]. Data Overview - In the first half of 2025, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan - As of the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 330.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.3% - The cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first half of 2025 was 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year - The social financing scale stock as of the end of June was 430.22 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [2]. Policy Implementation - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary and credit policies, responding to external shocks and promoting economic recovery - The focus will be on maintaining ample liquidity, ensuring that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations - The PBOC will emphasize financial services for the real economy, particularly in areas such as technological innovation, consumption expansion, and support for small and micro enterprises [2][3]. Structural Focus - The PBOC will utilize various structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors and address weaknesses in the economy - There will be a focus on policy coordination to enhance the effectiveness of financial services directed at the real economy [2][3]. Transmission Mechanism - The PBOC will strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policies to improve market competition and fund utilization efficiency - Efforts will be made to balance financial support for the real economy with the health of the financial system [3]. Monetary Policy Framework - The PBOC plans to improve the market-based interest rate adjustment mechanism and optimize the monetary policy tool system - A credible and institutionalized policy communication mechanism will be established to better serve high-quality development [3].

Group 1: Monetary Supply - As of the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) reached 330.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [5] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 113.95 trillion yuan, growing by 4.6% year-on-year [5] - The currency in circulation (M0) was 13.18 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12% [5] - A net cash injection of 363.3 billion yuan occurred in the first half of the year [5] Group 2: Loan Growth - In the first half of the year, RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan [6] - Household loans rose by 1.17 trillion yuan, with short-term loans decreasing by 300 million yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 1.17 trillion yuan [6] - Corporate loans increased by 11.57 trillion yuan, with short-term loans up by 4.3 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans up by 7.17 trillion yuan [6] - Non-bank financial institutions saw an increase in loans of 33.1 billion yuan [6] Group 3: Deposit Growth - RMB deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [8] - By the end of June, the total balance of RMB deposits was 320.17 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3% [8] - Household deposits rose by 10.77 trillion yuan, while non-financial corporate deposits increased by 1.77 trillion yuan [8] Group 4: Interbank Market Rates - The weighted average interest rate for interbank RMB lending in June was 1.46%, down 0.09 percentage points from the previous month and 0.41 percentage points from the same period last year [10] - The average interest rate for pledged bond repurchase agreements was 1.5%, also lower than the previous month and year [10] Group 5: Social Financing - The cumulative increase in social financing scale for the first half of 2025 was 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3] - By the end of June, the total social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.9% [3] Group 6: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The foreign exchange reserves stood at 3.32 trillion USD by the end of June [11] - The exchange rate for RMB against USD was 7.1586 yuan per dollar at the end of June [11] Group 7: Cross-Border RMB Settlement - The amount of cross-border RMB settlement under the current account reached 8.3 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [12] - Direct investment cross-border RMB settlement amounted to 4.11 trillion yuan, with outbound direct investment at 1.46 trillion yuan and foreign direct investment at 2.65 trillion yuan [12]

央行：6月末，广义货币(M2)余额330.29万亿元，同比增长8.3%。狭义货币(M1)余额113.95万亿元，同 比增长4.6%。流通中货币(M0)余额13.18万亿元，同比增长12%。上半年净投放现金3633亿元。 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of May 2025, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 108.91 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, indicating a recovery in short-term trading activities among enterprises [1] - The total social financing stock was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, and the incremental social financing for the first five months was 18.63 trillion yuan, exceeding the previous year by 3.83 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - In May, the balance of RMB loans increased by 7.1% year-on-year, with new loans amounting to 620 billion yuan, although the growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - Analysts suggest that the current economy is at a critical stage of transitioning between old and new growth drivers, requiring a shift in monetary and fiscal policies from "quantity" to "mechanism" integration [2] - It is anticipated that in the third quarter, the implementation of loan interest subsidies for equipment upgrades will marginally improve manufacturing investment, facilitating financial support for the real economy [2]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3377 points, down 0.75%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10122.11 points, down 1.1% [1][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 15040 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4] - Among the 30 sectors, only 4 sectors saw gains, with notable increases in oil and petrochemicals, national defense and military, and electric power and utilities, while comprehensive finance, media, and textile and apparel sectors faced significant declines [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.79%, the S&P 500 down 1.13%, and the Nasdaq down 1.3% [2][4] - Major technology stocks also fell, with Nvidia dropping over 2% and Facebook down more than 1% [2][4] Financial Data - The People's Bank of China reported that the social financing scale increased by 18.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, which is 3.83 trillion more than the same period last year [9][16] - As of the end of May, the broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [9][16] Key News - The State Council held a meeting to deploy pilot measures for the China (Shanghai) Free Trade Zone, aiming to replicate and promote these measures to enhance high-level opening-up and deep reforms [14] - The fourth China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo concluded with 176 signed projects amounting to 11.39 billion USD, marking a 45.8% increase in project numbers and a 10.6% increase in project value compared to the previous expo [18]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report indicates that the iron ore market has repeated expectations and is in a range - bound oscillation [1]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 703.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton or - 0.14%. The position was 695,640 hands, with a decrease of 21,059 hands [1]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ores such as Carajás fines (65%) dropped 1.0 yuan/ton to 816.0 yuan/ton, PB fines (61.5%) dropped 3.0 yuan/ton to 719.0 yuan/ton, etc. Some domestic ores remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread**: The basis and inter - contract spreads changed. For example, the basis (12505 vs. Super Special) decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton to 164.1 yuan/ton, and the 12509 - 12601 spread decreased by 2.5 yuan/ton to 30.5 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2]. 3. Macro and Industry News - As of the end of May, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% year - on - year; narrow - money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% year - on - year; and the balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, up 12.1% year - on - year. A net cash injection of 306.4 billion yuan was made in the first five months [3]. - Guangzhou released a draft plan to boost consumption, including optimizing real - estate policies such as canceling purchase, resale, and price restrictions, and reducing down - payment ratios and loan interest rates [3].

Group 1: Monetary Supply and Credit Conditions - In May, the broad money supply (M2) increased by 7.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][3] - The narrow money supply (M1) grew by 2.3% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the end of the previous month [3] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 620 billion yuan, a decrease of 330 billion yuan year-on-year, while the social financing scale increased by 22.894 billion yuan, up by 2.271 billion yuan year-on-year [2][10] Group 2: Economic Activity and Investment - The increase in M1 indicates a significant acceleration in "active money," suggesting a recovery in investment and consumption activities [3][5] - The government bond issuance has accelerated, which is the primary driver for the rapid growth of social financing scale [11] - The total social financing scale at the end of May was 426.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [10] Group 3: Loan Dynamics and Sector Performance - Corporate loans increased by 530 billion yuan in May, but this was a decrease of 210 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a continued impact from local government debt replacement [7][9] - Retail loans showed signs of improvement, although overall demand remains weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 217 billion yuan in residential loans [9] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been significant, with over 1.6 trillion yuan issued this year to support debt replacement [7][11]

Financial Overview - In May, the total financial volume in China showed reasonable growth, with the social financing scale maintaining a high growth rate, providing strong support for the real economy [1][7] - The broad money supply (M2) reached approximately 326 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The stock of social financing was about 426 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1] Government Bond Issuance - The acceleration of government bond issuance is identified as the primary driver for the rapid growth of social financing [1] - In the first quarter, the net financing scale exceeded 3.8 trillion yuan, with local special bond issuance also showing signs of acceleration, reaching a monthly issuance high for the year [1] Corporate Bond Financing - Corporate bond financing increased, with net financing exceeding 140 billion yuan in May [2] - The overall cost of corporate bond issuance has been declining, encouraging companies to increase bond financing under a low-interest-rate environment [2] M1 Growth and Economic Activity - The growth rate of M1, which includes more liquid forms of money, has significantly accelerated, indicating a recovery in investment and consumption activities [2][4] - Recent financial support measures have effectively boosted market confidence, leading to signs of economic activity recovery [4] Loan Growth and Interest Rates - RMB loans maintained steady growth in May, with average interest rates at historical lows; corporate loans averaged 3.2%, down 50 basis points year-on-year, while personal housing loans averaged 3.1%, down about 55 basis points [5] - The increase in personal mortgage loans is attributed to a recovering real estate market and policies promoting durable goods consumption [5] Future Financial Outlook - Experts anticipate that financial volume growth will remain stable in the coming period, supported by more proactive fiscal policies and a resilient economic development [7] - Historical trends suggest that June typically sees increased economic activity and financing demand [7]

Financial Overview - In May 2023, China's social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, indicating a robust growth in financing activities [1] - The total social financing scale for the first five months of 2023 reached 18.63 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] Monetary Supply - The broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, growing by 2.3% [2] - The increase in M1 is attributed to a rise in "liquid money," which includes currency in circulation and demand deposits, reflecting improved market confidence and economic activity [2] Loan Growth - The total RMB loan balance stood at 266.32 trillion yuan at the end of May, with a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [2] - Notable growth was observed in inclusive small and micro loans, which increased by 11.6%, and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector, which grew by 8.8% [2] Economic Activity - The reduction in policy interest rates by the central bank in May has encouraged businesses to borrow more, leading to an increase in loan demand [3] - External factors, such as trade negotiations and tariff reductions, have also contributed to increased credit demand from foreign trade enterprises [3] Consumer Loans - The growth in personal loans reflects a recovery in economic activities, with an increase in mortgage loans due to a warming real estate market and a boost in consumer spending driven by promotional events [3] - The central bank's financial support measures, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools, have started to take effect [3] Future Outlook - Financial growth is expected to remain stable, supported by resilient economic development and increased financing demand in June [4] - The central bank's recent operations, including a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase agreement, aim to maintain liquidity in the market [4]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 108.91 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [1] - In the first five months of the year, a net cash injection of 306.4 billion yuan was recorded [1] Group 2 - As of the end of May, the balance of RMB loans was 266.32 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [1] - In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 1.068 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 57.24 billion yuan [1] - Corporate loans increased by 980 billion yuan, while non-bank financial institution loans rose by 13.57 billion yuan [1] Group 3 - The chief economist of China Minsheng Bank noted that the M2 growth rate remained stable while M1 growth accelerated, indicating a significant increase in "liquid money" [1] - A package of financial support measures from the central bank has effectively boosted market confidence, leading to signs of recovery in investment and consumption activities [1] - The ongoing debt resolution process and the allocation of fiscal funds have provided support for related enterprises' demand for current deposits [1] Group 4 - The credit issuance in May showed similarities to the beginning of the season, with effective financing demand not yet significantly improving amid external uncertainties [2] - A package of financial support policies was introduced on May 7, including interest rate cuts and the optimization of structural monetary policy tools, which are beneficial for stabilizing credit expansion [2] - Despite the influence of debt replacement effects, the loan growth rate in May remained around 8% when excluding the impact of local debt replacement [2]