虽然以上国家和地区，并没有从明面上达成共识，要共同反制特朗普的关税政策，但这么多经济体，各自通过自己的方式对美说不，本质上已经构成了类似 于"反特朗普关税防线"的效果，因此一定程度上来说，当下是中方"援手"全部到齐，美国越发走向众叛亲离。 不止如此，就连美国国内，对特朗普的支持声也开始肉眼可见地降低，就在日前，特朗普才达成一项重大成就：以39%支持率创造了美国80年来历任总 统"百日执政"的最差民调表现。有意思的是，此前特朗普在国会发表演讲时还曾高调吹嘘自己新任期的开场表现，自封美国有史以来"最伟大总统"。 关税阴谋失败，特朗普开始要"讲道理"了吗？如今美国面临的危机有多大？ 日前美国总统特朗普做出了一番堪称搞笑的表态，他表示在关税谈判上，自己将会开始"讲道理"（We will be reasonable on tarrifs.）。释放出怎样的信号呢？ 在这之前，特朗普乃至白宫甚至整个特朗普政府，都在不断对外宣扬，已经有很多国家主动找到特朗普政府求饶，希望能尽快和美国达成贸易协议，以换取 美国的关税豁免。特朗普甚至还异常惊人地宣称很多国家高层等着要"亲吻我的屁股"。 但与之相对应的是，似乎没有一桩已经明确达成 ...

Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 177,000 in April, surpassing economists' expectations of 130,000, although it was lower than the previous month [1] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The labor force participation rate unexpectedly rose to 62.6%, with the participation rate for the core working age group (25-54 years) reaching a seven-month high [7] Group 2: Sector Performance - Job growth in April was led by the healthcare and transportation sectors, while manufacturing saw significant job losses due to a decline in overall PMI output [6] - The transportation and warehousing sector experienced its highest job growth since December, driven by a surge in import orders before the implementation of tariffs [6] - The federal government has seen job cuts for three consecutive months, marking the longest streak of layoffs since 2022, primarily due to budget cuts [6] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Predictions - Economists predict that the most severe impacts of tariff policies will manifest in the coming months, potentially accelerating layoffs [5][8] - The probability of the U.S. entering a recession within the next 12 months has increased significantly, with estimates rising from 30% to 45% [9] - Consumer confidence has dropped to historical lows, and households are expected to face reduced spending power due to inflationary pressures [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the PCE price index has eased market concerns about a resurgence of high inflation, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4][6]. Economic Indicators - The March PCE price index increased by 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest level since last autumn, slightly above the expected 2.2% [4][6]. - The core PCE price index rose by 2.6% year-on-year, down from the previous value of 2.8%, with both PCE and core PCE showing no month-on-month change [2][4][6]. - Consumer spending in March increased by 0.7%, the largest gain since early 2023, indicating proactive consumer behavior ahead of new tariffs [7]. Market Reactions - Following the data release, U.S. stock markets rebounded, with the Dow and S&P 500 closing higher, while the Nasdaq's decline was minimized [6]. - The probability of a rate cut in June has risen to 65.5%, while the likelihood of a cut next week remains low at 5.6% [12]. Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve officials are cautious but may consider rate cuts if the labor market weakens significantly due to tariff policies [12][13]. - The upcoming non-farm payroll report is critical, as it may influence the Fed's decision on rate cuts [13]. Future Projections - Analysts predict that the core PCE price index could rise to 3.5% by the end of 2025, marking a new high since September 2024 [8]. - The Fed's potential actions may be influenced by the outcome of trade agreements and the overall economic data in the coming months [12].

周三，美国参议院以势均力敌的投票结果否决了两党共同提出的阻止特朗普关税政策的议案。就在几个 小时前，美国联邦政府报告称，由于特朗普关税政策引发的混乱，美国经济三年来首次出现收缩。 有三名共和党人加入民主党人行列，支持终止特朗普宣布的国家紧急状态，此前特朗普以该紧急状态为 依据，对美国贸易伙伴实施10%的全球关税，并对包括欧盟在内的57个贸易伙伴实施更高的对等关税。 但49票对49票的投票结果未能达到通过该决议并将其提交至众议院所需的简单多数票。 共和党的支持力度相比几周前有所下降，当时四名参议院共和党人与民主党人一起通过了一项类似的法 案，寻求终止对加拿大的新关税。目前共和党在参议院中以53票对47票占据多数。 提出该议案的俄勒冈州民主党参议员罗恩・怀登（Ron Wyden）在投票前表示："美国参议院不能在这 种关税疯狂行为中袖手旁观。国会有权设定关税并监管全球贸易。" 美国商务部周三早些时候报告称，由于企业为避免关税带来的更高成本而大量进口商品，在2025年前三 个月，美国经济收缩0.3%，这是自2022年第一季度以来的首次负增长。 这份经济报告首次切实证明了特朗普关税政策对经济的影响。在此之前，美国股市和 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. private sector added only 62,000 jobs this month, marking the smallest increase since July 2024 and significantly below the expected 115,000 jobs [1][3] - Wage growth has also slowed, with salaries for employees staying in their current positions rising by 4.5% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from March, while salaries for job switchers increased to 6.9%, up 0.2 percentage points [3] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw the largest job increase, adding 27,000 positions, followed by trade, transportation, and utilities (21,000), financial activities (20,000), and construction (16,000) [3] Group 2 - The report comes amid increasing uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump's tariff policies on corporate hiring plans and the broader economic situation [3] - The ADP data serves as a leading indicator for the Labor Department's non-farm payroll report, which is expected to show a job growth of 135,000, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2% [3]

Group 1 - The old market adage "Sell in May and go away" is influencing the current rebound in the US stock market, with historical data supporting this trend [1] - A fund tracking the S&P 500 index since 1993 shows a cumulative return of 171% from May to October, compared to 731% from November to April, indicating a significant seasonal performance difference [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded 12% from its low this month but is still down 5.5% year-to-date, suggesting caution in chasing gains [1] Group 2 - Over the past 74 years, the S&P 500 index has only achieved a cumulative return of 35% from May to October, while the return from November to April has been as high as 11,657% [2] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is expected to be a key focus for the market, as it may influence investor sentiment and market direction [2] - Some indicators have signaled a buying opportunity, including a drop in investor confidence and the S&P 500 index recovering above 5,500 points, indicating a potential shift towards buying on dips [2] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that in years where the stock market has a poor start, the S&P 500 index tends to perform worse from May to October, with an average decline of 0.4% in such years [3] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF has seen a year-to-date decline of 5.4%, reflecting the cautious market sentiment [3] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains elevated around 25, above the long-term average of approximately 20, indicating ongoing market volatility [3] Group 4 - The potential expiration of tariff suspensions by Trump in July could serve as a source of volatility, reinforcing the "Sell in May" trend and highlighting the impact of global trade dynamics on market movements [5] - Market analysts suggest that long-term holding strategies may be wiser for ordinary investors compared to attempting to time the market, with a buy-and-hold strategy since 1993 yielding a return of 2,100% for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF [5]

Core Viewpoint - A significant options trader has placed an $18 million bet that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this year, contrasting with broader market expectations for rate cuts in July and potentially two more times later in the year [1] Group 1: Options Market Activity - A major position has accumulated in options contracts betting that the Federal Reserve will maintain or raise rates before 2025, with approximately 180,000 contracts now held, representing about 75% of the total open interest [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) reported a surge in open contracts this week, indicating increased risk exposure linked to the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) [1] - Recent trading activity has focused on SOFR options with a strike price of 95.6875, particularly due to new trades in put options aimed at maintaining current interest rates over the next year [7] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Investor sentiment is mixed as many on Wall Street are betting that tariffs imposed by Trump could slow the economy, prompting the Fed to lower rates, while recent trades have diminished this expectation [4] - A Morgan Stanley client survey indicated a slight increase in both long and short positions in the Treasury market following a sell-off triggered by tariff announcements [4] - CFTC data shows asset managers have increased net long positions in 10-year Treasury futures by approximately 370,000 contracts, while hedge funds have also raised their net long positions by about 170,000 contracts [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dongfang Precision (东方精工), reported a stock price of 12.38 yuan as of April 29, 2025, with a slight increase of 0.24% and a trading volume of 947,500 shares, amounting to a total transaction value of 1.174 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Company Operations - The company focuses on high-end intelligent equipment manufacturing, with its main business covering intelligent packaging equipment and water power equipment [3]. - The company’s gasoline engine products are primarily used in small terminal machinery for agriculture and gardening, and gasoline generator sets can serve as backup power sources [2]. Group 2: Financial Information - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.3 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) for the first quarter of 2025, pending approval from the shareholders' meeting [4]. - The company holds approximately 216 million shares of restricted stock, mainly from executives and the remaining unlifted shares from the 2022 stock incentive plan [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - On April 29, 2025, retail investors saw a net inflow of 25.124 million yuan, while institutional and speculative funds experienced net outflows of 9.788 million yuan and 15.336 million yuan, respectively [6]. - The company’s overseas revenue is primarily generated from local subsidiaries in Europe and North America, indicating that the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports is minimal for the company [5].

据了解，亚马逊将很快"在产品标价旁明确显示关税所占金额比例"。这一举措或将直接向美国消费者 展示特朗普关税政策如何推高商品价格，但这有可能损害该公司及其创始人杰夫·贝佐斯与特朗普政 府建立的任何良好关系。 当地时间4月29日，央视记者获悉，在亚马逊宣布将开始标注特朗普关税政策带来的商品额外成本 后，特朗普政府当日对亚马逊发起猛烈抨击。美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特称此举是"敌对的政治行为"。 ...

金十数据4月29日讯，在亚马逊宣布将开始标注特朗普关税政策带来的商品额外成本后，特朗普政府当 日对亚马逊发起猛烈抨击。美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特称此举是"敌对的政治行为"。据了解，亚马逊将很 快"在产品标价旁明确显示关税所占金额比例"。这一举措或将直接向美国消费者展示特朗普关税政策如 何推高商品价格，但这有可能损害该公司及其创始人杰夫·贝佐斯与特朗普政府建立的任何良好关系。 白宫抨击亚马逊展示关税价格 称其为"敌对政治行为" ...