Core Insights - The article indicates that U.S. housing prices are expected to continue rising, with a projected average annual increase of 3.5% in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index until 2027 [1] - Nearly all surveyed analysts believe that Trump's tariff policies will hinder housing construction, reflecting a negative outlook on market affordability and liquidity [1] - Long-term bond yields have surged, limiting the downward movement of mortgage rates, which will continue to pressure affordability in the housing market [1] Survey Findings - A survey conducted by Reuters from May 19 to June 3 involved 27 real estate analysts, who expressed a more pessimistic view compared to three months prior [1] - The analysts had previously predicted improvements in market affordability and liquidity, but recent tax and spending legislation is expected to increase U.S. debt, dampening their optimism [1] - Approximately 90% of respondents indicated that U.S. tariffs would lead to a reduction in affordable housing construction [1]

陷入法律泥潭,特朗普贸易战将走 2025年4月2日,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在华盛顿特区白宫玫 绍互惠关税的海报。 摄影师:肯特·西村/彭博社 作者：埃里克·拉尔森、乔什·温格罗夫、肖恩·唐南和劳拉·柯蒂斯 2025年5月30日凌晨12:13 (GMT+8) 更新日期 2025年5月30日凌晨4:54 GMT+8 人 节省 美国国际贸易法院于5月28日裁定, 唐纳德·特朗普总统征收的绝大多 数关税均属非法,并下令冻结这些关税,这将对其经济议程的一个关 键支柱造成打击。一天后,上诉法院暂时撤销了特朗普政府的裁决, 同时正在考虑更长期的冻结措施。 纽约贸易法院由三名法官组成的合议庭一致裁定,特朗普错误地援引 了一项紧急状态法来证明征收关税的合理性。鉴于法院在贸易问题上 倾向于听从总统的意见,这一裁决实属罕见。 如果最终维持贸易法院的裁决,将标志着特朗普政府在一系列针对行 政命令的诉讼浪潮中遭遇重大法律挫折,这些诉讼正在考验总统权力 的底线。如果行政部门选择无视法官的命令,这项裁决也可能考验法 院执行裁决的权力。 随着案件在司法系统中不断推进,影响数万亿美元全球贸易的关税命 运最终可能掌握在最高法院手中。 贸易法庭的 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-05-30 美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税政策暂时继续生效 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税政策暂时继续生效，此前美国国际贸易法院叫停了"解放日"关税政策；特 朗普麾下官员对取得诉讼胜利表现得极具信心，还认为即使败诉也能另寻他法征收关税，同时关税谈判也将继续 推进，未来几周会有三份协议。而美国财长贝森特表示，过去48小时贸易伙伴的态度没有任何变化。此外，特朗 普新上任以来首次约见鲍威尔，特朗普要求其降息，鲍威尔则坚持货币政策独立性。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-05-29，沪金主力合约开于 772.70元/克，收于 764.32元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -1.03%。当日成交量为 250594手，持仓量为 195076手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 773.58 元/克，收于 773.78 元/克，较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.96%。 2025-05-29，沪银主力合约开于 8236元/千克，收于 8224元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 659531手，持仓量 345595手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,249元/千克，收于 8,235 元/千克， ...

当地时间周四，美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，标普500指数录得三连跌。美国长期国债抛售潮再度扩大，30年期国债收 益率盘中一度升至5.15%，续刷2023年10月以来的最高水平。市场投资者对美国财政赤字不断膨胀感到忧虑。 当日，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒在接受福克斯商业频道采访时明确表示，如果美国政府对贸易伙伴征收的关税维持 在约10%的水平，美联储可能从2025年下半年开始降息。 美联储或在下半年降息 "如果我们能将关税维持在约10%的水平，并且在7月前尘埃落定、彻底落实，那么下半年我们就会处于一个不错的位 置上。"沃勒称， "那美联储就有良好条件，在下半年推出一系列降息行动。" 沃勒表示，硬数据表明当前经济表现良好，尚未明显受到关税的影响。他认为，与关税相关的任何通货膨胀上升都将 是暂时的。然而，如果政府恢复到更高的关税水平，这将"对通货膨胀产生更大的影响，并将限制我们对短期利率采取 任何行动的能力。" 他还强调，美联储不会在初级拍卖中购买债券。就最近美国国债市场的抛售，沃勒作出了评论。他表示，从金融市场 参与者那里听到了关于共和党税改法案的担忧："他们本以为会看到更多的财政克制，但现在并未看到。" 由于整体 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may begin to lower interest rates in the second half of 2025 if tariffs on trade partners are reduced to around 10% [1] - The recent tax reform bill proposed by the Trump administration has raised concerns about the fiscal outlook of the U.S., leading to a sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [2] - The S&P 500 index has shown volatility after a significant sell-off, with major tech companies like Google rebounding [3] Group 2 - Market participants are worried that the tax reform bill, despite passing the House, will further increase the already growing fiscal deficit [6] - Uncertainty surrounding trade policies and fiscal outlook has led to renewed market volatility, with high bond yields becoming a focal point [6] - Despite rising price pressures, U.S. business activity and output expectations have improved, although existing home sales have unexpectedly declined [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown overall profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant performance differentiation among sub-sectors. The gold and copper-aluminum sectors benefited from rising metal prices, while the energy metals sector experienced a substantial profit decline [5][6] - In 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector achieved a revenue of 3.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.73%, and a net profit of 147.13 billion yuan, up 2.61% year-on-year. The gross margin was 11.46%, up 0.34 percentage points, while the net margin decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 4.04% [11][18] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - In 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector's revenue and profit increased year-on-year, with a revenue of 3.64 trillion yuan and a net profit of 147.13 billion yuan [11] - The gross margin improved to 11.46%, while the net margin slightly decreased to 4.04% [11] 2. Price Changes in 2024 and Q1 2025 - Gold prices saw significant increases, with an average price of 560.8 yuan/gram in 2024, up 24.4% year-on-year, and 673.5 yuan/gram in Q1 2025, up 37.2% year-on-year [24][28] - Industrial metals generally increased in price, with copper averaging 75,000 yuan/ton in 2024, up 10.5% year-on-year, and 77,000 yuan/ton in Q1 2025, up 11.5% year-on-year [28] - Energy metals prices fell significantly due to oversupply, with lithium carbonate averaging 91,000 yuan/ton in 2024, down 65% year-on-year [24][28] 3. Sector and Sub-Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.2% in 2024 and 12.0% in Q1 2025, ranking 15th and 1st among the Shenwan sectors, respectively [29] - The gold sector saw a profit increase of 29% year-on-year in 2024, while the lithium sector experienced a profit decline of 126.9% [16][22] 4. Fund Holdings - In Q1 2025, the proportion of active funds holding non-ferrous metals stocks increased by 0.71 percentage points to 3.82% [32] - The top ten active fund holdings included companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, with a focus on gold sector companies [34]

Group 1: Economic and Trade - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the third consecutive time, with concerns over the unpredictability of Trump's tariff policies being a major issue [4] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing that government debt is expected to reach 134% of GDP by 2035, leading to increased concerns over U.S. debt risks and a 0.8% drop in the dollar index [5] Group 2: Technology and Society - A new microorganism species named "Tian Gong Nier Jun" was discovered in samples collected by astronauts from the Chinese space station, marking a breakthrough in space life sciences [6] - The first "Mount Everest Dialogue" concluded in Nepal, where a Chinese scientist proposed establishing a cross-border disaster warning system due to significant glacier melting in the Tibetan Plateau, which has seen a 15% reduction in glacier area since the 20th century [7] Group 3: International Relations and Controversies - China's Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing is set to visit Russia to promote local cooperation in energy and agriculture, while another Vice Premier is attending the World Health Assembly in Switzerland [8] - Indonesia's purchase of 42 French "Rafale" fighter jets for $8.1 billion has raised performance concerns, with experts questioning the aircraft's effectiveness in complex electromagnetic environments [10]

金十数据5月18日讯，日本共同社18日发布的民意调查结果显示，对于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普第二次执 政的表现，现在日本国内大约81%民众感到"焦虑多于希望"。关于对本届美国政府感到"焦虑"的缘由， 上述八成受访者中，有42%选择特朗普关税政策对自由贸易产生的影响，41%选择特朗普本人行事作风 的不可预测性。这项关于日本民众对国际事务看法的民调3月4日至4月14日进行，覆盖日本250个地区的 3000名18岁以上人员，最终收回1867份有效答卷。（新华社） 日本民调：八成受访者对特朗普政府"焦虑多于希望" ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rise on May 14, with all three major indices increasing by over 2%. The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.3% to 23,640.65 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 2.47% to 8,593.07 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 2.13% to 5,381.78 points [2]. Financial Sector Performance - Major financial stocks saw a substantial surge, particularly in the insurance and Chinese brokerage sectors. Notable gains included China Pacific Insurance rising nearly 8%, with China Life and China Taiping both increasing by over 6%. In the brokerage sector, Hongye Futures surged over 12%, while other firms like Xingsheng International and GF Securities rose by 9% and 6%, respectively [4][9]. Technology Sector Performance - Large technology stocks collectively performed well, with Baidu increasing by over 4%, Alibaba and JD.com both rising by over 3%, and Tencent gaining nearly 3%. Internet healthcare stocks also showed strength, with JD Health and ZhongAn Online both rising over 5% [4][6]. Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive sector continued its upward trend, with Leap Motor increasing by over 6% to reach a new high. Other notable gains included BYD and Li Auto, both rising over 4%, while XPeng and NIO increased by over 3% [5][10]. Regulatory Impact - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) recently released a plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, which is expected to drive capital flows towards the brokerage sector. The new regulations may lead fund managers to allocate more resources to sectors with lower current allocations, particularly those with higher benchmark weights [9].

panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040006 宏观经济点评 2025 年 05 月 14 日 关税对美国通胀冲击或已初显端倪 ——美国 4 月 CPI 点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 2025 年 4 月最新通胀数据。其中 CPI 同比上升 2.3%，环比上 升 0.2%，均不及市场预期；核心 CPI 同比上升 2.8%，基本符合市场预期；环 比上升 0.2%，不及市场预期。 通胀水平再度回落，但核心通胀基本稳定 1. 总体通胀再次下降，且环比上升幅度不及预期。美国 4 月 CPI 同比上升 2.3%，环比上升 0.2%；核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%，环比上升 0.2%。总的看，美 国通胀连续 3 个月回落，但核心通胀不再同步回落，且环比增速开始向上，虽 然幅度不及预期，但市场对美国通胀的担忧或难进一步缓解。往后看，随着特 朗普关税政策 ...