请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 4 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周三，ICE 美棉上涨 1.46%，报收 66.51 美分/磅，CF505 下跌 3.56%，报收 12585 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比下降 51705 手 38.98 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14283 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下跌 42 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14464 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日下降 130 元/吨。国际市场方面，特朗普关税政策仍是市场关注焦点，有消息 | | | | 称特朗普将暂缓加征部分国家的关税，期限约 90 天。消息一出，美分析师下调美 | 震荡偏 | | | 联储年内降息次数的预估，美股指上行，美棉价格随之走强。美对外关税政策最终 | | | | 会如何演变尚未可知，需密切关注。国内市场方面，市场情绪仍在逐渐发酵，一方 | 弱 | | | 面是美关税政策影响我国纺服产品出口，另一方 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing significant volatility, but it shows resilience compared to global markets, with some indices performing relatively well despite a weak overall trend [1][2] - The market is in an adjustment phase due to the impact of global economic conditions and the Trump tariff policy, which has led to liquidity risks and a contraction in global trade [2] Investment Opportunities - The consumer sector is highlighted as a key area of interest, particularly value blue-chip and essential consumer goods, which have low valuations after recent market adjustments [3] - The seed agriculture sector is noted for its potential absolute return elasticity, benefiting from China's countermeasures against the U.S. and having solid fundamental support [3] Export Challenges - The export chain is expected to experience differentiation, with risks already priced in for direct exports to the U.S., while concerns arise for transshipment trade due to new tariffs on ASEAN countries [4] - Manufacturing companies with strong overseas layouts may benefit from the current trade dynamics, presenting investment opportunities for value reassessment [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The international gold price has shown a short-term increase, currently at $3028.81 per ounce, with a rise of 0.71% [2] - The price opened at $3012.82, reaching a high of $3035.58 and a low of $3007.31, indicating volatility in the market [2] - President Trump is focusing on the Federal Reserve, pushing for quicker interest rate cuts to alleviate economic pressure, which may impact gold prices [2] - Despite a recent downward trend in daily gold prices, the critical support level at $3000 has not been breached, suggesting a potential for upward movement [3][5] - The current market sentiment remains bullish, with a recommendation to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy, targeting resistance levels between $3038 and $3043 [5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil futures rose by $0.01 to $73.01 per barrel, while WTI increased by $0.01 to $69.12 per barrel [6] - Concerns over Trump's tariffs potentially slowing economic growth and oil demand are prevalent, alongside supply restrictions due to sanctions on Venezuela and Iran [6] - The oil market is experiencing a mixed sentiment, with short-term upward momentum observed despite a longer-term bearish trend [7] - The recommendation for oil trading is to focus on buying on dips, with resistance levels identified between $70.0 and $70.5 and support levels between $68.2 and $67.7 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently fluctuating around 1.4320, influenced by upcoming tariff details from President Trump and mixed economic data from the US, indicating a divergence in the economic structure between services and manufacturing [1][3][8]. Economic Data Summary - The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 53.5 in March from 51.6 in February, marking the strongest expansion since December 2024 [3]. - The Services PMI increased significantly from 51.0 to 54.3, surpassing market expectations of 50.8, while the Manufacturing PMI fell from 52.7 to 49.8, below the expected 51.8 [3]. - The overall economic landscape in the US is characterized by strong services and weak manufacturing sectors [3]. Market Sentiment and Influences - Market sentiment remains cautious regarding Trump's upcoming tariff announcements, with concerns that a broader range of tariffs could heighten global trade uncertainty [3][8]. - The potential for tariff exemptions for many countries has alleviated some concerns for Canadian businesses, contributing to the relative stability of the Canadian dollar [3][8]. Technical Analysis - The USD/CAD has been trading within a range of 1.4288 to 1.4400 since mid-March, with key moving averages indicating a fierce battle between bulls and bears [4][6]. - A breakout above 1.4333 could lead to testing the previous high of 1.4400, while a drop below 1.4307 would necessitate monitoring the support at 1.4288 [4][6][8]. - The four-hour chart suggests that if the price surpasses 1.4388, it may challenge the 1.4419 level, but failure to do so could result in continued range-bound trading [6][8].

美元近期走势受多重因素影响。特朗普贸易政策可能引发经济放缓的担忧，削弱了美元吸引力;而美联储主席杰罗 姆・鲍威尔上周鹰派表态为美元提供缓冲。鲍威尔称劳动力市场稳固，通胀接近2%长期目标但略高于预期，暗示 美联储可能放缓降息节奏，支撑美元在关键水平企稳。不过，市场对2025年美联储降息路径存在分歧，限制了美元 反弹动能。 美国3月标普全球综合PMI数据周一公布，升至53.5，高于2月的51.6，为2024年12月以来最强劲扩张，主要由服务 业驱动，服务业PMI从2月的51.0升至54.3，超出预期的50.8，达三月高点。但制造业PMI表现疲软，从2月的52.7降 至49.8，低于预期的51.8与2月近三年最强增长形成反差。标普全球首席经济学家克里斯・威廉姆森指出，服务业复 苏提振整体经济，制造业疲软显示增长动能不均衡。 技术层面，USD/CAD在1.4320附近交易，短期受约1.4300的20日均线支撑。上方阻力在1.4350，若突破，可能测试 1.4380(50日均线)。 周二亚洲时段，USD/CAD汇率在1.4320附近波动，从前一交易日跌势中温和反弹。市场焦点集中于4月2日即将公布 的特朗普关税政策细节， ...