香港万得通讯社报道，7月2日，惠誉旗下BMI的分析师表示，黄金的涨势似乎已经走到了尽头，尽管金价会维持 在高位，但需要极端事件才会突破4月份的记录。 BMI的分析师写道，鉴于贸易不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势加剧、美元走软以及央行购买量不断增加，黄金仍处 于高位。然而，要想金价突破4月份创下的3500美元每盎司的历史新高，要么是中东地区爆发战争，要么是美联 储大幅降息。该机构维持其对2025年黄金年平均价格的预测为3100美元每盎司。 在2025年4月，现货黄金达到历史高点3500美元每盎司。随后即使中东局势扰动，金价再也没有突破这一记录。 在BMI发布报告看空黄金之前，花旗是首家看空金价走势的机构。 6月中旬，花旗报告称，黄金的需求将下降，金价预计在未来几个季度将跌破3000美元每盎司，在花旗集团的基 本预测中（概率为60%），金价预计将在下一季度巩固在每盎司3000美元上方，然后走低。该行表示，"到2026 年下半年，黄金将回到每盎司约2500-2700美元水平"。 BMI预计，2025年第二季度和第三季度，黄金价格将在3000-3400美元每盎司之间震荡。 7月1日，花旗重申看空黄金未来走势的观点，称随着中 ...

金十数据7月2日讯，惠誉旗下BMI的分析师表示，黄金的涨势似乎已经走到了尽头。他们写道，鉴于贸 易不确定性、地缘政治紧张局势加剧、美元走软以及央行购买量不断增加，黄金仍处于高位。 然而， 要想金价突破4月份创下的3500美元/盎司的历史新高，要么是中东地区爆发战争，要么是美联储大幅降 息。BMI维持其对2025年黄金年平均价格的预测为每盎司3100美元。 惠誉旗下BMI：黄金的涨势似乎已经走到了尽头 ...

3. 市场供需：黄金市场呈现分裂景象，美国市场金条和金币供过于求，投资者抛售；而亚太地区对金条 和金币需求强势增长，中国市场同比增长12%。全球央行对黄金增持意愿依然强劲，超90%受访央行认 为未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金。 走势点评 1. 地缘政治局势：俄乌、以伊为引导的全球地缘政治变革仍是金价偏强基础。全球地缘政治冲突不断、 经济形势复杂多变，黄金作为"避险资产"和"硬通货"，价值受广泛关注。中国、越南、印度等新兴市场 国家官方增持黄金也是金价维稳的关键。 2. 美元走势：美元走弱和避险需求持续，推动黄金期货价格连续第二天走高。不过目前美元已处于严重 超卖状态，若后续出现反弹，一方面将提高以美元计价的大宗商品购买成本，另一方面美元本身也可能 成为黄金的替代避险选择。 截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为777.1元/克，上涨0.84%。 黄金价格短期受美元走势、地缘政治和市场供需等因素影响，波动较为频繁。近期因美元走弱、避险需 求增加而上涨，但需警惕美元反弹风险。从长期来看，全球地缘政治冲突不断、经济形势复杂，以及各 国央行持续购金，为黄金价格提供支撑，上涨趋势未改。银河证券等机构认 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price is currently at $3340.27 per ounce, with a daily increase of 1.14%, reflecting a rise of $37 [1] - Market participants are awaiting new clues from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts [1] - The European Central Bank's central bank forum is taking place from June 30 to July 2, attracting attention from investors regarding speeches from major central bank leaders [1] Group 2 - The market currently estimates a 20% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, and a 77% probability for September [1] - If Powell indicates a weaker-than-expected inflation outlook, it could increase bets on Fed easing and lead to a further decline in the dollar, potentially boosting gold prices [1] - Conversely, any hawkish or cautious remarks from Powell could exacerbate the recent downward trend in gold prices [1] Group 3 - Attention is also focused on U.S. trade negotiations as the July 9 deadline approaches [2] - The JOLTS job openings report, which is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is set to be released, with economists expecting 7.3 million job openings for May, down from 7.391 million in April [2] - If gold closes above the 50-day moving average of $3320 per ounce, it may gain momentum towards the 21-day moving average of $3350 per ounce, with the next Fibonacci level at $3377 per ounce [3]

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a sudden increase, with London spot gold rising over 1% to nearly $3340 per ounce and COMEX gold futures up 1.3% to above $3350 per ounce as of July 1 [1][2] - In the first half of 2025, gold prices surged significantly, with London spot gold increasing by 25.84%, marking the best half-year performance in nearly 18 years [4] - The highest recorded price for spot gold was over $3500 per ounce on April 22, 2025, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 30% [4] Group 2 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets saw a boom in the gold and jewelry sector, with all 14 commodity gold ETFs in the A-share market rising over 23% [6] - Notable stock performances included companies like潮宏基 and 莱绅通灵, which saw their stock prices double, while others like 老铺黄金 experienced a staggering increase of 321.53% [6] Group 3 - A case study of a 75-year-old woman from Hangzhou illustrates the risks of gold investment, as she purchased gold bars at a high price only to face a decline in value shortly after [7][9] - Despite recent fluctuations, experts believe the long-term upward trend for gold prices remains intact, with potential targets reaching $3700 per ounce [10] - Factors influencing gold prices include trade negotiations, geopolitical tensions, and economic data affecting Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [10][11]

各国央行作为黄金市场的重要参与者，他们的一举一动，都会给市场带来很大的影响。其中，美联储（美国央行）的政策举措 尤为关键，其干预手段主要包括利率调整、货币政策、市场预期管理、公开市场操作及流动性工具管理。 6月金价再度冲高受阻就是例证。美联储维持利率不变并释放鹰派信号，导致金价应声回落。随后两三周进入美联储官员密集发 声期，预计将引发市场剧烈波动。 未来两月利率决议的预期 近期美联储主要官员表态显示，鲍威尔称当前政策处于有利位置，可等待更多数据再考虑调整，其措辞较之前更显积极，暗示 秋季可能降息。对于7月降息，理事沃勒和鲍曼持开放态度，而鲍威尔、威廉姆斯等六位决策者则态度谨慎。 据"美联储观察"数据，6月20日市场预计7月降息概率仅8.3%，9月概率为63.9%。到6月27日，7月降息概率升至20.7%，9月概率 则飙升至94%。目前焦点仍聚集于9月，但需留意7月降息概率的抬升。美联储通过官员密集发声引导预期，是典型的市场预期 管理手段。 【重要声明：上述内容及观点由第三方合作平台智昇提供，仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操作，风险自担。】 本文出自百利好，转载请注明。 美联储干预市场的其他手段 公开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for gold prices to reach 1000 yuan per gram in the second half of 2025, analyzing current market dynamics, core driving factors, and risks involved [1]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - Continued demand for safe-haven assets due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, such as the Middle East situation and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which maintain gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset [1]. - Global central banks are accelerating "de-dollarization," with 95% planning to increase gold reserves by 2025, driving up demand for gold [1]. - Expectations of monetary policy easing, particularly a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half of 2025, which would weaken the dollar and benefit gold [2]. - Resilience of inflation, where persistent global inflation would highlight gold's anti-inflation properties [3]. - Supply-demand imbalance, with limited gold reserves that can be mined for about 16 years and a slow increase in mined gold, while investment demand surged, with a 29% increase in global gold ETF holdings in 2024 and a 24.54% year-on-year increase in domestic gold bar consumption [4]. Group 2: Risks Pressuring Gold Price Increase - Short-term correction pressure due to technical adjustments, as evidenced by a drop of over 160 USD in international gold prices in June 2025, leading to a nearly 50 yuan per gram decline in domestic gold jewelry prices [5]. - Market sentiment reversal could occur if geopolitical tensions ease or if U.S. economic data exceeds expectations, potentially triggering profit-taking [6]. - Policy expectations may not materialize; if inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve might delay interest rate cuts, negatively impacting gold prices [7]. - Weak physical consumption, with domestic gold jewelry consumption expected to decline by 24.69% year-on-year in 2024, as high gold prices suppress demand [8]. Group 3: Feasibility Analysis for 1000 yuan/gram Target - Historical reference indicates a medium probability (50%) for gold prices to exceed 1000 yuan per gram if the Federal Reserve cuts rates, geopolitical tensions escalate, and central bank purchases exceed expectations [9]. - A high probability (40%) scenario suggests gold prices will fluctuate between 780-950 yuan per gram, driven by policy and sentiment [9]. - A low probability (10%) scenario indicates a deep correction if global risks diminish and the dollar strengthens [9]. Group 4: Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Conservative households should allocate 5%-10% of their assets to gold, equating to 5,000 to 10,000 yuan for a 1 million yuan asset base [12]. - Avoid chasing high prices, as current gold prices are at historical highs, presenting greater risks than rewards [13]. - Suggested investment tools include physical gold bars for long-term inflation protection, gold ETFs for swing trading, and paper gold for short-term leveraged operations, each with associated risks [14]. - Recommended operational discipline includes staggered buying if gold prices drop below 750 yuan per gram and setting stop-loss orders at a 10% decline while locking in profits at every 10% increase [15]. Conclusion - A breakthrough to 1000 yuan per gram requires multiple favorable conditions to align, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a temporary touch of this price point but unlikely to sustain [16]. - A more neutral outlook indicates a likely range of 800-950 yuan per gram with volatility exceeding 25% warranting caution [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are on an upward trend, recently surpassing the $3,320 mark, with potential targets at $3,350 and $3,400 if key resistance levels are broken [1][5] - The US dollar continues to decline due to concerns over increasing government deficits and uncertainties regarding trade agreements, reaching a near four-year low against the euro [3][4] - The US Dollar Index (DXY) closed down nearly 0.5% at 96.77, amidst internal disagreements within the Republican Party regarding President Trump's proposed tax and spending plan, which is projected to increase national debt by $3.3 trillion [4] Group 2 - Recent trading patterns show that gold has rebounded after touching support levels in its upward trend channel, indicating strengthened bullish momentum and a potential target of $3,400 [5] - The daily chart suggests that gold prices have returned above the 60-day moving average, reinforcing bullish prospects, while the weekly chart indicates that the market remains in a tug-of-war phase with significant retracement demand [4][5] - Short-term trading strategies should focus on a range-bound approach, with key support levels at $3,306 and $3,290, and resistance levels at $3,330 and $3,345 [5]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing increased expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, influenced by President Trump's pressure on the Fed [1][2] - Gold prices have shown a positive trend, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.83% to $3315.00 per ounce, and gold ETFs seeing significant inflows [1] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with expectations of a potential rate cut later this year and three cuts anticipated next year [1][2] Group 2 - Upcoming negotiations on tariffs between the U.S. and other countries are expected to create volatility in market sentiment, impacting economic conditions [2] - The Fed is concerned that increased tariffs could lead to rising inflation, while Trump is advocating for rapid interest rate cuts, raising questions about the Fed's independence [2] - The complexity of macroeconomic and political factors may lead to potential missteps in the Fed's monetary policy, posing risks to the U.S. economy and inflation control [2]

智通财经7月1日电，花旗表示，由于中东地缘政治局势缓和以及全球经济增长前景改善，预计黄金价格 在第三季度将在3100美元至3500美元/盎附近盘整。 ...