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国泰君安期货所长早读-20250915
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:58
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers trading outlooks for various commodities, such as "Breakout upward" for aluminum, "Weak operation" for alumina, and "Range - bound oscillation" for zinc [13]. 2. Core Views - **Macroeconomic Data**: China's August social financing scale increased by 2.57 trillion yuan, with a 590 - billion - yuan increase in RMB loans. The M2 - M1 gap reached a four - year low, indicating improved capital activation. Corporate financing demand showed marginal improvement, while consumer spending willingness remained weak [7]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may remain weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy. Supply pressure is emerging, and polyester demand is expected to weaken in Q4 [8][9]. - **Lead**: Short - term supply of lead concentrate is tight, and demand has marginally improved, supporting prices. Existing long positions can be held, and new long positions should wait for better entry points [10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to see a downward revision of non - farm employment, and silver is predicted to break out upward. Gold's trend strength is 0, and silver's is also 0 [13][17][21]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Driven by macro sentiment, copper prices are rising. Trend strength is 1 [13][23][25]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation. Trend strength is 0 [13][26][27]. - **Lead**: Demand has marginally improved, leading to price increases. Trend strength is 0 [13][29]. - **Tin**: Tin is in a range - bound oscillation. Trend strength is 0 [13][32][35]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to break out upward, alumina to operate weakly, and casting aluminum alloy to follow electrolytic aluminum. Trend strengths for all are 0 [13][36][38]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to news risks in the ore end. Stainless steel prices may oscillate. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][39][45]. Energy and Chemicals - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread strategy [13][8][9]. - **LPG**: It is expected to have a short - term narrow - range and strong - biased oscillation [13][16]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to operate weakly at a high level in the short term [13][16]. Other Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are under pressure. Trend strength is - 1 [13][46][48]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon inventories are accumulating, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For polysilicon, market information changes should be monitored. Trend strengths are - 1 for industrial silicon and 0 for polysilicon [13][49][51]. - **Iron Ore**: It is in an oscillating and repeated pattern. Trend strength is 0 [13][53][54]. - **Steel Products**: For rebar and hot - rolled coil, demand needs verification, and prices are oscillating at a low level. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][57][59]. - **Ferroalloys**: Silicon iron and manganese silicon are in wide - range oscillations. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][60][62]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices are in wide - range oscillations. Trend strengths for both are 0 [13][63][65]. - **Logs**: They are in an oscillating and repeated pattern [13][66].
黄金:下修非农就业,白银:突破上行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 01:39
Report Title - Research on precious metals futures including gold and silver [1] Core View - The report focuses on the price, trading volume, position, ETF holdings, inventory, spreads, and trend strength of gold and silver futures, as well as related macro and industry news [1][2][5] Key Points by Section 1. Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Price**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold 2510 closed at 834.22 with a daily increase of 0.41%, and its night - session closed at 834.00 with a 0.39% increase; Comex Gold 2510 closed at 3680.70 with a 0.20% increase; London Gold Spot closed at 3642.37 with a 0.30% increase [2] - Silver: Shanghai Silver 2510 closed at 10035 with a 2.42% increase, and its night - session closed at 10051.00 with a 1.22% increase; Comex Silver 2510 closed at 42.680 with a 1.46% increase; London Silver Spot closed at 42.165 with a 1.56% increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Position**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold 2510 contract trading volume was 170,217, an increase of 4,857 from the previous day, and the position was 109,267, a decrease of 5,156; Comex Gold 2510 trading volume was 147,566, a decrease of 59,573, and the position was 385,713, an increase of 230 [2] - Silver: Shanghai Silver 2510 trading volume was 628,438, an increase of 326,453, and the position was 219,328, an increase of 15,985; Comex Silver 2510 trading volume was 70,339, an increase of 11,255, and the position was 133,690, unchanged [2] - **ETF Holdings**: - SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 974.80, a decrease of 3; SLV Silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) were 15,059.74, a decrease of 8 [2] - **Inventory**: - Gold: Shanghai Gold inventory was 52,950 kg, an increase of 2,799; Comex Gold inventory (the day before yesterday) was 38,912,305 troy ounces, unchanged [2] - Silver: Shanghai Silver inventory was 1,246,569 kg, an increase of 6382; Comex Silver inventory (the day before yesterday) was 524,513,404 troy ounces, an increase of 1,384,668 [2] - **Spreads**: - Gold: The spread between Gold T + D and AU251 was - 3.88, unchanged; the cost of the spread arbitrage of buying December and selling June of Shanghai Gold was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87; the spread between Gold T + D and London Gold was 449.67, a decrease of 5.61 [2] - Silver: The spread between Silver T + D and AG2510 was 26, an increase of 14; the cost of the spread arbitrage of buying December and selling June of Shanghai Silver was 73.41, a decrease of 11.3; the spread between Silver T + D and London Silver was 5,155, a decrease of 973 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.12, a decrease of 0.01%; the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar was 1.17, unchanged; the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen was 147.86, an increase of 0.05; the exchange rate of the British pound against the US dollar was 1.21, unchanged [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - China and the US held talks on economic and trade issues in Spain, emphasizing the importance of equality and mutual benefit [2][4] - China's Ministry of Commerce launched an anti - discrimination investigation into US measures in the integrated circuit field [6] - China's new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, new loans were 590 billion yuan, the new lending rate for enterprises remained at a historical low, and the M2 - M1 gap hit a four - year low [6] - Multiple central banks, including the Fed, Canada, the UK, and Japan, will announce interest rate decisions [6] - US consumer confidence hit a four - month low, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut this week [6] - The US government is facing a "shutdown" crisis [6] - The UK and the US will sign a "breakthrough" technology agreement [6] 3. Trend Strength - Gold trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view; silver trend strength is also 0, indicating a neutral view [5]
一周要闻·阿联酋&卡塔尔|阿联酋航空10月起将部署中国杭州航线/金蝶新开卡塔尔公司迈向“AI+管理”国际化
3 6 Ke· 2025-09-15 01:20
Group 1: Airline Developments - Emirates Airlines will launch a daily passenger route from Dubai to Hangzhou starting October 26, using Airbus A350 aircraft, as part of its strategy to enhance its presence in the Chinese market [2] - Flydubai has signed an interline agreement with TAROM, enabling passengers to connect to 15 European destinations through Bucharest International Airport, reinforcing Dubai's position as a global aviation hub [3] Group 2: Economic Growth and Trade - The UAE's GDP is projected to grow by 3.9% in Q1 2025, reaching AED 455 billion (approximately USD 124 billion), with non-oil GDP contributing a record 77.3% to the overall GDP [2] - Dubai's non-oil foreign trade surged by 24% in the first half of 2025, highlighting its leading role in economic diversification despite challenges such as weak demand and rising wage pressures [3] Group 3: Real Estate Developments - Binghatti has launched the Binghatti Skyblade project in Dubai, valued at AED 2 billion (approximately USD 544 million), featuring 621 high-end residential units [4] - Sharjah's real estate transactions reached AED 270 billion (approximately USD 73 billion) in the first half of the year, attracting over 6,600 investors from 109 countries [5] - Ajman's real estate market saw a 21% increase in August 2025, with total transactions amounting to AED 1.9 billion (approximately USD 517 million) [5] Group 4: Events and Exhibitions - The 46th "Big 5 Global" exhibition will take place in Dubai from November 24 to 27, featuring over 2,800 exhibitors and 8,500 industry experts, focusing on the construction sector [4] Group 5: Investment and Innovation - Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) has made a strategic investment in PsiQuantum, participating in a USD 1 billion Series E funding round aimed at developing a commercially viable fault-tolerant quantum computer [10] - The Qatar Investment Promotion Agency showcased Qatar's strategic advantages at the 10th Belt and Road Forum, promoting investment opportunities in key sectors [6]
24小时环球政经要闻全览 | 9月15日
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-15 00:49
Market Summary - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 273.78 points, closing at 45834.22, a decline of 0.59% [2] - The Nasdaq increased by 98.03 points, closing at 22141.1, an increase of 0.44% [2] - The S&P 500 saw a slight decrease of 3.18 points, closing at 6584.29, a decline of 0.05% [2] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 301.84 points, closing at 26388.16, an increase of 1.16% [2] - The Nikkei 225 increased by 395.62 points, closing at 44768.12, an increase of 0.89% [2] Trade and Economic Policies - President Trump urged NATO countries to stop purchasing Russian oil and suggested imposing significant tariffs of 50%-100% on China to weaken its economic ties with Russia [2] - The U.S. government is pushing for the approval to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud, aiming to finalize this before the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision [3] Technology Agreements - The UK and the U.S. are preparing to sign a significant technology agreement focusing on key technologies such as AI, semiconductors, telecommunications, and quantum computing [5] International Relations - China and the U.S. held talks in Madrid regarding trade issues, indicating ongoing discussions on economic relations [6] - The U.S. Energy Secretary stated that the EU could eliminate its dependence on Russian natural gas within 6 to 12 months by importing U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) [6] Taxation and Market Regulations - South Korea decided to maintain the capital gains tax threshold at 50 million KRW, reversing plans to lower it to 10 million KRW [7] Demographics - Japan's population aged 65 and older reached 36.19 million, accounting for 29.4% of the total population, marking a historical high [8] Corporate Developments - Micron has paused all product pricing and may increase prices by 20%-30% due to significant supply shortages, affecting various memory products [11] - Uniqlo's sales in Japan surpassed 1 trillion JPY, indicating strong market performance [12]
降息周期即将重启?-20250915
申银万国期货研究· 2025-09-15 00:41
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential restart of the interest rate cut cycle in the U.S. amid economic challenges and ongoing trade negotiations between China and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points due to a weak labor market, with non-farm employment increasing by only 22,000, significantly below the expected 75,000 [2][18] - China's new social financing in August reached 2.57 trillion yuan, with new loans amounting to 590 billion yuan, indicating a tightening monetary environment [1] - The M2-M1 scissor difference in China has reached a four-year low, suggesting a shift in liquidity dynamics [1] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Gold prices are experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by inflation data and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts in the U.S. this year [2][18] - Copper prices are fluctuating due to tight supply and high smelting output, with mixed signals from various sectors such as power, automotive, and real estate [3][19] - The overall market for precious metals remains bullish, with central banks, particularly in China, continuing to increase their gold reserves [2][18] Group 3: Industry Developments - The Chinese government is implementing measures to promote private investment, focusing on easing market access and supporting new infrastructure projects [5][6] - The power equipment industry in China is expected to maintain steady growth, with traditional power equipment revenue projected to grow at around 6% annually [7] Group 4: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down by 0.59% and the Nasdaq up by 0.44%, reflecting sector-specific performance variations [4] - The Chinese capital market is entering a strategic allocation phase, with a focus on technology growth indices showing higher volatility and potential returns [9]
金十数据全球财经早餐 | 2025年9月15日
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-14 23:02
男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普:当北约国家都停止购买俄石油时,我准备对俄实施重大制裁 贝莱德高管里克·里德跻身美联储主席热门人选 G7财长拟对俄乌冲突俄罗斯支持者实施制裁和课征关税 美国能源部长:欧盟可能在6至12个月内淘汰俄罗斯天然气 英美拟签署技术协议,聚焦AI、量子计算等关键技术 内塔尼亚胡暗示将继续"清除"哈马斯领导层 中美在西班牙就有关经贸问题举行会谈 餐厅预制菜需要明示,国标草案已过审即将公开征求意见 市场盘点 上周五,因市场等待本周四的美联储利率决议,美元指数总体呈震荡趋势,最终小幅收涨0.12%,报97.62。基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.0700%,2年期美 债收益率收报3.5620%。 随着以色列空袭卡塔尔和俄罗斯无人机进入波兰领空,全球两大地缘冲突再度升级,现货黄金突破1980年通胀调整历史峰值,周线连续第四周上涨,最终收 涨0.26%,报3643.06美元/盎司;现货白银触及每盎司42.26美元的14年最高,最终收涨1.53%,报42.16美元/盎司。 乌克兰 ...
英美下周签署“突破性”科技协议,AI、量子计算在内,币圈游说“区块链”也应纳入
美股IPO· 2025-09-14 16:03
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming "breakthrough" technology agreement between the UK and the US focuses on collaboration in artificial intelligence and quantum computing, with significant investments expected from major US tech companies like Nvidia and OpenAI [1][2][3] Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement aims to deepen cooperation in key technology areas, including AI, semiconductors, telecommunications, and quantum computing, marking an important upgrade in existing collaborations [3] - The UK government emphasizes the natural partnership between the UK and the US, both of which have trillion-dollar tech industries [3] - During President Trump's state visit, a strong delegation of US business executives will accompany him, highlighting the focus on commercial and tech investments [3] Group 2: Investment Commitments - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang and OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman are expected to announce support for multi-billion dollar investments in the UK data center sector during the visit [2][3] - Asset management giant BlackRock plans to invest up to £500 million (approximately $678 million) in the UK data center market [3] - These investment commitments are anticipated to significantly boost the UK's digital infrastructure and send positive signals to investors [3] Group 3: Blockchain Advocacy - A coalition of industry associations is urging the UK government to include blockchain technology in the agreement, warning that excluding digital assets could hinder the UK's ability to shape future financial standards [2][4][5] - The coalition includes organizations like the UK Cryptoasset Business Council and UK Finance, which have expressed concerns about the UK's lag in crypto asset regulation compared to the EU, US, and parts of Asia and the Middle East [5][6] - The lobbying efforts highlight the strategic importance of stablecoins and asset tokenization for both economies [5] Group 4: Regulatory Landscape - The UK's Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is consulting on a regulatory framework for crypto assets, aiming to accept license applications next year [6] - The lobbying groups warn of a fragmented regulatory environment that could reduce opportunities for UK companies in the transatlantic market and increase competitive pressures [6] - The UK government has indicated plans to collaborate with US officials on regulatory frameworks for the crypto industry [6]
量子计算:英伟达持续投资,多技术路线并进
Guotou Securities· 2025-09-14 09:53
Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" [5] Core Insights - NVIDIA has made significant investments in three quantum computing companies, indicating a strong belief in the industry's future potential [3][11] - The quantum computing sector is advancing through multiple technological routes, including superconducting, ion trap, photonic, and neutral atom technologies [3][13] - Recent funding rounds for companies like Quantinuum, QuEra, and PsiQuantum highlight the growing interest and investment in quantum computing, with valuations reaching $10 billion for Quantinuum and $7 billion for PsiQuantum [1][2][12] Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - NVIDIA's recent investments include a $600 million funding round for Quantinuum, which is expected to accelerate the development of its new quantum computing system, Helios [1] - QuEra has expanded its $230 million Series B funding with NVIDIA's investment, focusing on neutral atom quantum computing [2] - PsiQuantum completed a $1 billion Series E funding round, aiming to build the world's first commercially viable fault-tolerant quantum computer [2][12] Market Performance - The computer industry index rose by 4.26% this week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component [15] - The overall performance of the computer sector has shown significant gains, with a year-to-date increase of 32.53% [16] Important News - The emergence of new quantum computing companies, such as Infleqtion, which plans to go public via SPAC, signals a shift towards commercialization in the quantum technology space [22] - Major contracts in AI infrastructure, such as Microsoft's $17.4 billion deal with Nebius and Oracle's $300 billion agreement with OpenAI, reflect the increasing demand for advanced computing capabilities [22]
英美下周签署“突破性”科技协议,AI、量子计算在内,币圈游说“区块链”也应纳入
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-14 04:01
Group 1 - The upcoming "breakthrough" technology cooperation agreement between the UK and the US will focus on advanced fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, expected to be signed during President Trump's state visit to the UK [1][2] - The agreement aims to deepen collaboration in key technology areas, with the UK government emphasizing the importance of AI and quantum computing in transforming lives and improving public services [2] - Major US tech companies, including Nvidia and OpenAI, are expected to announce significant investment commitments in the UK data center sector, potentially injecting billions into the digital infrastructure [1][2] Group 2 - Industry groups in the UK are urging the government to include blockchain technology in the agreement, warning that excluding digital assets could lead to the UK being marginalized in shaping future financial standards [3][4] - The letter from various industry associations highlights the strategic importance of stablecoins and asset tokenization for both economies, noting that the US has made regulatory progress in this area [4] - The UK is currently lagging behind the EU, US, and parts of Asia and the Middle East in terms of comprehensive regulations for the crypto asset sector, which poses risks for UK companies in a fragmented regulatory environment [4]
英美拟签署技术协议 聚焦AI、量子计算等关键技术
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-14 00:24
Group 1 - The UK and the US are preparing to sign a landmark technology agreement aimed at enhancing cooperation in their multi-trillion dollar tech industries [1] - The partnership will focus on key technologies including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, telecommunications, and quantum computing [1] - The agreement is part of President Trump's upcoming state visit to the UK, which will last for three days [1] Group 2 - A delegation of US executives, including NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang and OpenAI's Sam Altman, will accompany President Trump on his visit [1]