Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat due to ongoing conflicts with President Trump, which could have serious implications for both the U.S. and global economies [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra defended the independence of the Federal Reserve while acknowledging that it has made many mistakes [1] - Becerra stated that the Federal Reserve should be independent, but he also criticized its recent actions, including the costly renovations at its Washington headquarters [1] Group 2: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - President Trump recently dismissed Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook, following allegations of mortgage fraud against her [2] - Cook's supporters argue that the fraud allegations are a pretext for Trump to appoint an ally to the Federal Reserve to further his policy agenda [2] - Becerra expressed surprise at the lack of independent review of the Federal Reserve's actions and highlighted the distinction between Cook's denial of wrongdoing and the President's authority to dismiss her [2] Group 3: Market Reactions - Becerra dismissed claims that the market is being affected by Trump's actions, noting that the S&P index has reached new highs and bond yields remain strong [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses concerns regarding the influence of the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, particularly after the potential confirmation of Stephen Miran as a Fed governor, which could undermine the Fed's independence and credibility [2][5][6]. Group 1: Impact of Trump's Administration on the Federal Reserve - A survey of 94 economists indicates that many believe the Trump administration's pressure on the Federal Reserve could lead to a loss of its independence, with 89 participants stating that the ongoing conflict has already damaged the Fed's credibility [6]. - Over a quarter of economists worry that by 2029, the Fed may struggle to maintain its role in keeping borrowing costs free from political influence [6]. - 52% of respondents expect a shift in the Fed's focus after Powell's term ends, prioritizing government borrowing costs and employment over price stability [6]. Group 2: Economic Predictions and Concerns - Economists describe the outlook for U.S. monetary policy as "bad," "chaotic," and "disastrous," with 42% believing Trump's actions could trigger strong inflationary pressures [5][7]. - The potential loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds is seen as a significant risk by 35% of the surveyed economists [7]. - The article highlights that since 1951, the Fed has had the authority to set interest rates free from political pressure, despite past presidential calls for lower borrowing costs [9]. Group 3: Upcoming Events and Market Reactions - Stephen Miran's confirmation hearing is scheduled for September 4, with expectations that it may pass quickly before the FOMC meeting on September 16-17 [2][11]. - The market's reaction to Miran's nomination has been relatively calm, although there are concerns about potential aggressive questioning from Democrats regarding the administration's influence on the Fed [10][11]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting is estimated at 84%, following dovish comments from Powell [12].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns are rising regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve amid President Trump's attacks, leading to increased discussions about reducing exposure to U.S. assets among foreign investors [1][2]. Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Foreign investors are increasingly discussing the need to reduce their exposure to U.S. assets due to concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence [2]. - U.S. domestic investors are less motivated to reallocate funds away from U.S. assets, attributed to a sense of complacency [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - There is a lack of evidence supporting inflation driven by tariffs, despite average tariffs nearing 20% [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence may lead to a sharp rise in long-term interest rates, potentially undermining hopes of alleviating U.S. debt repayment pressures [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The stability of the $37 trillion U.S. bond market is at risk due to increasing uncertainty, with potential liquidity panic in the short-term bond market as international investors signal a desire to limit exposure to long-term U.S. bonds [3]. - Despite concerns reflected in the bond and forex markets, the U.S. stock market is currently performing well, indicating a disconnect in pricing [3].

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook raises concerns about the independence of U.S. monetary policy, which could have severe implications for both the U.S. and global economies [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on Monetary Policy - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that Trump's interference with the Federal Reserve could undermine the independence of U.S. monetary policy, potentially destabilizing the U.S. economy and affecting global economic balance [1][3]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is considered crucial for maintaining the U.S. economy's stability and its position in the global economy, as political interference can lead to inflation, currency depreciation, and stock market declines [3]. Group 2: Legal and Political Context - Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook is unprecedented in U.S. history, as it marks the first time a president has sought to remove a sitting Federal Reserve governor, which may lead to legal challenges up to the Supreme Court [3]. - Cook has filed a lawsuit to prevent her dismissal, and it remains uncertain whether federal courts will agree that a criminal transfer without actual charges meets the "for cause" standard for removing a Federal Reserve governor [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Key inflation indicators, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), have remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target throughout the year, with July PCE showing a year-over-year increase of 2.6% and core PCE rising to 2.9% [4]. - The July CPI data indicated a year-over-year inflation rate of 2.7%, with core CPI increasing by 3.1%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [4]. Group 4: Market Expectations - Market expectations indicate a 89.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will lower the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate range of 4.25% to 4.5% stands at 10.3% [5].

美国财长贝森特：美联储是独立的，且应当保持独立，但美联储确实也犯过许多错误。如果抵押贷款指 控属实，美联储理事Lisa Cook应该被免职或辞职，她没有否认这些指控。令人惊讶的是美联储尚未对 针对Cook的指控进行独立审查。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has been performing strongly since April, with expectations of reaching 4,000 points this year, which correlates with the strengthening of the RMB against the USD [1][2]. Group 1: A-share Market Performance - The A-share market has surged, reaching a peak of 3,900 points, leading to widespread confidence in surpassing 4,000 points within the year [1]. - As of August 21, foreign institutional investors held approximately 2.5 trillion RMB in A-shares, reflecting an 8% increase from the end of 2024 [8]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The offshore RMB exchange rate against the USD has risen to 7.12, indicating a correlation with the A-share market's performance [2]. - A rising economy typically leads to higher asset returns, which in turn supports the appreciation of the currency [3][6]. - The increase in asset returns due to a booming economy results in a higher demand for RMB, thereby driving up its value [7]. Group 3: External Influences on Currency Strength - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially impacting the credibility of the USD [10]. - A decline in the credibility of the USD could benefit other currencies, including the RMB, contributing to its recent strength [11].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 40% [1][4]. Price Movement - As of September 1, the spot silver price reached $40.628 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 2.36% [1][2]. - The highest price recorded during the day was $40.754, with a trading range of 3.13% [2]. - In comparison, gold prices also hit a new high since April, with spot gold reaching $3489.852 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 1% [2][3]. Market Drivers - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including macroeconomic conditions, policy influences, and the inherent volatility of the commodity [4]. - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by softening U.S. employment data and dovish remarks from Fed officials, have bolstered the precious metals sector [4]. - Concerns regarding potential U.S. tariffs on silver imports, following the U.S. Geological Survey's inclusion of silver in its critical minerals list, have also contributed to market tension [4]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The questioning of the Federal Reserve's independence and ongoing geopolitical conflicts have further triggered increases in gold and silver prices [5]. - The ongoing military rearmament in Europe and the U.S. re-industrialization efforts are expected to boost industrial demand for silver [5]. - Data indicates that silver ETFs have seen net inflows for seven consecutive months, the longest streak since 2020, reflecting strong investor confidence in silver's future [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that after breaking the $40 per ounce barrier, silver may test resistance levels between $44 and $45 per ounce, maintaining a strong upward trend [6]. - Despite the positive long-term outlook, the rapid price increase has raised caution among some institutions, suggesting potential profit-taking and volatility in the near term [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of President Trump's actions against Federal Reserve Board member Cook, highlighting concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential politicization of monetary policy [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The article emphasizes that if the President can arbitrarily dismiss dissenting members of the Federal Reserve, it undermines the institution's independence [1]. - It suggests that the Federal Reserve's decisions would no longer be based on economic data but rather on the whims of the White House, which could lead to a loss of credibility in monetary policy [1]. Group 2: Political Motivations - Trump's timing in targeting Cook is seen as an attempt to influence the Federal Reserve to adopt more favorable monetary policies, such as interest rate cuts, to boost his electoral prospects [1]. - The article indicates that Cook has become a victim in the power struggle between the presidency and institutional governance [1]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The commentary from U.S. media and international experts suggests that the rule of law is at risk if the President begins to investigate and threaten officials who express differing opinions [1]. - The article reflects a broader concern that the U.S. system, often viewed as robust, may be more fragile than previously thought, particularly in the context of institutional checks and balances [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's direct comments on the Federal Reserve, emphasizing his demand for "absolute integrity" from the Fed and his readiness to take legal action, which raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's remarks about the Federal Reserve's leadership and his mention of potential successors indicate a strategy to undermine the current leadership while reassuring the market [1] - The article highlights the tension between Trump and Fed Chair Powell, suggesting that Trump's actions may be seen as an attack on the Fed's autonomy [1] Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump has been advocating for interest rate cuts, citing high housing prices and debt pressures, but economists believe that merely lowering rates will not address the budget deficit [1] - Reports from Deutsche Bank and Bank of America warn that if the Fed becomes a "helper" to the Treasury, it could lead to a loss of market confidence in the dollar, posing a significant risk [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's aggressive strategy towards the Federal Reserve may backfire, raising concerns about the Fed's ability to control inflation through interest rate setting [1][12]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve - A recent survey of 94 economists indicates that many fear the Trump administration's "attacks" on the Federal Reserve will become evident after Chairman Powell's term ends next year [1]. - Economists warn that the Fed could become a "puppet" of the government, with the outlook for U.S. monetary policy described as "bad," "chaotic," and "disastrous" [3][7]. - Since taking office, Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed, particularly targeting Powell for not lowering interest rates [3]. Group 2: Credibility and Independence Concerns - Among the surveyed economists, 89 out of 94 believe the ongoing disputes have damaged the Fed's credibility [5]. - Over a quarter of economists are concerned that by 2029, the Fed may not fulfill its duty to keep U.S. borrowing costs free from political influence [5]. - 42% of respondents believe Trump's attacks could lead to strong inflationary pressures, while 35% see potential loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds as a significant risk [8]. Group 3: Future Projections - More than a quarter (28%) of economists remain cautiously optimistic, predicting that while the Fed's independence may decrease by 2029, it will still be able to perform its duties [6]. - A majority (52%) expect a shift in the Fed's focus after Powell's term, prioritizing lower government borrowing costs and employment, potentially at the expense of price stability [6]. - Economists agree that a weakened independence of the Fed would harm the largest economy globally, emphasizing that independence is crucial for lower and more stable inflation [7]. Group 4: Political Dynamics and Market Reactions - The upcoming confirmation hearing for Trump's latest Fed nominee, Miran, is expected to face scrutiny from Democrats, particularly regarding the dismissal of Cook and pressure on the Fed to lower rates [11]. - Despite the political tensions, the market's reaction to Cook's dismissal was muted, indicating a complex investor sentiment [11]. - The Fed's internal voting dynamics are likely to remain stable, with a potential vote ratio of 9:3 even if Cook is replaced, suggesting limited changes in decision-making trends [11].