Group 1 - Several village banks in Zhejiang, Guizhou, and Jilin have announced reductions in deposit interest rates, with decreases ranging from 10 to 20 basis points [1] - Jiangsu Bank has lowered its three-year fixed deposit rate from 1.85% to 1.75%, a reduction of 10 basis points, while Zhejiang Shengzhou Ruifeng Village Bank has reduced its five-year fixed deposit rate to 1.3% [1] - The four major banks' two-year, three-year, and five-year deposit rates are currently at 1.05%, 1.25%, and 1.30%, respectively, which were adjusted in May [1] Group 2 - The trend of interest rate cuts typically starts with large banks lowering their deposit rates, followed by smaller banks [3] - Smaller banks have been quicker to follow the rate cuts initiated by larger banks, with some even offering lower rates than the major banks, such as Beijing Huairou Rongxing Village Bank's three-year and five-year rates at 1.20% [4] Group 3 - A new round of interest rate cuts may be on the horizon as smaller banks have nearly completed their adjustments [5] - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for three consecutive months, leading to speculation about potential rate cuts in September [6] Group 4 - The likelihood of a rate cut in September hinges on two main factors: the actions of the Federal Reserve and domestic economic data [8] - The Federal Reserve has maintained its interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% as of July, with employment and inflation data being critical indicators for future rate decisions [10] Group 5 - Market analysis suggests a 92% probability of a rate cut in September, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction, potentially increasing to 50 basis points if employment data worsens [10] - Warren Buffett's recent investments in housing-related stocks indicate a belief that lower interest rates are forthcoming, which could signal a turning point for the housing industry [13] Group 6 - Domestic economic data shows underperformance, with July's consumption growth at 3.7%, industrial value-added growth at 5.7%, and fixed asset investment growth at only 1.6%, all below market expectations [14][15] - The reliance on exports is insufficient to support economic growth, and uncertainties in exports further complicate the outlook for September's LPR adjustments [15]

Core Viewpoint - Former St. Louis Fed President and candidate for Fed Chair, Brad, calls for a 100 basis point rate cut this year [1] Group 1 - Brad has been in contact with Treasury Secretary Basant regarding his candidacy for Fed Chair and plans to possibly arrange a meeting after Labor Day on September 1 [1] - The decision on whether to further cut rates next year will depend on data performance, according to Brad [1] - Brad emphasized the necessity of maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [1]

Group 1 - The United States and the European Union have reached an agreement on a framework for a trade agreement, which includes 19 key points covering various sectors such as agriculture, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductors, energy, and digital trade barriers [4][5]. - The agreement specifies that the U.S. will not impose tariffs exceeding 15% on most EU goods, including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and wood products [6]. - The EU has committed to eliminating tariffs on all U.S. industrial products and providing preferential market access for a wide range of U.S. seafood and agricultural products [6][10]. Group 2 - The U.S. and EU aim to enhance mutual investment, with total investments exceeding $5 trillion, and European companies expected to invest an additional $600 billion in strategic sectors in the U.S. by 2028 [7]. - The EU plans to significantly increase its procurement of military and defense equipment from the U.S. and both parties have agreed to work on reducing non-tariff barriers [7]. - The U.S. and EU are committed to addressing unreasonable digital trade barriers and recognizing each other's standards in the automotive sector [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Kansas City Fed President, Esther George, believes that inflation risks are slightly higher than employment market risks, indicating that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - Esther George stated that as the dual mandate goals are approached, it becomes increasingly difficult to determine the direction of policy rates [1]. - The ongoing debate about when to lower interest rates hinges on whether individual policymakers perceive the current policy as overly tight [1]. - George believes that while the policy is slightly tight, the Fed is on the right path [1]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment - Recent data shows that inflation in the U.S. has accelerated in recent months, with evidence that businesses can pass some rising import costs onto consumers [1]. - The employment market has shown signs of slowing down during the summer, with an average addition of only 35,000 jobs per month over the past three months [1].

Group 1: Gold Market Reaction - On August 21, gold prices experienced a sudden drop, with London gold falling over $20, settling at $3331.38 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.5% [1] Group 2: US-EU Trade Agreement - On August 21, the White House announced that the US and EU reached an agreement on a trade framework, which includes 19 key points covering various sectors such as agricultural products, automobiles, aircraft, semiconductor chips, energy, and digital trade barriers [3] - The agreement stipulates that the EU will eliminate tariffs on all US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US agricultural products, including nuts, dairy, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, processed foods, seeds, soybean oil, and meat products [3] - The US will apply the higher of the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate or a 15% tariff rate on most goods from the EU, which includes automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber [3] Group 3: Future Tariff Adjustments - Starting September 1, 2025, the US will only apply MFN tariffs to certain EU products, including non-renewable natural resources, all aircraft and aircraft parts, and generic drugs and their raw materials [4] - The US and EU have agreed to consider additional sectors and products that are important to their economies and value chains for inclusion under MFN tariffs [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Impact - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes indicated concerns among officials regarding the inflation outlook in the US, leading to reduced market expectations for a rate cut in September [5] - The minutes revealed that many officials noted the overall inflation rate in the US remains above the long-term target of 2%, with tariff impacts becoming more evident in economic data [6] - During the July monetary policy meeting, 9 out of 12 voting members supported maintaining interest rates, while two members expressed differing opinions on the decision, marking a notable occurrence in over 30 years [6]

Group 1 - The former St. Louis Fed President, Brad, is a leading candidate for the next Fed Chair and has been in contact with Treasury Secretary Basant regarding his candidacy [1] - Brad plans to potentially arrange a meeting after Labor Day on September 1 to discuss his candidacy further [1] - The decision on whether to lower interest rates further next year will depend on economic data performance, according to Brad [1] - Brad emphasized the importance of maintaining the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [1]

Core Viewpoint - Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has discussed the Federal Reserve chair position and indicated that interest rates are currently high, with a potential for a 100 basis point cut by 2026 depending on future data [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve must pay attention to maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency [1] - U.S. debt reflects spending issues that need to be addressed [1]

联昌国际（CIMB）经济学家发布报告指出，印度尼西亚央行（BI）可能在2025年第四季度再度下调政 策利率25个基点，将基准利率从当前水平降至4.75%。此举将是印尼央行在应对经济下行压力过程中， 延续审慎宽松立场的体现。 印尼央行20日宣布将基准利率由5.25%下调25个基点至5%。根据印尼央行理事会决议，存款利率同步由 4.5%下调至4.25%，贷款利率由6.0%降至5.75%。这是印尼央行今年以来的第四次降息，出乎市场预 料。（新华财经） ...

来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：8月21日凌晨两点，美联储公布7月会议纪要。多数美联储官员在会议中强调，通胀风险已压倒对劳动力市场的担忧，关税政策加剧了 委员会内部的分歧。 政策制定者将利率维持不变，是因为上半年的经济活动放缓，导致市场前景不确定性升高。 会议纪要显示，数名官员认为通胀与就业的风险大致平衡，另外有官员则更担忧劳动力市场，沃勒和鲍曼以就业市场恶化为由投下反对票。 智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，纪要公布后，9月降息25个基点的概率由92%回落至81%。目前市场仍在聚焦鲍威尔在央行年会的讲话。 技术面：日线上，昨日收阳线，价格维持震荡格局。1小时级别，价格突破60/120日均线，市场出现转势信号，今日关注下方支撑3335美元，上方 关注压力3358美元。 供需方面，能源机构预测，未来数月乃至2026年石油供应将远超需求。国际能源署（IEA）预计，2025年全球石油产量将增加250万桶，达到1.055 亿桶；2026年将再增加190万桶。 美国能源信息署（EIA）预计，今年和明年原油库存将大幅增加。同时，预计今年全球石油消费量为1.0374亿桶，明年为1.0444亿桶。 综合来看，昨日EIA数据库存明显减少， ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicate that nearly all decision-makers support not lowering interest rates, with only two dissenters [4] - The overall tone of the July meeting was described as "hawkish," emphasizing reliance on upcoming economic data [4] - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with ongoing debates about future rate cuts [8][11] Group 2: Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.04% and the S&P 500 down 0.24%, marking its fourth consecutive day of decline [2] - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming speech by Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which is expected to influence market sentiment [8][19] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The S&P Global is set to release the preliminary PMI data for August, with manufacturing PMI expected at 49.5 and services PMI at 54.2, indicating potential impacts on the dollar and gold prices [10][11] - A significant drop in the services PMI could negatively affect the dollar, while a rebound in manufacturing PMI above 50 could support the dollar's strength [11] Group 4: Geopolitical Developments - Russia reported significant military actions against Ukrainian forces, claiming over 1,300 casualties and the destruction of various military assets [13] - NATO confirmed its support for Ukraine during a recent defense ministers' meeting, highlighting ongoing geopolitical tensions [14][15] - In the Israel-Palestine conflict, Israel's military operations have resulted in substantial casualties, with over 62,000 reported deaths since the conflict's escalation [18]