Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices surged over 2% last week, closing above $3400 per ounce, driven by rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1][2] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Gold prices increased by $157.77 in August, marking a 4.8% rise, the best monthly performance since April [1] - As of August 29, the CME gold open interest rose by 39,208 contracts to 478,014 contracts, indicating increased bullish sentiment [8] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR GOLD TRUST, saw its holdings increase by 20.91 tons, reaching a total of 977.68 tons [8] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - The dovish tone from the Federal Reserve has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September, despite some positive economic data [2][3] - Fed officials, including Governor Waller, expressed support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, citing risks in the labor market [3][4] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is anticipated to further influence gold prices and Fed policy [1][3] Group 3: Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - President Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, contributing to bullish sentiment in the gold market [6][7] - The potential for Trump to exert greater influence over the selection of regional Fed presidents could further impact market perceptions of Fed independence [6] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold prices are testing resistance around $3453, with potential targets set between $3580 and $3780 [8] - Support levels for gold are identified at $3430-$3400, with critical support at $3380-$3360 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Economists warn that financial markets have not fully absorbed the risks posed by Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve, including high inflation and loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's intervention raises concerns that the Fed's ability to control inflation through interest rate setting may be compromised [2]. - A survey of 94 economists indicates that many fear a permanent shift in the Fed's priorities towards employment and reducing government borrowing costs after Powell's term ends [2][4]. - 52% of surveyed economists expect a shift in the Fed's policy focus towards employment and government borrowing costs at the end of Powell's term, potentially at the expense of price stability [4]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Risks - 42% of respondents believe Trump's attacks could unleash strong inflationary pressures, while 35% see loss of investor confidence in U.S. Treasury bonds as a significant risk [7]. - Only one respondent believes that Trump's attacks on Fed independence will not pose a substantial risk to the U.S. economy [10]. - Economists generally agree that a weakened Fed independence could harm the largest economy, with implications for lower and more stable inflation and financial stability [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - 82% of respondents think that financial markets have only partially or slightly absorbed the impact of the White House's interference with the Fed, while 12% believe the markets have not absorbed these attacks at all [10]. - Market reactions to the firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook were muted, contrasting with previous strong investor responses to threats against Powell [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The macro - market may continue to trade on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a favorable atmosphere, but concerns about the Fed's independence will limit the upward space. The current market supply is stable, and the focus is on the demand performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, there is some restocking at low prices, but large - scale restocking has not formed, and the inventory has not entered continuous destocking. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum has reached the upper limit of the recent oscillation range. Without a trend - setting macro - guidance or a clear fundamental orientation, the market is expected to remain in a wait - and - see state, and Shanghai Aluminum will continue to oscillate favorably [2][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 2025/8/22 | 2025/8/29 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 2622 | 2619 | - 3.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 20560 | 20715 | 155.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.8 | 7.9 | 0.1 | | | LME Spot Premium | 2.07 | 2.98 | 0.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 479525 | 481050 | 1525.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 57144 | 58629 | 1485.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 20604 | 20772 | 168.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | 30 | - 30 | - 60.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Reserve Spot Average Price | 20562 | 20712 | 150.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | 42 | 60 | 18.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 59.6 | 62 | 2.4 | tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 16628.88 | 16581.41 | - 47.5 | yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 3975.12 | 4190.59 | 215.5 | yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's dismissal of Cook raised concerns about the Fed's independence. The US Q2 real GDP annualized revised value increased by 3.3% quarter - on - quarter, higher than the expected 3.1% and the initial value of 3%. The Q2 core PCE price index annualized revised value increased by 2.5% quarter - on - quarter, consistent with the initial value but lower than the expected 2.6%. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 229,000. The eurozone economic sentiment index in August dropped to 95.2. In China, Shanghai introduced real - estate new policies, and the year - on - year decline in the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in July narrowed [4] - **Consumption end**: The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 60.7% week - on - week, but the order recovery degree of each segment varied, and the short - term downstream operating rate may still rise slowly [5] - **Inventory aspect**: On August 28, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 620,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons from last Thursday; the aluminum rod inventory was 134,000 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons from last Thursday [5] 3.3 Market Outlook The macro - market may continue to trade on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, with a favorable atmosphere, but concerns about the Fed's independence will limit the upward space. The current market supply is stable, and the focus is on the demand performance during the consumption peak season. Currently, there is some restocking at low prices, but large - scale restocking has not formed, and the inventory has not entered continuous destocking. Technically, Shanghai Aluminum has reached the upper limit of the recent oscillation range. Without a trend - setting macro - guidance or a clear fundamental orientation, the market is expected to remain in a wait - and - see state, and Shanghai Aluminum will continue to oscillate favorably [6] 3.4 Industry News - Yunnan's electrolytic aluminum output in July 2025 was 510,200 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July was 3.4142 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% [7] - The Yunnan Green and Low - Carbon Demonstration Industrial Park was completed, and the 1.93 - million - ton low - carbon aluminum B - series project of Yunnan Honghe was put into production. Currently, the first - stage capacity of 160,715 tons in the B - series has reached full production, and the transferred capacity of 378,000 tons is expected to reach full production before October 1 [7] - The retail volume of the national new - energy passenger - vehicle market in the first 24 days of August was 727,000, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 6% and 7% respectively. The new - energy retail penetration rate has reached 56.6%, and the cumulative retail volume since the beginning of the year has reached 7.182 million, a year - on - year surge of 27% [7] 3.5 Related Charts The report provides 10 charts including the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - month and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London Aluminum ratio, LME Aluminum premium/discount, Shanghai Aluminum's inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, seasonal spot premium/discount, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonal change, and aluminum rod inventory seasonal change [8][9][12][14]

Core Viewpoint - The potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump signifies a significant shift in the traditionally independent institution, aiming to exert political influence over monetary policy [1][5][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve's Independence - Trump's actions are perceived as a threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has historically operated free from political pressure to ensure effective monetary policy [1][9][13]. - Legal scholars and financial experts warn that undermining the Fed's independence could lead to long-term economic damage and loss of credibility [1][9]. Impact on Monetary Policy - If Trump successfully reshapes the Federal Reserve Board, he could gain control over critical economic levers, including interest rates and bank regulations [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve Board has the authority to set the discount rate and reserve requirements, which are essential for managing the economy [3]. Political Implications - Trump's intention to influence the Fed is seen as an attempt to make it a "rubber stamp" for presidential policy, raising concerns about future political interference in monetary decisions [5][9]. - Critics argue that this could lead to economic instability similar to that experienced in countries with authoritarian regimes [5]. Current Composition and Future Outlook - Currently, two members of the Federal Reserve Board were appointed by Trump, with potential for more vacancies, which could further his agenda [9][10]. - However, the expectation that appointed members will automatically align with Trump's views is challenged by their demonstrated independence [10][11]. Broader Economic Consequences - Analysts suggest that if Trump's influence over the Fed increases, it could lead to a departure from established monetary practices, significantly impacting markets and economic stability [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of the US dollar and the implications of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by economic slowdown and political pressures from the Trump administration [3][5][10]. Group 1: Dollar Performance - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 1.6% in August, reversing the 2.7% increase seen in July, which was the best monthly performance since January 2025 [3][5]. - Analysts expect the dollar to continue its downward trend, potentially declining by 8% for the remainder of the year and into 2026, reflecting a "bear market" trajectory [5][10]. Group 2: Political Influence on Monetary Policy - The Trump administration's threats to the Federal Reserve's independence and the validity of US economic data are undermining the attractiveness of the dollar and US assets [5][8]. - The ongoing legal battle between Trump and Fed Governor Lisa Cook could further destabilize the Fed's independence, leading to a potential shift in monetary policy that favors rate cuts [8][9]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Predictions - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed are high, with an 80% probability of a cut in September and a total of 125 basis points of cuts expected by September 2026 [10][11]. - The anticipated decline in US Treasury yields and the dollar index is likely to continue as long as rate cut expectations persist, diminishing the appeal of the dollar [10][11]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Morgan Stanley suggests that while US assets remain attractive, the uncertainty surrounding policy could lead to increased foreign currency hedging, exerting downward pressure on the dollar [11]. - The potential for a $1 trillion sell-off in dollar assets is predicted if foreign investors adjust their hedging ratios back to normal levels [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by Trump and the mild PCE data have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a rise in U.S. stocks and a decline in bond yields. However, a sell-off in technology stocks caused a reversal in stock gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices closing down by 0.10% and 0.19% respectively [1][2]. Group 1: Major Asset Movements - The announcement of Cook's dismissal raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, while the July PCE data met expectations, further increasing rate cut anticipations. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 2.53 basis points to 4.228%, and the 2-year yield decreased by 7.96 basis points to 3.617%. The dollar index dropped by 0.06% to 97.77, while spot gold prices rose by 2.26% to $3447 per ounce [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Q2 GDP revision showed a seasonally adjusted annual rate of +3.3%, exceeding the expected +3.1%. Fixed asset investment's contribution was revised up from +0.08% to +0.59%, and consumption's contribution was adjusted from +0.98% to +1.07%. Analysts have slightly raised their Q3 growth expectations, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicting +3.5% for Q3 [3][4]. Group 3: Political Developments - Trump's dismissal of Cook is unprecedented since the Federal Reserve's establishment in 1913, raising market concerns about the Fed's independence. Cook has filed a lawsuit against Trump, and the case is expected to reach the Supreme Court. Additionally, a federal appeals court ruled that Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs was illegal, although tariffs will remain in effect until October 14 [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses former President Trump's decision to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which is perceived as a strategy to exert pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1][3]. Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - Trump announced the dismissal of Lisa Cook, citing alleged fraudulent behavior in her loan applications as the reason for her removal [1]. - The dismissal is seen as part of a broader strategy to gain control over the Federal Reserve, particularly the Federal Open Market Committee, by replacing Cook and potentially other members with his allies [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the dollar index experienced a slight decline, while gold prices initially rose but later retraced some gains, indicating market concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [6]. - There is skepticism in the market regarding Trump's ability to fully control the Federal Reserve, despite the potential for significant impacts on the dollar if Cook is ultimately removed [6]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Trump believes that a weaker dollar and lower interest rates would benefit U.S. manufacturing, although former Treasury Secretary Yellen has expressed doubts about the feasibility of this outcome [8]. - The U.S. faces a significant debt burden, with projections indicating that government debt could reach 160% of GDP by 2050, raising concerns about the attractiveness of investing in the U.S. under such conditions [8].

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - International spot gold prices surged over 2% last week, closing above $3400 per ounce, marking the second consecutive week of gains [1] - In August, spot gold accumulated a rise of $157.77, achieving a 4.8% increase, the best monthly performance since April [1] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for August is anticipated to further influence gold prices following a weak report in July [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Despite some positive U.S. economic data, dovish sentiments within the Federal Reserve have increased, strengthening expectations for a rate cut in September [2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 was revised up to 3.3%, and initial jobless claims decreased to 229,000, indicating resilience in the labor market [3] - The core PCE price index for July recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, aligning with market expectations, which has further solidified the anticipation of a rate cut [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence Concerns - The recent dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump has raised questions about the Fed's independence, contributing to bullish sentiment in the gold market [6] - Trump's potential influence over the Fed's board could lead to a majority of positions being filled by his appointees, further challenging the Fed's autonomy [6] - Cook's lawsuit against her dismissal has somewhat eased market volatility, but concerns about the Fed's independence persist [7] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Gold prices have been steadily rising, with increased bullish sentiment reflected in rising positions; CME gold open interest rose by 39,208 contracts to 478,014 [8] - Speculative net long positions in COMEX gold futures increased by 6,364 contracts to 148,122 [8] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR GOLD TRUST, saw its holdings increase by 20.91 tons, reaching a total of 977.68 tons [8]

更有意思的是，特朗普把鲍威尔和理事会全拉进了被告席。这意思很明显：你们要么执行总统的决定， 要么和我一起上法庭。鲍威尔这些年夹在特朗普和拜登之间，已经够难了。这次要是听总统的，就是破 坏央行独立；不听，就是跟白宫对着干。这一招把所有人都绑在了一起。法庭成了最后的屏障。恰巧这 次主审法官是拜登任命的，之前还否了特朗普的移民政策。 外界普遍觉得，第一回合特朗普很难赢。但大家都明白，这案子肯定会一路打到最高法院。所谓的"美 国制度自愈力"，这回真要接受考验了。美联储理事可不是随便哪个职位。每一票都能影响全球金融市 场。特朗普挑这个时候发难，信号已经很明显：他要让美联储听话，让货币政策变成自己选举的工具。 眼下经济增长不理想，特朗普特别想靠降息和股市走高刷一把政绩。库克不配合，他就拿她开刀。库克 成了权力和制度博弈的牺牲品。 美国媒体和国际专家都说得很明白。如果总统能随便找理由炒掉不听话的理事，美联储独立性就完了。 以后货币政策不是看经济数据，而是看白宫心情。今天是库克，明天可能就是鲍威尔。只要总统一句 话，央行就成了总统的附庸。美国自诩为制度铁律，可现在看起来，脆弱得像玻璃。外部评论也没客 气。美国企业研究所的专家 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in maintaining its independence and credibility amid political pressures, particularly from former President Trump, and the implications for U.S. monetary policy and inflation expectations. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The Fed's independence has been a cornerstone of the U.S. dollar's international credibility since the 1951 agreement that ended the binding of Fed rates to government bond rates [1] - Trump's interventions in Fed operations have contributed to a significant decline in the dollar index, indicating a potential loss of confidence in the dollar [1] - The Fed is currently in a precarious position with declining dollar credibility and a weakening dollar exchange rate [1] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - Inflation expectations have risen sharply, with one-year and five-year expectations reaching 6.6% and 4.4%, respectively, the highest since 1981 and 1991 [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, with core CPI at 3.0%, indicating increasing inflationary pressures [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a significant increase, suggesting that supply-side inflation effects from tariffs are beginning to manifest [3] Group 3: Employment Market Trends - The U.S. job market shows signs of cooling, with a downward revision of non-farm payrolls for May and June by 253,000 jobs, a reduction of 88.5% [4] - July's initial non-farm payroll increase was only 73,000, significantly below market expectations [4] - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, but the labor participation rate has declined, indicating a potential labor supply issue [4] Group 4: Monetary Policy Challenges - Fed Chair Powell indicated potential interest rate cuts in September, citing upward inflation risks and downward employment risks [5] - The Fed's policy framework has shifted, moving away from the "flexible average inflation targeting" approach, emphasizing the need to combat inflation [6] - Powell's cautious stance reflects the delicate balance between a weakening labor market and persistent inflation pressures [6] Group 5: Political Interference and Market Reactions - Trump's aggressive trade policies and public criticism of the Fed have raised concerns about the politicization of monetary policy [9] - The potential for Trump to influence Fed decisions through appointments could undermine the Fed's independence and credibility [11] - Following Trump's dismissal of a Fed board member, market reactions included a steepening of the yield curve, indicating expectations for aggressive rate cuts [12]