不过到了四季度，风向悄悄转了。美联储虽然嘴上喊着加息，但实际迟迟没动手，反而释放出谨慎信号，加上当时全球经济低迷，中国股市波动、欧 洲债务危机没解决，钱没地方去的投资者只能往黄金里躲。更关键的是，全球央行从之前的抛售变成了悄悄增持，金价就这么被托住了，年底的均价 比年初稳了不少，为2016年的上涨埋下了伏笔。算下来，2012到2015年黄金累计跌了39%，但2015年四季度的转折，成了关键的"抄底窗口"。 黄金或将重演2015年历史！10月29日下周开启关键窗口，务必关注 今早去菜市场买菜，路过街角的老凤祥，发现平时冷清的门店居然排起了队，几位阿姨正围着柜台跟导购打听"下周会不会跌"。到公司一刷朋友圈，做 理财的朋友发了条长文，配着2015年和现在的金价走势图，提醒大家"关键窗口要来了，别重蹈当年覆辙"。就连小区超市老板都在跟顾客唠，说他去年 买的金条现在涨了不少，纠结要不要先卖了。这股讨论黄金的热乎劲儿，像极了2015年那阵——看来10月29日下周这个时间点，是真让买金人和投资 者都提起了精神。 一、先回头看：2015年黄金那波"过山车"藏着什么密码 2015年的黄金行情，至今让不少人记忆犹新，那是典型的" ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold may experience a short-term pullback due to factors such as the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but the long-term fundamentals supporting precious metals remain unchanged [1] - The initiation of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, challenges to the US dollar credit system, and the global trend of "de-dollarization" are expected to continue supporting gold prices [1] - Central bank gold purchasing trends are likely to persist, and international geopolitical situations remain uncertain, which could impact gold prices [1] Group 2 - The Gold Stock ETF (517400) tracks the SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), which selects listed companies involved in gold mining, refining, and sales from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [1] - This index has a mid-to-small market capitalization style and also includes leading companies, reflecting the overall performance of listed securities in the gold industry [1] - The index exhibits high industry concentration, which allows it to effectively represent the performance of gold-related listed companies [1]

Group 1 - The current trading price of gold T+D is around 905.90 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.48% [1] - The highest price reached was 908.16 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 890.40 CNY per gram [1] - The short-term outlook for gold T+D is leaning towards a fluctuating trend [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates resistance levels at 991-1030 CNY per gram and support levels at 890-940 CNY per gram [3] - A breakout above 1000 CNY per gram could lead to a rise towards 1010 CNY, while falling below 890 CNY may result in further declines [3] - The market is currently at a critical juncture, necessitating close monitoring of breakout movements [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current market dynamics indicate a shift in gold's role from a passive safe-haven asset to an active hedge, driven by improving global supply chain cooperation and economic signals suggesting a post-cycle phase [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global supply chain cooperation has improved significantly, with the U.S. reaching key mineral agreements and reducing tariff risks, alleviating concerns over extreme supply disruptions [2]. - This cooperation has strengthened raw material supply stability and reduced the urgent demand for traditional safe-haven assets, compressing gold's "safe-haven premium" [2]. - The recent framework for cooperation between the U.S. and Asian economies is interpreted as a positive signal for external friction reduction and industrial chain stability, boosting risk asset sentiment [2]. Group 2: Economic Signals - The latest housing price index for 20 major cities shows a year-on-year increase of only 1.6%, the lowest in over two years and below the 3% inflation level, indicating that nominal asset prices are rising while real household wealth is shrinking [2]. - The combination of high volatility in equity assets, negative real returns in housing, and a cooling job market points to a post-cycle economic phase, where gold typically transitions from a passive hedge to an active hedge asset [2]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Sentiment - Global gold ETF holdings experienced slight outflows around October 24, marking the first net withdrawal in nearly a week, although this follows eight weeks of inflows and a cumulative increase of over 15% for the year [2]. - The current outflow appears to be a "high-level adjustment" rather than a mass exit, indicating a re-pricing of gold's risk premium rather than a liquidity crisis [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The gold price has retraced from a previous high of approximately $4381.29 to around $3920, with key Fibonacci retracement levels indicating support at $3972.61 (0.618 level) and $3845.97 (0.500 level) [4]. - The current price is above the 0.500 retracement level, suggesting that while a correction is underway, the overall upward trend remains intact [4]. - If the price declines further, the $3845-$3850 range will be a critical support zone, with additional support at $3719.34 (0.382 level) and $3562.65 (0.236 level) [4]. Group 5: Technical Indicators - The MACD indicator shows significant bearish signals, with the DIFF and DEA lines forming a death cross, indicating increasing bearish momentum [5]. - The RSI has dropped from an overbought level near 80 to approximately 46.35, suggesting a shift in market control from bulls to bears, but still has room before reaching extreme oversold conditions [5]. - Overall, the technical analysis indicates that gold may continue to experience downward pressure until it tests the key support levels, with the potential for recovery if these levels hold [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the latest heavy holdings of public FOFs (Fund of Funds) as revealed in the 2025 Q3 reports, with bond funds being the primary focus, accounting for over half of the holdings [1][3] - The top five funds favored by FOFs in Q3 include Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF, Hua An Gold ETF, Ping An Zhong Dai - Zhong Gao Deng Gong Si Dai Li Cha Yin Zi ETF, Bosera Zhong Dai 0-3 Nian Guo Kai Hang ETF, and Bosera Shang Zheng 30 Nian Qi Guo Dai ETF [1][3] - As of the end of Q3, the Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF had a market value held by FOFs exceeding 3.29 billion yuan, making it the highest valued fund held by FOFs [3][4] Group 2 - The number of bond funds in the top 50 heavy holdings of FOFs reached 31, representing over half of the total, indicating a strong preference for bond investments [3] - The most increased fund in Q3 was the Hai Fu Tong Zhong Zheng Short Bond ETF, which saw an increase of 1.647 billion yuan in holdings, bringing its total to 3.29 billion yuan [4] - FOFs have also shown interest in actively managed equity funds, with the top holdings being Yi Fang Da Ke Rong and Hua Xia Chuang Xin Qian Yan A, with market values of 590 million yuan and 485 million yuan respectively [3][4] Group 3 - FOF managers have expressed confidence in the A-share market, with a focus on gold-related funds and increased allocations in technology and resource sectors [6][7] - The manager of Guotai Youxuan Lihang Fund emphasized the significant opportunity for gold and silver prices, while also noting the potential for the rare earth industry due to new regulatory policies [6] - The manager of Zhong Ou Yujian Pension 2035 Fund highlighted a long-term asset allocation strategy, maintaining optimism about consumer-related sectors and overseas bond markets [7]

过去一周黄金遭遇猛烈抛售，而随着美联储即将下调基准利率，投资者可能正错失逢低吸纳这一贵金属 的良机。鉴于市场预期美联储将在年底前再次降息，他们或许还将获得新的入场机遇。 资产管理和关键材料公司Sprott Inc.高级执行合伙人瑞安·麦金泰尔（Ryan McIntyre）指出，价格回调虽 难以避免，但黄金"仍处于长期增长的有利位置"。他强调："全球信任体系持续瓦解，正推动对独立于 其他资产与机构的资产需求。" 他在接受MarketWatch采访时进一步表示，许多西方经济体（尤其是赤字高企、联邦债务庞大的美国） 的财政前景岌岌可危，随着主权风险上升，这可能在中长期内继续"支撑黄金走势"。 周二，纽约商品交易所最活跃的12月黄金期货合约收报每盎司3983.10美元，下跌0.9%，连续三个交易 日走低。自10月20日创下4359.40美元历史收盘高点以来，金价已回调近9%。道琼斯市场数据显示，本 月黄金累计涨幅仍接近3%，年内涨幅更是高达51%。 他向MarketWatch阐释："全球资本意识到自身对美元配置过度而对黄金配置不足，因此我们预期，在经 过近期泡沫挤压后，以所有法币计价的黄金价格将继续攀升。" 美联储最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in spot gold prices, dropping nearly $500 from historical highs within a week, is attributed to easing short-term risk aversion and liquidity pressures in the silver market [1][4]. Price Movements - As of October 28, spot gold prices fell to $3,886.199 per ounce, with a significant drop from a peak of $4,381.48 per ounce on October 20, marking a decline of over 11% [2][4]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 901.38 yuan, down 4.2%, while Au99.99 fell below 900 yuan, closing at 896.60 yuan per gram, a decrease of 3.67% [1][3]. Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the decline in gold prices is influenced by factors such as the easing of U.S. government shutdown fears, uncertainties in global trade tariffs, and profit-taking from previous safe-haven buying [4][6]. - The market is sensitive to central bank actions, with reports indicating that the former governor of the Philippines' central bank suggested selling some gold reserves due to reduced risk appetite, which negatively impacted gold prices [4][6]. Long-term Outlook - Despite the recent downturn, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations of prices rising above $4,500 per ounce in the coming year, driven by ongoing U.S. fiscal risks and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [6][7]. - Central banks, including South Korea's, are considering increasing gold purchases, indicating sustained demand for gold as a reserve asset [6][7]. Investment Sentiment - Market sentiment indicates a desire for deeper corrections in gold prices, with some analysts suggesting that a price of $3,500 per ounce could be considered healthy for the market [5][6]. - Major financial institutions, such as JPMorgan, maintain a bullish long-term outlook for gold, projecting prices could reach $6,000 per ounce by 2028 due to structural demand from central banks and investors [7].

Core Insights - The recent volatility in international gold prices has led to a significant drop, with prices falling nearly 90 yuan per gram in less than half a month, prompting investors to sell their gold bars [1] - As of October 28, the spot gold price fell below $3900 per ounce, marking a weekly decline of over 3% and the first weekly loss since August 22 [1] - The gold recovery market has seen increased activity, with a nearly 15% month-on-month growth in recovery volume, indicating cautious consumer behavior despite the drop in gold prices [4] Price Trends - On October 28, the gold price for jewelry in the Shenzhen market was around 922 yuan per gram, down from nearly 1010 yuan on October 17 and less than 800 yuan in early September [1][4] - Major brands have begun to raise prices for gold jewelry, with some products seeing price increases of over 20%, despite the recent drop in gold prices [4] Market Outlook - Most market institutions predict that gold prices will likely remain high and volatile in the short term, advising investors to approach the current market with caution [5] - Long-term trends suggest that the upward trajectory of gold prices remains intact, supported by factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and high sovereign debt levels [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - On October 28, the Shanghai gold futures contract reported a price of 901.68 CNY per gram, reflecting a decline of 4.16% from the opening price of 926.92 CNY per gram, with a high of 928.56 CNY and a low of 901.10 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - The Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that China and the U.S. have agreed to further clarify specific details regarding trade negotiations, with a potential meeting between the two countries' leaders in South Korea [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Ukraine and its allies have agreed to formulate a ceasefire plan within the next seven to ten days, while seeking advanced missile systems from the U.S. to pressure Russia into negotiations [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October stands at 97.3%, with a 95.3% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [1] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives on Gold and Silver - The long-term logic for gold's financial and monetary attributes remains clear, with a potential recovery in market risk appetite due to the easing of U.S.-China tensions. Short-term gold prices are in a corrective phase, with a focus on confirming a new bottom after volatility returns to normal levels [1] - For silver, the long-term logic regarding its commodity, financial, and monetary attributes is also clear. Silver is following gold into a corrective phase, with recommendations to hold existing long positions and consider new positions if prices fall below 11,000 CNY [2]

各国央行大规模购金的行动，推动国际金价在今年屡创新高。不过，随着本月金价在突破4000美元大关 后出现快速的冲高回落，至少有一位亚洲央行官员已表示，其国家或许应考虑抛售黄金。 据悉，菲律宾央行货币委员会成员、前央行行长Benjamin Diokno周一表示，"我们目前的黄金持有量已 经过高。" 目前，在菲律宾央行1090亿美元的国际储备总额中，黄金占比约为13%，高于亚洲多数国家的央行。 Diokno认为，理想的黄金储备比例应维持在8%-12%区间。 值得一提的是，菲律宾央行是在金价处于约2000美元/盎司时，开始持续增持黄金储备的。截至目前， 金价已实现了翻倍，上周曾短暂突破4380美元，随后因地缘政治紧张局势缓解及投资者获利了结而回落 至4000美元下方。 "难道不该卖出吗？"Diokno在接受采访时问道，"若金价下跌了怎么办？" 显然，Diokno的言论凸显了各国央行内部，关于是否应继续增持黄金或开始获利了结的争论。 现任菲律宾央行行长Eli Remolona今年早些时候曾表示，央行不会对黄金价格进行投机。他还指出，黄 金是"非常糟糕的投资"——尽管在多元化投资组合中仍具对冲价值。 4000美元的黄金令 ...