Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.08% as of 10:29 AM, with a trading volume of 633.80 million shares and a turnover of 1003.09 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 14.11% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The electronics sector led the gains with a rise of 3.16%, followed by the computer sector at 1.23% and the automotive sector at 0.52% [1] - The largest declines were seen in the social services sector (-1.65%), beauty care sector (-1.30%), and construction materials sector (-1.29%) [2] Key Stocks - Notable gainers included Hongfu Huan with a rise of 20.01% in the electronics sector, and Chuling Information with a gain of 19.99% in the computer sector [1] - Significant decliners included Suining Global in the real estate sector, which fell by 9.93%, and ST New Power in the environmental protection sector, which dropped by 14.93% [1][2] Trading Volume by Industry - The electronics industry had a trading volume of 228.43 billion yuan, while the computer industry saw 78.07 billion yuan, and the automotive industry recorded 64.99 billion yuan [1] - The social services sector had a trading volume of 12.18 billion yuan, and the beauty care sector recorded 1.63 billion yuan [2]

证券研究报告 2025 年 9 月 19 日 星期五 【A 股市场大势研判】 指数放量调整 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3831.66 | -1.15% | -44.68 | | | 深证成指 | 13075.66 | -1.06% | -139.80 | | | 沪深 300 | 4498.11 | -1.16% | -52.91 | | | 创业板 | 3095.85 | -1.64% | -51.49 | | | 科创 50 | 1380.35 | 0.72% | 9.92 | | | 北证 50 | 1591.17 | -1.01% | -16.27 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 申万行业表现前五 申万行业表现后五 概念板块表现前五 ◼ 概念板块表现后五 电子 0.93% 有色金属 -3.56% F5G 概念 1.45% 金属铅 -3.94% 通信 0.19% 综合 -2.85% 共封装光学 （CPO） 1.35% 金属锌 -3.88% 社会 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shenzhen Component Index dropping over 2% and the ChiNext Index falling by 3% [2] - A total of 4,757 stocks in the market saw a decrease, indicating a broad market downturn [2] Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,805.03, down by 71.31 points or 1.84% [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index ended at 12,927.10, down by 288.36 points or 2.18% [3] - The ChiNext Index recorded a decline of 3.00%, closing at 3,053.06 [3] Trading Volume and Market Capitalization - The trading volume reached 294 million hands, with a turnover rate of 5.51% [4] - The total trading value was 774.655 billion, with a volume ratio of 1.28 [4] - The overall market capitalization stood at 17.11 trillion [4] Sector Performance - Various sectors experienced declines, with non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, media, and beauty care sectors collectively falling [6] - Notable declines were observed in stocks related to stock trading software, PEEK materials, industrial metals, and gold jewelry [6] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong stock market also saw a sharp decline, with all three major indices dropping over 2% [7] - The Hang Seng Technology Index had previously increased by 2% before the downturn [7]

中国经济网北京8月25日讯 A股三大指数今日早盘冲高回落。截至午间收盘，上证综指报3858.59点，涨 幅0.86%；深成指报12361.36点，涨幅1.61%；创业板指报2741.98点，涨幅2.22%。 A股市场板块涨跌幅排行 | 序号 | 板块 | 涨跌幅(%)▼ | 总成交量 (万手) ▼ | 总成交额(亿元) ▼ | 净流入(亿元) ▼ | 上涨家数 | 卜跌家数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 原田 | 3.65 | 287.23 | 204.88 | 27.72 | 19 | 1 | | 2 | 金属新材料 | 3.35 | 911.67 | 206.76 | 12.00 | ટર | 6 | | 3 | 需要遇 | 3.26 | 608.60 | 88.59 | 8.31 | 11 | 0 | | র্ব | 通信设备 | 2.76 | 2545.33 | 964.74 | 9.40 | 57 | 28 | | 5 | 小我屋 | 2.71 | 1452.98 | 439.32 | 5.22 | 24 | 2 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market saw a majority of indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.46% to close at 3666.44 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index dropping by 0.87% to 11451.43 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 1.08% to 2469.66 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index rose by 0.75% to 1085.74 points [1] - Overall, there were 4644 stocks that declined, while only 734 stocks increased, and 41 stocks remained flat. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 22792 billion yuan, an increase of 1282.72 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, only the financial sector saw an increase, while all other sectors experienced declines. The sectors that led the decline included comprehensive, defense and military, communication, steel, textile and apparel, and beauty and personal care [1] - The top-performing concept sectors today included insurance selection, digital currency, GPU, cross-border payment, servers, financial technology, and others [1]

Group 1 - As of July 15, the latest market financing balance reached 1,877.263 billion yuan, an increase of 4.94 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Among the 25 primary industries under Shenwan, the electronic industry saw the largest increase in financing balance, rising by 1.828 billion yuan [1] - Other industries with notable increases include computer, public utilities, and transportation, with financing balances increasing by 0.791 billion yuan, 0.404 billion yuan, and 0.402 billion yuan respectively [1] Group 2 - The industry with the highest financing balance increase percentage was the comprehensive sector, with a latest balance of 3.379 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.70% [1] - The beauty care, transportation, and construction materials industries followed, with increases of 1.67%, 1.19%, and 0.97% respectively [1] - Industries experiencing a decrease in financing balance included steel, non-ferrous metals, and national defense, with reductions of 1.26%, 0.66%, and 0.19% respectively [2]

Market Performance Overview - The domestic equity market continued its upward trend, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.54% during the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025. Gold prices also saw a significant increase. The steel, building materials, and banking sectors experienced the highest gains, while the computer, non-bank financial, and beauty care sectors faced the largest declines [3]. - All types of fund indices achieved positive returns, with ordinary equity funds rising by 1.60% [3]. Fund Product Issuance - The domestic new fund market saw a decrease in activity, with 23 new funds established, totaling 5.328 billion units issued. This included 13 equity funds, 4 bond funds, 5 mixed funds, and 1 fund of funds (FOF). In total, 36 new funds were issued across the market, comprising 25 equity funds, 6 bond funds, and 5 mixed funds [4]. Fund Product Performance Tracking - The long-term thematic fund indices continued to rise, with the pharmaceutical theme fund showing the highest increase of 5.70%. Other themes such as finance and real estate, industry rotation, and balanced industry funds also performed well, while TMT and national defense industry funds lagged behind [5]. ETF Market Tracking - Stock ETFs experienced a net outflow of 20.817 billion yuan, primarily from large-cap broad-based ETFs, while Hong Kong stock ETFs saw a significant inflow of 7.821 billion yuan. The median return for stock ETFs was 1.35%, while the median return for Hong Kong stock ETFs was -0.75% [7]. - The median return for cross-border ETFs was 1.32%, with a net inflow of 0.375 billion yuan. Commodity ETFs had a median return of 1.12% and a net inflow of 2.24 billion yuan. The Sci-Tech Innovation Board theme ETF saw a net inflow of 0.84 billion yuan, while other broad-based ETFs experienced net outflows totaling 23.298 billion yuan [7]. Fund Positioning Monitoring - The estimated equity positioning of actively managed funds decreased by 0.44 percentage points compared to the previous week. Increased allocations were observed in the pharmaceutical, national defense, and electronics sectors, while reductions were noted in non-ferrous metals, household appliances, and electric equipment sectors [8]. ESG Financial Product Tracking - Twelve new green bonds were issued this week, with a total issuance scale of 33.461 billion yuan. The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 4.63 trillion yuan and a total of 3,954 bonds issued as of July 4, 2025 [9]. - In terms of fund performance, the median return for actively managed equity, passive equity index, and bond ESG funds was 1.22%, 1.89%, and 0.15%, respectively. Funds focused on low-carbon economy, carbon neutrality, and the Belt and Road Initiative showed significant performance advantages [9].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index futures is a fluctuating and moderately bullish pattern [1] Core Viewpoints - The market's center of gravity continued to rise last week, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. The core driver of last week's market was the China Central Finance and Economics Commission meeting on the 1st, which emphasized "anti - involution" through the construction of a unified market, leading to a sharp increase in market expectations for a new round of supply - side reform. The value style outperformed last week, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - Currently, the external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue [2] Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the market's center of gravity rose, with a late - stage rally followed by a decline. In terms of sectors, steel, building materials, and banks led the gains, while computer, non - bank finance, and beauty care led the losses. The value style outperformed, with IH and IF stronger than IC and IM, mainly due to the rise of cyclical products. Overseas, the US "Great Beauty Act" was passed, non - farm payroll data was better than expected, and tariff negotiations were underway, causing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to reach new highs [1] - **Future Outlook**: The current external geopolitical situation is calm, global risk assets are performing strongly, and the domestic economic outlook has shifted from pessimistic to stable, with structural reforms starting to take effect. The risk appetite in the stock market continues to recover, which is an important basis for the current long - position pattern of stock index futures. However, there is a lack of momentum for marginally positive surprises. As long as there are no unexpected changes in external forces and no intensification of domestic structural adjustments, the current pattern of fluctuating upward is expected to continue. This week, attention should be paid to the release of June economic data in China [2] - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economy and overseas tariff negotiation progress [3] Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips. The core operating range for the IF2507 main contract is between 3826 and 4024 points; for the IH2507 main contract, between 2649 and 2772 points; for the IC2507 main contract, between 5646 and 6025 points; and for the IM2507 main contract, between 5970 and 6372 points [4] - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Due to the frequent switching between value and growth styles recently, it is advisable to wait and see [5] Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.3%, the S&P 500 rose 1.72%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.62%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.27%, Germany's DAX fell 1.02%, and France's CAC 40 rose 0.06%. In the Asia - Pacific market, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.85%, and the Hang Seng Index fell 1.52% [8] - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have risen. Last week, all major domestic indices also showed an upward trend [8] Index Valuation Tracking - As of June 27, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.93 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index was 13.02 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the SSE 50 Index was 11.18 times, the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 500 Index was 27.66 times, and the TTM price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 1000 Index was 36.02 times [19][20] Market Capital Flow Review - **Investor and Fund Data**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in relevant charts. Last week, the capital interest rate declined, and the central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The contraction of the US Q1 GDP for the first time in three years has further strengthened market expectations of at least two Fed rate cuts this year, leading to a full - scale rise in the three major US stock indexes [2]. - China will issue the third batch of trade - in funds in July, which is expected to inject new impetus into domestic demand recovery in the second half of the year [2]. - After three consecutive days of strong rallies, A - shares' sentiment indicators are overheated, and the stock index is adjusting. It is expected that the index still has upward momentum after consolidation, with a rising price center, and the sector market will continue to diverge [2]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The US economy is showing a decline. The US Q1 real GDP final annualized quarter - on - quarter decline was 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.2%, the first contraction in three years. The preliminary value of durable goods orders in May increased by 16.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since July 2014, far exceeding the expected 8.5%. Domestically, China will issue the third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds in July [1]. - **Spot Market**: A - share's three major indexes fluctuated downward. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.22% to close at 3448.45 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.66%. Most sector indexes declined. Bank, communication, and national defense and military industries led the gains, while automobile, non - bank finance, pharmaceutical biology, and beauty care industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained at 1.6 trillion yuan. Overseas, the latest economic data significantly boosted market expectations of at least two Fed rate cuts this year, and the three major US stock indexes rose collectively [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the futures market, the IM basis continued to repair slightly. The trading volume and open interest of IF, IC, and IM decreased [1]. Strategy - The contraction of the US Q1 GDP has further strengthened market expectations of at least two Fed rate cuts this year, leading to a rise in the three major US stock indexes. China's issuance of the third batch of trade - in funds in July is expected to boost domestic demand in the second half of the year. After three consecutive days of rallies, A - shares are adjusting due to overheated sentiment, but are expected to rise after consolidation, with a rising price center and continued sector divergence [2]. Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [4][6][7]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: On June 26, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3448.45, down 0.22%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10343.48, down 0.48%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2114.43, down 0.66%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 3946.02, down 0.35%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2738.47, up 1.17%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 5838.25, down 0.41%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 6247.79, down 0.45% [12]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures decreased. For example, the trading volume of IF decreased by 38,640 to 84,890, and the open interest decreased by 10,070 to 243,932 [14]. - **Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures showed different changes. For example, the basis of IM continued to repair slightly, with the current - month contract basis rising by 1.17 to - 35.99 [33]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures also changed. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IM increased by 4.80 to - 55.20 [45].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.21% as of the morning close, with a trading volume of 796.29 million shares and a transaction amount of 10,137.47 billion yuan, an increase of 1.20% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Non-ferrous metals: increased by 2.60% with a transaction amount of 514.87 billion yuan, led by Electric Alloy, which rose by 19.98% [1] - Beauty care: increased by 1.82% with a transaction amount of 36.86 billion yuan, led by Jinbo Biological, which rose by 12.27% [1] - Electronics: increased by 1.73% with a transaction amount of 1,309.31 billion yuan, led by Chuangyitong, which rose by 20.01% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Banking: decreased by 2.13% with a transaction amount of 325.49 billion yuan, led by Chongqing Bank, which fell by 3.56% [2] - Public utilities: decreased by 1.02% with a transaction amount of 149.91 billion yuan, led by Shouhua Gas, which fell by 4.62% [2] - Retail: decreased by 0.78% with a transaction amount of 166.34 billion yuan, led by Small Commodity City, which fell by 9.39% [2] Summary of Sector Changes - Non-ferrous metals, beauty care, and electronics showed significant gains, while banking, public utilities, and retail sectors experienced notable declines [1][2]