Group 1 - The importance of gold has been highlighted due to increasing geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation uncertainty, and adjustments in central bank strategies, making it a key strategic choice for asset diversification [1] - The world is gradually dividing into competing economic entities, and gold is re-establishing its position as a preferred neutral asset, trusted across nations and unaffected by sovereign risks [1] - Historical demand drivers for gold include its lack of credit risk, high liquidity, and physical characteristics, making it a reliable asset during market pressures [2] Group 2 - Gold's supply is relatively inelastic, with new production taking 7 to 20 years to develop, which enhances its scarcity premium during periods of rising demand [2] - Empirical data shows that gold often appreciates or at least maintains its value during macroeconomic shocks, serving as an effective hedge against tail risks and systemic events [2] - As of mid-2023, expectations of a pause in central bank interest rate hikes have led to a noticeable increase in gold prices, driven by high inflation and central bank reserve accumulation [2] Group 3 - Gold prices tend to exhibit strong upward trends during financial shocks, often maintaining high levels even after market conditions stabilize [5] - Historical data indicates significant cumulative returns for gold during inflationary periods, with peak returns reaching as high as 302% during the 1972-1976 inflation surge [6][7] - The current cycle (2020-2025) has seen gold prices rise approximately 90% from baseline levels, reinforcing its role as a tactical hedge asset [7] Group 4 - Economic policy uncertainty has a clear relationship with gold prices, as rising uncertainty typically leads to increased gold prices, reflecting its role as a safe-haven asset [8] - Retail demand for gold is significantly influenced by cultural factors, particularly in India and China, which together account for over 60% of global jewelry demand [13] - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases since late 2021, driven by concerns over asset seizure and geopolitical conflicts, indicating a shift in reserve management strategies [14][15] Group 5 - The increase in gold reserves among central banks reflects a broader strategy to diversify reserves and enhance balance sheet resilience in a fragmented geopolitical landscape [18] - Gold's share in central bank balance sheets has risen from approximately 9% at the end of 2020 to 13.5% by 2024, indicating its growing importance as a reserve asset [18] - Notably, China and India have significantly increased their gold reserves by 17% and 38% respectively, while European central banks have maintained stable reserves [21][23] Group 6 - The technology sector is also driving gold demand, with a 7% increase in gold usage in North America and Asia due to growth in AI and semiconductor manufacturing [25] - Gold's strategic value as an industrial raw material is being recognized, particularly in the context of automation and AI investments in aging economies [25] - Traditional investment flows and central bank accumulation highlight gold's strategic appeal during systemic pressure periods, especially amid rising tariffs and conflicts [26] Group 7 - Gold maintains low correlation with other major asset classes, providing significant diversification benefits in multi-asset portfolios, particularly during periods of simultaneous downturns in traditional assets [29][30] - The 60/20/20 portfolio strategy, which includes 20% allocation to gold, has outperformed the traditional 60/40 portfolio, especially during market downturns [36][39] - Gold's role as a dynamic strategic tool in multi-asset investment environments is increasingly recognized, enhancing risk-adjusted returns amid macroeconomic uncertainty [40][42]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan, along with optimistic trade talks between the U.S. and the EU, has led to a decline in gold prices as market concerns over trade tensions ease [3]. Group 1: Trade Agreements - U.S. President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, reducing auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15% and securing $550 billion in U.S. investments from Japan [3]. - The EU and U.S. are nearing a similar agreement, potentially setting the baseline tariff for EU goods to the U.S. at 15%, avoiding a rise to 30% [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The trade optimism has resulted in a rally in Asian stock markets, with Japan's stock market rising nearly 4%, reaching a new high in over a year [3]. - U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reached closing highs, while the Dow Jones increased by over 1% [3]. Group 3: Impact on Gold Prices - The easing of trade conflict concerns has led to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets, putting downward pressure on gold prices [3]. - Current trading strategies for precious metals suggest maintaining a bullish outlook, with the main contract for gold in Shanghai expected to trade between 760-809 yuan per gram [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-24 经贸前瞻改善，⾦价承压 中美开启新⼀轮经贸会谈，美⽇达成贸易协定，全球经贸前瞻改善，⾦价 承压。 重点资讯： 1）中美关税临时"休战"协议临近最后期限，双方即将展 开新一轮磋商。中国商务部周三公布，经中美双方商定， 国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行 经贸会谈。 2）美国总统特朗普与日本达成贸易协议，降低了日本汽车 进口关税，并免于对其他日本商品征收惩罚性新关税，作为 交换，日本承诺向美国提供5500亿美元的投资和贷款。 价格逻辑： 周三晚间，金价自3437美元/盎司回落，运行在月内高点下 方，因美国与日本达成贸易协议的乐观情绪削弱了市场对避 险资产的需求。特朗普宣布美日达成重大贸易协议，涵盖汽 车、大米等多个领域，并施加15%的对等关税，带动市场风 险偏好回暖，对金价构成压力。此外，中国商务部周三公 布，经中美双方商定，国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至3 0日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。 与此同时，美元自两周低点小幅反弹，也促使部分资金流出 黄金市场。尽管如此，金价的下行仍受到限制：美元指 ...

Core Viewpoint - Platinum has experienced a significant price surge, with a monthly increase of over 28% in June and a year-to-date increase of approximately 60%, outperforming silver and gold [1][5]. Supply Factors - The price increase of platinum is attributed to multiple structural factors, particularly a reduction in supply due to mining cutbacks. South Africa, the largest platinum producer, has seen a substantial decrease in production due to adverse weather conditions [5]. - According to the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC), the total global supply of platinum in the first quarter of 2025 is projected to be 45.3 tons, a 10% year-on-year decline, with mined supply down 13% to 33.7 tons [5]. Demand Factors - Industrial demand for platinum is on the rise, driven by the hydrogen energy sector and automotive production. Additionally, both consumer and investment demand for platinum have increased significantly [5]. - The WPIC reports a 9% year-on-year increase in demand for platinum in the jewelry sector in the first quarter of 2025, alongside a substantial rise in investment demand [5]. Market Dynamics - The significant price increase of platinum is influenced by supply-demand imbalances, a flight to safety by investors, and its potential as an alternative to gold. The current geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations have led investors to allocate funds to precious metals [7]. - Despite its financial attributes, platinum is unlikely to fully replace gold as a safe-haven asset due to differences in recognition, market size, and liquidity [7]. Future Outlook - If the global supply of platinum continues to be constrained and demand from sectors like hydrogen energy grows, there may be further price increases. However, uncertainties regarding the hydrogen sector and structural changes in the automotive industry could introduce demand volatility [7].

Group 1 - Financial markets experienced significant volatility on July 16, 2025, with the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 5.01%, indicating a market bet on "long-term high interest rates" [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange saw a sharp decline in the probability of interest rate cuts, dropping from 65% to 58%, and the likelihood of two cuts within the year plummeted from 93% to 76% [3] - Gold prices struggled below $3,335, with significant trading activity indicating heightened market risk aversion [3] Group 2 - The technology sector, particularly Nvidia, thrived amid market turmoil, with Nvidia's stock surging 4% after the announcement of AI chip exports to China, pushing its market capitalization above $4.1 trillion [4] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments about the selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair added to market uncertainty, causing the 30-year Treasury yield to exceed 5% [4][6] - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve were highlighted, with 19 decision-makers split into three camps regarding interest rate policy, indicating a lack of consensus on future actions [6] Group 3 - Trump's inquiry about potentially firing Fed Chair Powell led to a market collapse, with gold prices rising by $20 and the dollar index falling by 25 points, reflecting heightened market anxiety [8] - Inflation data released showed a 2.7% year-over-year increase in June CPI, with core CPI rising 2.9%, indicating the impact of tariffs on consumer prices [9] - The market is bracing for further inflationary pressures, with predictions of core PCE inflation reaching 3.2% in the fourth quarter, raising concerns about the economic outlook [9]

上交易日周二(7月22日)：国际黄金再度强势反弹收阳，并有所突破3500美元而下的回落趋势线压力，多头动力继续增强，影响上，随着贸易紧张局势以 及白宫与美联储的冲突持续，鲍威尔假辞职信刷屏，特朗普政府再度施压美联储降息，美元指数延续跌势，推动金价继续走强。 张尧浠：贸易谈判紧迫降息风暴暗涌、金价有望冲击3570 短期将有望触及进一步3450美元阻力，如突破将再度上探3500美元关口再创新高至3570美元。反之将继续震荡调整。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3397.16美元/盎司，先行偏弱走低，于欧盘初录得日内低点3383.24美元，就此也是多单进场，之后在欧盘尾，多头力量开始 加强，并展开连续反弹，美盘延续动力继续走强，于盘尾时段录得日内高点3433.06美元，最后陷入持续的窄幅盘整，最终收于3431.26美元，日振幅49.82 美元，收涨34.1美元，涨幅1%。 白银则再创近14年新高！触及39.30美元/盎司上方。 展望今日周三(7月23日)：国际黄金开盘多头动力减弱，受到获利了结以及技术短线调整的正常波动，并且布林带开口向上，下方众多均线转为支撑，故 此，如回撤走低，关注布林带上轨或者是5日均线支撑，也是 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices have reached $3,450 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.2% [1] - There is a notable surge in the market for gold and silver, suggesting a growing interest in these safe-haven assets [2]

最近贵金属市场的表现真是让人眼前一亮。作为一个在量化投资领域摸爬滚打多年的上海人，我注意到昨夜黄金期货价格突然拉升1.55%，报3410.3美元/盎 司。这让我想起十年前刚开始接触量化投资时，也曾被这样的行情搞得晕头转向。 一、市场表象下的深层逻辑 表面上看，这次贵金属上涨与地缘政治风险有关。伊朗核问题再度升温，加上美联储降息预期，确实为避险资产提供了支撑。但作为一个数据控，我更关注 的是这些事件背后机构资金的实际动向。 记得刚入行时，我也和大多数散户一样，总是被各种消息牵着鼻子走。直到后来接触到量化分析工具，才发现市场真相往往藏在数据里。就拿这次黄金行情 来说，关键不在于涨了多少，而在于谁在买、为什么买。 二、从数据看透机构意图 这些年我最大的感悟就是：市场涨跌不是关键，背后的机构行为才是关键。可惜大多数散户看不到这一点。通过长期积累的交易行为数据，我们可以清晰地 看到不同的资金特征。 比如下面这只股票的表现就很有意思： 图中橙色柱体反映的是机构资金活跃程度的数据。可以看到，即便在股价调整时（图中①、②、③、④位置），机构资金依然保持活跃。这说明什么？说明 大资金根本没打算离场。 三、警惕虚假繁荣 相比之下 ...

基本面： -----------当日金银报价------------------ 现货黄金报3398附近美元/盎司； 现货白银报38.85美元/盎司； -----------日内金融市场热点----------------- 20:30 美国 --- 美联储主席鲍威尔在一场监管会议上致欢迎辞。 美元指数：图表显示目前美指为震荡反弹行情。关注压力100.00位置。 周二（7月22日）银价早盘压力位震荡，白银突破区间创近期高点，市场回落后多单布局方案。基本面最新消息数据显示，世界主要黄金消费国上个月进口 了63公吨黄金，为1月份以来最低。现货白银上涨2.1%，报每盎司38.99美元；铂金上涨1.4%，报1440.75美元；钯金上涨2.1%，报1266.04美元。7月21日，国 际评级机构惠誉称，政策风险给美国信用前景蒙上阴影。惠誉在年中更新中，将美国2025年25%行业的前景展望下调至"恶化"，原因是不确定性增加、经济 增长放缓以及预期利率将长期维持在高位。 惠誉表示，近期通过的税收和支出法案凸显了美国财政前景面临的长期挑战，并将给医疗保健相关行业带来压 力。税收法案和先前减税措施的延长相结合，很可能使美政府总赤 ...

周二（7月22日）亚市盘中，黄金期货延续上行态势，最新沪金主力交投于784.92元/克，涨幅0.65%， 投资者们正密切关注欧美贸易谈判的进展、欧盟可能采取的激烈反制措施，以及美联储货币政策的潜在 变化。在这样的背景下，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力正在迅速升温。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 欧盟外交官指出，随着对达成协议的疑虑上升，欧盟正在研究一系列可能针对美国的反制措施。与此同 时，日本的政治不稳定给8月1日截止日前美日达成贸易协议蒙上阴影。 此外，由于特朗普多次呼吁美联储主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔辞职，引发对美联储独立性的持续担忧，美国国 债收益率下跌，也让美元承压。 华尔街指数的创纪录上涨还削弱了美元的避险和收益率的吸引力，助力黄金价格延续上周五的涨势。 【技术分析】 近期黄金期货在760-785元/克区间震荡，现靠近上方阻力位，关注能否有效突破，若破可追多，否则谨 防回调，今日金价上方阻力关注790-800，下方支撑看770-780。 【要闻速递】 本周一，美国与日本及欧盟（EU）贸易协议的不确定性加剧，重燃了对美国经济增长的担忧，这对美 元构成了沉重压力。 《华尔街日报》周一援引消息人士报道称："美国官员 ...