贝森特说："我没有告诉美联储该怎么做。"他指的是前一天关于美联储"可以开始一系列降息"的言论。 美国财长贝森特日内表示，他并不是要求美联储进行一系列减息，只是指出，模型显示，"中性"利率将 比现在低150个基点左右。 贝森特表示："我所说的是，要达到中性利率，大约需要降息150个基点。如果相信中性利率的存在，我 认为有空间进行一系列降息，但我不是在呼吁降息，我也没有这么呼吁，我只是说模型测算的中性利率 比当前水平低约150个基点。"（新华财经） ...

贝森特说："我没有告诉美联储该怎么做。"他指的是前一天关于美联储"可以开始一系列降息"的言论。 贝森特表示："我所说的是，要达到中性利率，大约需要降息150个基点。如果相信中性利率的存在，我 认为有空间进行一系列降息，但我不是在呼吁降息，我也没有这么呼吁，我只是说模型测算的中性利率 比当前水平低约150个基点。" （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月14日电美国财长贝森特日内表示，他并不是要求美联储进行一系列减息，只是指出， 模型显示，"中性"利率将比现在低150个基点左右。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, indicated that there is room for a series of interest rate cuts, starting potentially with a 25 basis point reduction, while emphasizing the importance of maintaining a belief in the neutral interest rate being at a lower level [1] Group 1 - The Treasury Secretary did not call for the Federal Reserve to lower rates to 1.5%, suggesting a more gradual approach to rate cuts [1] - There is a focus on reducing the spread between mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasury bonds as a key objective [1] - Becerra clarified that there is no call for consecutive rate cuts, but rather a suggestion that models indicate the neutral rate could be lower [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a nearly certain interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by recent economic data and comments from officials, which could impact silver prices and trading strategies [3][4]. Group 1: Market Data - As of August 14, the silver spot price is trading at $38.34 per ounce, with a daily high of $38.73 and a low of $38.20 [1]. - Other silver-related prices include silver T+D at 9,270 yuan per kilogram, paper silver at 8.837 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures at 9,286 yuan per kilogram [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The market's expectation for a 99.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is based on the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which indicates a slowdown in inflation [3]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent suggests a more aggressive rate cut of 50 basis points may be necessary due to weak employment data, advocating for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points to reach a neutral rate around 3% [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is expected to provide guidance on potential rate cuts during the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, with market participants looking for clarity on the September meeting [4]. - The discussion around Powell's leadership and potential successors adds a political dimension to the Fed's future decisions, influencing market sentiment [4]. Group 4: Silver Trading Strategy - Technical analysis indicates that a pullback in silver prices may be due to profit-taking after an overbought condition, with key resistance at $38.40 and support around $38.10 [5]. - A significant drop below $38 could lead silver prices towards $37.00, while a breakthrough above $38.75 could target $39.00 and potentially challenge the highest levels since February 2012 [5].

投资者们越来越预期欧元区将进入"长期高利率"(Higher for longer)状态，而预计在3月会出现的利率下 调只是暂时现象，之后借款利率将再度攀升至2%以上。 例如，包括高盛在内的一些投资银行已经调整了他们的预测，现在预计欧洲央行已经结束了当前的宽松 货币政策周期。 尽管贸易风险仍可能对经济增长和通胀造成影响，但这些银行认为，欧洲央行在最近的会议后对欧元区 经济给出了乐观的评估，因此在可预见的未来，该央行很可能会将利率维持在2%的水平。 多项基于市场的利率预期指标显示，在美国与欧盟近期达成贸易协议之后，投资者对于关税带来的通缩 影响的担忧正在逐渐减轻。交易员还认为，德国大幅增加财政支出将促进经济发展，从而在更长期内减 少进一步降息的必要性。 "Higher for longer"这一观点在2022年和2023年主导了市场走势，当时各大央行正努力应对由新冠疫情和 俄乌战争所引发的顽固通胀问题。 以下是一些能够反映利率前景的市场指标： 短期利率政策前景：欧元短期利率预计最终将达2% 针对欧洲央行官方隔夜基准利率(即欧元短期利率，简称ESTR)的远期合约显示，到明年3月，该利率下 调25个基点的可能性约为6 ...

汇通财经APP讯——随着全球经济风向标——美联储 的下一步动作备受关注，市场对9月降息的预期几乎板上钉钉。最新数据显示，美联储9 月降息已成市场共识，而财长贝森特更抛出"50基点暴击"的震撼预告。更耐人寻味的是，就在这个敏感时刻，美联储主席候选名单突然从3人 暴增至11人，背后究竟暗藏哪些玄机？ 市场预期：9月降息几乎无悬念 根据芝加哥商业交易所（CME）的FedWatch工具，在美国 劳工统计局发布7月消费者物价指数（CPI）数据后，市场对美联储9月降息的预期 达到了惊人的99.9%。这一数据反映了市场对美联储在9月16-17日会议上至少降息25个基点的强烈信心。7月CPI数据显示，美国通胀温和，物 价上涨速度已逐步放缓，这为美联储调整货币政策提供了空间。更引人注目的是，美国财长贝森特（Bessent）在接受彭博电视采访时明确表 示，鉴于近期就业数据的疲软，美联储可能需要更大幅度降息，甚至可能一次性下调50个基点。 贝森特进一步指出，当前联邦基金利率（4.25%-4.5%）的限制性过强，可能会对经济造成不必要的压力。他建议将利率下调150至175个基点， 使之接近所谓的中性利率水平（约3%），即既不刺激经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September, with expectations of a potential 50 basis point cut due to weak employment data and inflation concerns [3][4][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting has risen to nearly 100%, with a 75 basis point reduction expected throughout the year [4]. - Major financial institutions, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, have adjusted their forecasts to anticipate the first rate cut in September [4]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra suggests that the current monetary policy is overly restrictive and advocates for a reduction of 150 to 175 basis points, aligning with the Fed's neutral rate [5]. Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - The upcoming retail sales data is crucial for assessing the resilience of the U.S. economy, with expectations of a 0.5% month-on-month increase in July [5]. - Recent employment reports indicate a downward revision of over 250,000 jobs for May and June, raising concerns about the labor market [4]. - The Fed's decision-making may hinge on further employment and inflation data before the September meeting [8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Leadership Changes - The list of potential successors for Fed Chair Powell has expanded to 11 candidates, indicating a shift in the administration's approach to leadership at the Fed [7]. - Some Fed policymakers are leaning towards a more dovish stance, with discussions around the possibility of multiple rate cuts this year [7][8]. - Despite the shift towards easing, there are still cautious voices within the Fed, emphasizing the need to balance inflation targets with employment goals [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker believes that there is still a long way to go before reaching a neutral interest rate [1] Group 1 - Harker's comments suggest that the current interest rates are not yet at a level that can be considered neutral for the economy [1] - The statement indicates ongoing concerns about inflation and economic growth, implying that further adjustments to interest rates may be necessary [1] - The perspective reflects a cautious approach by the Federal Reserve in navigating monetary policy amidst changing economic conditions [1]

7月31日美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔召开新闻发布会，就当前美国经济状况、货币政 策调整及未来展望进行了详细阐述。 全球最大白银etf--iShares Silver Trust持仓报告显示，7月30日白银etf持有量为15149.90吨，较上一交易日减持24.02吨。周三（7月30 日）现货白银尾盘收于37.13美元/盎司，下跌2.76%，盘中白银价格最高上探至38.24美元/盎司，最低触及36.77美元/盎司。 【市场要闻速递】 在货币政策方面，鲍威尔表示，他们尚未就9月会议作出任何决定，无法在六周后依据6月份的预测（点阵图）来做决策。就目前 而言，关于中性利率存在多种不同看法。鲍威尔个人的判断是（当前政策）处于适度限制性区间，不过（各方）对此存在一系列 不同的预估。 面对当前的经济环境，鲍威尔表示，受到关税相关新闻的影响，近期一些衡量通胀预期的指标整体有所上升，无论是市场基础 的，还是调查所得的预期。但从更长期来看，大多数通胀预期指标仍然与美联储2%的目标相符。美联储将继续根据最新数据、经 济前景的变化以及各种风险的平衡来决定货币政策的适当立场。 鲍威尔指出，尽管 ...

鲍威尔还提到，在关于政策的讨论中，多数观点认为，当前通胀高于目标水平，就业处于目标水平，因 此政策应保持一定的限制性。事实上，通胀距离目标比就业更远，劳动力市场是目前拥有的最佳经济数 据，从辞职率、职位空缺数和失业率等指标来看，就业市场仍然稳固，许多就业指标与一年前的情况类 似。但市场仍存在下行风险，在下次会议之前，还有两份就业和通胀报告。 新华财经北京7月31日电（郭洲洋）美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议后，美联储主席杰罗姆· 鲍威尔召开新闻发布会，就当前美国经济状况、货币政策调整及未来展望进行了详细阐述。 鲍威尔指出，尽管当前充满不确定性，美国经济仍然处于稳健状态。失业率保持在较低水平，劳动力市 场已达到或接近最大就业状态。他认为，当前的货币政策立场让美联储有充足准备，在面对未来可能的 经济变化时能及时应对。 关于通胀，鲍威尔表示，通胀虽然较2022年高点回落，但仍略高于2%的目标。目前存在"追赶性通 胀"，这反映了过去的压力，且无法将关税对通胀的影响单独剥离出来，同时服务业通胀正在下降，商 品通胀正在上升。他特别指出，关税开始在消费者价格中体现，核心通胀中有0.3至0.4个百分点是由关 税因素导 ...