供给侧结构性改革

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短期政策将保持定力 把握结构性机遇
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-07-30 21:09
Economic Outlook - The overall economic situation in China is positive in the first half of 2025, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [1] - Consumer spending has significantly increased, driven by "trade-in" programs, contributing notably to retail sales growth [1][2] - The GDP growth rate in the first half of the year is higher compared to the same period last year, with a notable rebound in consumption and resilient exports [1] Policy Directions - The government will maintain a steady policy approach in the short term, focusing on precise measures without increasing deficits or issuing new bonds [2] - Key policy directions include optimizing budget allocations among provinces, increasing spending on employment and foreign trade stability, and supporting major economic provinces [2] - Monetary policy is expected to emphasize structural and innovative tools, with room for further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [2][3] Structural Investment Opportunities - The capital market presents structural investment opportunities, particularly in sectors like technology, consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1][3] - The real estate sector's changing expectations are driving a shift in wealth allocation among residents, with low bond yields prompting capital inflows into the stock market [3] - Historical examples from Japan indicate that even during economic downturns, strategic policies can lead to significant stock market rebounds [3] Thematic Investment Focus - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as a long-term investment direction, catalyzing a new wave of technological revolution [4] - Opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in electronics, computing, and communications, are highlighted due to global supply chain restructuring [4] - High dividend yield and low volatility assets are expected to remain attractive to investors [4]
薛鹤翔:以史为鉴看“反内卷”对债市的影响——反内卷系列报告之六
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-07-30 14:40
炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报,权威,专业,及时,全面,助您挖掘潜力主题机会! 7月份以来,各国债期货合约价格持续下跌,T2509合约下跌超过0.7%,10年期国债收益率从1.64%最高回升至1.73%上方,回升幅度超过9bp,创今年4月 份以来的新高,主要在反内卷政策驱动下,权益和商品同步走强,提升市场风险偏好,压制债市情绪,同时部分经济金融数据回升改善经济增长预期,美 联储降息时间推迟制约国内货币政策空间。 2015年11月中央财经领导小组会议首次提出供给侧结构性改革,并在当年中央经济工作会议确立"三去一降一补"五大任务,同时实施相互配合的五大政策 支柱。受供给侧结构性改革影响,煤焦钢矿等受影响较大相关期货品种,均于2015年11月见底回升,随后一年(2015年11月10日-2016年11月10日)涨幅 巨大,带动PPI同比降幅于2016年1月份加速收窄,至2016年9月份时转正,在2017年2月份创下本轮PPI同比的高点7.8%。CPI涨幅较为温和,从1.3%回升 至2.5%附近,总体保持在3%以内。但2015年11月至2016年底的债市行情并未明显受到供给侧结构性改革的影响,且在PPI降幅持续收窄甚至转正之 ...
清华大学国家金融研究院院长田轩:深化改革为经济高质量发展提供持久保障
Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-07-30 14:33
来源:上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯(记者 李雁争)7月30日召开的中共中央政治局会议指出,要坚定不移深化改革。 坚持以科技创新引领新质生产力发展,加快培育具有国际竞争力的新兴支柱产业,推动科技创新和产业 创新深度融合发展。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设,推动市场竞争秩序持续优化。依法依规治理企业无 序竞争。推进重点行业产能治理。规范地方招商引资行为。坚持"两个毫不动摇",激发各类经营主体活 力。 对此,清华大学国家金融研究院院长、清华大学五道口金融学院副院长田轩接受上海证券报记者采访表 示,这些部署涵盖科技创新、产业创新、市场秩序优化、重点行业治理等领域,将通过系统性改革夯实 高质量发展基础,为全面建设社会主义现代化国家注入强劲动力。 针对重点行业产能治理,他指出,这是供给侧结构性改革的延续与深化,旨在通过淘汰落后产能,引导 资源向高附加值、绿色低碳领域集中,推动产业结构向更高质量升级。而规范地方招商引资行为,将有 效遏制地方间的政策"内卷"和恶性竞争,从制度层面优化整体投资环境,促进区域协调发展。 田轩强调,会议重申"两个毫不动摇"意义重大,这一部署将切实保障各类经营主体在市场中的平等地 位,通过 ...
李迅雷专栏 | 从“资产荒”角度看“内卷”的深层原因
中泰证券资管· 2025-07-30 11:30
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the root causes of "involution" in the context of declining investment returns and risk appetite in the capital market, suggesting that addressing these issues is crucial for effective "anti-involution" measures [2]. Group 1: Investment Returns and Involution - The return on investment for large-scale manufacturing enterprises has been declining, with profit margins decreasing from 5.35% in 2021 to 4.25% in the first five months of 2024 [5][11]. - The revenue generated per 100 yuan of assets for these enterprises has also dropped from 107 yuan in 2022 to 85.2 yuan in the first five months of 2024 [5][11]. - The phenomenon of "involution" is characterized by intensified competition among enterprises, leading to price wars that result in increased volume but reduced profits [11][19]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The persistent "supply exceeds demand" situation is attributed to previous investment expansions, with manufacturing investment growth outpacing overall investment growth from 2021 to 2024 [21][27]. - The average accounts receivable period for large-scale manufacturing enterprises has lengthened from 54 days in 2022 to 71.7 days in the first five months of 2024, indicating increased financial pressure [16][30]. - The capacity utilization rate for these enterprises has decreased from 75.8% in 2022 to 74.2% in the first half of 2024, reflecting a growing surplus in production capacity [19][27]. Group 3: Government Policies and Economic Structure - Local governments are incentivized to boost manufacturing investment to meet GDP targets, often leading to distorted market resource allocation through aggressive investment policies [28][30]. - Recent policies have increased financial support for manufacturing, with long-term loans to the sector growing significantly, providing substantial funding for investment expansions [30][32]. - The article highlights the need for a balanced approach to address both supply-side issues and consumer demand, suggesting that effective "anti-involution" strategies should focus on increasing household income and promoting consumption [72].
周期对比视角看钢铁行业“反内卷”路径
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 04:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for rebar and hot-rolled coil is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current steel downturn cycle has similarities and differences with the previous one. The current cycle is more driven by demand decline, with a larger demand drop but a less severe overcapacity issue. The price center is still higher due to increased demand and emerging market demand [2][27][46] - The main policy focus of the previous supply - side reform included capacity reduction, supply control, new capacity control, environmental protection improvement, and price control. However, there were some implementation issues [49][51][56] - Potential supply - side policies for the current "anti - involution" in the steel industry may include promoting ultra - low emission transformation and incorporating the industry into the carbon emission trading market. These are long - term tasks, and short - term over - trading is not recommended. Market turnaround depends on demand recovery [4][78][79] Summary by Directory 1. Comparison of the Current and Previous Steel Downturn Cycles - **Price decline and structure**: The decline time of the current cycle is similar to the previous one. The average price decline of finished products is slightly higher, while the decline of iron ore and coking coal is relatively smaller. The price center is higher than the previous low. The current cycle compresses steel mill profits earlier, and the profit recovers in 2024 - 25 [15][19] - **Demand and overcapacity**: The current cycle is triggered by the decline in real estate demand. The domestic demand for crude steel has been in negative growth since 2021. Although the demand decline is larger, the total demand is on a higher level, and the overcapacity is less severe than the previous cycle [20][27] - **Demand structure**: In the current cycle, the proportion of manufacturing and export demand has increased, playing a role in hedging demand decline. The external demand for manufacturing is strong, supported by overseas demand and emerging market growth. The overseas steel demand also shows a structural increase in emerging markets [28][31][33] 2. Review of the Previous Supply - Side Structural Reform Policies and Market Changes - **Policy background and path**: The previous supply - side reform aimed to solve problems such as overcapacity, high leverage, and real estate inventory. The main policies included capacity reduction (1 - 1.5 billion tons of steel and 5 billion tons of coal), supply control, new capacity control, environmental protection improvement, and price control [47][49][51] - **Market performance**: The steel price performance during the previous reform can be divided into four stages: policy - expectation - driven rise and fall (2015.12 - 2016.4), supply - reduction - driven rise (2016.5 - 2016.12), capacity - reduction - driven profit expansion (2017), and supply - elasticity - increase and narrowing profit (2018 - 2019) [57][61][71] 3. Potential Policy Directions for the Current "Anti - Involution" in the Steel Industry - The current market environment is similar to the previous one, with profit compression and a certain degree of market - based clearance. The priority of promoting supply - side reform this year is not high, but "anti - involution" may be related to anti - deflation [72] - Potential capacity - reduction directions include eliminating blast furnaces below 1000 cubic meters and promoting ultra - low emission transformation in 2026. Supply - control may be achieved by incorporating the industry into the carbon emission trading market, which is a long - term task. Market turnaround depends on demand recovery [73][78][79]
债市短期仍处于“逆风”环境
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-29 19:17
Group 1 - The recent "anti-involution" sentiment is intensifying, with policy expectations rising, leading to improved market risk appetite and a positive impact on the Shanghai Composite Index, which has surpassed 3600 points [1] - Industrial product inflation expectations are being driven by both supply-side "anti-involution" and demand-side investments, indicating a correction in the fundamental outlook [1] - The issuance of long-term special government bonds faced a cold reception, and unexpected tightening of liquidity has reinforced a challenging environment for the bond market [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" initiative is gaining clarity with various legal, regulatory, and industrial measures being implemented, including the draft amendment to the Price Law, which aims to address low-price dumping [2] - The significance of "anti-involution" lies in breaking the negative feedback loop caused by persistently weak prices, which affects supply-demand balance and optimization [2] - Current economic challenges include weak demand and prices, leading to increased deflationary pressures and insufficient leverage for residents and enterprises, creating a negative feedback mechanism [2] Group 3 - The success of "anti-involution" relies heavily on demand-side recovery, with fiscal measures expected to shift from funding allocation to tangible project execution [3] - Compared to previous supply-side reforms, the current "anti-involution" approach is more market-oriented, with a focus on stabilizing demand while considering employment factors [3] - The policy direction emphasizes deepening reforms and high-quality development without resorting to excessive demand-side stimulus or redundant supply-side investments [3] Group 4 - Historical adjustments in the bond market due to supply-side structural reforms suggest that while industrial prices may rise, the demand side is crucial for determining long-term interest rate trends [4] - The relationship between interest rates and core CPI is significant, as core CPI reflects true demand strength, and the transmission of rising industrial prices to broader CPI is critical [4] - Current demand-side dynamics do not exhibit the same strength as previous housing reforms, leading to potential demand drag in the early stages of "anti-involution" [4] Group 5 - Recent risk warnings from exchanges and the implementation of position limits have cooled the commodity futures market, with significant corrections in previously high-performing products [5] - The bond market may see short-term rebound opportunities due to central bank liquidity support, despite the amplified adjustment pressures from bond fund redemptions [5] - Investors should remain cautious of potential redemption waves and monitor central bank actions to stabilize liquidity expectations, especially with upcoming trade negotiations [5]
社科院金融所:缓解物价低迷可从五方面入手,发展服务消费意义重大
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-29 03:45
Core Viewpoint - The report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences indicates that while the Chinese economy is stabilizing, persistent low prices are dragging down nominal economic growth, widening the gap between macro and micro economic conditions [1] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown a year-on-year growth rate around 0% for 27 consecutive months, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) has seen a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, marking 33 months of negative growth [1] - The GDP deflator has recorded negative year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters, surpassing the seven quarters of negative growth during the 1998 Asian financial crisis [1] Causes of Low Prices - The low price environment is attributed to the pains of transitioning from old to new economic drivers. While the impact of durable goods and rental prices on CPI has eased, weakened income expectations are constraining service consumption growth, preventing a virtuous cycle of consumption expansion, price increase, and wage growth [1] - Supply fluctuations, weak domestic demand, and shrinking external demand are increasing downward pressure on PPI, particularly in midstream chemical products and downstream essential consumer goods [1] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests five key recommendations to address the low price situation, including increasing nominal fiscal deficit rates, implementing inflation-targeted monetary policies, and stabilizing real estate prices to mitigate liquidity risks for major property firms [2] - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing service consumption to alleviate persistent low prices, as service consumption tends to exhibit differentiated supply expansion and price increases, unlike the homogeneous supply of general goods [2][4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the focus of macroeconomic regulation will be on strengthening the coordination of fiscal, monetary, industrial, employment, and social security policies to promote economic supply-demand balance and reasonable price recovery [4] - It advocates for the inclusion of a broad price index, covering general prices (CPI, PPI, and GDP deflator) and asset prices (housing and stock prices), into macroeconomic regulation targets, and encourages the use of unconventional counter-cyclical adjustment policies [4]
多空分歧,原油震荡整理
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 01:47
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 多空分歧 原油震荡整理 宝城期货 闾振兴 尽管 OPEC+延续加速扩产的趋势,但随着前期削减的产能逐步得到修复,未来进一步扩产的空间有限。 与此同时,全球三大能源机构纷纷下调今年的原油需求预期。不过,当前正处于北半球的消费旺季,油市 供需基本面多空分歧较大。受此影响,近期国内外原油期货价格呈现震荡整理走势,其中,国内原油期货 2509 合约价格维持 500~520 元/桶区间波动,上下运行空间均受限。 宏观因素推动原油金融属性增强 上周五,美国稳定币法案在众议院投票中顺利通过,距离正式生效仅差美国总统特朗普签字。该法案 规定稳定币需以美元或美国短期国债作为储备资产,这不仅强化了美元在全球金融体系中的主导地位,还 极有可能在很大程度上化解年内的美债危机,增强美债市场的购买力量,进而降低潜在系统性风险发生的 概率。 与此同时,近期国内"反内卷"政策释放出积极信号。在"蝴蝶效应"的作用下,乐观情绪传导至其他商 品期货领域。在新一轮供给侧结构性改革预期的推动下,近期国内黑色系商品板块与建材系商品板块联袂 大幅上涨,这无疑激发了能化商品多头的热情。 ...
方大集团中兴商业培育新场景引领消费新潮流
Liao Ning Ri Bao· 2025-07-28 22:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth and operational improvements of Zhongxing Commercial in the retail sector, driven by innovative marketing strategies and enhanced customer engagement [1][2][3][4][5] - Zhongxing Commercial launched 10 promotional activities in the first half of the year, with sales from these events accounting for 65% of total sales, focusing on attracting diverse customer demographics through immersive experiences [1][2] - The company has implemented a "goodwill service" approach, enhancing brand reputation and customer satisfaction through improved service quality and staff training [2][3] Group 2 - Membership operations have seen a qualitative change, with member consumption numbers increasing by 1.6% and consumption amounts rising by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating a growing loyalty among customers [3] - Zhongxing Commercial is actively introducing new products and services to enhance its business model, including the opening of the Shenyang Zhongxing Dinosaur Museum, which integrates education and entertainment [4][5] - The company has leveraged policy benefits to stimulate consumer demand, resulting in sales exceeding 32 million yuan in the first half of the year through strategic discounts and promotions [5]
策略周思考:“内卷式”消灭1到2倍市净率和“反内卷”行情
Guoxin Securities· 2025-07-28 14:47
Group 1 - The report highlights a significant reduction in the proportion of stocks with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1-2x, dropping from approximately 45% in early April to below 30% by late July, indicating a market trend towards eliminating low PB stocks [1][11][12] - Historical analysis shows that the complete elimination of 1-2x PB stocks occurred only during specific periods, such as 2014-2015, driven primarily by active leverage in the market [14][17][22] - The report identifies necessary but insufficient conditions for the systematic elimination of 1-2x PB stocks, including the continuous expansion of profit effects, influx of incremental funds, and alignment of fundamental expectations across various styles [2][26] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" phenomenon is characterized by a two-phase excess return path in heavy asset industries, transitioning from "ROA→, PB↑" to "ROA↑, PB→" [3][36] - The report references the previous supply-side structural reforms in 2016, where industries like coal and steel experienced significant price and volume reversals, driven by policy changes that addressed overcapacity [29][32] - Current core industries under the "anti-involution" theme include photovoltaic materials, cement, and basic chemicals, with a focus on selecting companies that maintain cash flow despite profit losses [39][43]