分析师 1: 好的，各位投资人晚上好，非常欢迎参加我们今天的这场电话会。今天我们是非常荣幸的 邀请到一位在行业非常资深的高端购物中心的专家。为我们分享一下春节假期高端消费的 大致情况。那今天我们就直接进行 QA 了，然后有几个大家共性关注的问题，我先跟专家 做个请教，就第一个先麻烦专家帮我们分享，跟拆分一下春节假期在可比口径下。我们这 边的，包括销售额，还有客流、客单的一个大致情况，跟去年同期的对比，谢谢。 高端购物中心行业专家: 那， OK，行。长度和跨度其实都不太一样。那么考虑到整个口径相同的一个原因，然后 我就统一的就按照这个叫什么？按照从大年三十就是我们所说的除夕，除夕那一天，然后 到年初六，大概 7 天的这样的一个数据，然后去做一个对比，这样可能两年之间的这样的 一个口径，就把它变得趋同或者相同。然后更有可比性一点。那么我们系统内部的这个情 况是这个样子的，因为刚刚过去的春节。然后我们今天才是第一天上班，正式上班。然后 有些数据其实还是在，正在在这个统计的过程当中，可能应该等一下，我们要问到的有， 有些品牌或者分品牌的一些情况，可能现在目前可能还不能完全的去展示出来。 但是这个我觉得其实问题并不大， ...

马年之后是羊年，奥飞娱乐：推出潮玩和快闪店，打造覆盖全年龄段的喜羊羊IP作品 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） ...

Group 1 - In 2025, China's foreign trade showed strong resilience, with total exports reaching a historical high, growing by 5.5% year-on-year, despite a complex external environment [1][57] - China's trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, marking a significant increase of 19.8% year-on-year [1][57] - The net export of goods and services contributed 1.64 percentage points to GDP growth, the second-highest level since 2007, only behind 2021 [3] Group 2 - The diversification of external demand has strengthened, with emerging markets compensating for the decline in exports to the US, which fell by 19.79% year-on-year [6] - Exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the Middle East saw significant growth rates of 25.9%, 13.64%, and 9.7% respectively, contributing positively to the overall export scale [6] - The share of US exports in China's total exports decreased by 3.53 percentage points to 11.15% [6] Group 3 - The product structure of China's foreign trade is shifting towards higher value chains, with high-end products like electrical machinery, machinery, automobiles, and ships being the main export drivers [8] - Traditional light industrial products such as furniture and toys have seen a decline in export scale due to tariff friction and industrial chain relocation [8] Group 4 - The restructuring of global supply chains is creating significant opportunities for Chinese companies, with a notable increase in the number of Chinese enterprises establishing production capacities abroad, reaching 229 in 2025, nearly doubling from 2024 [18] - ASEAN, Mexico, and India are the primary destinations for Chinese production capacity outflows, with ASEAN covering a wide range of industries [18] Group 5 - The AI expansion cycle is a core focus in the Chinese capital market, with significant growth expected in AI computing hardware, supported by macro investment scales and healthy balance sheets of major tech companies [29][30] - The capital expenditure of major cloud service providers is projected to increase significantly, reflecting strong demand for AI computing [35] Group 6 - Cultural and technological value output is becoming a major trend for Chinese enterprises going abroad, with significant growth in IP exports and innovative products in sectors like gaming and new dining [39][41] - The Chinese innovative pharmaceutical sector is increasingly integrated into the global supply chain, with more products commercialized in the US and Europe [41] Group 7 - Key sectors with strong overseas expansion opportunities in 2026 include new energy (batteries, grid equipment), machinery, TMT (technology, media, telecommunications), and innovative pharmaceuticals [46] - The gaming industry is also highlighted for its potential, with significant overseas revenue growth expected [49]

Core Insights - The sponsorship history of the CCTV Spring Festival Gala reflects China's economic development and industrial upgrades over the past four decades, showcasing three major transitions: from basic needs to consumer electronics and automobiles, from virtual economy to hard technology, and from demographic dividend to engineer dividend [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Sponsorship Trends - In the 1980s, the main sponsors represented basic household needs, with brands like 康巴丝 leading the way, highlighting the public's desire for precision and the prosperity of light industry [1]. - The 1990s saw a shift towards quality consumption, with liquor brands and home appliance giants like 美的集团 becoming prominent sponsors, marking a transition from survival to quality-focused consumption [1]. Group 2: The Rise of Internet and Technology - The year 2015 marked a turning point with the emergence of internet giants like WeChat and Alipay, initiating a "red envelope war" that transformed user engagement and payment methods [2]. - As the internet traffic peaked, the focus shifted to hard technology, with a notable increase in sponsorship from the electric vehicle sector, indicating a fundamental shift in China's competitive edge from demographic to engineer dividends [2]. Group 3: Future Trends and Cultural Consumption - The upcoming 2026 Spring Festival Gala will feature new partnerships with brands like 名创优品 and 卡游, suggesting a potential shift towards "emotional value" and "cultural consumption" as new wealth drivers in a mature market [3]. - The evolution of sponsors serves as a "value anchor" migration, reflecting China's economic transitions from production capabilities to creative intelligence, providing a lens to observe the pulse of the times [3].

Macro Trends - China's economy is transitioning from a real estate cycle bottoming out to a strategic shift towards high-end manufacturing, with real estate prices stabilizing around 4.53% of GDP, approaching the lower end of the 4%-6% range seen in the US and Japan[12][14]. - The manufacturing sector is accelerating domestic substitution in key areas like automotive and machinery, moving from scale dividends to high-value global value chain competition[2]. Global Expansion - Chinese companies are evolving from merely exporting products to building ecosystems, leveraging channels, capital, and products for comprehensive value and cultural output[3]. - The gaming industry has seen significant success, with 12 Chinese games ranking in the global top 30 revenue list, led by Tencent's "Honor of Kings"[50]. Consumer Behavior - The consumption cycle is shifting from a "total volume era" to a "structural era," focusing on precise segmentation and supply reconstruction, driven by a younger high-net-worth demographic[4]. - Retail and commercial real estate are transitioning from simple sales to a focus on professionalism and experiential offerings, reflecting a K-shaped differentiation in consumer preferences[4]. Asset Management - The global asset management landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, with gold and other assets moving independently from traditional stock-bond frameworks, challenging conventional asset allocation strategies[5]. - The rise of quantitative products and the diversity of ETF funds are significantly impacting active management models, reshaping the funding ecosystem both domestically and internationally[5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the service CPI sector [2] Core Insights - The service consumption CPI is expected to restart its upward trend, driven by stronger performance compared to overall consumption [7] - The demand for service consumption is resilient, particularly in sectors like tourism and entertainment, which are currently in a phase where prices are more likely to rise than fall [15] - The report highlights the importance of government policies aimed at boosting consumption, including various initiatives to enhance service quality and expand domestic demand [12] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Service CPI - Service consumption CPI is performing better than overall consumption CPI, indicating a potential for price increases in the service sector [7] 2. Price Increases in Service Sectors - Hotel prices are expected to show elasticity due to supply-demand convergence and anti-monopoly measures [7] - The restaurant sector's ability to pass on costs to consumers is under observation, with Western fast food and tea drinks showing relative advantages [7] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong demand resilience and potential for price increases, particularly in tourism and hospitality [7] 4. Policy Support - Various government policies are outlined, including actions to stimulate consumption and improve service quality, which are expected to support the service sector's growth [12]

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 27,266, up 0.3% for the day and 6.4% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) showed a significant increase of 1.6% for the day and 16.0% YTD [2] - The Nikkei 225 rose by 2.3% for the day and 14.5% YTD, indicating strong performance in the Japanese market [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude oil prices increased by 1.3% to US$70 per barrel, with a YTD rise of 15.2% [3] - Gold prices rose by 1.2% to US$5,084 per ounce, reflecting a YTD increase of 17.7% [3] - Copper prices decreased by 0.5% to US$13,108 per ton, with a YTD increase of 5.5% [3] Fiscal Policy Insights - In 2025, China's broad fiscal deficit reached a record high of RMB 12.1 trillion, accounting for 8.6% of GDP, with a public budget deficit ratio of 4% [6] - Fiscal revenue fell by 2.2% in 2025, which was RMB 640 billion below the initial budget target [6] - Broad fiscal expenditure grew by 2.2% to RMB 40.3 trillion, a decrease in growth rate of 0.4 percentage points from 2024 [6] Economic Outlook - For 2026, broad fiscal expenditure growth is expected to accelerate to 3.3%, with a projected fiscal deficit ratio narrowing to 8.2% [7] - CPI in January showed a 0.2% YoY increase, while core CPI growth weakened to 0.8% [9] - PPI decline narrowed from -1.9% in December to -1.4% in January, indicating some recovery in industrial prices [11] Sector Performance - The Chinese pop toy sector is expected to gain traction globally in 2026, driven by increased consumer familiarity and diverse IP offerings [14] - Fertiglobe's core earnings surged 87% YoY to US$325 million in 2025, with a forecasted growth of 42% YoY in 2026 [18] - SMIC reported mixed results for 4Q25, with revenue exceeding expectations but margins under pressure due to increased costs [21]

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu has been officially approved as a pilot city for new consumption formats, models, and scenarios in 2025, with a focus on supporting various innovative consumption initiatives [2] Group 1: Support for New Consumption Formats - The government has established a management method to support the new consumption formats, including the "first launch economy" and diverse service consumption scenarios [2][3] - Financial incentives are provided, with rewards up to 1.5 million yuan for first launch economic scenarios and various amounts for different types of projects [3] Group 2: Development of First Launch Economy - The initiative aims to create a robust service system for the first launch economy, including the establishment of first launch centers and economic clusters in key commercial areas [3] - Specific financial rewards include 800,000 yuan for establishing first launch centers and 1.5 million yuan for flagship stores [3] Group 3: Innovation in Service Consumption Scenarios - The plan encourages innovation in service consumption, integrating digital technologies like AI and the metaverse into sectors such as entertainment, tourism, and health [4] - Financial support is available for projects that enhance service consumption areas, with subsidies up to 30% of effective investment, capped at 30 million yuan per project [4] Group 4: Collaboration with Known IPs - The initiative promotes collaboration with global and local IPs to develop a range of consumer products and experiences [5][6] - Financial incentives include 1.5 million yuan for projects that link with well-known IPs and a minimum investment requirement of 5 million yuan for comprehensive consumption scenarios [6]

Core Viewpoint - Dongguan is solidifying its position as a manufacturing hub, with significant contributions from the industrial sector to GDP growth and a focus on advanced manufacturing and digital transformation initiatives [3][4]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Developments - The contribution of the industrial sector to Dongguan's GDP exceeds 80%, with advanced manufacturing value-added growth at 15.8%, accounting for 52.2% of the industrial sector [3]. - Dongguan has been selected as a pilot city for national initiatives in manufacturing technology upgrades and digital transformation, with over 50% growth in technology investment and nearly 2,000 new digital transformation projects annually [3]. - The city has established a modern industrial system categorized as "8+8+4," with over 1,800 new projects worth over 100 million yuan and nearly 200 projects worth over 1 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Emerging Industries and Innovations - Dongguan is actively seizing opportunities in the "Artificial Intelligence +" sector, launching policies to support AI and service industry development, including the operation of the first city-level large model center in the manufacturing field [4]. - New industries such as low-altitude economy and robotics are thriving, with a focus on fashion and domestic products showcasing manufacturing aesthetics [5]. Group 3: Future Plans and Strategic Actions - In 2026, Dongguan plans to implement the "Industrial System Enhancement" action to cultivate new productive forces and modernize its industrial system, aiming to increase the proportion of strategic emerging industries [6]. - The city will focus on AI and robotics, aiming to develop capabilities in AI mobile devices, servers, and glasses, and establish training grounds for intelligent robots [6]. - Plans include constructing low-altitude economic infrastructure and semiconductor industry parks, targeting a scale of over 65 billion yuan for the semiconductor and integrated circuit industries [8]. Group 4: Service Sector and Brand Development - Dongguan aims to enhance its modern service industry, targeting an increase in the service sector's contribution to GDP to 45% [9]. - The city is focused on building a brand matrix for manufacturing, fostering local, leading, and international brands, and supporting the development of the Hongmeng ecosystem [10].

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve revenue of 50-52.8 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 57-64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.23-1.4 billion yuan, an increase of 222.38%-266.94% compared to the previous year [1] - The snack wholesale business is projected to generate revenue of 50-52 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 57.28%-63.57%, and a net profit of 2.2-2.6 billion yuan, resulting in a net profit margin of 4.40%-5.10% [1] - In Q4 2025, the snack wholesale business is expected to achieve revenue of 13.842-15.842 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.7%-37.0%, and a net profit of 508-908 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 60.3%-186.4% [1] Group 2 - The company is continuously optimizing store operations and iterating new store formats, which include introducing baking and trendy toy categories, enhancing product structure, and improving operational efficiency through digitalization [2] - The company is increasing the number of its private label products across various categories, including snacks and beverages, with positive market feedback [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, there is significant potential for store expansion in lower-tier markets, which is expected to drive rapid growth in the number of stores and further enhance profitability [2] Group 3 - The company forecasts revenues of 51.408 billion yuan in 2025, 62.539 billion yuan in 2026, and 70.289 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 59.02%, 21.65%, and 12.39% respectively [2] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 1.313 billion yuan, 2.007 billion yuan, and 2.277 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 347.49%, 52.83%, and 13.42% respectively [2] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are expected to be 29.1, 19.0, and 16.8 times [2]