以时尚消费为核心的新兴力量，正在深刻塑造城市的商业竞争力，解锁未来发展的无限可能性。由北京市商务局指导，北京市商业联合会和北京商报社联 合主办的2025年度（第十九届）北京商业论坛将于1月16日在北京国际饭店举办。本届论坛以"潮尚聚变·新需求与新供给"为主题，聚焦新兴消费，展望北 京商业新未来。 该报告围绕"情绪价值""场景创新""文化跨界"三部分，记录了北京消费从"功能满足"到 "体验升级"的转变，其中，情绪价值激活消费动能，场景创新拓展 消费空间，文化跨界提升消费能级。调查发现，以潮玩、谷子、演唱会等为主的消费内容成为消费者社交链接，从而达成自我认同和精神满足；特色小店 完成了从点到线再到面的布局，形成了特色的Citywalk路线，成为北京文商旅融合的特色地标打卡地；多种形式的小酒馆和打酒铺成为北京夜经济的承载 体，让酒不再是消费品，而是社交和疗愈的"情绪纽带"；非遗产业通过短视频的窗口，让更多线上、线下观众了解其背后的秘密及商业价值。 基于对北京商业新版图的调研走访，《2025北京商业发展蓝皮书》发现，当下，北京正以 "潮尚消费"为切口，构建兼具国际范儿与烟火气的消费新生 态，真正的好消费是具有时尚、潮 ...

最近有本名叫《以日为鉴》的书颇为流行，全书的论点并不新奇，还是以日本"失去的三十年"，作为我们的镜鉴。大概恰逢最近的社会情绪，让人看了既 有隔岸观火之感，又隐隐有些担忧。 客观而言，这本书对于日本问题的回溯是非常详细的，毕竟用了超过十万字，但可能是作者自身的兴趣原因，书中竟很少着墨于日本本土的消费市场，寥 寥几处，也只简单概括为"低欲望社会"。 01 选择性消费升级 但当整个行业走出低价内卷，却发现情况确实和想象的不一样，原来中国并没有走进所谓的"消费更年期"。 可以为这个观点提供佐证的，是近日由北京大学国家发展研究院等机构联合编制的《中国线上消费品牌指数（CBI）第三期报告》（以下简称报告），在 远离"618"与"双11"的2025年第三季度，全国线上消费品牌指数（CBI）依然达到了62.65，较2023年同期增长4.4%，2024年同期增长0.92%，而且2023年以 来每个季度同比都是增长的。 要注意，消费品牌指数（CBI）并不是一个消费规模的概念，其核心是体现消费者在购物中，购买高品质品牌商品的比例，当更多人选择购买高品质的品 牌商品，而非白牌，这个指数才会上升。指数利用了中国最大的电商平台淘宝全量大 ...

针对今日数码博主爆料"泡泡玛特将推出潮玩手机"的传言，泡泡玛特相关负责人1月12日对"人民鉴 真"资本市场信息服务平台表示，公司没有研发手机的计划，近期会和知名手机品牌推出IP联名合作。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

针对今日数码博主爆料"泡泡玛特将推出潮玩手机"的传言，泡泡玛特相关负责人1月12日对"人民鉴 真"资本市场信息服务平台表示，公司没有研发手机的计划，近期会和知名手机品牌推出IP联名合作。 ...

复赛现场，来自全国各地的青年大学生与设计团队齐聚运河之畔，围绕"水脉·文脉""匠心·新生""流动·共 生"三大主题方向，展开了一场文化与创意交融的精彩角逐。参赛作品涵盖文具、潮玩、生活用品、非 遗衍生品等多个品类，既有对博物馆馆藏文物的现代诠释，也有对运河沿线非遗技艺的活化运用，更不 乏融合水利、舟桥等运河符号的当代设计，展现出年轻一代对运河文化的深刻理解与创新表达。 转自：扬子晚报 千年古运河，扬波新时代。1月11日，由大运河博物馆联盟、扬州中国大运河博物馆主办，中建八局文 旅博览投资发展有限公司承办的"运河绘新生·创意融古今"文创设计大赛复赛收官。 本次大赛自启动以来受到社会各界的广泛关注，累计征集参赛作品362件。经严格筛选，最终16组优秀 作品脱颖而出，入围现场复赛 。评审团队汇聚文博、设计、传媒、文旅等多领域专家，从创意性与艺 术价值、文化内涵、完成度与实用性、传播力与话题性等维度进行综合评议。经过多轮评审，最终评选 出一等奖1名、二等奖2名、三等奖3名、优秀奖5名及入围奖5名。 高起点平台。以赛事为媒，未来必将吸引更多创意力量持续聚焦大运河的生态之美与人文之韵，汇聚文 创发展的蓬勃动能，推动大运河 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and enhancing consumption as key strategies for China's economic growth in 2026, highlighting the potential for new investment opportunities and market dynamics [3][4][11]. Group 1: Economic Context and Trends - 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on leveraging positive factors for economic growth and investment opportunities [2]. - The consumer market in China is vibrant, driven by various trends such as the "Su Chao" economy and the popularity of rural cultural tourism, indicating the immense potential of the super-large market [2]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Consumption - The central economic work meeting prioritizes "domestic demand as the main driver" to build a strong domestic market, underscoring the urgency of expanding domestic demand strategies [3]. - China's population of over 1.4 billion and more than 400 million middle-income individuals provide a solid foundation for domestic demand growth, despite current challenges of insufficient demand [4]. Group 3: Policy Measures and Implementation - The government aims to enhance consumer capacity through targeted policies, including the "Urban and Rural Residents Income Increase Plan," which aligns income growth with economic development [5][4]. - The implementation of consumption upgrade policies, such as the "old-for-new" program, has already driven significant sales, with over 2.5 trillion yuan in sales linked to these initiatives [9]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Adaptation - There is a need to address the mismatch between strong supply and weak demand by enhancing the adaptability of supply to changing consumer preferences [6]. - The government plans to promote high-quality goods and services, with a goal of achieving a high-quality development pattern by 2030, where supply and consumption interact positively [6]. Group 5: Future Growth Opportunities - New consumption growth points are expected to emerge in areas such as product quality enhancement, service expansion, digital upgrades, and green health [11]. - The "Implementation Plan for Enhancing the Adaptability of Consumer Goods Supply and Demand" aims to establish three trillion-yuan consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-yuan consumption hotspots by 2027 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Southwest Securities indicates that the performance of the light industry sector in 2025 is expected to be flat, with cyclical and traditional manufacturing valuations under pressure, while packaging, exports, and personal care sectors show differentiated performance [1] 2025 Sector Review - In 2025, the light industry sector experienced relatively flat performance, with traditional cyclical and manufacturing companies facing valuation pressure. However, the packaging and printing sectors benefited from price increases and cross-industry transformations, leading to better stock performance [1] - The export sector showed some differentiation due to tariff policy disruptions, with companies that have balanced production capacity, strong demand resilience, and low tariff impact performing better [1] - The personal care sector achieved excess returns in the first half of the year but entered a valuation digestion phase in the second half due to intensified competition in e-commerce channels. However, domestic brands are expected to continue their growth trajectory due to product structure optimization and channel expansion [1] 2026 Stock Selection Strategy - The focus will be on undervalued cyclical assets as valuation recovery is anticipated amid changes in the bulk commodity cycle, gradually realizing allocation value [2] - There is a need to balance the valuation and growth potential of new consumption and export sectors, favoring high-growth or low-valuation, high-safety stocks [2] - Four main lines of focus for stock selection include: 1. Gradually emphasizing undervalued cyclical stocks, particularly in the paper sector, which is expected to see price increases driven by "anti-involution" and traditional peak season factors, with net profit per ton likely to recover [2] 2. Export stocks with strong demand resilience and manufacturing capabilities are still considered valuable for allocation, especially those with good growth potential in niche categories and minimal tariff impact [2] 3. Domestic personal care brands are expected to see upward trends in market share and growth potential due to rapid product iteration and competitive pricing [2] 4. New consumption trends in AI glasses, new tobacco products, pet supplies, and trendy toys are expected to continue their upward trajectory, contributing to the growth of the consumption sector [2] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Sun Paper, Bohui Paper, Weigao Medical, Baiya Co., Nobon Co., Yiyi Co., Mengbaihe, and Gujia Home [3]

纵览近年实践，"统筹"二字成为发展的题眼。"世界超市"义乌，既开拓海外新兴市场，又推动"出口转 内销"，统筹出坚韧的"双循环"；具身智能、DeepSeek等产品上新，数智化、绿色化等转型潮涌，创新 链、产业链相融合，统筹出经济质量的提升；海南自贸港全岛封关运作，高质量共建"一带一路"走深走 实，统筹"两个大局"扩大高水平对外开放，传递出更多确定性。 从个人的闲置换新到万亿级市场的蓬勃生长，闲置物品的循环促进"增值"既是消费观念转变的体现，也 是质量变革、效率变革、动力变革的缩影。这些"变"都是高质量发展的驱动因子。以新发展理念为引 领，善于识变、勇于应变、敢于求变，就能不断催生出更多推动高质量发展的新增量。 据《人民日报》 价值"增值"。一件九成新的家电，若被弃置便会"无用"，若经二手买卖，便会继续投入使用；一款绝版 潮玩，在辗转的交易中，不仅实现价值流通，还为爱好者增添情绪价值；一个屏幕损坏、主板完好的手 机，经历闲置流转平台修理之后，可能成为技术"发烧友"的研究对象……从评估维修到物流仓储，闲置 物品的流转链是一条延展的价值链，拓宽了市场的成长空间。 效益"增值"。比如某企业打通线上、线下，集合各种二手商 ...

2026年伊始，卡游招股书再次过期，但卡牌行业的上市故事远未暂停，另一卡牌公司Suplay向港股发起 冲刺。这家此前未被外界熟知的公司，依靠授权IP也成长了起来，虽然规模与卡游差距甚远，但是资本 野心却不小。 随着贡献最多收入的授权IP已经失效，"小而美"的Suplay也急需获得资金用于IP多元化与自有IP孵化。 作为投资者也需要警惕长期依赖授权IP这一商业模式的脆弱性。不过，由于卡游招股书失效，Suplay积 极赴港上市，谁会成为"卡牌第一股"也增添了悬念。 米哈游为外部第一大股东 Suplay入局卡牌领域较晚，其成立于2019年底，从线上小程序起家，但发展颇快，如今已成为一家覆盖 IP、渠道全产业链的潮流IP消费品公司。 Suplay最初以潮玩为主营业务，后转为毛利率更高的卡牌。Suplay收藏品（主要为收藏卡牌）收入从 2023年的4794.6万元升至2024年的1.17亿元，再升至2025年前三季度的1.98亿元，同期对总收入的贡献 率也从32.9%升至41.8%，再升至70%，毛利率分别为57.9%、65.4%及69.5%。同期的消费级产品（主要 为潮玩）分别贡献总收入的67.1%、58.2%及30 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key strategy for economic growth in 2026, highlighting the need for a strong domestic market [1][2] - The article discusses the significant potential of China's consumer market, driven by a population of over 1.4 billion and a growing middle-income group, which lays a solid foundation for domestic demand growth [2][3] - It points out the shift in consumer behavior from goods consumption to a balanced focus on both goods and services, indicating a substantial opportunity in service consumption [2][4] Group 2 - The article outlines the government's plan to enhance supply-demand matching by increasing the supply of quality goods and services, aiming for a high-quality development pattern by 2030 [4][5] - It highlights the role of technology, particularly AI and big data, in capturing consumer demand and driving innovation in product offerings [5][6] - The focus on effective investment is crucial for stimulating domestic demand, with policies aimed at optimizing consumption and investment strategies to create a virtuous cycle [6][7] Group 3 - The article identifies new consumption growth points in areas such as product quality improvement, service expansion, digital upgrades, and green health, which are expected to drive market development [8][9] - It mentions specific sectors projected to become trillion-yuan markets, including elderly products and smart connected vehicles, as well as billion-yuan hotspots like children's products and fitness equipment [9][10] - The overall narrative suggests that as supply and demand achieve a higher level of dynamic balance, China's economy will transition from a "large market" to a "strong market" [10]