2025.12. 27 本文字数：3563，阅读时长大约7分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陆涵之 "那天爆单到外卖机都坏了，没法打印单据，我们只能用手机看然后把订单抄下来再做。"回顾7月初的外卖大战，餐饮人余丽（化名）仍心有余 悸。 2025年7月5日，自4月开始的外卖补贴战进入最高峰，对于不少餐饮人而言也是今年最难忘的一天。 令她哭笑不得的是，忙碌一个月后计算利润时，发现7月的利润不如往常。余丽对第一财经记者表示，7月店里的营业额超20万元，与2024年7 月（当时开业不久）5万元的营业额相比增长了许多。但所有的成本开支也在翻倍：日常每月的水电费为5000元，7月到了1万元。食材、人工 费用也增加了，7月还多雇了一个临时工。平台的活动支出每单也比往常高10%。7月结束后统计收支时，余丽发现爆单的一个月内，几乎没有 利润。 与利润一起下滑的还有客单价。余丽表示，在外卖大战开始前，每单客单价超过30元，大战期间客单价滑落至15元，几乎腰斩。 温州锅贴店主黄林（化名）在今年7月进入餐饮业，刚入行就碰上了外卖大战。由于是新手，初期黄林什么单都接，"当时不少单到手就2元或者 3元，后来有些活动不参与才提高了客单价。" 黄林 ...

2025年7月的外卖补贴战高峰期间，餐饮行业经历了前所未有的爆单与利润下滑并存的矛盾局面。 "那天爆单到外卖机都坏了，没法打印单据，我们只能用手机看然后把订单抄下来再做。"回顾7月初的 外卖大战，餐饮人余丽（化名）仍心有余悸。 2025年7月5日，自4月开始的外卖补贴战进入最高峰，对于不少餐饮人而言也是今年最难忘的一天。 美团、淘宝闪购和京东三家平台持续近半年的超百亿补贴战，让外卖行业成为今年最受关注的行业之 一。当硝烟褪去，生态链中的商家、骑手以及平台需要直面大战留下的影响，并及时进行调整。 爆单了，但没利润 今年的外卖大战，最明显的特点是爆单。期间，商家和骑手都处于满负荷状态。 "又累又赚不到钱。"余丽在广州经营一家小吃店，主营糖水和炸串，7月的周末余丽和店员都格外累。 大战期间，她和店员的身心受到双重挑战。最忙的一天，余丽和店员串了至少4000串炸串，做了500份 糖水，第二天的凌晨3点才下班。 令她哭笑不得的是，忙碌一个月后计算利润时，发现7月的利润不如往常。余丽对第一财经记者表示，7 月店里的营业额超20万元，与2024年7月（当时开业不久）5万元的营业额相比增长了许多。但所有的成 本开支也在翻倍： ...

Core Viewpoint - Foreign convenience store brands, represented by FamilyMart, 7-Eleven, and Lawson, are facing significant challenges in the Chinese market, with a combined closure of over 1,300 stores and a loss of market share to local brands in the online-to-home segment [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - FamilyMart has closed approximately 300 stores in China, while 7-Eleven has closed or relocated around 1,000 stores globally [1]. - Lawson's Shenzhen operations reportedly faced a loss of nearly 80 million yuan in 2022 [1]. - The three foreign brands are struggling to achieve significant sales on major delivery platforms, with most stores averaging only double-digit monthly sales orders [2][3]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Local convenience store brands have gained a strong foothold in the online-to-home market, with many achieving over 10,000 monthly sales orders, while foreign brands have been largely absent from this segment [3][4]. - Local brands like Dolphin Purchase and Squirrel Convenience have significantly higher SKU counts, ranging from 4,000 to 8,000, compared to the 1,000 SKUs offered by FamilyMart, Lawson, and 7-Eleven [4]. Group 3: Pricing and Delivery - Local convenience stores offer more competitive pricing, with examples showing significant price differences for similar products compared to foreign brands [5][10]. - Delivery thresholds and fees for local brands are lower, with some offering free delivery, contrasting with the higher minimum order requirements set by foreign brands [10][11]. Group 4: Historical Context - The foreign brands were early entrants into the online delivery market, launching services around 2015, but have since lost ground to local competitors who have rapidly adapted to consumer preferences [12][13][14]. - Despite initial success, the foreign brands have struggled to maintain their market position as local brands have aggressively expanded their online offerings and improved service [18][20]. Group 5: Industry Trends - The convenience store sector in China has seen explosive growth, with local brands significantly outpacing foreign brands in terms of store count and market presence [23][26]. - The shift towards online retail and the demand for immediate delivery have created a challenging environment for foreign brands, which are now perceived as less appealing to consumers [22][24].

富了即时零售的商品供给品类，加速了 "内容引流 + 电商交易 + 即时配送" 的生态深度融合，推动即时零售与内容生态的联动更紧密。 2 月 11 日，京东外卖正式启动 "品质堂食餐饮商家" 招募计划，明确 2025 年 5 月 1 日前入驻的商家可享受全年免佣金福利，同时京东将为全职骑手足额 缴纳五险一金。此次京东以 "品质外卖" 为核心切入点，正式进军即时零售赛道，直接打破了此前美团、饿了么长期主导的双强格局，让即时零售行业从 "双雄争霸" 正式迈入美团、饿了么、京东三足鼎立的 "三国杀" 时代，行业竞争格局迎来根本性重塑。 3 月 18 日，抖音小时达宣布将带货权限面向全量电商达人开放，达人无需额外申请即可通过短视频种草、直播带货等形式推广即时零售商品，消费者下 单后依托抖音配送网络，最快 30 分钟就能收到商品。这一举措不仅为广大内容创作者开辟了全新的变现路径，让流量快速转化为实际收益，还进一步丰 3 月中旬，多家媒体报道显示，2024 年朴朴超市实现首度全年盈利，全年收入约 300 亿元，毛利率达 22.5%，全段履约费用率控制在 17.5% 以内，全国布 局 400 多个大型前置仓。2025 年朴朴 ...

人民财讯12月26日电，据1919方面12月26日透露，经过审计的财务报表显示，2023年及2024年净利润分 别为5134.73万元和4811.91万元，2025年持续盈利状态但财务报表尚未审计。1919整体交易规模从2023 年的115.79亿元增长至2024年的120.89亿元；2025年，在与淘宝闪购战略合作和即时零售高速增长的推 动下，今年目标是争取突破140亿元。 资料显示，1919是专业的酒类电商平台，2018年曾获阿里巴巴20亿元战略投资，2023年年初主动从新三 板摘牌。 ...

蓝鲨导读：从KA模式到硬折扣，中国超市三十年逻辑变了 "我们要做这个城市最具性价比的超市"——5.99元/斤的猪前尖肉、18.9元/斤的榴莲、8.9元一块的意式比萨、9.8元一个的鸡腿汉堡……这是前不久京东折 扣超市北京首店西山荟店在门头沟开业时的场景。 而两个月前，美团的社区超市快乐猴也在北京门头沟开了一家门店，首次进入北京市场。 时间再往前推两个月，阿里旗下"盒马NB"品牌升级为"超盒算NB"，也凸显了社区硬折扣在阿里即时零售业务中的地位。 从美团的"快乐猴"、阿里的"超盒算NB"到京东折扣超市，曾经在外卖市场缠斗的三大巨头，如今又将战火烧到了实体零售领域。 2025年下半年，互联网巨头为何集体卷入线下折扣零售业态？ 流量的回归 过去十多年间，中国零售的整体发展趋势是互联网电商对于实体零售的"降维打击"——电商平台没有房租，没有导购，边际成本极低，因此可以用价格战 碾压实体店。 事实也确然如此。随着电商的快速发展，线下零售实体店压力巨大。2010年，全国网上零售总额仅5131亿元，占社零总额中的3.3%，到了2025年，前11 个月，全国网上零售额已达144582亿元，其中，实物商品网上零售额118193 ...

Core Insights - Chinese consumers are elevating "eating" to a value-driven choice, with price sensitivity and value sensitivity diverging for the first time. A survey indicates that 63% of mainland consumers are willing to pay a premium for sustainable food, the highest globally [2]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior Trends - 63% of mainland consumers are willing to pay a premium for sustainable food, which is the highest percentage globally [2][13]. - 43% of consumers prioritize sustainable packaging, exceeding the global average by 6 percentage points [2][13]. - 45% of households with annual incomes below $10,000 are using 54% of coupons and 48% of cross-store comparison budgets to invest in organic products [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The retail market is experiencing a dual narrative, balancing economic headwinds and industry prosperity, with an estimated valuation of approximately 4.9 trillion RMB by 2024 [8]. - Discount stores and instant retail are pushing absolute prices to their limits, leading to a disappearance of price elasticity [8][26]. - The rise of discount retailers like HotMaxx and ALDI in mainland China is driving the revival of offline retail, emphasizing the importance of competitive pricing and transparency [26]. Group 3: Health and Sustainability Focus - Chinese consumers are increasingly focused on health and sustainability, with a notable willingness to invest in high-quality, health-oriented products [10][12]. - The trend of "Guochao 2.0" reflects a preference for celebrating domestic brands and reducing the climate impact of food purchases [13][14]. - The integration of health consciousness and environmental awareness is reshaping consumer preferences, with a clear shift towards value-driven consumption [10][12]. Group 4: Retail Strategies - Retailers must adopt a multi-faceted strategy to navigate the complex environment, focusing on clear value propositions, seamless digital and physical experiences, and catering to health trends [14][27]. - Successful strategies involve embracing aggressive and transparent value propositions, investing in private label strategies, and mastering omnichannel sourcing [27]. - The "instant retail" battlefield is crucial, with consumers comparing delivery options within 30 minutes, highlighting the need for retailers to adapt quickly [27].

Investment Focus - Alphabet (GOOGL US) is expected to maintain strong advertising revenue due to AI integration in search functionalities and a significant increase in TPU orders, projecting over 30% growth in cloud business for the year [1] - Alibaba (BABA US) anticipates a cloud business growth rate of 28%-30%, driven by strong demand in China and synergies from its food delivery services, with a projected MAU growth of 20-30% for Taobao [1] - NVIDIA (NVDA US) is expected to achieve strong revenue growth, with projections indicating potential revenue exceeding $500 billion, supported by significant demand for its products [1] - Tencent (700 HK) is recommended for its robust growth in gaming and advertising, with a target price of 700, and is expected to benefit from AI trends [3] - Tencent Music (TME US) is expected to maintain double-digit growth in subscription revenue, supported by its long-term partnerships with top domestic artists [3] - New Oxygen (SY US) is positioned for rapid expansion in the light medical beauty sector, with plans to increase self-operated stores significantly by 2025 [3] - Trip.com (TCOM US) is projected to benefit from the recovery of domestic leisure travel and inbound tourism, with a revenue growth forecast of 14% to 71.1 billion yuan [4] - Kuaishou (1024 HK) is expected to see significant revenue contributions from its advertising solutions, with a target price of 93 [4] - Futu (FUTU US) is recognized for its strong user base and compliance advantages, with a projected PE of 17x for 2026, indicating significant valuation potential [4][5] - AIA (1299 HK) is expected to see steady growth in new business value due to its expansion strategy in mainland China and demand for traditional savings products [5] - Howmet Aerospace (HWM US) is positioned for stable revenue growth due to its strong market position in gas turbine components and a long order backlog [10]

Core Insights - Company 1919 has reported a net profit of 51.35 million yuan in 2023 and 48.12 million yuan in 2024, with 2025 also expected to be profitable, indicating a positive financial trend after three years of no financial disclosures [2] - The overall transaction scale of 1919 has grown from 11.579 billion yuan in 2023 to a projected 12.089 billion yuan in 2024, with a target to exceed 14 billion yuan in 2025, driven by a strategic partnership with Taobao Flash Purchase [2] - The company has undergone a fundamental transformation, moving towards a new development phase that emphasizes both scale and quality, largely due to strategic decisions made by founder Yang Lingjiang [2] Strategic Decisions - In 2023, 1919 decisively abandoned most of its premium liquor distribution rights, initiating a three-year inventory reduction strategy that helped avoid losses from declining liquor prices and significantly reduced financial costs associated with liquor procurement, achieving zero inventory for premium liquor [2] - The company has shifted away from heavy asset investments by reducing the number of directly operated stores and significantly increasing franchise stores, resulting in a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio from 92% three years ago to below 20% now, leading to healthier financial and operational conditions while maintaining sales growth [3] New Business Model - Recently, 1919's founder Yang Lingjiang acquired a controlling stake of over 73% in the Hong Kong-listed company Yiyuan Wine Industry, which has led to speculation about the company's future direction [4] - The company is reportedly building a "F2B2C" (Factory to Business to Consumer) business model, utilizing the capital platform of Yiyuan Wine Industry to acquire established wineries, creating a matrix of various terminal types on the business side, and leveraging data-driven "instant satisfaction" and "lifestyle" services on the consumer side [4]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of 73.63% of Yiyuan Wine Industry by Yang Lingjiang, founder of 1919 Wine Supply, for approximately 1.41 billion RMB (1.56 billion HKD) raises questions about the strategic direction of both companies amid a challenging market environment [3][11][12]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - Yang Lingjiang's acquisition of Yiyuan Wine Industry, known as the "first domestic winery stock," occurs during a period of significant operational challenges for both Yiyuan and 1919 [3][11]. - Yiyuan Wine Industry has faced financial difficulties, reporting losses of 600,000 RMB in 2022 and 41 million RMB in 2024, with a total market value of only 2.12 billion HKD prior to the acquisition [3][12]. - Despite a 151% increase in stock price this year, Yiyuan's stock remains at a low level, indicating potential for growth through strategic integration [3][12]. Group 2: Strategic Rationale - Industry expert Xiao Zhuqing suggests that the acquisition is driven by Yiyuan's asset value, integration potential, and capital operation expectations, despite its operational pressures [4][12]. - Yang's personal acquisition strategy allows for quick transaction execution and the establishment of an independent capital platform, which may help mitigate performance volatility [4][12]. - The acquisition coincides with 1919's ongoing debt issues, as franchisees have raised concerns over unpaid debts, which have been a source of public scrutiny [5][12]. Group 3: Financial Health and Transformation - Yang Lingjiang has publicly stated that 1919 has repaid nearly 6 billion RMB in debt, reducing its debt ratio from 92% to below 20%, with a net asset value of 1 billion RMB [5][13]. - The company is undergoing a significant business model transformation, shifting from traditional retail to an "instant retail + restaurant wine integration" model, which requires substantial upgrades across its 3,000 stores [5][13]. - The transition to a new business model has faced resistance from franchisees, who are concerned about the frequent changes and associated costs [6][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Yang has ambitious plans for 1919, aiming to establish it as a leading F2B2C company within five years and the largest global platform in the same category within ten years [7][14]. - The recent acquisition of Yiyuan Wine Industry is seen as a potential step towards simplifying the listing process for 1919, enhancing control and operational efficiency [7][14]. - However, the path to relisting is fraught with challenges, including the current downturn in the wine industry and regulatory hurdles for IPOs in Hong Kong [7][14].