1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Recommend shorting on rallies [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand balance of crude oil has weakened, with supply increasing and demand facing uncertainties, so it is advisable to short on rallies [4] 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side Factors - Iraq's Oil Ministry will restart the export of crude oil from the Kurdish region on Tuesday, which is expected to increase Iraq's crude oil exports by 300,000 - 400,000 barrels per day [1][2] - OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. From October 2025, OPEC+ will implement a daily production adjustment of 137,000 barrels, and plans to continue to lift the voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day after lifting the first - layer additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day. In August, OPEC+ crude oil production was 42.4 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 509,000 barrels per day. Kpler expects OPEC+ maritime exports to increase by more than 1.1 million barrels per day in September [2] - Kuwait will increase its crude oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day from October, with a production capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day [2] - The United States' crude oil production is basically stable, and new production capacities in countries such as Brazil, Guyana, and Norway have been put into operation, leading to a continuous increase in crude oil supply [2] Demand - side Factors - The peak season for crude oil travel is basically over. The EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased by 9.285 million barrels unexpectedly, but refined oil inventories have increased unexpectedly, and overall oil product inventories continue to rise. The U.S. refinery's operating rate has dropped by 1.6 percentage points [3] - The weak U.S. non - farm payrolls data has raised concerns about crude oil demand [4] Other Factors - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its September meeting, but Powell is still cautious about further rate cuts, and the macro - situation is temporarily stable [4] - The EU has passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on shadow tankers and setting a crude oil price cap at $47.6 per barrel. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement negotiation and Russia's crude oil export situation [4] - Chinese independent refineries have reduced ESPO purchases due to uncertain quotas [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $62.36 per barrel, up 0.40% for the week; ICE Brent crude futures closed at $66.05 per barrel, down 0.60% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 483.6 yuan per barrel, up 1.75% for the week [5]. - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point rate cut, which supported oil prices. However, Russia's plan to protect the national budget and OPEC +'s production - increase plan increased concerns about supply glut, causing oil prices to fall in the second half of the week [5]. - Citi analysts believe that Brent crude prices will gradually fall to around $60 per barrel from the end of this year to 2026. OPEC +'s decision to gradually cancel the "second - round production cuts" will increase global crude oil inventories [6]. - The US and the EU are increasing sanctions on Russia's energy exports, but India's refineries are not willing to stop buying Russian crude due to rising domestic fuel demand [6]. - Sino - US trade negotiations have made some progress, and the EU's new sanctions on Russia will have a short - term emotional impact on the market. It is expected that crude oil will continue to fluctuate, and supply pressure will drag down oil prices in the absence of geopolitical stimuli [7]. - In terms of operation, trade within the range of 470 - 505 in the short term, and long - term long positions should be liquidated on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Oil price trends: NYMEX WTI crude futures rose 0.40% for the week, ICE Brent crude futures fell 0.60% for the week, and Shanghai crude oil futures rose 1.75% for the week [5]. - Supply - side factors: Attacks on Russian oil ports by Ukraine may lead to a reduction of about 300,000 barrels per day in Russian refining capacity. The US plans new energy sanctions on Russia, and OPEC + is continuing its production - increase plan [5]. - Macro - factors: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but there are differences within the FOMC on the rate - cut amplitude. The Fed's dot - plot median shows that it is expected to cut rates twice more this year [5]. - Market sentiment: The net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil futures increased, and geopolitical tensions partly boosted the market [5]. 3.2 Related News - Citi's forecast: Brent crude prices will gradually fall to around $60 per barrel from the end of this year to 2026, and global crude oil inventories are expected to increase [6]. - Sanctions on Russia: The US Senate is seeking to increase financial pressure on Russia's energy exports, and the EU is discussing a new round of sanctions targeting Russia's oil and gas production [6]. - India's oil imports: Indian refineries are not willing to stop buying Russian crude due to rising domestic fuel demand after the monsoon season, but the volume of imports may be lower than previous peaks [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Market trends: Crude oil is expected to continue to fluctuate, and supply pressure will drag down oil prices in the absence of geopolitical stimuli [7]. - Operational suggestions: Trade within the range of 470 - 505 in the short term, and long - term long positions should be liquidated on rallies [8]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot prices: The prices of various crude oil varieties such as Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. all increased, with the increase ranging from 0.39 to 0.94 dollars, and the increase rate ranging from 0.56% to 1.43% [11]. - Inventory data: The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory have fluctuated in the past few months, with the Cushing inventory at 2356.1 million barrels as of September 12, a decrease of 29.6 million barrels from the previous period, and the EIA inventory at 41536.1 million barrels, a decrease of 928.5 million barrels from the previous period [13][14]. 3.5持仓数据 - CFTC data: As of the week of September 16, speculators' net long positions in WTI crude oil increased by 16,865 contracts to 98,709 contracts [5][20]. - ICE data: As of the week of September 16, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased by 22,593 contracts to 232,171 contracts [5][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - After geopolitical factors are digested by the market, the expectation of oversupply in the oil market becomes the dominant factor. Due to the bearish August production data of OPEC+ oil - producing countries and the upcoming off - season demand in the Northern Hemisphere, the pressure of oversupply in the fourth quarter increases, leading to a trend of rising first and then falling in domestic and international crude oil futures prices this week, with the increase in futures prices converging. OPEC+ continuing to expand production may lead to greater pressure of oversupply in crude oil in the fourth quarter of this year and a downward shift in the oil price center. The geopolitical risks still need attention. In the short - term background dominated by supply negatives, it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4]. Summary According to the Catalog 1 Market Review 1.1 Spot Prices Rise Significantly, and Basis Discount Narrows Slightly - As of the week ending September 19, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was quoted at $65.39 per barrel, equivalent to a RMB quote of 465.1 yuan per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 12.6 yuan per barrel. The main domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 closed at 486.0 yuan per barrel, with a significant week - on - week increase of 10.7 yuan per barrel. The discount degree narrowed slightly, and the basis between them was 20.9 yuan per barrel [8]. 1.2 Bearish Factors Dominate, Crude Oil Rises First and Then Falls - After geopolitical factors are digested by the market, the expectation of oversupply in the oil market becomes the dominant factor. Due to the bearish August production data of OPEC+ oil - producing countries and the upcoming off - season demand in the Northern Hemisphere, the pressure of oversupply in the fourth quarter increases, leading to a trend of rising first and then falling in domestic and international crude oil futures prices this week, with the increase in futures prices converging. The cumulative increase of the domestic crude oil futures contract 2511 this week reached 2.16% to 487.0 yuan per barrel [4][11][12]. 2 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus Escalates, and the Pace of Production Increase Accelerates 2.1 OPEC+ Accelerates Capacity Release, and the Expectation of Supply Surplus Increases - In August 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 27.948 million barrels per day, a significant month - on - month increase of 478,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 1.296 million barrels per day. Since April 2025, OPEC+ has shifted from a production - cut cycle to a production - increase cycle, with a cumulative production increase of 1.919 million barrels per day from April to August. The production increase decision of OPEC+ does not mean the full realization of actual production, and the actual production may be affected by various factors [23][24][25]. 2.2 Non - OPEC Oil - Producing Countries' Capacity Remains at a High Level - Since 2025, the crude oil production in the United States has remained at a high level. As of the week ending September 12, 2025, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 416, a slight week - on - week increase of 2, and a decrease of 72 compared with the same period last year. The daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.482 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 13,000 barrels per day and a slight year - on - year increase of 282,000 barrels per day [40]. 2.3 The Peak Season of Crude Oil Demand in the Northern Hemisphere is Coming to an End - Entering September, the peak season of crude oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere will come to an end, the demand factor will gradually weaken, the inventory depletion rhythm will slow down, and the pressure of inventory accumulation will come. Different energy institutions have different views on the future oil market. OPEC expects a tighter oil market next year, while EIA and IEA expect a record - breaking supply surplus in the global oil market next year [43][44][45]. 2.4 U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Drops Significantly, and Refinery Utilization Rate Decreases Slightly - As of the week ending September 12, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 415 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels and a significant decrease of 2.152 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The refinery utilization rate in the United States was maintained at 93.9%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1.60 percentage points [47]. 2.5 China's Crude Oil Imports Increased Slightly in August 2025 - In August 2025, China's crude oil imports reached 49.492 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 2.288 million tons and a slight year - on - year increase of 392,000 tons. However, looking forward to the Chinese crude oil market in 2025, crude oil processing and import consumption may be restricted by weak demand [50]. 3 U.S. - Russia Summit, Cooling of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - On August 15, 2025, U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin met in Alaska. Although no agreement was reached, the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to cool down, which will lead to a shrinkage of the premium of international crude oil futures, and the focus of the oil market will shift to the supply - demand structure [60][63]. 4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Decrease Significantly Week - on - Week - Since September 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a volatile downward trend, and the market's long - making power has continued to shrink. As of September 9, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was maintained at 81,844 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 20,584 contracts [65]. 5 Conclusion - OPEC+ continuing to expand production may lead to greater pressure of oversupply in crude oil in the fourth quarter of this year and a downward shift in the oil price center. The geopolitical risks still need attention. In the short - term background dominated by supply negatives, it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [4][68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced slight declines due to increased diesel inventories and upward adjustments in supply surplus pressure by organizations like IEA and EIA, despite favorable conditions such as crude oil inventory reductions and interest rate cuts [2][9]. - As of September 19, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were recorded at $66.04 and $62.40 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.42% and 0.46% respectively from the previous week [2][28]. - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a decline of 1.99% in the week ending September 19, 2025, while the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.44% [10][13]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $66.04 per barrel, down $0.95 (-1.42%), while WTI crude futures settled at $62.40 per barrel, down $0.29 (-0.46%) [2][28]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 372, a decrease of 2 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms increased by 1 to 131 [32]. U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.482 million barrels per day, a decrease of 13,000 barrels from the previous week [55]. U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing averaged 16.424 million barrels per day, down 394,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.30%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points [64][66]. U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 821 million barrels, a decrease of 8.781 million barrels (-1.06%) from the previous week [75]. Finished Oil Products - In North America, the average weekly prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $98.27, $84.52, and $87.49 per barrel respectively, with respective price differences from crude oil of $30.72, $16.97, and $19.93 [97].

Group 1: US-China Relations - The phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump on September 19 was described as pragmatic, positive, and constructive, focusing on stabilizing and developing US-China relations [1][2] - Xi emphasized the importance of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, urging both sides to avoid unilateral trade restrictions and to create a fair business environment for Chinese companies in the US [2][3] - Trump acknowledged the significance of US-China relations and expressed a desire for long-term cooperation, highlighting the potential for both countries to contribute positively to global peace and stability [2][3] Group 2: TikTok and Trade Negotiations - The discussions included the ongoing issue of TikTok, with China expressing its willingness to respect market rules and facilitate negotiations that align with Chinese laws [2][4] - The call was seen as a critical moment in the context of a 90-day "tariff truce" that is set to last until early November, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [3] - Analysts noted that the communication between the two leaders sends a positive signal for future economic negotiations and may help alleviate trade-related tensions [3] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Domestic crude oil prices fell nearly 2%, driven by concerns over weak demand, geopolitical factors, and increased production from OPEC+ [6][7] - Analysts pointed out that the US's poor demand outlook is overshadowing potential benefits from Federal Reserve rate cuts, leading to investor concerns about oil demand [6] - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October, contributing to a supply surplus that is expected to keep oil prices under pressure [6][7] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Iran situation and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, are contributing to market volatility and influencing oil prices [8][9] - The seasonal decline in demand due to the end of summer electricity peaks in the Middle East and ongoing maintenance at US refineries is expected to further pressure oil prices [8][9] - The overall sentiment in the oil market remains cautious, with expectations of weak price performance unless geopolitical situations worsen significantly [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the collective decline in domestic crude oil-related products is primarily driven by concerns over demand outlook, geopolitical factors, and OPEC+ production increases [1][2][3] Group 2 - Demand outlook is pessimistic, particularly in the U.S., which is the largest consumer of crude oil, overshadowing the potential positive effects of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][2] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the reinstatement of UN sanctions on Iran and comments from U.S. President Trump, are contributing to market fears regarding oil supply stability [1][2] - OPEC+ has been increasing production since April, with a planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day in October, leading to a persistent oversupply in the market [1][2] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment is shifting from tight to loose, with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes and developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations influencing commodity markets [2] - OPEC+ production in August reached 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day from the previous month, contributing to the oversupply situation [2] - Geopolitical risk premiums are rising due to escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which may further impact oil prices [2] Group 4 - Future OPEC+ production policies remain uncertain; increased production could exacerbate supply pressures, while reduced production might alleviate oversupply [3] - Seasonal demand changes are expected as the summer peak electricity demand in Middle Eastern countries ends, leading to decreased crude oil power generation needs [3] - The impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on global economic recovery and subsequent oil demand will be crucial to monitor [3]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts an expansion of global crude oil supply surplus to 1.9 million barrels per day by 2026, up from a previous estimate of 1.7 million barrels per day, driven by increased supply from the Americas outpacing reductions from Russia and rising global demand [1] Group 1: Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs maintains its price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil at an average of $56 and $52 per barrel respectively for the next year [1] - The risk for price forecasts from 2025 to 2026 is considered to be two-sided but slightly tilted towards the upside [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October [1] - The primary reason for gradually lifting production cuts is attributed to low commercial inventories in developed countries [1] - While a complete removal of the remaining 1.65 million barrels per day is possible, Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ to flexibly pause increases in production quotas starting January next year, anticipating a significant rise in OECD commercial inventories in the fourth quarter [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil tankers and ports have raised geopolitical concerns, providing short - term support for oil prices. Trump's statement about sanctions on Russia if European countries stop importing Russian oil also boosts oil prices in the short term. However, the medium - to - long - term outlook remains pessimistic as institutional monthly reports warn of crude oil supply surplus in the second half of the year. Short - term oil prices are expected to trade in the 482 - 492 range, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US talks in Madrid are unlikely to achieve substantial breakthroughs. Ukraine attacked Russia's Primorsk port. The market is certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points this week, but investors have priced in a series of rate cuts until 2026. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On September 12, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.76 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.23 per barrel. The basis was $42.12 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 1.25 million barrels in the week ending September 5, against an expected decrease of 1.869 million barrels. EIA inventory increased by 3.939 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 1.04 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.365 million barrels in the week ending September 5. As of September 12, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels. Overall, the inventory situation is bearish [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is near the average, showing a neutral signal [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 9, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump said he is ready to impose major sanctions on Russia if all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil. He believes this can help end the war and save lives [5]. - The market is certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points this week. However, investors have priced in a series of rate cuts until 2026. The market expects the Fed to convey a dovish tone, but due to inflation and tariff impacts, Fed Chairman Powell and other officials may signal that investors are too radical, which could lead to asset price re - pricing [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil tankers and ports raise geopolitical concerns, and Trump's statement about sanctions on Russia provides short - term support for oil prices [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Institutional monthly reports have a weak outlook for the future, and the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariffs is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil are $66.99, $62.69, 479.2 yuan, and $68.59 respectively, with changes of $0.62 (0.93%), $0.32 (0.51%), - 9.50 yuan (- 1.94%), and - $2.34 (- 3.30%) compared to the previous values [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oils are $67.81, $62.69, $69.76, $63.72, and $69.64 respectively, with changes of $1.40 (2.11%), $0.32 (0.51%), - $1.12 (- 1.58%), - $1.11 (- 1.71%), and - $1.17 (- 1.65%) compared to the previous values [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data show fluctuations. API inventory increased by 1.25 million barrels in the week ending September 5, and EIA inventory increased by 3.939 million barrels in the same period [3][10][13]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 9, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 81,844, a decrease of 20,584 compared to the previous period [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of September 9, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 209,578, a decrease of 41,476 compared to the previous period [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating a "Cautiously Optimistic" investment rating [3][4]. Core Insights - OPEC's actual production increase is lower than expected, leading to an anticipated stable oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in the medium term [4][5]. - The upstream sector shows signs of recovery with oil prices rising, while drilling day rates remain stable [4][24]. - The refining sector is experiencing mixed results, with some product margins improving while others decline [4]. - The polyester sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply and demand dynamics improve [4][18]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $66.99 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 2.27%, while WTI futures rose by 1.33% to $62.69 per barrel [4][24]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.42 million barrels to 425 million barrels, remaining 4% lower than the five-year average [24][25]. - The number of active U.S. drilling rigs increased by 2 to 539, although this is a decrease of 51 rigs year-on-year [35][38]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $16.66 per barrel, down by $1.41 from the previous week [4]. - The price spread between gasoline and WTI crude oil fell to $18.30 per barrel, down by $2.48 from the previous week [4]. - The report suggests that refining profitability may improve as economic recovery progresses [4]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have declined, with the average price in East China at 4606.6 CNY per ton, down 2.02% week-on-week [4]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the polyester industry as new capacity additions taper off in the coming years [4][18]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [4][18]. - In the refining sector, it suggests monitoring quality companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [4][18]. - For upstream exploration and production, it highlights companies like CNOOC and China National Petroleum Corporation as having strong prospects [4][18].

Group 1: Oil Market Overview - The U.S. is proposing to impose tariffs of up to 100% on purchases of Russian oil to persuade President Putin to end military actions in Ukraine [1] - Geopolitical risks have decreased, but supply surplus expectations are becoming a key factor affecting oil prices [3][4] - OPEC+ is still in an expansion phase, planning to increase production in October, which may lead to a supply surplus [4][5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The end of the oil consumption peak season is expected to reduce demand by 1 to 3 million barrels per day compared to peak season [4] - U.S. commercial crude oil entered a stockpiling phase in late August, with significant increases in inventory reported [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil prices are more affected by global shipping demand, which is under pressure due to escalating global trade tensions [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The main trading logic in the energy and chemical sector remains focused on the oil supply surplus [5] - Oil, fuel, and low-sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to have further downside potential, influenced by U.S. shale oil production costs and OPEC+ production policies [5] - The macroeconomic environment may improve with the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, potentially boosting global economic growth and oil demand [5]