Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown signs of recovery following the support from "national team" funds, with indices and individual stocks rebounding after a period of decline [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - After a series of gains, A-shares experienced a slight decline at the end of the week, with many stocks and the Shanghai Composite Index showing an eight-day winning streak [2]. - The market has become more cautious regarding tariff information, leading to a shift from increased trading volume to a period of reduced trading activity [3]. - The rebound in the A-share market has been influenced by the "national team" funds, which have actively supported the market since April 7, particularly through significant purchases of major banks [5]. Group 2: Fund Flows - In the past five days, significant net inflows have been observed in various indices, with the banking index seeing a net inflow of 13.056 billion and the retail index 5.557 billion [6]. - The "national team" holds approximately 1.04 trillion yuan in ETFs, accounting for about 36% of the total A-share stock-type ETF market, with net inflows exceeding 200 billion yuan in recent weeks [7]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The first quarter GDP growth was reported at 5.4% year-on-year, with improvements in investment, consumption, and exports compared to the first two months of the year [9]. - The real estate sector has shown signs of recovery, with March data indicating a smaller decline in sales area and sales amount compared to previous months [11][13]. - Consumer sector performance has been strong, with companies like Dongpeng Beverage reporting significant revenue and profit growth in their first-quarter results [15]. Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - The government is expected to implement policies to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market, with potential measures including infrastructure investment and consumption subsidies [24][26]. - Analysts predict that monetary policy will also be adjusted, with expectations of a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates to improve liquidity [25][30]. - The market is closely monitoring the timing and scale of these policy measures, as they will significantly influence market expectations and economic stability [28][36].

作者：陶川 张云杰 钟渝梅 随着关税冲击后市场的逐步企稳，当前我们正进入从稳市场到稳经济的接续阶段。 稳市场的 " 先手棋 " 效果立竿见影，接下来做好稳经 济的接续同样重要， 这就需要储备政策尽早与市场 " 见面 " ，否则经济下行压力的显现将造成二次风险 。而关于如何稳经济，从近期国 家层面一系列会议的频繁召开中已初见端倪。 围绕总理所说的 " 有充足的储备政策工具 " ，我们认为后续政策端有如下线索： " 打铁还需自身硬 " ：关税乱局下，稳经济更需要构建 " 内循环 " 的明确指引。 在外部不确定性加剧的背景下，两会提出的 " 投资于人 " 含金量还在攀升 —— 短期来看内需修复是稳定经济基本面的关键一环，长期来看 " 内循环 " 的构建更是一项经济战略调整。 我们认为接 下来政策将向两个方向发力、促进内需的企稳： 一方面，既有政策进一步加力扩容。 比如 加力实施城中村改造、推进货币化安置 ，不仅可以加快形成更多实物工作量，同时还能惠及更 多居民。再如 去年颇有成效的"两新"、已在部分地区落地的生育津贴 ，都将成为今年财政促消费的重要路径。 增量的储备政策，可能包括再贷款、财政贴息、减税降费等。 20 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for proactive macro policies and increased counter-cyclical adjustments to support sustained economic growth and stability [1][2] - The Chinese economy shows significant vitality through various sectors such as film, tourism, and technology, indicating strong domestic economic potential [1] - The government aims for a GDP growth target of around 5%, reflecting confidence in its governance capabilities and future development potential [2] Group 2 - The focus is on deepening economic reforms and promoting a unified national market to enhance the business environment and support innovation [2] - The international perspective highlights the importance of open markets and resource sharing among nations to address global economic fragmentation and uncertainty [3] - China is committed to maintaining economic globalization, advocating for fair competition, and facilitating foreign enterprises' integration into the Chinese market [3]

我今晚要出去请朋友吃饭喝酒，所以下午就得提前写今天的内容，这会是14:40，大盘都还在交易呢。 今天早上的涨停开盘略震撼，但也不算意外，因为长假期间a50涨了13%，我们复盘补涨一个10%也不算很离谱。但遗憾的是大盘开盘即巅峰，马上就来 了一波酣畅淋漓的跳水，到上午10点半那会一度涨幅收窄至1.5%都不到。 从+10%到+1.5%，相当于盘中跌了8.5%，我们平时跌2%都觉得有些扛不住，现在一个小时跌8%那是非常震撼，当时有好几个群都炸了，开始恐慌行情是 不是完了，又要滚回粪坑了。 这里要插叙一下另一件事，就是今天早上发改委召开了一个新闻发布会，目的是介绍"系统落实一揽子增量政策扎实推动经济向上结构向优、发展态势持 续向好"有关情况，左边这句话我是粘贴复制过来的。 整个会开了80分钟，简单总结就是市场没有听到想听的内容，否则以目前媒体亢奋的情绪，早就头条大标题全网推送了。发布会上路透社的记者提问这次 刺激计划的总规模是多少，回答的官员打了5分钟太极，卸掉了提问。 最后媒体从发布会里 精挑细选，才提炼出 有2000亿的 项目会在本月落实，这 个数字显然 不会让目前的市场感到满意。 我说这个事不是说上午的下跌就是 ...