Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - Palm oil shows an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern due to multiple factors such as the digestion of inventory highs, positive domestic macro - sentiment, and potential supply reduction in the international market. However, there are uncertainties in production in July - August, and there may be a callback if inventory accumulates more than expected. There are opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels [2][5]. - Soybean oil is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. With good weather for US soybeans, it currently lacks its own effective drivers and mainly follows the trend of the oil and fat sector. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and shrink the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil in the future [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: After the slight increase in inventory in the June MPOB report, the negative impact was digested, and the market started to trade the de - stocking market in the second half of the year. With positive domestic macro - sentiment and a rebound in crude oil, the palm oil 09 contract rose 3.25% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: The expectation of improved Sino - US trade relations drove up US soybeans, which improved the weak reality of domestic soybean oil. But its fundamentals were still not as strong as palm oil. The soybean - palm oil spread shrank significantly, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 2.18% last week [1]. This Week's Views and Logic Palm Oil - Fundamental situation: The negative impact of the slight increase in June inventory has been digested, and there are no new effective negatives. The market is trading the de - stocking market in the second half of the year. The production increase rate in Malaysia from June - August is uncertain, and the 2025 production is estimated to be around 19.2 million tons. There is a risk that the production from July - August may be lower than the same period last year. The supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and Malaysia may still de - stock in July. In Indonesia, the price of palm oil and fruit bunches is high, and the trade sentiment is positive [2]. - Market factors: The US biodiesel policy is expected to reduce the supply of US soybean oil in the international market by at least 1.4 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, which may lead to a systemic increase in the international oil and fat market. Palm oil is sensitive to this, and bulls may pre - layout for the second - half - year market [2]. - Risk factors: If Malaysia and Indonesia maintain good yields from July - August, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure from August - September. However, if the crude oil price center rises, the downward space for palm oil will be limited. If the inventory accumulates more than expected from August - September, and there are negative factors such as the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and a decline in crude oil prices, palm oil may still have a callback. Also, be vigilant about the potential positive sentiment caused by lower - than - expected production and early de - stocking from July - August [2][5]. Soybean Oil - Fundamental situation: The weather speculation for US soybeans is currently weak. Good rainfall in the Midwest is conducive to the growth of US soybeans, and the yield outlook is positive. Domestic soybean oil is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with rapid inventory accumulation recently [4]. - Potential opportunities: If the purchase of US soybeans for the September shipment is not carried out, there may be an increase in forward crushing profit and Brazilian premium, which may benefit soybean oil. After the high - production period of palm oil in the third - quarter end, if there is a shortage of soybean imports due to Sino - US trade issues, there may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and shrink the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [4]. 盘面基本行情数据 (Basic Market Data of Futures Contracts) - Palm oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 8,682 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,972 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,644 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,964 yuan/ton, with a rise of 3.25%. The trading volume was 2,877,519 lots, a decrease of 176,462 lots, and the open interest was 557,055 lots, an increase of 44,257 lots [7]. - Soybean oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 7,986 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,176 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7,958 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,160 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.18%. The trading volume was 3,053,981 lots, a decrease of 10,092 lots, and the open interest was 558,184 lots, an increase of 54,927 lots [7]. 油脂基本面核心数据 (Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats) - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to recover in July, and the inventory may turn to decline. Indonesia's inventory is expected to remain low after the second quarter. The ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 were 621,770 tons, a 6.16% decrease compared to the same period last month [9][11]. - Price spread: The India - Malaysia 24 - degree FOB price spread has slightly declined. The POGO spread has rebounded significantly. The India palm oil import profit has stabilized and rebounded, and the India soybean - palm CNF spread has slightly increased [11][13]. - Import data: The cumulative import of palm oil in the EU in 2025 has decreased by 310,000 tons, and the cumulative import of four major oils and fats has decreased by 590,000 tons [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the oil market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. For the YP09 spread, partial profit - taking can be considered, and when it widens, shorting at high levels can be considered again. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [14]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2509 for soybean oil was 8042 with a rise of 30; for palm oil, it was 8722 with a rise of 14; for rapeseed oil, it was 9470 with a rise of 66. The spot basis and its changes varied by region for each oil [3]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 month - to - month spread for soybean oil was 42 with a fall of 4, for palm oil it was 18 with a rise of 2, and for rapeseed oil it was 72 with a rise of 4 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 680 with a rise of 16, the OI - Y spread was 1428 with a rise of 36, the OI - P spread was 748 with a rise of 52, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.70 with a rise of 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a negative profit of - 208 for the 8 - month ship - period, with a CNF price of 1045. The European rapeseed oil had a negative profit of - 796 for the 8 - month ship - period, with an FOB price of 1026 [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: As of the 28th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 104.9 million tons, palm oil was 56.3 million tons, and rapeseed oil was 70.6 million tons [3]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit increased by 17.95%, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and production increased by 17.06% [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 56.3 million tons, a 5.21% increase from the previous week. The import profit deficit narrowed. It is expected to fluctuate, and buying on dips can be considered [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 104.94 million tons, a 2.91% increase from the previous week. It is expected to fluctuate as it enters a phased inventory - building period [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 70.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil import profit deficit narrowed. It is expected to have large - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to ship - buying and policy changes [6][9]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, the oil market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [14]. - **Arbitrage**: For the YP09 spread, partial profit - taking can be considered, and when it widens, shorting at high levels can be considered again [14]. - **Options**: Wait and see [14]. 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various spreads and month - to - month spreads [13][16][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Report's Core View - Crude oil prices have reached a three - week high, and concerns about potential US sanctions on Russia may tighten global supply. Coupled with increased Chinese crude oil imports, the stronger crude oil prices drive the plant oils to fluctuate on the strong side [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,748.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +66 yuan (+0.76%); the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,994.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +8.00 yuan (+0.10%); the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,424.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -15.00 yuan (-0.16%) [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8,770.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of +20.00 yuan (+0.23%), and the spot basis was P09 + 22.00, with a daily change of -46.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,140.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -10.00 yuan/ton (-0.12%), and the spot basis was Y09 + 146.00, with a daily change of -18.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,550.00 yuan/ton, with a daily change of -20.00 yuan (-0.21%), and the spot basis was OI09 + 126.00, with a daily change of -5.00 yuan [1] Market News - India's palm oil imports in June surged 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, soybean oil imports decreased 9.8% to 359,504 tons, and sunflower oil imports increased 17.8% to 216,141 tons. The total vegetable oil imports in June were 1,549,825 tons, a 30.6% increase from May [2] - As of the end of June, China's broad money (M2) balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; narrow money (M1) balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The stock of social financing scale at the end of June 2025 was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [2] - As of July 11, 2025 (week 28), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 563,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 27,900 tons (5.21%) and a year - on - year increase of 47,300 tons (9.18%); the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 1,049,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,700 tons (2.91%) [2] Import Prices - Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) C&F price was 573 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) C&F price was 563 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) C&F price was 1,137 US dollars/ton, up 28 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price was 1,087 US dollars/ton, up 18 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import rapeseed oil C&F quotes: Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1,040 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1,020 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - US Gulf soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 449 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; US West soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 444 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; Brazilian soybeans (August shipment) C&F price was 463 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Import soybean premium quotes: Mexican Gulf (August shipment) was 220 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; US West Coast (August shipment) was 193 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; Brazilian ports (August shipment) was 253 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - The MPOB report was slightly bearish as the unexpected decline in exports in June exceeded the decrease in production and the increase in domestic consumption, causing the palm oil inventory to rise for the fourth consecutive month. The market did not expect such a significant drop in exports, with a 10.52% month - on - month decline in June. However, due to Malaysia's reduction in export tariffs in July, exports may increase, and strong exports limit the market decline. The upward space for palm oil is limited, and short - selling opportunities near the resistance level are worth attention [8]. - The market is waiting to see if the visit of the Australian Prime Minister to China will involve changes in rapeseed trade policies. For soybean oil, the supply is abundant and it is the off - season for demand. The 09 spread between soybean oil and palm oil has dropped significantly to a technically oversold level and may recover [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market prices: Dongguan rapeseed oil traders' quotes are Dongguan triple - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 60 and first - pressed rapeseed oil 09 + 240. In the East China market, the basis price of first - grade soybean oil is spot basis 09 + 150, Y2509 + 220 from July to September, and Y2601 + 300 from October to January. In South China, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil is P09 + 150 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7]. - Oil and fat comments: The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June was 2.0306 million tons, an increase of 47,800 tons from May, a 2.41% month - on - month increase. The report was slightly bearish. Due to the reduction of export tariffs in July, exports may increase. AmSpec data showed a 12% month - on - month increase in palm oil exports from July 1 - 10. The upward space for palm oil is limited. The market is waiting for news on rapeseed trade policies. Soybean oil supply is loose, and the 09 spread between soybean oil and palm oil may recover [8]. 2. Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production in June 2025 was 1.6923 million tons, a decrease of 79,300 tons from May, a 4.48% month - on - month decline. Imports were 70,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from May, a 1.51% month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.2594 million tons, a decrease of 148,100 tons from May, a 10.52% month - on - month decline. The end - of - month inventory was 2.0306 million tons, an increase of 47,800 tons from May, a 2.41% month - on - month increase [9]. - South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 51.5 bushels per acre. If the weather remains favorable, the yield may be further adjusted upwards [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot price of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, palm oil basis changes, soybean oil basis changes, rapeseed oil basis changes, P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, US dollar to Malaysian ringgit exchange rate, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][22][24][29][30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The significant increase in Brazilian soybean exports led to a loose domestic soybean supply. Coupled with the weak MPOB export data and the accumulation of Malaysian palm oil inventory, the oil prices were under pressure and oscillated [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,638.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -40 yuan and a decline of -0.46% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract yesterday was 7,944.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +24.00 yuan and an increase of +0.30% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract yesterday was 9,468.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -42.00 yuan and a decline of -0.44% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,720.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -10.00 yuan and a decline of -0.11%. The spot basis was P09 + 82.00, with a环比 change of +30.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,120.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +20.00 yuan/ton and an increase of +0.25%. The spot basis was Y09 + 176.00, with a环比 change of -4.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,600.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -40.00 yuan and a decline of -0.41%. The spot basis was OI09 + 132.00, with a环比 change of +2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Brazilian Exports - ANEC expects Brazilian soybean exports in July to reach 11.93 million tons, a 24.27% increase from 9.6 million tons in the same period last year - It expects soybean meal exports to be 2.19 million tons, an 8.96% increase from 2.01 million tons last year - It expects corn exports to be 4.34 million tons, a 7.66% decrease from 4.7 million tons last year [2] US Drought Report - As of the week ending July 8, about 9% of US soybean growing areas were affected by drought, up from 8% the previous week and the same as last year - About 12% of US corn growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and up from 7% last year - About 3% of US cotton growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and down from 22% last year [2] Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast - The 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach 169.4879 million tons, a 14.7% increase of 21.7666 million tons year-on-year and a 0.1% decrease of 0.1179 million tons环比 - The sown area is expected to reach 47.6149 million hectares, a 3.2% increase of 1.4653 million hectares year-on-year and a decrease of 0.0049 million hectares环比 - The yield per unit area is expected to be 3.56 tons per hectare, an 11.2% increase of 358.638 kg per hectare year-on-year and a 0.1% decrease of 2.108 kg per hectare环比 [2] MPOB Monthly Report - Malaysian palm oil exports in June were 1,259,354 tons, a 10.52% decrease环比 - Production was 1,692,310 tons, a 4.48% decrease环比 - Imports were 70,015 tons, a 1.51% increase环比 - Inventory was 2,030,580 tons, a 2.41% increase环比 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The market for each type of oil has its own supply - demand characteristics, which will affect their price trends [6][7][11][13]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: - For soybean oil, the 2509 closing price was 7944, up 24. In different regions, spot prices varied, and basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 210, 200, and 170 respectively, with changes of - 10, - 30, and 10 [4]. - For palm oil, the 2509 closing price was 8638, down 40. Spot prices in different regions also differed, and basis in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Guangzhou were 60, 150, and 200 respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and - 20 [4]. - For rapeseed oil, the 2509 closing price was 9468, down 42. Spot prices and basis in different regions were reported, such as a basis of 130 in Zhangjiagang and 60 in Guangdong with no change [4]. - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: - The 9 - 1 monthly spread of soybean oil was 22, up 18; for palm oil, it was 22, down 10; for rapeseed oil, it was 56, down 4 [4]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventory (Week 27, 2025)**: - Soybean oil inventory was 102.0 (previous week: 95.5), palm oil was 53.8 (previous week: 53.7), and rapeseed oil was 71.9 (previous week data not shown in this part) [8]. Second Part: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market (Palm Oil)**: - In June 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2030580 tons, up 2.41% month - on - month; production was 1692310 tons, down 4.48% month - on - month; exports were 1259354 tons, down 10.52% month - on - month [6]. - **Domestic Market**: - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB June report had a neutral - to - bearish impact. As of July 4, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 53.81 tons, up 0.07 tons (0.13%) from the previous week. The import profit inversion narrowed, and the market was expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]. - **Soybean Oil**: The futures price rose slightly. The actual soybean crushing volume was 233.22 tons, with an operating rate of 65.56%. As of July 4, 2025, the national key - area commercial inventory was 101.97 tons, up 6.45 tons (6.75%) from the previous week. The market was expected to remain volatile [7]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The futures price fell slightly. The coastal rapeseed crushing volume last week was 4.7 tons, with an operating rate of 12.53%. As of July 4, 2025, the coastal inventory was 71.9 tons, down 2.8 tons from the previous week. The import profit inversion narrowed, and the market was expected to have large - range fluctuations [11]. Third Part: Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [13]. - **Arbitrage**: Consider widening the P9 - 1 and P1 - 5 spreads on pullbacks [14]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [15]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including those showing the basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads over different time periods, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [18][21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The weather in the US soybean producing areas remains favorable, with temperatures in July being temporarily lower and sufficient precipitation. Multiple institutions expect the US soybean production to continue rising, leading to significant supply pressure [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8,678.00 yuan/ton yesterday, a环比 increase of 34 yuan or 0.39%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7,920.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 26.00 yuan or 0.33%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,510.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 88.00 yuan or 0.92% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,730.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 110.00 yuan or 1.28%, with a spot basis of P09 + 52.00, a环比 increase of 76.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,100.00 yuan/ton, a环比 increase of 10.00 yuan/ton or 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 180.00, a环比 increase of 36.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,640.00 yuan/ton, a环比 decrease of 90.00 yuan or 0.92%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 130.00, a环比 decrease of 2.00 yuan [1] Market News - BMI predicts that after a 1.6% year - on - year decline in the 2024/25 season, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to partially recover in the 2025/26 season, with a year - on - year increase of 0.5% to 19.5 million tons. However, domestic consumption in Malaysia in the 2025/26 season is expected to drop 2% from 39 million tons in the 2024/25 season to 38 million tons. StoneX analysts believe that the production outlook for US soybeans continues to improve due to good weather. The C&F prices of Canadian rapeseed, Argentine soybean oil, etc., have different price adjustments. Import soybean premium quotes also show some changes [2] Group 4: Charts Information - The report includes 30 charts related to the prices, production, inventory, and trading volume of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the US raising tariffs on goods from 14 countries may harm US crop export demand, and good weather in US soybean - growing areas causes CBOT soybeans to run under pressure. The expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June, along with the bullish expectation of the MPOB report and the depreciation of the Malaysian ringgit, support the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil futures [5]. - Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, and the off - season demand will lead to further inventory accumulation. With weakened import cost support, soybean oil is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term. The arrival speed of imported palm oil has accelerated, and domestic prices follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, the decline in domestic inventory and uncertainties in subsequent imports still support prices, and rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macroeconomic and Industry News - As of July 6, the US soybean emergence rate was 96%, higher than the previous week's 94% but lower than the historical average of 98%. The soybean good - to - excellent rate was 66%, unchanged from the previous week and in line with analysts' expectations [2]. - From June 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.69%, compared with a 3.07% month - on - month increase in May [2]. - Due to the US plan to impose a 32% tariff on Indonesian goods, Indonesian palm oil exports to the US may decline significantly. If the tariff policy is implemented, Indonesian palm oil exports to the US may decrease by 15% - 20% [2]. - Analysts predict that the US 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4.334 billion bushels, with a forecast range of 4.33 - 4.34 billion bushels, lower than the USDA's June estimate of 4.34 billion bushels [2]. 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - International: The US tariff increase may harm US crop exports, and good weather in US soybean - growing areas pressures CBOT soybeans. The expected decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of June and other factors support the rise of Malaysian palm oil futures [5]. - Domestic: Soybean oil is expected to be weakly volatile, palm oil prices follow the external market, and rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate narrowly [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption and reduces available supply, but the international biodiesel profit is low, and demand is weak. The domestic tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have a macro - level impact on the market [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 162 tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 149 tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 183 tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8194, with a basis of 248, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 88 tons, an increase of 2 tons from the previous 86 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract are decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7700 - 8100 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8828, with a basis of 184, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 38 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from the previous value of 39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1 ton and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract are increasing [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8450 - 8850 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9745, with a basis of 147, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 65 tons, an increase of 2 tons from the previous value of 63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract are decreasing [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 油脂日报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 油脂日报 第一部分 数据分析 | 2025/7/7 | | --- | | 银河期货油脂日报 | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2509收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 7894 | (50) | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | 广东 | | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8114 | | | 8094 | | 8044 | 220 | | 0 | 200 | 0 | 150 | -10 | | 棕榈油 | 8466 | (6) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | 广州 | | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8536 | | | | 8626 | 8706 | ...