每经AI快讯，周一（12月29日），3年期美债收益率跌2.52个基点，报3.502%；5年期美债收益率跌3.11 个基点，报3.663%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline on Monday, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.1121% [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 1.56 basis points [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 1.63 basis points, reaching 3.4627% [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 1.21 basis points, settling at 4.8019% [1]

CONTENTS 01 国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 周度重点宏观逻辑追踪及资产观点 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品周度表现 宏观数据全息图及基本面高频数据 • 海外权益 – 波动率与风险情绪指标 2 • 周度海外宏观要点：宏观清淡平稳搭台，贵金 属、有色爆发 二为交割制度 • FICC-人民币：人民币破七，贸易账为基石，利 差和结汇配合 • FICC-人民币：政策态度较为明确，短期升值空 间或有限 • 周度 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the short-term appreciation of the Chinese yuan and its underlying causes, emphasizing that this is a passive response to external factors rather than a reflection of China's economic strength [2] Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The recent appreciation of the yuan is attributed to the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has weakened the US dollar [2] - The yuan's appreciation is not a result of internal economic strength but rather a reaction to external monetary policy changes [2] - In the medium to long term, the trend is expected to be depreciation due to factors such as high M2 money supply and declining corporate profit margins [2] Group 2: Comparative Returns - The interest rate for one-year US dollar deposits is between 2.8% and 3.0%, while the rate for one-year yuan deposits is only 1.45% [2] - The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds is 4.79%, compared to 2.50% for Chinese government bonds, indicating a significant yield differential [2] - The preference for converting yuan to dollars is driven by the pursuit of higher returns rather than a preference for the dollar itself [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of position control in trading, suggesting that managing positions effectively can lead to stable profits and minimize losses during market fluctuations [1] - Recent trends indicate that international gold prices have surged over 4% in the past four trading days, reaching a new historical high, driven by declining attractiveness of alternative assets like U.S. Treasuries and ongoing market uncertainty [2][3] - The market is currently pricing in an 82.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in its January 2026 meeting, with significant shifts expected in the probabilities for the March 2026 meeting, reflecting ongoing uncertainty regarding monetary policy [2] Group 2 - Gold remains a highly recognized safe-haven asset, with its demand closely linked to market confidence indicators, such as the CNN Fear and Greed Index, which has recently shown a recovery but is now stabilizing at a neutral level [3] - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields, which have dropped from 4.2% to around 4.1%, is expected to reduce the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets, potentially driving more capital towards gold as a safe-haven investment [3] - Technical analysis of gold indicates a strong bullish structure, with prices supported above key levels, suggesting that traders should wait for pullbacks to enter long positions rather than chasing highs [4][6]

每经AI快讯，周五(12月26日)，美债收益率多数下跌，2年期美债收益率跌2.65个基点报3.479%，3年期 美债收益率跌2.81个基点报3.530%，5年期美债收益率跌2.24个基点报3.696%。 ...

周五，交易员结束圣诞节假期返市，为包含强劲美国经济数据的一周画上句号，美债收益率基本持平。 基准10年期美国国债收益率下跌不到1个基点，报4.132%。2年期国债收益率下跌1个基点，报3.497%。 1个基点等于0.01%。收益率与价格呈反向变动。 交易员继续评估最新经济数据。 美国劳工部周三报告称，截至12月20日当周的初请失业金人数为21.4万人，低于预期，并较前一周减少 1万人。 美国商务部周二还报告称，美国经济在第一季度增长了4.3%，为该国两年来最快的扩张速度。 AmeriVet Securities美国利率策略主管格雷戈里·法拉内洛（Gregory Faranello）本周早些时候写道："经 济状况良好。在通胀和增长以这种速度运行的情况下，不可能指望10年期收益率大幅走低。" 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 周五，交易员结束圣诞节假期返市，为包含强劲美国经济数据的一周画上句号，美债收益率基本持平。 美国商务部周二还报告称，美国经济在第一季度增长了4.3%，为该国两年来最快的扩张速度。 AmeriVet Securities美国利率策略主管格雷戈里·法拉内洛（Gregory Faranello）本周早些 ...

Group 1 - Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced the initial budget for the fiscal year 2026, totaling 122.3 trillion yen, a 6.3% increase year-on-year, setting a new historical record [1][4] - To cover the fiscal gap, the government plans to issue approximately 29.6 trillion yen in government bonds [1][4] - The Bank of Japan's Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that there is still room for interest rate hikes as confidence in achieving sustainable inflation targets grows [1][4] Group 2 - The Japanese government raised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2025 from 0.7% to 1.1% and expects further growth to 1.3% in fiscal year 2026, reflecting optimism about economic recovery [1][4] - The Bank of Korea stated in its 2026 monetary policy statement that it does not rule out further interest rate cuts while emphasizing the need to monitor potential threats to financial stability from the depreciation of the Korean won and rising housing prices [1][4] - The Central Bank of Egypt significantly cut its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points, adjusting overnight loan and deposit rates to 21% and 20% respectively, in response to the easing of high inflation pressures [1][4]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周三（12月24日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌2.45个基点报3.506%，3年 期美债收益率跌2.23个基点报3.558%，5年期美债收益率跌1.92个基点报3.718%，10年期美债收益率跌 2.73个基点报4.136%，30年期美债收益率跌2.94个基点报4.795%。 ...

周一纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨1.76个基点，报4.1647%。两年期美债收益率涨1.72个基点， 报3.5025%，北京时间16:00以来持续走高，02:24（美国财政部两年期美债拍卖结果出炉后）刷新日高 至3.5109%；30年期美债收益率涨1.53个基点，报4.8395%。2/10年期美债收益率利差跌0.340个基点，报 +65.821个基点。10年期通胀保值国债（TIPS）收益率涨2.34个基点，至1.9100%；两年期TIPS收益率涨 0.80个基点，至1.1655%；30年期TIPS收益率涨2.19个基点，至2.6325%。 (本文来自第一财经) ...