Group 1: Gold Market Insights - On December 31, U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight increase, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.127% and the 2-year yield at 3.459% [1][5] - Spot gold rebounded from a previous day's sharp decline, reaching a high of $4400 per ounce before closing up 0.16% at $4338.89 per ounce [1][5] - Spot silver recovered significantly after experiencing its largest single-day drop in over five years, touching $78 during the day and closing up 5.73% at $76.27 per ounce [1][5] Group 2: Oil Market Insights - WTI crude oil fluctuated around the $58 mark, closing up 0.21% at $57.87 per barrel, while Brent crude oil closed up 0.16% at $61.32 per barrel [1][5] - The oil market remains in a low-level consolidation phase, with WTI opening at $57.8 per barrel, reaching a high of $58.53 before closing at $58.03 [3][7] - The market is currently testing support levels, with key resistance identified between $58.2 and $59.0, and support levels between $57.6 and $57.0 [7][8]

每经AI快讯，周二（12月30日），美债收益率涨跌不一，3年期美债收益率涨0.28个基点报3.502%，5年 期美债收益率涨1.20个基点报3.677%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for President Trump to dismiss current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the implications this could have on the independence of the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy direction [3][4][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Independence - Trump has expressed ongoing interest in potentially firing Powell, citing "serious incompetence" related to a Federal Reserve overhaul, and has indicated he has a preferred successor in mind, to be announced in January [4][5]. - The current market has not reacted strongly to threats against the Federal Reserve's independence, but investors are preparing for a more divided and potentially weaker Federal Reserve under new leadership [8][9]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is composed of 12 members, and Trump currently has appointed three members, with potential opportunities to influence more appointments in the future [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Concerns have been raised among bond investors regarding the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, fearing it could lead to aggressive rate cuts that might destabilize the market and increase inflation risks [5][10]. - The article notes that the sensitivity of central banks to economic shocks has increased, potentially leading to conflicts between monetary and fiscal policies, which could further complicate the economic landscape [6][11]. - Despite political pressures, some investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates again early next year, which could support stock market performance [11].

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 黄金原油资讯—— 12月30日，美债收益率普跌，基准的10年期美债收益率最终收报4.111%，对美联储政策利率敏感的2年 期美债收益率收报3.438%。现货黄金冲高回落，日内重挫200美元，最终收跌4.43%，报4331.98美元/盎 司；现货白银上演过山车行情，早盘将历史高位刷新至83美元/盎司以上，随后持续下挫，日内跌幅一 度扩大至10%，最终收跌8.87%，报72.14美元/盎司。由于美国主导的结束俄乌和谈仍存在重大障碍，且 中东地区地缘扰动不断，国际原油有所反弹。WTI原油一度站上58关口，最终收涨1.55%，报57.75美元/ 桶；布伦特原油最终收涨1.27%，报61.22美元/桶。 黄金最新行情走势—— 昨日黄金市场早盘小幅高开在4536.5美元/盎司，后行情早盘先拉升给出4551.2的历史高点附近后行情出 现获利了结过程，盘中跌破多重支撑后行情加速回落，日渐最低给到了日渐级别布林中轨4300.3美元/ 盎司，故意整理，日线最终收线在了4331.4美元/盎司，后，日线以一根下影线长于上影线的大阴线收 线，而这样的形态收尾后，日线调整一步到位，今日重点关注黄金 ...

美国总统特朗普当地时间29日再次表示，还是有可能解雇现任美联储主席鲍威尔，并重申已有下一任美联储主席 人选，将在1月某个时候宣布。 当前，市场并未对美联储独立性受威胁进行交易，但投资者确实预计，美联储将迎来内部分歧更加显著、主席更 加弱势以及更容易发生激进变革的时期。 宏利投资管理（Manulife Investment Management）的美国利率交易主管洛里齐奥（Michael Lorizio）称："如果新 任美联储主席在沟通方式上深思熟虑，不仅有助于他们将共识引向其观点，而且还能创造稳定，避免做出任何可 能损害美联储对经济的影响力的举动。" 仍威胁解雇鲍威尔 特朗普29日表示，他仍然在考虑就鲍威尔在美联储一项翻修工程中的"严重无能"，对后者提起诉讼。特朗普称， 鲍威尔"应该立即辞职"，并且"我很想解雇他"。今年7月，鲍威尔险些被特朗普罢免，但美国市场立即作出负面反 应，市场人士抨击这可能威胁美联储的独立性，从而扰乱市场。这番警告令特朗普态度转变。但此次，特朗普表 示，"也许我仍然可能会（这么做）。" 鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，但他在美联储理事会的任期需要到2028年才正式到期。鲍威尔尚未就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The widening yield spread between short-term and long-term U.S. Treasury bonds indicates growing investor concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve amid potential leadership changes and political pressures from President Trump [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence Concerns - Investors are preparing for a more divided Federal Reserve with a potentially weaker chairperson, as internal disagreements are expected to become more pronounced [2][7]. - The market has not yet reacted significantly to threats against the Fed's independence, but there is an anticipation of more aggressive changes in monetary policy [2][10]. - The potential for Trump to appoint new members to the Federal Reserve Board could shift the balance of power within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), raising concerns about the Fed's ability to operate independently [8][9]. Group 2: Leadership Speculation - Trump has indicated he is still considering firing current Fed Chair Powell, citing "serious incompetence" in a recent Fed project, and has a preferred successor in mind, to be announced in January [4][5]. - Candidates for the next Fed chair include Kevin Hassett, Kevin Walsh, Christopher Waller, and Michelle Bowman, with Hassett being viewed as a frontrunner [5][6]. - Trump's inconsistent statements regarding his preferred candidates suggest uncertainty in the decision-making process, which could impact market perceptions of the Fed's future direction [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Concerns about the Fed's independence and potential leadership changes have led to an increase in the yield spread between short-term and long-term Treasuries, reflecting investor anxiety [10]. - The possibility of a more divided Fed could lead to increased volatility in the bond market, as differing opinions among FOMC members may create uncertainty in interest rate decisions [9]. - Despite political pressures, some investors expect the Fed may lower interest rates again in early 2024, which could support stock market performance [11].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. **Model Name**: Dividend Style Timing Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model is designed to time the dividend style by aggregating multiple factors that influence the performance of dividend-related stocks. The comprehensive factor value is used to determine the timing signal for the dividend style[6]. **Model Construction Process**: - The model aggregates several sub-factors, including U.S. Treasury yields, the spread between dividend yield and Chinese bond yields, and industry sentiment indicators. - The comprehensive factor value is calculated as a weighted sum of these sub-factors. - The model outputs a signal based on whether the comprehensive factor value is greater than or less than zero. A positive value indicates a favorable timing signal, while a negative value suggests an unfavorable signal[6][7]. **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to timing the dividend style, but its effectiveness depends on the stability and predictive power of the underlying factors[6][7]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. **Dividend Style Timing Model**: - Comprehensive factor value for the week of 2025.12.22 to 2025.12.26: -0.55 - Comprehensive factor value for the previous week (2025.12.15 to 2025.12.19): -0.72 - The model's comprehensive factor value showed improvement but remained below zero, indicating no positive timing signal[6][7]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name**: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor reflects the impact of U.S. Treasury yields on dividend style performance. A decline in yields is generally considered supportive of dividend stocks[7]. **Factor Construction Process**: The factor value is derived from the weekly change in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. A negative value indicates a decline in yields, which is expected to positively influence the dividend style[11]. 2. **Factor Name**: Spread Between Dividend Yield and 10-Year Chinese Bond Yield **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the relative attractiveness of dividend yields compared to risk-free bond yields in China. A wider spread is considered favorable for dividend stocks[7]. **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor value is calculated as the difference between the dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index and the 10-year Chinese bond yield. - A positive value indicates that dividend yields are higher than bond yields, which is supportive of the dividend style[11]. 3. **Factor Name**: Industry Sentiment Indicator **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor captures the overall sentiment in the industry, which can influence the performance of dividend stocks. Positive sentiment is expected to support the dividend style[7]. **Factor Construction Process**: The factor value is derived from analysts' assessments of industry conditions. A higher value indicates stronger sentiment, which is favorable for dividend stocks[11]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. **U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield**: - Factor value on 2025.12.26: -0.91 - Factor value on 2025.12.19: -1.08 - Factor value on 2025.11.30: -1.32[11] 2. **Spread Between Dividend Yield and 10-Year Chinese Bond Yield**: - Factor value on 2025.12.26: 0.72 - Factor value on 2025.12.19: 0.32 - Factor value on 2025.11.30: -0.32[11] 3. **Industry Sentiment Indicator**: - Factor value on 2025.12.26: 1.65 - Factor value on 2025.12.19: 1.77 - Factor value on 2025.11.30: 1.97[11]

每经AI快讯，周一（12月29日），3年期美债收益率跌2.52个基点，报3.502%；5年期美债收益率跌3.11 个基点，报3.663%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline on Monday, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.1121% [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 1.56 basis points [1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 1.63 basis points, reaching 3.4627% [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 1.21 basis points, settling at 4.8019% [1]

CONTENTS 01 国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 周度重点宏观逻辑追踪及资产观点 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品周度表现 宏观数据全息图及基本面高频数据 • 海外权益 – 波动率与风险情绪指标 2 • 周度海外宏观要点：宏观清淡平稳搭台，贵金 属、有色爆发 二为交割制度 • FICC-人民币：人民币破七，贸易账为基石，利 差和结汇配合 • FICC-人民币：政策态度较为明确，短期升值空 间或有限 • 周度 ...