金十数据7月31日讯，债券市场正在将鲍威尔的言论转化为美国国债的抛售行为。自美国东部时间下午2 点30分他开始回答记者提问以来，收益率一直在上升，这与此前美联储在下午2点做出维持利率不变的 分歧决定后出现的收益率下跌形成了鲜明对比。鲍威尔避免就9月会议给出明确的指导，只是表示即将 公布的数据将指导货币政策。市场本来预计美联储会在9月会议上降息。受此影响，美国10年期收益率 从鲍威尔登台时的4.342%上升至4.378%。 鲍威尔避免给出9月利率指引，美债收益率上涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the labor market has not weakened, leading to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [1] Group 1 - The statement from Powell suggests confidence in the resilience of the labor market, which may influence monetary policy decisions [1] - The rise in U.S. Treasury yields reflects market reactions to Powell's comments, indicating expectations of sustained economic strength [1]

Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] 2. Core Views - Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, U.S. Treasury yields showed signs of decline. The market is waiting for the meeting's outcome. If the Fed unexpectedly cuts interest rates or if Fed Chair Powell is removed, it will be beneficial for the gold price. The silver price has reached a record high, but the photovoltaic sector's weakness may suppress it in the future [1][8][9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Conditions - **Futures**: On July 29, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract closed at 771.44 yuan/gram, down 0.43% from the previous trading day. The Shanghai silver futures main contract closed at 9,195 yuan/kg, down 0.18% from the previous trading day [2] - **U.S. Treasury Bonds**: On July 29, 2025, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield was 4.42%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The 10-2 year spread was 0.48%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] 3.2 Position and Volume Changes - **Last Trading Day's Volume**: The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 275,105 lots, down 16.66% from the previous trading day. The total trading volume of Shanghai silver contracts was 738,850 lots, down 52.79% from the previous trading day [4] - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 956.23 tons from the previous trading day, while the silver ETF holdings increased by 14.13 tons to 15,173.92 tons [5] 3.3 Arbitrage Tracking - **Spot-Futures Spread**: On July 29, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -1.96 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -680.01 yuan/kg [6] - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 83.90, down 0.25% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 86.39, up 0.30% from the previous trading day [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Shanghai Gold Exchange**: On July 29, 2025, the trading volume of gold was 37,834 kg, up 9.01% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 461,672 kg, down 27.55% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 14,762 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 6,900 kg [7]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-30 美债收益率显著回落提振市场，静待议 息会议指引 议息会议前⼣市场交投相对清淡，美元指数短线强势反弹，但贵⾦属对此 反应甚微，隔夜美国公布的职位空缺数低于预期，美债收益率显著⾛低， 对市场形成提振。后续来看，经贸不确定性短期下降，关税逐渐成为慢变 量，关注美国基本⾯及降息预期变化，本周美国⾮农数据及7⽉降息会议 上美联储的表达较为重要。 重点资讯： 1）美国6月JOLTs职位空缺743.7万人，预期750万人，前值由776.9万 人修正为771.2万人。 2）美国总统特朗普发布信函称将自8月1日起对巴西产品征收50%的关 税。对于大量进口巴西咖啡豆的美国咖啡行业来说，这一关税政策给 他们造成严重冲击。 3）IMF将全球经济情况描述为"在持续的不确定性中，保持脆弱的韧 性"。IMF预计2025年全球经济增长率为3.0%，2026年为3. 1%。此外，IMF预计全球整体通胀率将在2025年降至4.2%，在2026年 降至3.6%。IMF将中国2025年的增长率较4月WEO预期上调了0.8个百分 点，达到4.8%。IMF ...

每经AI快讯，周二（7月29日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌5.66个基点报3.867%，3年 期美债收益率跌5.63个基点报3.818%，5年期美债收益率跌6.85个基点报3.898%，10年期美债收益率跌 8.75个基点报4.322%，30年期美债收益率跌10.22个基点报4.856%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. Treasury yields have declined across various maturities, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment or market conditions [1] Group 2 - The 30-year Treasury yield decreased by 10 basis points to 4.86% [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 9 basis points to 4.32% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield dropped by 5 basis points to 3.88% [1]

三年期美债收益率跌5.36个基点，五年期没在收益率跌6.34个基点，七年期没知识收益率跌7.89个基 点。 2/10年期美债收益率利差跌2.662个基点，报+45.123个基点。 周二（7月29日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率跌7.95个基点，报4.3303%，日内至北京时间17:25 持续窄幅震荡于4.42%下方，随后开始下跌，北京时间01:02跌至4.3223%刷新日低。 两年期美债收益率跌5.05个基点，报3.8750%，16:54短暂地微幅转涨至3.9262%刷新日高，随后持续走 低。 20年期美债收益率跌9.13个基点，30年期美债收益率跌9.00个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.42%, while the 2-year yield remained stable at 3.91%, resulting in a widening of the yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year bonds by 2 basis points to 51 basis points [1] - The European Union announced a temporary trade agreement, reducing tariffs on U.S. imports to 15%, indicating a de-escalation in trade tensions [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, with a 97% probability of no change according to futures markets [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury Department projected a significant increase in federal borrowing for the third quarter, raising expectations to $1.01 trillion, nearly double the previous estimate from April [3] - Multiple economic data releases are anticipated this week, including job vacancy surveys and non-farm payroll reports, which will provide insights into the impact of tariffs on inflation [3] - In the overseas bond market, European bonds showed little volatility, with German government bonds trending upward while French bonds mostly declined [4]

来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经北京7月29日电 10年期美债收益率周一（28日）小幅走高，因投资者预期美国联邦储备理事会（美联储，fed）将在周三晚些时 候结束为期两天的政策会议后公布利率决定，以及将揭示关税对经济影响的关键通胀数据。 据美国财政部数据，截至当天收盘，2年期美债收益率持平于上周五的3.91%，10年期美债收益率上升2BPs至4.42%，30年期美债收益率 攀升4BPs至4.96%。2年期美债 与10年期美债收益率小幅走阔2BPs至51BPs。 此外，美联储偏爱的通胀指标，个人消费支出指数将于周四公布，届时将揭示关税对通胀的影响。据FactSet预计，6月份的报告将显 示，通胀率同比将从2.3%升至2.4%，环比将从0.14%升至0.31%。 据外媒报道，美联储可能会在本周政策会议上维持利率不变，但可能会有一位到两位美联储理事表达反对意见，支持降息。不过大多数 美联储政策制定者仍然担心，特朗普关税可能会抵消通胀率回归央行2%目标位的进展，目前对这点的担忧超过了对劳动力市场的担忧。 特朗普此前再次呼吁美联储降息，称这将有助于推动美国经济。 美国财政部周一（7月27日）宣布将三季度（7月至9月）联邦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2.40 basis points, reaching 4.4118%, while European stocks opened significantly lower before rebounding after a few hours of volatility [1] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2.40 basis points to 4.4118% [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield increased by 0.45 basis points to 3.9277% [1] - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields widened by 2.162 basis points, now at +48.198 basis points [1] Group 2: European Market Reaction - European stocks opened significantly lower, hitting a daily low of 4.4660% [1] - After approximately three hours of fluctuations, European stocks experienced a rebound [1]