二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 17 日 报告导读： ◼ 摘要： 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 稳而不发：透视三季度货币政策执行报告 | 唐立 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 | Tangli026575@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 王笑 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 | Wangxiao019787@gtjas.com | （正文） 1. 四季度宏观数据低迷延续 10 月各项宏观数据公布，整体数据趋势呈现除通胀外全线增速回落的趋势。CPI 微幅转正，PPI 跌幅 收窄。其余数据增速均回落。全年保"5"的目标下，政策预期 mao dian 普遍在明年两会 权益市场在美国风险偏好传导以及内需政策预期博弈下回调震荡。债市短端较为稳固，超长端随风险 偏好波动较大。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 ◼ 央行三季度货币政策执行报告的核心词是"结构性"与"延续"。 ◼ 大水漫灌式降息降准难出现，数量、价格、结构多元工具精细化调控，维稳货币边际宽松。 ◼ 删除"防范资金空 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Currently, various interest rate parity relationships are generally within a reasonable range, which provides further room for subsequent monetary easing. With the decline of deposit rates, it will further broaden the space for subsequent monetary policy easing to drive down the social financing cost [4][29]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comparison between Central Bank Interest Rates and Market Interest Rates - At the beginning of this year, the market interest rate deviated significantly from the policy rate, but it has now returned to the normal level. The DR007 rate has gradually fallen back to near the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate [1][9]. - In a smooth interest rate transmission mechanism, short - term money market interest rates revolve around the policy rate center and affect the overall market interest rate level through the financial system [1][9]. Comparison between Commercial Banks' Asset - side and Liability - side Interest Rates - Deposit rates and lending rates have been declining in tandem, which is expected to open up more policy operation space. Before 2024, the trends of deposit and lending rates diverged, but after 2024, the deposit rate turned downward, and the pressure on the narrowing net interest margin has been relieved to some extent [2][12]. Comparison of Yields of Different Types of Assets - **Long - term**: The comprehensive loan yield after deducting non - performing loans and taxes is highly consistent with the 5 - year Treasury bond yield. In the second quarter of this year, the weighted average loan interest rate was 3.29%, and the calculated weighted average loan yield was 1.52%, close to the 1.54% average yield of 5 - year Treasury bonds in the same period. Similar results can be obtained for mortgage loans [2][14]. - **Short - term**: The yield trends of different assets at the short - end are similar, with small spreads, indicating a stable parity relationship [2][17]. Comparison of Interest Rates of Different Terms The previously abnormal yield curve has now returned to a normal state. The 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond spread is currently around 40bps, which is basically at a normal historical level [3][20]. Comparison of Interest Rates of Different Risks - Subsequent reduction of lending rates may require a decline in bond yields. Enterprise lending rates cannot be lower than government bond yields such as Treasury bonds and local bonds [4][22]. - High - interest 30 - year local bonds may restrict the downward movement of lending rates. Considering tax factors, the loan lower - limit determined by government bonds may be higher, which can reduce competitive low - price lending by banks but may also limit the decline in financing costs to some extent [4][25].

北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 实习生 岳雯艳）11月17日，人民银行开展系列流动性操作，其中，以1.40% 的固定利率开展2830亿元7天期逆回购操作，因当日有1199亿元逆回购到期，公开市场实现逆回购净投 放1631亿元；同时，人民银行开展8000亿元6个月期买断式逆回购操作，鉴于当月有3000亿元同期限品 种到期，此次操作实现加量续作5000亿元，延续了近期流动性调控的加码态势。 值得注意的是，11月以来，人民银行对流动性的调控呈现"量增价稳"趋势。据统计，11月通过买断式逆 回购已实现净投放5000亿元，规模较10月增加1000亿元，且这已是连续第六个月加量续作。对此，明明 指出，短期资金面受税期、政府债缴款等因素扰动，存在阶段性紧张，凸显了人民银行意在提供更稳定 的中期资金。当前操作利率保持稳定，重点在于维持流动性合理充裕，而非引导利率过快下行。 中国人民银行近日发布的《2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告》也明确指出，下阶段将实施好适度 宽松的货币政策。报告强调，要综合运用多种工具，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，同时继续完善货币政 策框架，强化货币政策的执行和传导。保持流动性充裕，使社会融资规模、货币供应 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. government has reopened after a record 43-day shutdown, leading to pending economic data that may impact market participants and the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The September U.S. employment report is expected to show an addition of 50,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.3%, despite previous data indicating a weak job market [3][4] - If the employment data is significantly weak, it could lead to a decline in the U.S. dollar and an increase in interest rate cut expectations, with the dollar index potentially testing the support level of 98.57 [3] Group 2 - The U.K. economy is under scrutiny due to stagnation, with GDP data for September and Q3 falling short of expectations, reinforcing market expectations for further monetary easing by the Bank of England [5][6] - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee recently voted 5 to 4 to maintain the base rate at 4.0%, indicating a split between hawkish and dovish members [5][6] - Upcoming inflation reports in the U.K. are critical, with the core CPI expected to decrease from 3.8% to 3.6%, and the core CPI from 3.5% to 3.4%, which may influence market expectations for interest rate cuts [7]

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1] Energy Crude Oil - International oil prices fluctuated last week, with the Brent 01 contract rising 0.93%. Geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela supported oil prices, but the Russian Black Sea port resumed loading on Sunday. Supply-demand pressure in the crude oil market is expected to increase in Q4 and Q1 next year, and there is still a downside risk for oil prices in the medium term. Short-term attention should be paid to the impact of Russia's sanctions on two types of oil exports after November 21 and the release of Venezuelan risks [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil is still suppressed by the cost side. High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by a marginal decline in Russian exports due to sanctions and facility attacks in the short term, but its exports are expected to increase further as the Middle East increases production and the power generation peak season ends, and the medium-term supply pattern may become more relaxed. Low-sulfur fuel oil has seen some improvement in its fundamentals compared to the previous period, as unstable overseas refinery operations have relieved some supply pressure, and the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking provides support from the conversion logic, combined with the peak demand season for marine fuel in Q4 and the easing of Sino-US trade relations [20] LPG - Import resources are in short supply. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation plants has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the demand for the combustion end. The storage rates of refineries and ports have decreased. LPG is expected to show a slightly stronger and fluctuating trend under the tightening of supply and demand [22] Urea - The new plant of Xinjiang Zhongneng has successfully produced products, and the daily output of urea continues to increase. The start of production of industrial compound fertilizers has increased recently, and the reserve demand has followed up at low prices, resulting in a reduction in inventory for production enterprises. The impact of export sentiment is greater than the actual situation, and the short-term market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with the price center possibly moving slightly upward [23] Methanol - The volume of imported methanol arriving at ports continues to be high, and port inventories continue to accumulate. Overseas plants are operating at a high level, and there is an abundant supply of in-transit goods. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and there are expectations of shutdown and maintenance for several coastal MTO plants. Methanol may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support at the integer mark, and the market is likely to rebound in response to positive news. Monitor the shutdown time of overseas plants and changes in port inventories [24] Pure Benzene - The overseas gasoline market is strong, and the market is mainly trading on the tight supply of US pure benzene and overseas blending oil demand. The outflow of Asian pure benzene and toluene has increased. The absolute price of pure benzene is low, and the profitability is poor, but the inventory pressure is not significant, and the price has elasticity. The price rebounded last week. However, the profitability of downstream industries is generally weak, and overseas demand may be volatile, so caution is needed when evaluating the height of the rebound [25] Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene - The overall supply in the propylene market is abundant. Production enterprises have a certain intention to stabilize the market, but the overall trading volume is average, and a small number of offers have seen narrow discounts. Downstream factories are mainly waiting and watching based on rigid demand, and their purchasing mentality is cautious. However, the gradual resumption of previously shut-down butanol and octanol plants provides some support for propylene demand. In the case of polyethylene, there are no new shutdowns in domestic petrochemical plants, and most are operating normally, resulting in a stable supply of domestic products. The orders of packaging film factories have decreased, and the demand is average, with a weakened willingness to replenish stocks. The operation rate of greenhouse film factories has declined, and new orders are limited, leading to a gradual weakening of demand and a reduction in raw material purchases. For polypropylene, the previously shut-down plants have gradually restarted, increasing the supply pressure slightly. Downstream industries continue to purchase based on rigid demand, and the market trading is average, with a supply-demand imbalance still existing. Although the cost side provides stronger support, the market price is still difficult to achieve continuous growth [27] PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC shows a fluctuating trend The cancellation of India's BIS certification slightly exceeded market expectations, but the overall impact is not significant. Attention should be paid to whether India's anti-dumping policy will be implemented. The price of calcium carbide is temporarily stable, and the integrated gross profit of Shandong caustic soda and PVC is slightly in the red, providing some cost support. Upstream plants are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in industry inventories. Domestic demand is insufficient, and exports are affected by India's anti-dumping tax, leading to a wait-and-see attitude in the market. With high supply and weak demand, PVC is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Caustic soda also shows a fluctuating trend. The upstream cost has increased, and the price of caustic soda has weakened, resulting in a decline in the integrated profit of chlor-alkali. Inventories have decreased month-on-month but still face significant year-on-year pressure. The profitability of alumina has been compressed, and some enterprises are in the red, with a possibility of production cuts in the future. Currently, the raw material inventory is high, and downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to replenish stocks. With high supply and insufficient demand, caustic soda is operating weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in profitability in the future [28] PX & PTA - Affected by the tight supply of overseas aromatics, the price of PX has rebounded, driving up the price of PTA. The demand for terminal cold-proof fabrics is good, but the overall market atmosphere has cooled down. The profitability of PTA is poor, and there are still expectations of industry-wide production cuts. Recently, some plants have reduced their operating loads. The operating rate of PX plants is high, and there are also plans for plant maintenance in the future. The strong gasoline crack spread overseas and the tight supply of US aromatics have once again boosted the Asian aromatics market. However, considering the expected weakening of chemical demand and the uncertainty of the sustainability of overseas demand, a cautious bullish attitude is recommended [29] Ethylene Glycol - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly month-on-month, with integrated plants increasing their operating rates and syngas-based plants reducing theirs. The port inventory increased significantly on Monday according to Longzhong data. The start-up of new production capacity and the restart of old plants have increased the supply pressure significantly. In the short term, the increase in supply has been slightly alleviated by the increase in shutdowns of syngas-based plants. In the medium term, demand is expected to weaken, and a bearish outlook is maintained. The strategy of reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread is recommended. Continue to monitor the dynamics of plants after the decline in profitability of syngas-based plants [30] Short Fiber & Bottle Chip - There is no pressure from new production capacity for short fiber, and plants are operating at a high load. The spot market situation is good, but there are expectations of weakening demand, which may put pressure on processing margins. The absolute price fluctuates with the raw material price. As the weather gets colder, the demand for bottle chips has weakened, putting pressure on processing margins. The operating rate of plants has increased slightly, and overcapacity is a long-term pressure. The price is mainly driven by costs [31] Glass - The price of glass decreased with an increase in positions. The high inventory in the middle stream is still having a negative impact, and the spot price is showing a downward trend, with inventory accumulating this week. The increase in coal prices has raised costs and reduced profits. Four production lines in Shahe have stopped production, reducing the daily melting capacity. Processing orders have improved month-on-month but are still insufficient year-on-year. The high inventory in the middle stream persists, and the weak market reality continues. The futures price has limited upward momentum, and there is significant competition between bulls and bears in the short term. It is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach [32] 20 Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber - The price of international crude oil futures has increased, while the price of raw materials in the Thai market has remained stable with a slight decline. Currently, the global supply of natural rubber is at a high level, but the production in Yunnan, China, has entered a declining period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to increase slowly, while the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to increase significantly. Last week, the operating rate of domestic all-steel radial tire plants decreased slightly, while that of semi-steel radial tire plants increased slightly. The inventory of finished products of Shandong tire enterprises continued to increase. According to Longzhong data, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 44.95 million tons last week, and according to Zhuochuang data, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber continued to increase to 1.59 million tons, while the inventory of Chinese butadiene at ports continued to decline to 2.9 million tons. Overall, demand is slowly weakening, the supply of natural rubber is decreasing, the supply of synthetic rubber is increasing, rubber inventories are increasing, and cost support is stable. Market sentiment is cautious. The strategy is to expect a rebound for RU and BR after an oversold situation, adopt a wait-and-see approach for NR, and pay attention to cross-variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR and BR [33] Soda Ash - Soda ash shows a fluctuating trend. The market for light soda ash is performing well, and industry inventories are fluctuating within a narrow range. Costs have increased, and both ammonia-soda and combined-soda plants are slightly in the red. Some soda ash plants have undergone maintenance, resulting in a month-on-month decline in production. The ignition and cold repair of photovoltaic glass coexist, and the overall production capacity has not changed significantly. Four production lines of float glass have recently stopped production. Attention should be paid to the cost-driven factor. If costs decrease, the price may fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, under the high-pressure supply pattern, there will still be a situation of oversupply [34] Metals Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices dropped significantly on Friday. With the end of the longest government shutdown in US history, the market is waiting for economic data to further assess the economic and monetary policy outlook. The hawkish statements of Fed officials have suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts. Precious metals are forming a high-level consolidation platform, patiently waiting for new drivers and directional guidance from the technical side [3] Copper - The copper price first declined and then rebounded during the night session on Friday. Attention should be paid to the performance of short-term moving averages and the movement of funds. Last week, the domestic and international copper prices encountered resistance at $88,000 and $110,000 respectively. The main trading theme in the market is not clear. The market is waiting for US economic indicators and paying attention to the strength of domestic demand. The price of domestic spot copper is reported at 87,210 yuan, with a premium of 50 yuan in Shanghai and flat in Guangdong. Short-term high-level short positions can be traded with a stop-loss at 88,000 yuan. The copper price is currently in a consolidation phase [4] Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum declined on Friday. Although there are potential stories in the long-term supply and demand of the aluminum market, the short-term fundamentals are stable, and the inventory and spot performance are neutral. After the position in Shanghai aluminum increased to 800,000 lots, it decreased for two consecutive days. The overall linkage among non-ferrous metals is strong, and the slightly stronger and fluctuating trend has not been broken. Attention should be paid to the movement of funds [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan to 21,000 yuan on Friday. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the adjustment of the tax rate policy is still unclear. Both the industry inventory and the exchange warehouse receipts are at a high level. Cast aluminum alloy continues to fluctuate with the aluminum price, and there is no obvious driving force for the price difference [6] Alumina - The operating production capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both the industry inventory and the exchange warehouse receipts continue to increase. The pattern of oversupply is difficult to change. There is a certain degree of reluctance to sell in the spot market, and the decline of the index has slowed down and is gradually approaching the cash loss in Shanxi and Henan. However, the price of ore has become more flexible, and there is a small amount of room for cost reduction. Before large-scale production cuts are implemented, alumina is expected to operate weakly with limited room for rebound [7] Zinc - Fed officials have made hawkish statements, leading to a widespread decline in the overseas equity market. Long positions in the non-ferrous metals sector have accelerated their exit. The price of Shanghai zinc has retraced to the 5-day moving average, erasing all the gains since November and failing to effectively break through the upper limit of the bottom consolidation range. The LME zinc inventory has continued to increase slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 159,600 tons. The divergence in inventory trends between the domestic and international markets has been temporarily corrected, and there is limited room for further expansion of the price difference between the domestic and international markets. The TC of both domestic and overseas mines has decreased simultaneously, and the zinc price has declined significantly, putting pressure on the profits of domestic smelters. Production cuts by some smelters have gradually been implemented. The support level for the rebound of Shanghai zinc is currently seen at the 20-day moving average [8] Lead - The price of lead is relatively high, and downstream procurement has significantly weakened. Smelters are actively resuming production, leading to a weakening of the fundamentals. Long funds have taken profits at high prices, and the net outflow of funds from the weighted Shanghai lead contract exceeded 100 million yuan during the day. Shanghai lead felt significant pressure near the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton. The upcoming launch of energy storage orders and new national standard electric vehicles, along with the reduction in the tax exemption for new energy vehicles next year, have temporarily improved the consumption expectation of lead. However, as the weather gets colder, the orders of some battery enterprises have weakened, and the operating rate has declined, providing insufficient support for the high lead price. The supply of scrap batteries and lead concentrates remains tight. Considering the cost support, Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] Tin - The price fluctuation of Shanghai tin increased during the night session on Friday. After the main contract rebounded from the MA10 moving average and 288,000 yuan, it recovered the decline and fluctuated above 290,000 yuan. The social inventory of tin according to Steel Union increased by 646 tons to 7,934 tons last week, and the SMM social inventory increased by 410 tons to 7,443 tons. The tin market still needs to pay attention to changes in domestic funds. The uncertainty of the resumption rhythm of Dibang and the efficiency of the capacity rectification of Indonesia's天马 has led the market to focus on the tight supply situation last week. Wait for today's social inventory data. Long-term high-level short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] Iron Ore - The futures price of iron ore rebounded slightly last week. On the supply side, the global shipment volume is slightly stronger than the same period last year. The Simandou iron ore mine has officially started production, but the short-term production capacity that can be released is limited. The volume of iron ore arriving at domestic ports is at a high level for the same period, and the port inventory continues to show an increasing trend. There are some structural changes in the inventory of Australian iron ore. On the demand side, the demand for steel in the off-season has declined, and the loss situation of steel mills has worsened. Although the iron ore production rebounded last week, there is still room for production cuts in the future. At the macro level, many important events have been implemented and priced in, and the short-term impact on the futures price is weakening. The market has started to price in the reality of a marginal loosening of the iron ore supply-demand situation. It is expected that the price of iron ore will fluctuate [14] Coke - The price fluctuated during the day. The fourth round of price increases for coking coal was fully implemented this week. The profitability of coking enterprises is still average, and the daily production has decreased slightly. The coke inventory has decreased slightly. Currently, downstream enterprises are purchasing on a small scale based on demand, resulting in a slight reduction in inventory. The purchasing willingness of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant. The iron ore production has returned to a high level, and the demand for raw materials remains resilient. The profit level of the steel industry is average, and there is a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures price of coke is at a premium, and the price is expected to fluctuate [15] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated during the day. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly. The spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices showed a mixed trend. The terminal inventory increased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly month-on-month, and the inventory at the production end increased slightly. Safety inspections have been carried out in major coal-producing regions. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant. The iron ore production has returned to a high level, and the demand for raw materials remains resilient. The profit level of the steel industry is average, and there is a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures price of coke is at a premium, and the futures price of coking coal is at a discount to the Mongolian coal price. The market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in major coking coal-producing regions. The price is expected to fluctuate [1

研 究 院 货 金 融 美联储政策难料，铜价承压回落 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 究 院 美国经济数据即将公布，市场预计美联储12月降息概率下降至五成以下，避险情绪持续上升，风险资产全面走弱。 宏观利空影响，今日市场走势偏弱。日内美元上涨人民币下跌，有色金属普遍下跌。沪铜下跌，伦铜下跌，国内现货铜 下跌。 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 期 货 金 融 研 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报86450，现货报86620，沪铜低位震荡，现货较期货升水170点。今日现货基差升水上升 至105点，现货成交不佳。LME现货本周转为升水4美元，外盘现货需求有所好转。本周美铜库存继续上升创新高，伦铜库 存稳定，沪铜库存小幅上升，现货需求不佳。本周人民币汇率大幅上涨，洋山铜溢价下降至32美元的近期新低，国内现 货需求不佳。铜价伦沪比上升至8.01，国际铜较沪铜升水升水至537点，外盘比价高于内盘。 弘 业 技术上看，今日伦铜小幅下跌，在10825美元附近运行。沪铜探底回升小幅下跌，收于86450，技术形态偏弱。沪铜 成交上升持仓下降，市场分歧较大。宏观层面上看，美联 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a weak adjustment, with trading volume decreasing to below 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a cautious sentiment amid mixed economic signals and monetary policy expectations [1] Monetary Policy - On November 17, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 800 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a six-month term, indicating a continuation of its "moderately loose" monetary policy stance [2] - This operation aims to provide stable medium-term liquidity support, reduce the cost of liabilities for banks, and encourage increased credit issuance [2] Company Developments - Alibaba announced the public beta launch of its Qianwen App, aiming to compete directly with ChatGPT in the AI to C market, integrating various daily life scenarios to enhance its service capabilities [3] - The integration of high-frequency scenarios like maps and food delivery into Qianwen is expected to create an "AI + service" closed loop, potentially increasing user engagement and commercialization opportunities [3] Market Performance - On November 17, the A-share indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46% to 3972.03 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.11% to 13202.00 points [4] - The technology sector showed resilience, with the ChiNext Index only down 0.20% and the Sci-Tech Innovation 100 Index up 0.42% [4] Trading Volume - The market turnover was 19,304.69 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease from the previous trading day, while the margin financing balance also saw a decline [5]

日本政府预计本周通过逾17万亿日元的经济对策。此外，日本央行上月将利率维持在0.5%，此前 曾表示若经济符合预期将考虑进一步收紧政策。 本季度外需转为拖累，对GDP贡献度从上季的正0.2个百分点转为负0.2个百分点。美国提高部分商 品关税，对依赖出口的日本冲击显著，9月对美汽车出口同比大跌24.2%。虽然双方在7月达成协议，将 关税统一降至15%，但在全球需求疲弱背景下，季度出口仍环比下降1.2%，而汽车产业是日本对美出口 的最大板块。 日本国内需求表现分化。占GDP逾半的个人消费仅微增0.1%，较上季度的0.4%显著放缓，其中高 企的食品价格持续抑制家庭支出；企业设备投资增长1.0%，明显高于市场预估，成为少数亮点；住宅 投资则因新建房屋环保标准收紧而大幅下滑。GDP平减指数同比上涨2.8%，显示基础通胀仍具黏性。 日本内阁府公布的初值显示，7—9月的季度，日本经济同比下降1.8%，为六个季度来首次负增 长。季度环比下降0.4%，虽好于市场预期的2.5%跌幅，但经济放缓使货币政策与财政部署面临更大压 力。 ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is warned about the potential systemic importance of stablecoins linked to the US dollar, which have surged in size, exceeding $300 billion, with a 48% increase this year [1] - Olaf Sleijpen, a member of the ECB's governing council, expressed concerns that a panic sell-off of underlying assets of unstable stablecoins could threaten financial stability and impact the broader economy and inflation [1] - The ECB may need to reconsider its monetary policy in response to the risks posed by stablecoins, although the direction of any policy adjustment remains uncertain [1] Group 2 - Despite the warnings regarding future risks, Sleijpen maintains a relatively optimistic view on current monetary policy, noting improvements in the Eurozone since June, with reduced trade uncertainty and better-than-expected economic growth [2] - He believes there is "no reason" to adjust interest rates based on current information, and views inflation risks as "balanced," contrasting with a more hawkish perspective from other ECB officials [2] - Investor expectations indicate only a 25% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the end of next year, reflecting a cautious outlook on future monetary policy adjustments [2]

Group 1: Market Data - DROO1 and GC001 closed at 1.37 and 1.26 respectively, with changes of 5.30bp and 28.00bp compared to the previous value; DR007 and GC007 closed at 1.47 and 1.49 respectively, with changes of -1.09bp and 2.00bp [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.58 with no change; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.50 with no change; 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds closed at 1.41, 1.58, 1.81 respectively, with changes of 0.00bp, 0.32bp, -0.16bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.14 with a 3.00bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1122 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 495.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturing, resulting in a net injection of 626.2 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1122 billion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature in the central bank's open - market operations, and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit will mature on Thursday [5] Group 2: Stock Index Data - The closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4628, 3038, 7235, and 7503 respectively, with changes of -1.57%, -1.15%, -1.63%, -1.16% compared to the previous day; the closing prices of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts were 4614, 3034, 7208, and 7468 respectively, with changes of -1.7%, -1.3%, -1.7%, -1.3% [6] - Last week, CSI 300 fell 1.08% to 4628.1, SSE 50 remained unchanged at 3038.4, CSI 500 fell 1.26% to 7235.5, and CSI 1000 fell 0.52% to 7502.8 [6] - In the Shenwan primary industry index, last week, the comprehensive, textile and apparel, commercial and retail, pharmaceutical and biological, and food and beverage sectors led the gains, while the communication, electronics, computer, machinery, and national defense and military industries led the losses [6] - Last week, the daily trading volumes of A - shares were 1992.9 billion yuan, 1822 billion yuan, 1785 billion yuan, 1878.3 billion yuan, and 1796.5 billion yuan respectively, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 39.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In October, economic data showed a weakening trend, with investment growth and real - estate prices accelerating their decline; from January to October, the cumulative year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, with the growth rate falling 1.2 percentage points compared to September [7] - In terms of investment structure, real - estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points; infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling 1.83 percentage points; manufacturing investment increased by 2.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate falling 1.3 percentage points [7] - In October, CPI year - on - year growth turned positive to 0.2%, and the month - on - month increase was 0.1 percentage points to 0.2%, driven by rising service prices, food prices, and gold prices [7] - The current macro - level is a mix of long and short factors. After the overall adjustment of the technology sector, the market lacks a core driving force. The market is divided on whether the valuation of technology stocks will further increase and whether the market can shift from a structural market to a full - scale slow - bull market [7] - The stock index is expected to continue the volatile pattern of having a bottom support and facing upward pressure. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the stock - index's volatile adjustment, and new driving forces are awaited for the stock index to rise further [7] Group 4: Futures Premium and Discount Data - The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM for current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are presented in the table, with specific values such as 22.30%, 6.63%, 3.55%, 3.54% for IF [8]