作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 2025.05. 27 本文字数：1763，阅读时长大约3分钟 今年以来，全球贸易形势变化成为了黄金上涨的重要推手。在中美日内瓦商贸谈判后，国际金价一度 从历史高位回撤近6%，然而美国总统特朗普在关税问题上反复和随后美国多边贸易谈判缺乏实质性 进展使得市场焦虑情绪卷土重来。花旗在最新报告中将三个月金价目标位再次调回至3500美元，不 过长期前景面临不利因素挑战。与此同时，不少机构将美国财政危局、美元弱势和实物需求旺盛视为 短中期利多因素。 花旗：短期看好长期谨慎 在上周日发布的一份研究报告中，花旗预测未来三个月内黄金交易目标为3500美元，高于5月12日 设定的3300美元。 最新修正源于特朗普上周再次发出威胁，要从6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。不过随后他改变了 想法，据央视新闻报道，当地时间25日，特朗普表示，欧盟请求将关税谈判期限延长至7月9日，他 已同意这一请求。特朗普称，本次与欧盟就关税问题的谈话"非常愉快"。 尽管上修了目标价，花旗分析师对黄金长期前景持谨慎态度，并列举了两个可能的不利因素：其一， 随着美国中期选举临近和美联储降息，经济增长和相关股票风险可能会解除。其 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant reduction of tariffs on soybean imports between the US and China, with the US lowering tariffs from 145% to 30% and China from 125% to 10% [1] - China has ceased purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid-January, leading to a complete halt in imports from the US, while increasing purchases from Brazil, which has become the primary supplier [3][4] - Brazil's soybean production is at a record high, and the country has become the largest supplier of soybeans to China, accounting for over 70% of China's imports [8] Group 2 - The US soybean industry is facing challenges due to tariffs, with a significant drop in soybean imports to China, which fell to the lowest level since 2008, with March imports at 3.5 million tons, down 36.8% year-on-year [6] - The US is exploring new markets in India, Egypt, and Mexico, but establishing these alternatives may take one to two decades [6] - China's soybean import structure has changed dramatically, with Brazil now supplying more than 60% of the global trade and over 70% of China's imports, further eroding the US market share [8]

Market Reaction - Major US stock indexes experienced significant declines, with the Dow down 380 points (0.9%), S&P 500 down 1.1%, and Nasdaq down 1.4% in early trading [1] - US stock futures extended losses following President Trump's tariff threats, with Nasdaq futures down 1.9%, Dow futures down 1.5%, and S&P 500 futures down 1.6% [4] Trade Tensions - President Trump proposed substantial tariffs on EU goods and suggested a 25% import tax on Apple if iPhones are not manufactured in the US [2][6] - Analysts expressed concerns that the current rhetoric represents a destabilizing threat, increasing the risk of recession and long-term damage to US credibility [2] Bond Market and Safe Haven Assets - Bond yields dropped sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 12 basis points to 4.10%, indicating a flight to safety among investors [3] - Gold prices spiked, reflecting market apprehension, while the dollar gained strength [3] Economic Indicators - Traders are monitoring upcoming economic data, including April's new home sales, as they prepare for a bond market close ahead of the Memorial Day weekend [3] Political Developments - The House of Representatives passed President Trump's tax and spending package by a narrow margin, raising concerns about its impact on bond markets and US debt levels [10]

金十数据5月22日讯，欧洲央行会议纪要显示，欧洲央行决策者上月表示，欧元区通胀几乎被遏制，即 便贸易途径可能进一步引发通胀，但贸易紧张局势可能在短期内打压物价。欧洲央行上月在一年内第七 次降息，并警告称，经济增长将受到美国关税的严重打击，这加大了未来几个月进一步放宽政策的押 注。欧洲央行在会议纪要中表示："委员们表示，对通胀将在中期内回归目标水平的信心增强，对通胀 冲击的斗争已接近尾声。因此，反通胀的力量很可能在短期内占据主导地位。"尽管自4月会议以来，贸 易紧张局势在很大程度上有所缓解，但普遍存在的不确定性继续打压市场情绪，使人们坚定地押注欧洲 央行将于6月再次降息。不过，一些政策制定者认为，从长远来看，贸易战将导致通胀。会议纪要补充 称："鉴于破坏全球价值链的破坏性影响，这些委员认为贸易冲击在短期内引发通胀的可能性更大。" 欧洲央行会议纪要：抗通胀的进程已接近尾声 ...

美联储穆萨莱姆：如果贸易紧张局势持续缓解，通胀可能回到目标水平，劳动力市场保持弹性，当前的 货币政策将保持适当性。 ...

Core Insights - Geopolitical factors, trade tensions, and the unpredictability of U.S. government policies are determining the global environment [1] - These factors have a decisive impact on global economic growth prospects and pose risks to the stability of the financial system [1] - Higher tariffs are expected to primarily affect the United States, with lesser impacts on the Eurozone and Spain [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global environment is significantly influenced by geopolitical factors, trade tensions, and the unpredictability of U.S. government policies [1] Group 1 - Geopolitical tensions are a major determinant of the current global economic landscape [1] - Trade disputes continue to create uncertainty in international markets [1] - The unpredictability of U.S. government policies adds to the complexity of the global economic environment [1]

Group 1 - The gold market is experiencing unprecedented volatility this year, characterized by significant price fluctuations and a shift from "black swan" events to daily occurrences of $100 price swings [1] - Factors contributing to this volatility include tariff disputes, geopolitical tensions, de-dollarization trends, fluctuating Federal Reserve policies, and global recession expectations [1] - Recent trading patterns indicate a bearish sentiment, with gold prices fluctuating around 3222, and key resistance and support levels identified at 3250 and 3200 respectively [3] Group 2 - The silver market opened with slight gains, supported by key technical levels, while a weakening dollar and renewed trade tensions have increased safe-haven demand [6] - Silver prices are currently hovering around 32.33, with potential upward movement if they break through the resistance at 32.65, targeting 33.00 [6] - Short-term trading strategies for silver suggest focusing on selling on rebounds and buying on dips, with critical resistance and support levels identified at 32.65-32.75 and 32.20-32.10 respectively [6]

Group 1 - The European Commission indicates that the economic growth outlook for the Eurozone is facing downward risks due to trade tensions and climate-related disasters [1] - The Eurozone's GDP growth is projected to be only 0.9% this year, down from a previous forecast of 1.3% [1] - By 2026, the Eurozone's economic growth is expected to accelerate to 1.4%, but this is still below the earlier estimate of 1.6% [1] Group 2 - The first quarter GDP growth rate for the Eurozone was revised to 0.3%, below the expected 0.4% [2] - Industrial production in March saw a month-on-month increase of 2.6%, significantly higher than the economists' forecast of 1.1% [2] - The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is expected to decrease from 6.4% in 2024 to 6.3% in 2025, and further to 6.1% in 2026 [2] Group 3 - The European Commission forecasts that consumer inflation in the Eurozone will slow from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025, and further to 1.7% in 2026 [2] - Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to rise from 88.9% in 2024 to 89.9% in 2025, and to 91.0% in 2026 [2] - The overall budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is projected to increase from 3.1% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, and to 3.3% in 2026 [2] Group 4 - Barclays Bank maintains a cautious outlook on the Eurozone's growth prospects due to high current uncertainties and a lack of progress in tariff negotiations between the US and EU [3]

欧盟委员会：受贸易紧张局势和气候相关灾害影响，欧元区经济增长前景面临下行风险。 ...