Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows new resilience with the dual records of "trillion - kilowatt - hour electricity consumption and trillion - yuan trading volume". The policy combination is effective, and a positive cycle has been formed [1]. - The domestic stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + fund bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2]. - Various commodities have different trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Chief Comment - A - share market major indices are rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively this year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets frequently exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance is at a historical high [1]. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0226 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to a decade ago [1]. - China's foreign trade maintains a steady - to - improving trend, with the cumulative import and export growth rate rising month by month, achieving a 3.5% increase in the first seven months [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Equity Index**: The equity index shows differentiation. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The external risks are gradually easing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices with more technology - growth components are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices with more dividend - blue - chip components are more defensive [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. The market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and the overall trend of gold and silver may be volatile with the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices continue to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, strong oil demand, and the uncertainty of efforts to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The hurricane season in 2025 is relatively calm so far [3]. c. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU plans to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion of US AI chips by 2028 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council agreed in principle to the "Development Plan for the Open and Innovative Development of the Whole Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Free Trade Pilot Zone" [6]. - **Industry News**: In July, the total social electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of new energy [7]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The US three major indices fell. The domestic equity index shows differentiation, and the market trading volume is 2.46 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable period, but investors need to pay attention to sector rotation [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after reaching the bottom. The central bank's monetary policy is loose, which supports short - term treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market, and the cross - variety spread may widen [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as inventory decline and demand. The hurricane has not affected key oil and gas infrastructure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased, and the OPEC's production increase situation needs to be monitored [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand. The inventory is slowly being digested, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to - late August [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Similar to polyolefins, the market is driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market and supply - cost changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are volatile, waiting for signals from Powell's speech. The long - term drivers of gold still support the price, and the overall trend may be volatile [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees and stable downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates has improved, and the smelting supply may recover [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also expected to increase. The inventory situation is complex, and the price may have room to rise if the inventory is depleted [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [22]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke are in a wide - range volatile state, with intense long - short competition [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal are weakly volatile at night. The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the reduction in planting area provides support. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats rose at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, but there are risks of a short - term decline due to factors such as US biodiesel news [26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile as the global sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, but import pressure may drag down prices [27]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively tight, but the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside space [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is weakly volatile. The freight rate has been decreasing, and the short - term decline may slow down. The high - volume capacity supply may increase the downward pressure on freight rates during the off - season [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is becoming more rational, and the futures market trend is weakening. If the demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain the current level, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - The influence of sentiment on the futures market is still significant, and prices will remain volatile. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short - term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities [10]. - In the long - term, the prices of glass and soda ash are affected by the "anti - involution" logic, with their price centers expected to gradually rise, but their upside potential is limited due to weak demand [18][19]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,258 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.246%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 1,197 tons, and the position decreased by 7,237 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,484 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (0.548%), with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 8,925 tons and the position increasing by 6,551 lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by production restriction news, the cost side price rose, driving up the finished product price. The export volume declined slightly this week. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, with social inventory accumulating for two consecutive weeks. Hot - rolled coils showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, with significant inventory accumulation. If demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may decline [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 801.00 yuan/ton, up 1.52% (+12.00), with a position increase of 51,084 lots to 443,800 lots. The weighted position was 940,500 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 35.74 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.27% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.39 tons. Port inventory fluctuated slightly, and steel mill inventory increased slightly. The terminal data weakened slightly. The supply pressure is not significant, and demand support still exists [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position**: On August 12, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.16% at 6,110 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 0.17% at 5,820 yuan/ton. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically [8][9]. - **Market Outlook**: The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon has not changed. Both ferrosilicon and manganese silicon may face weakening marginal demand. Attention should be paid to downstream demand and relevant policies [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8,840 yuan/ton, down 1.78% (-160). The spot price remained flat. The supply is expected to increase in August, and demand can provide some support. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 51,800 yuan/ton, down 2.24% (-1,185). The spot price remained flat. In August, polysilicon is expected to increase production, and the inventory is likely to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe and Central China decreased. The national inventory increased by 3.95% month - on - month. The market sentiment has cooled down. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, it depends on policies and demand [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased by 40 yuan. The total inventory increased by 0.60%. The downstream is on the sidelines. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and in the long - term, the price center is expected to rise, but the upside is limited [19].

黑色建材日报 2025-08-12 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3250 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 37 元/吨（1.151%）。当日注册仓单 95557 吨, 环比增加 579 吨。主力合约持仓量为 161.2625 万手，环比增加 515 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津 汇总价格为 3340 元/吨, 环比增加 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3360 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3465 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 37 元/吨（1.079%）。 当日注册仓单 69461 吨, 环比减 少 1454 吨。主力合约持仓量为 137.5009 万手，环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic macro - policies are set to continue and increase efforts, with proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to be implemented. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and the market is speculating about a possible September rate cut [1]. - In the long - term, A - shares offer good investment value. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][11]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue to fluctuate. Although there are long - term drivers, the high price makes upward movement hesitant [3][19]. - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. However, the economic data improvement may be overestimated, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The initial estimate of the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in Q2 was 3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The annualized quarterly growth rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, down from the previous 3.5% but higher than the expected 2.3% [6]. - **Domestic News**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with the board delegation of the US - China Business Council, emphasizing the need to establish communication channels and maintain stable Sino - US economic and trade relations [7]. - **Industry News**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strictly control new production capacity of copper smelting and alumina, and guide the rational layout of new capacity for silicon, lithium, and magnesium [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.12%, the European STOXX 50 increased by 0.06%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.13%, the US dollar index increased by 1.06%, ICE Brent crude oil increased by 0.98%, and gold and silver prices declined [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices showed mixed performance. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small - cap stocks weakening. The bank sector has performed well since 2025, and it is expected that the proportion of long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase. A - shares have high long - term investment value [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded significantly. The central bank increased open - market operations, and the short - term Shibor mostly declined. Overseas, the US GDP growth exceeded expectations, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Domestically, industrial enterprise profits improved, and the IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast. Short - term Treasury bond futures prices may stabilize [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rose for three consecutive days. The US economic growth in Q2 exceeded expectations, but the improvement may be overestimated. US crude oil inventories increased, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.9% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of methanol plants decreased. Coastal methanol inventories continued to rise, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fluctuated during the day. Spot prices were stable. In the short - term, they will fluctuate widely, and the market is divided. The focus is on the process of fundamental repair [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded and then declined. The summer maintenance led to supply contraction, and inventories decreased. The short - term focus is on policy implementation and fundamental digestion speed [17]. - **Rubber**: The recent rainfall in the producing areas affected rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices continued to decline. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and there were uncertainties about a September rate cut. The US economic data showed resilience, and the long - term drivers of gold still provided support, but the high price made upward movement difficult [3][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. The US only imposed a 50% tariff on copper products, exempting refined copper. The processing fee for concentrates is low, and downstream demand is generally stable. Copper prices may fluctuate in a range [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The processing fee for concentrates has been rising. Domestic demand shows mixed performance, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short - term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose due to mining qualification issues. The demand in July continued to be strong, but the inventory increased. The short - term focus is on warehouse receipts, and the medium - term does not have the basis for a reversal [23]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production momentum of steel mills, but the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently. The inventory at ports is decreasing rapidly, and the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the inventory is decreasing. Steel exports are facing challenges, but billet exports are strong. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the coke production improved. The inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased, while that in coal mines decreased. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish after adjustment [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean growth is good, and the futures price is under pressure. The domestic protein meal price is supported by concerns about soybean supply and the rise of rapeseed meal price [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while rapeseed oil fluctuated and closed up. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the export decreased. The market is concerned about trade trends, which support the oil and fat sector [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 10 - contract closed down 0.45%. The spot freight rate has begun to loosen, and the 10 - contract is at a deep discount, which provides some support. The market will gradually shift to the off - season freight rate game [30].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of urban work meetings and the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on urban renewal and community building [1] - The U.S. retail sales have rebounded across various sectors, alleviating some concerns about consumer spending, with 10 out of 13 retail categories showing growth, primarily driven by a recovery in auto sales [1] - The Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has highlighted the need for comprehensive implementation of various livelihood projects and safety engineering [1] Group 2 - In the steel market, the profitability of steel mills remains stable, with a gradual decline in iron water production, while steel inventory continues to decrease [2][21] - The overall steel market is not facing significant supply-demand imbalances, and short-term exports are expected to remain resilient despite tariff impacts [2][21] - The macroeconomic outlook is strong, contributing to price increases in black commodities, including steel [2][21] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market indices have risen, with the defense and military sector leading gains, while the banking sector has lagged [3][8] - The financing balance has increased, indicating a growing interest in long-term investments in the capital market, which may reduce stock market volatility [3][8] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are supported by technology innovation policies [3][8] Group 4 - The European shipping index has shown fluctuations, with the EC contract closing at 1581.3 points, down 4.28% [4][25] - Despite a general decline in shipping rates, the European line has not followed the U.S. line's downward trend, indicating a potential recovery in market expectations [4][25] - The focus is on the upcoming August shipping rates, with limited information currently available from shipping companies [4][25] Group 5 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission reported that central enterprises achieved a total added value of 5.2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year [6] - The emphasis is on transitioning from labor-intensive growth to innovation-driven growth for high-quality development [6] - The National Intellectual Property Administration has reported an increase in the industrialization rate of invention patents from 44.9% in 2020 to 53.3% in 2024 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic semi - annual "report card" shows that the H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.3%. The fixed - asset investment grew by 2.8%, while real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][11]. - The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures. However, the "anti - involution" policy drives up the prices of some commodities, and the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of short - term price rebound but may still fluctuate due to hedging pressure and no signs of production cuts at the mine end [4][5][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. International News - On July 15, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the US unadjusted CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February. The seasonally adjusted CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [6]. b. Domestic News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing from July 14 - 15, emphasizing achievements in urban development since the 18th National Congress of the CPC [7]. c. Industry News - On July 15, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 422.87 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. From January to June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24.5458 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [8]. d. Key Varieties Analysis - **Equity Index**: The US three major indexes mainly declined. The previous trading day's equity index fluctuated and declined. The communication sector led the rise, and the coal sector led the fall. The market turnover was 1.64 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.6575%. The central bank's net investment in the open - market operation was 173.5 billion yuan [3][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production of carbonate lithium decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons. The demand is expected to increase, while the inventory increased by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons [4][20]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The investment value of A - shares is high in the long - term. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025 [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the price volatility of treasury bond futures may increase in the short term [3][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins declined. The consumption is in a relative off - season, and the cost support has weakened [13]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined. The supply is shrinking, and the market expects better results. Soda ash futures also declined, and the inventory is under pressure [14]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new rubber in domestic production areas is affected by rainfall, but the overall supply pressure is increasing, and the upward space is limited [16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: After the release of inflation data, gold and silver weakened. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, but the long - term driving force for gold still exists [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the low processing fee of concentrates and stable downstream demand [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and downstream demand is mixed [19]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong with fluctuations [22]. - **Steel**: The supply and demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure still exists, and the market focuses on the "anti - involution" policy expectation [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The July USDA report is neutral to bearish, but the demand for US soybeans in biodiesel may support the price, and the domestic market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report is neutral to bearish, but the strong demand in India may support the palm oil price, and the overall market is expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rose strongly. The market is still speculating on the freight rate space in August, and the focus is on the 10 - contract [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by Trump's tariff policies, but the market's sensitivity to it has decreased. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, and A - shares have high investment value in the medium and long term [3][9]. - Glass and soda ash are in the cycle of inventory digestion. The supply adjustment is deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - The prices of gold and silver may continue to be strong, but there are risks of Trump's threats being realized. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range, and zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [17][19][20]. - The prices of crude oil, methanol, and other energy - chemical products are affected by factors such as tariffs, supply - demand, and policies, with different trends [11][12]. - The prices of iron ore, steel, and other black commodities are expected to be strong in the short term, and the prices of coal and coke are affected by policies and demand [22][23][24]. - The prices of bean and rapeseed meal and oils are expected to be in a volatile pattern, and the price of shipping on the European container line is affected by market expectations [25][26][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key News - **International News**: The US regulatory authorities issued a blue - book on cryptocurrency custody. Trump will discuss tariffs with other countries and has announced new tariff policies [1][5]. - **Domestic News**: In the first half of 2025, China's foreign trade volume increased steadily, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports decreasing by 2.7%. The financial data in June were better than expected [6][7]. 3.2 Performance of External Markets - The S&P 500, T STOXX50, and other indices had different degrees of increase or decrease on July 14 compared with July 11. For example, the S&P 500 rose by 0.14%, and ICE Brent crude oil fell by 2.11% [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices rose, and the stock index fluctuated slightly. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to increase, and A - shares have high investment value [3][9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond prices fluctuated greatly. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the market risk preference has increased [10]. - **Energy - Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell at night. Trump's tariff policies and OPEC's production - increase plan have increased the uncertainty of oil prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The inventory of coastal methanol increased, and the short - term trend was slightly bullish [12]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins were in a consolidation phase. The cost support weakened, and attention should be paid to the supply contraction during the summer equipment maintenance [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded. The supply adjustment was deepening, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand digestion process [2][15]. - **Rubber**: The price of natural rubber was affected by climate and supply - demand. The short - term upward space was limited, and there might be a callback [16]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: The prices of gold and silver rose and then fell. The short - term trend was affected by Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price fell at night. The copper price might fluctuate within a range under the influence of multiple factors [18][19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The short - term zinc price might have wide - range fluctuations [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate decreased weekly, and the demand increased slightly. The overall market was in a volatile pattern [4][21]. - **Black Commodities** - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price was expected to be strong in the short term. The demand was supported, and the supply might increase in the second half of the year [22]. - **Steel**: The steel price was expected to be strong in the short term. The supply - demand contradiction was not significant, and the cost was rising [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were affected by policies and demand. The supply pressure still existed [24]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The prices of bean and rapeseed meal were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The US soybean production and demand data were adjusted, and the final inventory increased [25]. - **Oils**: The prices of oils were in a strong - side volatile pattern. The demand for palm oil was strong, and the overall market was in a volatile pattern [26]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price of shipping on the European container line was in a volatile pattern. The market was still gambling on the peak - season price space, and attention should be paid to the release of August shipping prices [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries, particularly focusing on tariff negotiations and their implications for various industries and markets [1][5]. Group 1: Tariff and Trade Negotiations - U.S. President Trump announced plans to negotiate tariffs with multiple countries, including the EU, and has already sent letters to over 20 national leaders regarding new tariffs set to take effect on August 1 [1]. - A 50% tariff on all copper imports to the U.S. was also announced, indicating a significant escalation in trade tensions [1]. Group 2: Key Commodities - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures have rebounded due to summer maintenance leading to supply contraction, with inventory decreasing by 970,000 heavy boxes to 57.34 million heavy boxes [2][15]. Soda ash inventory increased by 33,000 tons to 1.864 million tons, indicating a need for time to digest current stock levels [2][15]. - **Stock Indices**: U.S. stock indices saw slight fluctuations with a market turnover of 1.48 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 2.082 billion yuan to 1.862586 trillion yuan, suggesting a growing interest in long-term investments [3][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons, while inventory rose by 1,510 tons to 138,347 tons, indicating a mixed market sentiment with potential price fluctuations ahead [4][21]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - China's total goods trade for the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 2.7% [6]. - The People's Bank of China reported a 7.1% year-on-year increase in RMB loans, with the total social financing scale growing by 8.9% [8]. Group 4: Market Trends - **Bond Market**: The yield on 10-year government bonds rose to 1.668%, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan to maintain liquidity [10]. - **Energy Sector**: Oil prices are under pressure due to uncertainties surrounding global tariffs and production increases from OPEC, which may affect demand forecasts [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA report indicated a reduction in U.S. soybean planting area, which may impact future prices and market dynamics [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has declined, and the prices of finished products are showing a weak and volatile trend. The policy suggestion of "anti-involution and capacity reduction" has boosted market sentiment and driven short - term steel price increases, but the implementation of relevant policies remains to be verified. The implementation of Vietnam's anti - dumping policy on Chinese hot - rolled steel may suppress exports, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and the Politburo meeting in late July [3]. - Iron ore prices are in a wide - range volatile state in the short term, affected by factors such as seasonal changes in supply, iron water production decline, and macro expectations [6]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are fundamentally bearish, but in the short term, prices are more influenced by emotions and expectations. It is recommended that speculative positions remain on the sidelines and hedging positions look for opportunities to operate when the market rallies [9][10]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - surplus and demand - deficient situation. The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation, and the trading focus in July will be on macro and policy expectations [15]. - For glass, policy expectations have a strong impact on prices, and short positions should avoid and wait. For纯碱, the supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [17]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3063 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.065%) from the previous trading day. The number of registered warrants was 44,905 tons, a net increase of 8,464 tons. The position of the main contract was 2.168547 million lots, a net decrease of 28,783 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3191 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The number of registered warrants was 64,587 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract was 1.593691 million lots, a net increase of 8,136 lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The export pressure has increased due to Vietnam's anti - dumping policy. For rebar, both apparent supply and demand have increased, but the inventory clearance speed has slowed down. For hot - rolled coils, production has slightly increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has slightly accumulated [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 733.00 yuan/ton, up 0.27% (+2.00), with a position change of +7312 lots to 655,200 lots. The weighted position was 1.0841 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 724 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 34.36 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.48% [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The latest iron ore shipments have decreased seasonally, and the daily average pig iron production has decreased. The terminal demand is neutral, and the port inventory has changed little. The price is in a wide - range volatile state in the short term [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Price and Position Data**: On July 8, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.07% at 5650 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 120 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of silicon iron (SF509) closed down 0.26% at 5350 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5430 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 80 yuan/ton over the futures [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamental situation is bearish, but in the short term, prices are affected by emotions and expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative positions and look for hedging opportunities when the market rallies [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Position Data**: On July 8, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 2.11% at 8215 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 8500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 285 yuan/ton over the futures. The 421 market price was 9050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 35 yuan/ton over the futures [13]. - **Market Analysis**: It is in a supply - surplus and demand - deficient situation. The short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation, and the trading focus in July will be on macro and policy expectations [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: For glass, the spot price in Shahe was 1151 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and in Central China was 1030 yuan, unchanged. As of July 3, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.085 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 131,000 heavy boxes (-0.19%) from the previous period and an increase of 10.57% year - on - year. For soda ash, the spot price was 1168 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. As of July 7, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8481 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons (2.13%) from last Thursday [17]. - **Market Analysis**: For glass, policy expectations have a strong impact on prices, and short positions should avoid and wait. For soda ash, the supply is loose and the inventory pressure is large, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [17]