1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Rubber Industry - The supply of raw materials in Southeast Asian producing areas is at a low level throughout the year, and the shortage is extreme. The price of glue water has been continuously pushed up in the short term. The tapping rhythm in Yunnan, China, is normal, but the amount of new rubber in the initial stage is limited, and the global supply shortage cannot be alleviated in the short term. The upstream cost supports stock prices. However, as time goes by, the supply pressure will gradually appear. On the demand side, there is still moderate restocking imagination for some agents of un - price - increased brands at the end of the month, and the overall shipment is still supported to a certain extent. However, the terminal demand has no obvious positive guidance, and the market continues to digest inventory. It is expected that the rubber price will fluctuate in a narrow range, with an expected operating range of 15,500 - 17,500. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of the US - Iran conflict [1]. Crude Oil Industry - The control of the Strait of Hormuz and the security of the energy supply chain have not been alleviated. With the participation of the Houthi armed forces, the conflict has spread to the Red Sea and the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait. The main line of oil prices is geopolitical support + policy suppression. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on whether there is substantial progress in the negotiation and whether the Mandeb Strait will be blocked. If the situation continues to deteriorate or there are new variables, the crude oil supply will be in a substantial shortage in the near future, and the crude oil still has the momentum to continue to rise. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to the suppression of global inflation and the economy by high oil prices, the acceleration of energy substitution, and the continuous uncertainty brought about by geopolitical conflicts [2]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures opened higher and fell slightly at the end of the session. The spot was purchased on demand. The core driver of the current market comes from the supply gap caused by the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. The downstream demand is resilient, and the valuation is low globally. The export volume has increased, and the domestic and foreign prices have risen synchronously. On the supply side, the profit of coal - to - methanol remains good, but there are slightly more unexpected overhauls recently. In the port market, the geopolitical conflict in Iran has escalated again, and there are doubts about the recovery of shipping capacity. The port inventory is expected to decline significantly for the 05 contract. On the demand side, the downstream olefins are driven by the rising oil price, the profit of the inland coal - integrated plant has strengthened, and the demand for MTO in the port also has a warming expectation. Overall, the fundamentals of methanol have improved, but in a high - volatility market environment, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the risk of sharp unilateral fluctuations and the callback risk brought about by the easing of the geopolitical situation [9]. Urea Industry - On the 30th, the urea futures oscillated strongly, and the spot price remained stable. Some urea plants were shut down briefly this week, and the supply decreased slightly. Driven by the previous buying sentiment, the urea inventory was at a relatively low level, which supported the price. However, the supply pattern was still loose, and the daily output of the industry was at a high level of 21 - 220,000 tons. Coupled with the continuous release of reserve supplies, the market supply was still abundant. On the demand side, the agricultural demand entered the connection gap period and gradually weakened. The industrial downstream procurement was mostly cautious and purchased on demand. The overall demand was relatively flat. The market lacked a clear driving force for rise or fall, and it was expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract should focus on the range of 1,830 - 1,900, and pay attention to the progress of downstream demand and policy dynamics [4]. Caustic Soda and PVC Industry - **Caustic Soda**: On the 30th, the caustic soda futures fell sharply, and the spot price remained stable. The supply of caustic soda increased slightly this week, the number of overhaul devices was small, the industry's operating rate increased, and the profit increased significantly. The chlor - alkali enterprises actively increased the device load, and the inventory accumulated. The price of liquid chlorine also rose synchronously. The previous bullish sentiment in exports ebbed, which led to a sharp correction in the market, and negative sentiment gradually emerged. The operating rate of downstream alumina manufacturers has gradually increased, and the non - aluminum demand has improved, but the overall supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is still weak. After the sentiment ebbs, the market has declined. Without other driving factors, it is expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the short term. Attention should be paid to the cost support below [5]. - **PVC**: On the 30th, the PVC futures oscillated weakly, and the spot market maintained a weak range oscillation. There is no demand gap in Asia, especially in the Asian region. Affected by the large number of low - price exports in the early stage and the wait - and - see sentiment of foreign customers towards high prices, the recent export demand has been poor. The supply - demand contradiction in the domestic market has not been prominent. The non - cost - driven price increase resistance caused by the geopolitical influence in the early stage is relatively large, and the high - price sales of spot goods are difficult. The chemical sentiment has faded, and the PVC price has adjusted accordingly. Overall, the fundamentals of PVC have improved slightly, and the cost side has a large price increase. The price bottom has strong support. Affected by the ebb of the chemical commodity sentiment, it may be weakly adjusted in the short term. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual shutdown rhythm of the devices [5]. Glass and Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The spot price is mainly stable, and the transaction is average. On the supply side, many production lines were shut down for overhaul last week, and the overall supply decreased slightly. It is expected that the production lines will resume this week, and the load will increase. On the demand side, the downstream still purchases on a rigid - demand basis. The float glass is continuously reducing production capacity, and many production lines of photovoltaic glass were shut down last week, showing an overall weak trend. In terms of inventory, the in - plant inventory is basically the same as the previous period, and the de - stocking intensity has weakened. In terms of cost and profit, the profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) has decreased, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method has been slightly adjusted. As the spring plowing gradually ends, the profit of the combined - alkali method (double - ton) is expected to continue to decline. In the short term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is strengthened. At the same time, with the strong support of the current spot cost, it is expected that the soda ash will generally oscillate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and take profit on the 5 - 9 reverse spread [6]. - **Glass**: The spot market has average trading, and the spot price is mainly stable. On the supply side, a 600 - ton production line in Guizhou was shut down over the weekend, and it is expected that there will still be production lines for cold repair this week, and the output will continue to decline. On the demand side, the demand for deep - processing and low - e glass remains weak, and the downstream purchases as needed. In terms of inventory, the in - plant inventory is high year - on - year, and the enterprises have great pressure to de - stock. The fundamentals of supply and demand are weak. At the same time, the glass is currently close to par, and the support of FG605 at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range of about 1,030 is strong. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the future. If there is no improvement in downstream demand or de - stocking intensity, the price may decline further. Attention can be paid to the inventory and warehouse receipts, and it is recommended to wait and see [6]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The start - up of some Asian refineries has been substantially affected, the load of some domestic and foreign refineries has decreased, and combined with the planned overhaul of some devices, the supply of pure benzene is expected to decline. The prices of downstream products have risen actively, and the load has been maintained, so the supply - demand expectation of pure benzene has improved. It is reported that the United States intends to negotiate with Iran, but Iran is still tough, and it is expected that there will still be repetitions. The oil price fluctuates greatly at a high level. In the short term, pure benzene may fluctuate with the oil price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Strategically, it is recommended to wait and see, and shrink the spread between EB05 and BZ05 (currently 1,727) when it is high [7]. - **Styrene**: A set of devices of Zhejiang Petrochemical's overhaul has been postponed, and Ningxia Baofeng has restarted. Currently, the overall supply is maintained. On the demand side, although the downstream load has gradually recovered to a relatively high level, due to the sharp rise in raw material prices, the downstream has a strong resistance to high prices, and PS factories plan to reduce the load, and the high - price procurement is weak. The supply - demand of styrene has weakened month - on - month, but with the previous export shipments, the supply - demand of styrene is still tight. Recently, due to the reduction of supply caused by the reduction of refinery load, the price of raw material ethylene has risen sharply, and the profit of styrene has been continuously compressed. In the short term, the absolute price of styrene fluctuates with the oil price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. Strategically, it is the same as for pure benzene [7]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: As the Strait blockade time prolongs, the risk of raw material supply interruption for PX factories in Asia is increasing. Some refineries in other Asian countries have continued to reduce their loads, but some domestic devices have postponed their overhauls due to sufficient raw materials. Relatively speaking, the risk of supply interruption in China is slightly smaller. The downstream polyester has difficulty in cost transmission under high raw material prices, and some polyester factories have implemented production cuts with increasing intensity. In the short term, the supply and demand of PX are both weak, but the overall supply - demand expectation of PX in April is tight. Coupled with the current low valuation and the continuous geopolitical situation, the PX price still has support. Strategically, it is recommended to go long at a low position and pay attention to the oil price trend [11]. - **PTA**: Although the interruption of crude oil supply in the Middle East has had a substantial impact on Asian PX factories, the overall load of PTA has been maintained. However, affected by the high - price raw materials, the downstream polyester production and sales have been poor. In April, PTA is expected to have an inventory build - up, and the basis has been weak recently. The downstream cost transmission is not smooth, and some polyester factories have implemented production cuts with increasing intensity, and the demand side may drag down the raw materials. Overall, PTA has limited self - driving force in the short term, and the absolute price fluctuates with the cost side. Strategically, it is the same as for PX, and attention should be paid to the oil price trend [11]. - **MEG**: In the second quarter, the impact of the Middle East situation on ethylene glycol will continue to ferment, and the cost support of ethylene glycol is still strong. From the perspective of supply and demand, under the influence of the Middle East conflict, the main contradiction in the fundamentals in the second quarter is the significant decline in the domestic and foreign ethylene glycol supply. Many oil - based ethylene glycol devices have reduced their loads, and the domestic supply of ethylene glycol has decreased significantly in the second quarter. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly affects the transportation of goods from Iran, Kuwait, and the east coast of Saudi Arabia, so the import volume is expected to decline significantly in the second quarter, and the port inventory will enter the de - stocking channel. The de - stocking amplitude of ethylene glycol social inventory in the second quarter is considerable. Driven by the Middle East situation, the ethylene glycol price still has the momentum to rise in the second quarter. Strategically, before the restoration of oil transportation in the Middle East, EG still has the momentum to rise, but the market fluctuates greatly. Attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. It is recommended to buy EG call options lightly at a low position [11]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - term supply - demand of short - fiber has weakened month - on - month due to the increase in supply. The Middle East situation is repeated, the oil price remains high, the terminal is reluctant to follow the price increase, and the direct - spinning polyester short - fiber market is in a tug - of - war. The market is cautious and wait - and - see at a high level, and some short - fiber factories and downstream have the intention to moderately reduce production. In the short term, the short - fiber has weak self - driving force and mainly fluctuates with the raw materials. Attention should be paid to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission. Strategically, it is the same as for PX; when the PF disk processing fee is below 800, it is recommended to expand the spread [11]. - **Bottle - chip**: In April, with the warming of the weather and the limited long - term procurement of the downstream at the end of the first quarter this year, the demand is expected to increase in April. It is expected that there will be high - price rigid - demand restocking or concentrated low - price procurement of bottle - chips by the downstream. At the same time, affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, the supply of polyester raw materials is in short supply, and it is expected that the cost of crude oil and polyester raw materials will remain high in April, and the supply of bottle - chips is limited. Therefore, the supply - demand of bottle - chips in April is expected to be tight, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. Strategically, the unilateral operation of PR is the same as for PTA; it is expected that the processing fee of the PR main contract disk will be strong, and it is recommended to buy PR call options lightly at a low position [11]. Polyolefin Industry - The prices of LLDPE and PP futures fell on the 30th. The upstream price was inverted, the market was priced by futures - spot traders, and the basis strengthened slightly passively. The trading on Monday was generally neutral. LLDPE and PP continue to have a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand. PP is de - stocking, and PE inventory is accumulating. Dynamically, the supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, expected decline in imports, and increase in exports makes the end - of - contract inventory of the 05 contract at a low level. Geopolitical premium and cost support, as well as the reduction in the supply side, still dominate. In April, refineries have shifted from preventive production cuts to substantial production cuts, and raw material interruption and high - price procurement have pushed up costs. The domestic device overhauls and the contraction of overseas imports have further solidified the already tight supply pattern. The core is the underlying logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" that dominates the pricing power. It is expected that the spot will tighten and the basis will strengthen in April [12]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Rubber Industry - **Spot Price and Basis**: The price of Yunnan Guofu full - latex decreased by 0.30% to 16,350 yuan/ton; the full - latex basis decreased by 80 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton; the price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 0.64% to 15,800 yuan/ton; the non - standard price difference increased by 8.64% to - 740 yuan/ton; the FOB intermediate price of cup rubber in the international market increased by 1.28% to 20.50 Thai baht/kg; the FOB intermediate price of glue water in the international market increased by 2.58% to 79.50; the price of natural rubber lumps in Xishuangbanna Prefecture increased by 1.49% to 13,600 yuan/ton; the price of natural rubber glue water in Xishuangbanna Prefecture increased by 2.07% to 14,800 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 2.61% to - 745 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 4.94% to 770 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 44.44% to - 55 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In January, Thailand's production increased by 11.09% to 549.00 (unit not specified); Indonesia's production decreased by 14.90% to 161.10 (ten tons); India's production decreased by 3.48% to 108.10; in December, China's production decreased by 84.50 to 51.20; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles decreased slightly to 78.24%; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires for automobiles increased slightly to 70.75%; in December, the domestic tire production increased by 4.65% to 10,656.3; in February, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased by 12.40% to 5,607.0 (ten thousand pieces); in February, the total import volume of natural rubber decreased by 28.46% to 46.15; in February, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) decreased by 25.00% to 60.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - The market is in a strong cost - support, supply - contraction expectation, and weak real - demand game. Prices are expected to maintain high - level wide - range fluctuations. If the geopolitical tension persists, the price is likely to rise, and chemical products may increase more strongly than crude oil. The 05 contract is expected to perform well [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the short - term market rise is due to the optimistic expectation from the geopolitical conflict. The supply is decreasing, and there is a possibility of price increase, but beware of the market decline when the situation eases. For PVC, the cost is rising, the supply is slightly increasing, the demand is improving, and the price has an upward trend in the short term, but also beware of cost collapse [2]. Urea - The urea spot price is relatively stable near the guidance price, and the futures price fluctuates greatly affected by energy - chemical commodities. The fundamentals change little, and the supply pressure remains. The price will follow the trend of crude - chemical products and may be strong in the short term [3]. PX, PTA, MEG, etc. - The Middle - East situation affects the supply of PX, leading to a decline in PTA load. MEG has a high probability of de - stocking in March - April. The prices of polyester products are affected by oil prices and fluctuate greatly. Strategies such as long positions plus put options can be considered [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. Glass has a good de - stocking situation, and the price center has slightly increased. It is recommended to wait and see and consider low - buying after the macro is stable [5]. Crude Oil - In the short term, the oil price maintains the pattern of "policy control + geopolitical support". If the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues for 4 weeks, the supply shortage may intensify, and the oil price may still have strong upward momentum. It is recommended to go long on dips [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve. The price follows the oil price. For styrene, the supply is high, and the profit is under pressure. Both can consider long positions plus put options strategies [9]. Methanol - The current price is mainly dominated by supply interruption expectations and risk sentiment. The follow - up trend depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict. The 05 - end inventory is expected to be moderately low [10]. LPG - No overall view on LPG is clearly stated in the report. Natural Rubber - The new rubber supply is gradually released, and the raw material price is strong. The demand has uncertainties. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16500 - 17500 [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 prices all increased on March 13 compared to March 12, with L2605 up 2.19%, L2609 up 2.66%, PP2605 up 3.61%, and PP2609 up 4.09% [1]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE device operating rate decreased by 5.20% to 82.39%, while the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 18.20% to 33.83%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.31% to 57.54 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.56% to 66.29 million tons. PP device operating rate decreased by 5.95% to 69.98%, and the powder - material operating rate increased by 14.53% to 31.35 [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, East - China PVC (both calcium - carbide and ethylene methods), and SH2605, SH2609, V2605, V2609 futures all increased on March 13 compared to March 12 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 1.3% to 85.3%, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 0.3% to 81.4%. The downstream demand for caustic soda and PVC is improving [2]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The urea futures prices increased, and the spot price was relatively stable. The MA2605 closed at 2805 on March 13, up 2.90% from March 12 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily output decreased by 1.36% to 21.82 million tons, and the operating rate decreased by 1.36% to 92.68% [3]. PX, PTA, MEG, etc. - **Price Changes**: WTI crude oil (April) increased by 3.1% to 98.71, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 8.5% to 1060, and CFR China PX decreased by 2.4% to 1274 on March 13 compared to March 12 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Asian PX operating rate decreased by 7.6% to 76.9%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 80.1%. The MEG inventory decreased, and the de - stocking expectation in March - April is strong [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: The glass 2605 and 2609 futures prices increased on March 13 compared to March 12, with 2605 up 1.98% and 2609 up 1.63%. The soda ash 2605 and 2609 futures prices also increased, with 2605 up 1.67% and 2609 up 0.98% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash operating rate increased by 0.27% to 87.00%, and the float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.08% to 14.69 million tons [5]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: Brent crude oil increased by 2.67% to 103.14, WTI crude oil increased by 3.11% to 98.71, and SC crude oil increased by 5.58% to 754.50 on March 13 compared to March 12 [8]. - **Market Situation**: The shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to a very low level. The oil price is affected by geopolitics and policy control [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price Changes**: The price of Brent crude oil (May) increased by 2.7% to 103.14, and the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 1.1% to 1080 on March 13 compared to March 12. The price of styrene in East - China spot increased by 0.6% to 10040 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand situation of styrene is expected to slightly de - stock in March [9]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The MA2605 closed at 2805 on March 13, up 2.90% from March 12. The MA2609 closed at 2672, up 3.97% [10]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 5.13% to 52.321 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 9.05% to 131.3 million tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased slightly by 0.07% to 76.27 [10]. LPG - **Price Changes**: The main PG2604 increased by 1.65% to 5734 on March 13 compared to March 12, and the PG2605 increased by 1.60% to 5602 [11]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 10.50% to 24.9, and the port inventory decreased by 1.52% to 227 million tons. The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 1.76% to 81.35 [11]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: The price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 2.59% to 16900 on March 13 compared to March 12 [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The new rubber supply in Yunnan and Hainan is gradually released, and the overseas production area is in the off - season. The demand of tire enterprises has uncertainties [12].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the US and Iran, are driving up oil prices and strengthening the energy and chemical sectors, while the market is adjusting to these developments [1]. Group 1: Oil Market - The Middle East situation remains tense, with the US military striking Iranian oil facilities, leading to increased oil prices due to geopolitical risk premiums. However, the market has already priced in the current level of conflict, suggesting that oil prices may stabilize at high levels in the short term [2][13]. - As of March 5, domestic methanol production facilities operated at an average load of 77.36%, a decrease of 0.88% from the previous period but an increase of 5.72% year-on-year. Coastal methanol inventories stood at 1.4133 million tons, reflecting a 1.04% increase from February 26 and a 35.76% increase year-on-year [2][15]. Group 2: Shipping and Freight - The European shipping index (SCFI) reported a rise of $166 per TEU to $1618, indicating a potential increase in freight rates for the second half of March. However, the market is expected to return to seasonal pricing as geopolitical impacts on freight rates diminish [3][30]. - Maersk and MSC are adjusting their pricing strategies, with Maersk focusing on securing cargo amidst a traditional low season, while MSC has slightly increased rates [3][30]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market experienced a pullback, with a total market turnover of 2.42 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 18.278 billion yuan, indicating a shift from expectation-driven to earnings-driven market dynamics as companies begin to disclose annual and quarterly reports [4][11]. - The market is expected to transition from a broad rally to a selective alpha phase, favoring industry leaders with strong earnings while weaker stocks may continue to struggle [4][11]. Group 4: International News - Japan plans to release 80 million barrels of oil from its reserves starting March 16 to mitigate rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East. This is the largest release since the establishment of its national oil reserve system in 1978 [7]. - The Japanese government aims to stabilize gasoline prices by providing subsidies to oil wholesalers, reflecting the country's heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports [7]. Group 5: Domestic News - The State Council's food safety office reported a 99.37% compliance rate for major food products in China, indicating a stable improvement in food safety standards over the past four years [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current global market is dominated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the strong stance of Iran's new leadership threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, leading to significant adjustments in oil supply forecasts and a surge in commodity prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Commodities - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly lowered its oil supply growth expectations, labeling the situation as the "largest supply disruption in history," which has resulted in oil prices soaring over 10% [1] - The geopolitical risks are not limited to energy but are also affecting agricultural products through trade routes for palm oil and fertilizers, exacerbating global inflation uncertainties [1] - The U.S. is reportedly planning to temporarily waive the Jones Act to increase domestic transportation capacity in response to rising oil prices [1] Group 2: Key Commodities and Market Reactions - Oil prices continue to rise, with the U.S. President indicating that military actions against Iran will not conclude soon, and the G7 energy ministers have not reached an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves [2][12] - The European shipping index (EC) has increased by 3.07%, indicating challenges in maintaining pricing amid traditional low demand seasons, with Maersk and MSC adjusting their rates [3][29] - U.S. stock indices have declined, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan, as the focus shifts from broad market gains to selective investments in companies with strong earnings [3][10] Group 3: Financial and Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China is committed to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth, with recent operations indicating a focus on liquidity [7] - The U.S. oil inventory has decreased by 1.7 million barrels as of March 6, 2026, reflecting ongoing supply constraints [13] - The market is expected to transition from a phase driven by expectations to one driven by actual earnings, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and improved performance [10]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a possibility judgment for various varieties, with "cautiously bullish" for many including stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), bonds (TF, TS), crude oil, etc., and "cautiously bearish" for some like rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The market focuses on China's policy support and global commodity fluctuations. Domestically, there are policies like GDP growth expectations and a national - level merger fund, along with a moderately loose monetary policy. Internationally, geopolitical conflicts increase commodity uncertainties. Different commodities have their own influencing factors and price trends. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Chief Comment - The market focuses on China's policy support and global commodity fluctuations. Domestically, the NDRC expects GDP growth to exceed 6 trillion yuan this year and a national - level merger fund is set up. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Internationally, geopolitical conflicts intensify commodity uncertainties, with energy and precious metals affected. [1] 3.2. Key Varieties Crude Oil - Due to the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed, cutting off oil supply and pushing up crude - oil futures. There are a series of supply disruptions and storage crises, and some countries have cut production. [2][12] Gold - Short - term: The Fed's lower - than - expected interest - rate cut expectations and a stronger US dollar suppress precious metals. Long - term: Multiple factors like geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, and de - dollarization support the upward trend of gold. Silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall trend with larger fluctuations. [3][18] Methanol - Methanol night - trading rose 5.43%. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin (methanol) plants decreased, and the overall methanol plant operating load decreased slightly compared to the previous period but increased compared to the same period last year. Coastal methanol inventory is at a medium - high level historically and is rising. [4][13] 3.3. Variety Views - A table shows the possibility judgment of "cautiously bearish" or "cautiously bullish" for various varieties, but it is a possibility judgment rather than a definite one. [6] 3.4. Main News Focus of the Day International News - Israel warns about Iran's leadership change, threatening those involved in the election. [7] Domestic News - At a press conference, officials from the Ministry of Finance, the central bank, and the NDRC announced more active fiscal policies, interest - rate regulation, and the establishment of a national - level merger fund. The central bank will use multiple monetary policy tools. [7] Industry News - China's gold reserves increased for the 16th consecutive month in February. [7] 3.5. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the price, change amount, and change rate of various overseas market varieties such as the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. from March 5th to March 6th. [8] 3.6. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial Stock Indices - US stock indices fell, while domestic stock indices rebounded. As annual and first - quarter reports are released, the market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". In the long run, stock indices will return to a structural market. [9] Bonds - Bonds fluctuated narrowly. The central bank's net reverse - repurchase withdrawal this week did not significantly tighten the money market. Overseas factors and domestic policies support bond - futures prices in the short term. [10][11] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The Persian - Gulf conflict disrupts oil supply, leading to a significant increase in crude - oil futures prices. [12] Methanol - Methanol prices rose at night. The operating load of related plants decreased, and coastal inventory increased. [4][13] Rubber - Geopolitical conflicts drive up the price of crude oil, which in turn supports the price of rubber. The supply is seasonally low, and the demand is expected to recover after the holiday, so the rubber price is expected to be strong. [14] Polyolefins - Polyolefins continued the bullish trend on Friday. The increase in international crude - oil prices boosts polyolefins. [15] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures closed up, with inventory increasing after the holiday. Soda - ash futures rebounded, and the supply is high with inventory accumulation, facing inventory - digestion pressure. [16][17] Metals Precious Metals - Short - term suppression and long - term upward trend due to various factors such as US employment data, inflation, and de - dollarization. [3][18] Copper - Copper prices fell at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and downstream demand is mixed. The price may fluctuate in a range. [19] Zinc - Zinc prices rose at night. Concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and downstream demand is mixed. The price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals. [20] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rose. The conflict affects aluminum production and transportation in the Middle East, and the long - term low inventory and supply constraints support the price. [21] Black Metals Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply increased, and demand weakened in the short term. However, with the resumption of work, the demand is expected to improve, and the price may be affected by geopolitical conflicts. [22] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal prices were strong at night. Brazil's soybean production forecast was lowered, and supply disruptions in the Middle East supported US soybean prices, so the domestic protein - meal price is expected to be strongly volatile. [23] Oils and Fats - Oil prices continued to be strong at night. Malaysia's palm - oil inventory is expected to decline, and geopolitical risks and bio - fuel expectations support the price, which is expected to remain high and volatile. [24] Pigs - The pig market is weak, with sufficient supply and weak consumption. The short - term price is expected to continue to bottom out. [25] Shipping Index Container Shipping to Europe - The EC index fell on Friday. The SCFI European - line price rose slightly. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East affect the shipping market, and the freight rate will enter a period of greater volatility. [26]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations. The short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are unlikely to have a trend reversal and will likely remain in a weak, range - bound oscillation. The black sector is in a weak state in the overall commodity market and is likely to be a short - term short - allocation choice [2][16] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3075 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.130%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 9328 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 1.8373 million lots, down 2236 lots. The Tianjin aggregated price of rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3190 yuan/ton, both with no change. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3209 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.09%). The registered warehouse receipts were 472215 tons, up 28821 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.4301 million lots, down 5552 lots. The Lecong aggregated price of hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton, with no change, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3230 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] Strategy View - Macroscopically, policies support infrastructure and manufacturing investment but have limited incremental impact on steel demand. Fundamentally, hot - rolled coil demand has declined, with high inventory. Rebar supply and demand are rising, but inventory is accumulating rapidly. The short - term core contradiction is inventory digestion and demand verification, and prices are likely to oscillate weakly in a range [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 759.00 yuan/ton, up 0.93% (+7.00). The open interest changed by - 26804 lots to 498800 lots. The weighted open interest was 909700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 757 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.33 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.52% [4] Strategy View - Supply: Overseas ore shipments fluctuate slightly at a high level. Australian shipments decreased, Brazilian shipments increased, and non - mainstream shipments rose. Near - end arrivals are decreasing. Demand: The average daily hot - metal output decreased by 56900 tons to 2275900 tons. Some areas had blast furnace overhauls due to production restrictions. Steel mill profitability declined. Inventory: Port inventory was basically flat, and steel mill inventory continued to decline. Prices are expected to oscillate [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 5, the manganese silicon main contract (SM605) closed down 0.46% at 6092 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 2 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF605) closed up 0.17% at 5828 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot price was 6150 yuan/ton, with a basis of 322 yuan/ton [8] Strategy View - Manganese silicon's supply is loose with high inventory and weak downstream demand, but these factors are mostly priced in. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand is basically balanced with some improvement. Future market drivers include the overall black market trend, cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contraction for ferrosilicon [10] Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 5, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) closed up 0.77% at 1105.5 yuan/ton. The Shanxi low - sulfur main coking coal spot price was 1487.1 yuan/ton, with a basis of 189.5 yuan/ton. The coke main contract (J2605) closed up 0.27% at 1676.5 yuan/ton. The Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke spot price was 1470 yuan/ton, with a basis of 49 yuan/ton [12] Strategy View - After the holiday, downstream de - stocking and coal mine production resumption led to weak prices. In the short - term, demand is restricted until mid - April. In the long - term, the commodity bull market may continue, but the black sector is weak. Coking coal may rise from June to October [15][16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The industrial silicon main contract (SI2605) closed at 8565 yuan/ton, up 0.59% (+50). The weighted open interest changed by - 21006 lots to 393493 lots. The polysilicon main contract (PS2605) closed at 42280 yuan/ton, up 0.19% (+80). The weighted open interest changed by - 1141 lots to 58509 lots [18][20] Strategy View - Industrial silicon supply is expected to increase slightly in March, and demand may improve marginally, resulting in a supply - demand increase pattern. Polysilicon has high inventory and weak feedback, and its prices are expected to be under pressure [19][21] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1055 yuan/ton, up 1.64% (+17). The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 79.637 million cases, up 4.77%. The soda ash main contract closed at 1225 yuan/ton, up 1.83% (+22). The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.9472 million tons, up 4.77% [23][25] Strategy View - Glass: There are rumors of production line cold - repairs. Demand is slow to recover, and inventory is high. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 1015 - 1100 yuan/ton. Soda ash: There are rumors of production line overhauls. Demand is slow to release, and prices are expected to oscillate narrowly in the range of 1160 - 1270 yuan/ton [24][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. Core Views Polyolefins - The spot market of polyolefins was strong, with upstream ex - factory prices up by 400 yuan/ton. The Middle East geopolitical situation pushed up international oil prices, boosting the market from the cost side. The supply of polyethylene was at a high level, and the losses of oil - based and naphtha - based production routes increased. The resumption of PDH units of polypropylene was slow due to planned maintenance in March and rising raw material prices. The demand side was affected by the Spring Festival, with downstream factory operating rates at a seasonal low. The industry profit was in a historically low range, but the market had strong expectations for post - holiday restocking demand. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of cost support and the actual recovery of downstream operating rates [1]. Methanol - The methanol futures continued to rise and hit the daily limit. The Middle East conflict restricted Iranian methanol exports, leading to concerns about global supply disruptions. Domestically, the operating rate remained high, but imports were affected by the conflict, and the March arrival volume would decline significantly. The demand side was weak, with poor olefin demand at ports and delayed start - up of new MTO units. The port inventory was at a medium - high level, with expectations of destocking. The current price was driven by geopolitical sentiment, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of the conflict and the port destocking rhythm [4]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot price remained stable. The daily production of urea was close to 220,000 tons, with sufficient short - term supply, and the holiday inventory accumulation put pressure on the price. The agricultural fertilizer demand continued to advance, while the industrial demand was average. Affected by the war, international urea prices rose significantly, which might drive up the domestic urea market, but the increase might be limited under the supply guarantee policy and high supply. In the short term, the urea price was expected to remain high, and the main contract was expected to be in the range of 1800 - 1900. Attention should be paid to downstream demand and inventory accumulation [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - The caustic soda futures fluctuated strongly, and the spot price was stable. The supply was expected to increase as downstream chlorine - consuming industries resumed work, increasing inventory pressure. The demand from the alumina industry was stable, and non - aluminum demand improved. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali enterprises was repaired, and the industry load was expected to increase. The short - term market was expected to fluctuate and adjust. - The PVC futures fluctuated higher, and the spot price rose. The cost of bulk commodities was pushed up by the geopolitical conflict. The PVC supply remained high, domestic demand was normal, and foreign trade exports faced risks. The cost transmission from crude oil - ethylene - PVC was uncertain, and the short - term PVC price was expected to continue to rise, but the increase was uncertain due to fundamental and long - term uncertainties [7]. LPG - The LPG futures prices rose, with the main contract PG2603 up 3.67%. The Middle East geopolitical situation affected the LPG market. The refinery inventory ratio and port inventory increased. The upstream refinery operating rate remained stable, while the downstream PDH operating rate decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical factors on the LPG market [8]. Natural Rubber - The supply side had cost support as overseas raw material prices continued to rise, and Thailand's rubber production decreased in January. The demand side was affected by the Middle East situation, with shipping to the Middle East suspended, increasing export resistance. The demand side dragged down the rubber price, and it was recommended to leave long positions and consider going long again around 16000 [10]. Glass and Soda Ash - The soda ash futures fluctuated weakly and rose at the end. The supply side had high - level production, and the demand side was mainly in a wait - and - see state. The inventory increased significantly. The fundamentals of supply exceeding demand continued, and it was recommended to short at high prices or wait and see, with a reference price around 1200. - The glass futures fluctuated weakly and rose at the end. The supply side had low - level production, and the demand side was affected by bad weather and environmental protection policies, with delayed resumption of work. The inventory increased seasonally. It was recommended to short at high prices or wait and see, with a reference high point around 1075, and pay attention to macro and inventory changes [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene was expected to decrease due to the impact of geopolitical factors on refinery operations and maintenance plans. The downstream styrene industry had good profits, and the demand was strong in the short term. However, due to high port inventory and import pressure, the price of pure benzene followed the fluctuations of oil prices and downstream styrene. It was recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and short the EB - BZ spread at high levels. - The styrene industry had good profits, and the factory load increased. The supply in March was expected to increase slightly, and the demand was expected to pick up after the holiday. The short - term styrene price was expected to be strong, and it was recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and short the EB04 - BZ04 spread at high levels [14]. Crude Oil - The crude oil prices rose significantly. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran increased the risk premium of crude oil. If the risk continued to spread or the Strait of Hormuz was blocked for a long time, the oil price would continue to rise; if the conflict eased, the oil price would face the risk of a premium pull - back. The freight rate increase led to a rise in the SC futures delivery cost, and the domestic premium increased. It was recommended to hold long positions cautiously [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply was expected to decrease due to refinery maintenance and geopolitical factors, and the demand from downstream PTA units increased. The short - term PX price was expected to be strong, and it was recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and pay attention to oil price trends. - The PTA load increased after the holiday, but the inventory was expected to increase in February. The PTA processing margin was compressed, and the short - term PTA price was driven by the cost side. It was recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and pay attention to oil price trends. - The supply of ethylene glycol was expected to decrease in March, and the demand was expected to pick up seasonally. It was recommended to go long on the EG5 - 9 spread at low levels. - The short - fiber market was weak in both supply and demand. The short - term short - fiber price followed the raw material price, and it was recommended to pay attention to the cost transmission to the downstream. - The supply of polyester bottle chips was expected to increase in March, and the demand was expected to be weak. The bottle chip price followed the cost side, and the processing margin was expected to decline. It was recommended to short the PR main - contract processing margin at high levels and buy call options at low levels [18]. Summary by Directory Polyolefins - **Prices**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all rose on March 3, with increases of 2.99%, 1.58%, 3.22%, and 2.12% respectively. The spot prices of East China PP拉丝 and North China LDPE also increased, with increases of 4.35% and 4.41% respectively [1]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise inventories increased significantly, with increases of 68.66% and 89.14% respectively. The social inventory of PE also increased by 12.65% [1]. - **Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 7.98%. The PP device operating rate decreased slightly, while the powder operating rate increased by 9.18%, and the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 30.3% [1]. Methanol - **Prices**: MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices rose on March 3, with increases of 8.12% and 3.84% respectively. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan Luoyang, and Port Taicang also increased [4]. - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory all increased, with increases of 57.30%, 1.01%, and 11.82% respectively [4]. - **Operating Rates**: The domestic upstream operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas upstream operating rate increased by 6.98%. The downstream MTO device operating rate remained unchanged, and the formaldehyde operating rate increased by 24.12% [4]. Urea - **Prices**: The urea futures fluctuated and rose, and the spot price remained stable. The main contract closed at 1819 yuan/ton, up 0.11% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily production of urea was close to 220,000 tons, and the short - term supply was sufficient. The agricultural fertilizer demand continued to advance, while the industrial demand was average [6]. - **Inventory**: The domestic urea factory inventory and port inventory increased, with increases of 14.13% and 4.82% respectively [6]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: The prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and ethylene - based PVC increased on March 3, with increases of 1.1% and 2.0% respectively. The caustic soda price remained stable [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of caustic soda was expected to increase as downstream chlorine - consuming industries resumed work, and the demand from the alumina industry was stable. The PVC supply remained high, and domestic demand was normal, while foreign trade exports faced risks [7]. - **Inventory**: The caustic soda factory inventory increased by 22.1%, and the PVC upstream factory inventory and total social inventory decreased slightly [7]. LPG - **Prices**: The LPG futures prices rose, with the main contract PG2603 up 3.67%. The spot prices of South China civil gas and deliverable spot also increased [8]. - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery inventory ratio and port inventory increased, with increases of 11.94% and 5.95% respectively [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream refinery operating rate remained stable, while the downstream PDH operating rate decreased slightly [8]. Natural Rubber - **Prices**: The price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber increased by 0.30%, and the full - latex basis increased by 103.37% [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply side had cost support, and Thailand's rubber production decreased in January. The demand side was affected by the Middle East situation, with shipping to the Middle East suspended, increasing export resistance [10]. - **Inventory**: The bonded area inventory increased by 1.82%, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 0.40% [10]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Prices**: The glass and soda ash futures prices rose on March 3. The glass 2605 and 2609 closing prices increased by 1.05% and 1.39% respectively, and the soda ash 2605 and 2609 closing prices increased by 2.53% and 1.92% respectively [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash supply was at a high level, and the demand was mainly in a wait - and - see state. The glass supply was at a low level, and the demand was affected by bad weather and environmental protection policies [13]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory and soda ash factory inventory increased significantly, with increases of 37.32% and 19.29% respectively [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR China pure benzene increased on March 3, with increases of 4.7%, 4.7%, and 5.1% respectively. The prices of styrene East China spot and EB futures also increased [14]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory decreased slightly, and the styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 11.1% [14]. - **Operating Rates**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged, and the domestic pure benzene, hydrogenated benzene, and styrene operating rates increased [14]. Crude Oil - **Prices**: Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil prices rose on March 3, with increases of 4.71%, 4.67%, and 10.06% respectively [15]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 all changed significantly [15]. - **Outlook**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran increased the risk premium of crude oil. The oil price was affected by geopolitical factors, and it was recommended to hold long positions cautiously [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha increased. The prices of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY also increased [18]. - **Inventory**: The MEG port inventory increased by 2.0% [18]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products all changed to varying degrees [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black - series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it is likely to maintain a range - bound and weakly - centered operation, and no trending market has formed yet. Attention should be paid to the actual recovery strength of sheet demand, policy trends during the Two Sessions, and possible marginal adjustments to the "dual - carbon" policy after the Spring Festival [2]. - For iron ore, after the end of the weather influence, overseas supply has recovered. With high inventory suppressing price increases and structural issues to be resolved, while iron - water production on the demand side has recovered well. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly and steadily. Attention should be paid to the start of domestic terminal demand and policy guidance during the important March meeting [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, in the long - term, the view that the commodity bulls will continue is maintained. In the short term, the market may enter a period of oscillation and volatility reduction. Future market - leading factors include the direction of the black sector, cost - push from manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment, and supply contraction in the ferrosilicon segment [9][10]. - For coking coal and coke, in the long - term, the view that the commodity bulls will continue is maintained. In the short term, the market may enter a period of oscillation and volatility reduction. Coking coal prices are not strongly catalyzed in the short term, and there is a risk of a phased price correction in March - May. However, it is expected to have a relatively smooth upward market from June - October [16]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side is contracting, and the demand side is weakening. If the northwest large - scale plants resume production as planned in March, the price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the external impact of coal - coke trends [19]. - For polysilicon, supply continues to decrease, and there is a marginal improvement in supply - demand, with a slight expected reduction in high inventory. The spot price center has moved down, and the futures market is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to subsequent demand feedback and spot prices [21]. - For glass, the real - estate policy has led to a slight improvement in the real - estate and building - materials sectors, but the rebound is limited. The spot market is mainly driven by rigid demand, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [24]. - For soda ash, the supply side maintains a high - level operation, the demand side is weak, and the market is expected to continue a weakly - stable oscillation in the short term [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products 3.1.1. Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3063 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton (- 0.42%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 19,597 tons, with no change from the previous day. The main - contract position was 1.9524 million lots, a decrease of 36,289 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3130 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3210 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3218 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 350,770 tons, an increase of 1765 tons. The main - contract position was 1.4928 million lots, a decrease of 8403 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong and Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, both with no change [1]. 3.1.2. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market declined yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products had a phased technical rebound after the previous decline. The "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" for the real - estate market is expected to boost the real - estate market. Rebar shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and hot - rolled coils have a relatively high inventory. In general, the black - series is in a bottom - game stage, and in the short term, it is likely to maintain a range - bound and weakly - centered operation [2]. Iron Ore 3.2.1. Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 748.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.53% (- 4.00), and the position increased by 12,089 lots to 540,600 lots. The weighted position was 935,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 750 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.22 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.93%. Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the important national meeting in 2026, from March 4th to March 11th [4]. 3.2.2. Strategy Viewpoints - On the supply side, after the elimination of weather disturbances during the Spring Festival, overseas ore shipments have returned to the same - period high. The shipments from Australia have significantly recovered, and those from Brazil have slightly increased. The shipments from non - mainstream countries have rebounded month - on - month. The near - end arrivals have continued to decline. On the demand side, the daily average pig - iron production has increased to 233,280 tons (from February 12th to February 25th). Some blast furnaces were scheduled to resume production before the Spring Festival, and most of the blast - furnace overhauls started in late February. The profitability of steel mills has slightly increased. During the important meeting, pig - iron production is expected to be briefly affected. In terms of inventory, port inventory has returned to the accumulation stage, and the inventory of steel mills has significantly decreased during the holiday, with the imported - ore inventory of steel mills falling to a low level. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly and steadily [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon 3.3.1. Market Information - On February 26th, affected by market rumors, the price of manganese silicon increased significantly, driving a certain increase in ferrosilicon. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed up 2.89% at 5918 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, converted to the futures price of 5890 yuan/ton, a increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a discount of 28 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed up 0.95% at 5538 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and at a premium of 212 yuan/ton to the futures [8]. 3.3.2. Strategy Viewpoints - In the long - term, the view that the commodity bulls will continue is maintained. In the short term, the market may enter a period of oscillation and volatility reduction. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is still not ideal, but most of these factors have been factored into the price. The supply - demand structure of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement. Future market - leading factors include the direction of the black sector, cost - push from manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment, and supply contraction in the ferrosilicon segment. Attention should be paid to possible sudden situations in the manganese - ore segment and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Coking Coal and Coke 3.4.1. Market Information - On February 26th, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 3.20% at 1090.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1533.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.8 yuan/ton; the price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1270 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1197 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 1.79% at 1644.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1480 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1550 yuan/ton, with no change [12]. 3.4.2. Strategy Viewpoints - Last week, the prices of coking coal and coke weakened. On the one hand, as the Spring Festival approached, the downstream terminal replenishment ended, leading to a decline in demand and restricting prices. On the other hand, the market lacked confidence in the downstream steel - product terminal demand after the Spring Festival, and some long - position funds "fled" due to the need for pre - holiday position - closing and risk - avoidance. In the long - term, the view that the commodity bulls will continue is maintained. In the short term, the market may enter a period of oscillation and volatility reduction. The uncertainty in the US - Iran situation during the Spring Festival has led to a rebound in energy prices, which may have a positive impact on coal prices. In the short term, the upward catalysis for coking - coal prices is not strong, and there is a risk of a phased price correction from March to May. However, coking coal is expected to have a relatively smooth upward market from June to October [14][15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon 3.5.1. Market Information - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% (- 95). The weighted - contract position increased by 14,625 lots to 441,671 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of the main contract was 815 yuan/ton for 553 and 515 yuan/ton for 421 [18]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 46315 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.76% (- 1315). The weighted - contract position increased by 1480 lots to 65,703 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, with no change; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.75 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1 yuan/kg. The basis of the main contract was 5685 yuan/ton [20]. 3.5.2. Strategy Viewpoints - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon oscillated downward yesterday. On the supply side, in February, a large - scale plant in the northwest shut down half of its production, and all production enterprises in Sichuan shut down. The industry's operating rate declined, and the supply side continued to contract. On the demand side, the production schedule of polysilicon declined in February, and a leading enterprise has been shut down since January and remained so in February. The operating rates of organic silicon and silicon - aluminum alloy were weakly stable, and the overall demand for industrial silicon weakened. If the northwest large - scale plants resume production as planned in March, the price is expected to remain weak. Attention should be paid to the external impact of coal - coke trends [19]. - **Polysilicon**: In terms of supply - demand, a leading enterprise maintained a full - scale shutdown in February, and the supply continued to decrease. The production schedule of silicon wafers is expected to remain stable, and there is a marginal improvement in supply - demand, with a slight expected reduction in high inventory in the silicon - material segment. The prices of battery cells and components have increased due to pre - holiday policies and cost - push, but the silicon - wafer segment is still in a state of low prices and high inventory. The spot price center of polysilicon has moved down after the Spring Festival, and the trading is light. In terms of policy expectations, anti - involution is expected to support the price, and the full cost serves as a price - support reference. The futures position and liquidity of polysilicon have fallen to a relatively low level since listing, and the futures market is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to subsequent demand feedback and spot prices [21]. Glass and Soda Ash 3.6.1. Market Information - **Glass**: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1058 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.56% (- 6). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1050 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1110 yuan, with no change. On February 26th, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 76.008 million cases, an increase of 20.656 million cases (+ 37.32%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 11,202 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 38,948 lots [23]. - **Soda Ash**: On Thursday at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1191 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe was 1151 yuan, with no change. On February 26th, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.8944 million tons, an increase of 306,400 tons (+ 37.32%), including 895,900 tons of heavy - soda ash, an increase of 139,500 tons, and 998,500 tons of light - soda ash, an increase of 166,900 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders decreased their long positions by 13,133 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders decreased their short positions by 4607 lots [25]. 3.6.2. Strategy Viewpoints - **Glass**: The real - estate policy in Shanghai on the 25th has led to a slight improvement in the real - estate and building - materials sectors, but the rebound is limited. The spot - market transactions are mainly driven by rigid demand, and enterprises' willingness to purchase is generally low. On the supply side, although some production lines have entered cold - repair, the industry's production capacity is expected to decline slightly, but it has not effectively supported the spot price. It is expected that the float - glass market will continue to oscillate in the short term, with the main - contract reference range of 1025 - 1100 yuan/ton [24]. - **Soda Ash**: On the supply side, Fengcheng Salt Chemical has started operation, and the industry's overall operating load remains high. The demand side is weak, new orders are scarce, and manufacturers mainly execute pending orders and have a strong willingness to stabilize prices and sell goods. In general, the trading atmosphere in the soda - ash market is light, and the price lacks upward drive. It is expected that the market will continue a weakly - stable oscillation in the short term, with the main - contract reference range of 1140 - 1200 yuan/ton [26].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, the market rotation is accelerating, hot - plate persistence is poor, and trading volume is falling before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and bond market trading is expected to be stable. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The market is in a cautious short - covering and position - rebuilding stage after a technical oversold. It is recommended to wait and see, with the Shanghai gold main contract in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver in the range of 22000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with some having upward or downward trends based on supply - demand, policy, and cost factors [14][16][21]. - **Black Building Materials**: The black - building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track inventory changes, demand recovery, and policy adjustments [34]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended to take profits on rallies, and some products are affected by supply - demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [64][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term outlook for live pigs is pessimistic, while the long - term outlook for cotton is positive [87][102]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The President of China had a phone call with the US President; a new satellite testing and launching technology plant was established; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to break through key technologies; the central bank focuses on credit market work [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: Contract prices changed on Wednesday; the central bank held a credit market meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors [8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose; the US ADP data indicated a slowdown in the labor market; the US Treasury's refinancing statement affected the bond market [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices fluctuated, LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot was at a discount [13]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper [14]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined, and inventory and trading conditions changed [15]. - **Strategy**: If concerns about the US AI narrative ease, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, with reference price ranges [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fluctuated, and inventory and basis data changed [17][18]. - **Strategy**: The price is following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute. The trading center may return to the industrial logic [18]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined, and inventory and basis data changed [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry situation is weak, and the panic sentiment has eased to some extent [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and cost and supply - demand factors changed [20]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with reference price ranges [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory factors changed [22]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot index rose, and the futures contract price declined [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position attempt, with a reference price range for the futures contract [25]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The index rose, and inventory and basis data changed [26][27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range and key factors to watch [28]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [29]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a bullish view, with a reference price range [29]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price rebounded, and inventory and trading volume data changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The price is supported in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly, and inventory and trading volume data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track multiple factors [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill restocking and iron - making rhythms [36][37]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and spot and basis data changed [38]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and high - volatility risks [40][42]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [43]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference price range [44]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [45]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and stably in the short - term, with a reference price range [46]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Prices rose slightly, and spot and basis data changed [47]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [51]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production cuts and downstream adjustments [54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [55]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to meetings and spot transactions [56]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The price is determined by funds, and there are different views on supply and demand [58]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and consider a spread trading strategy [62]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Futures prices rose [63]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [64]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [65]. - **Strategy**: The price has priced in most geopolitical premiums, and there is pressure on the upside [66]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [68]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals [69]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is advisable to take profits gradually [70]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. Pay attention to production capacity and start - up changes [72][73]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [74]. - **Strategy**: There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term, but there is a risk of rebound in the short - term [75]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [76]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Be cautious of processing - fee corrections in the short - term and look for long - entry opportunities after the Spring Festival [77]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [78]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Look for long - entry opportunities following crude oil in the medium - term [79]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The oil price may have bottomed out. The price is supported by reduced inventory, but the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Consider going long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fell, and supply - demand factors changed [86]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to long - term support [87]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices mostly fell, and supply - demand factors changed [88]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the near - term and long - term, with different logics [89]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fell slightly, and supply - demand data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the price may be bottoming out [92]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The price may have bottomed out. Wait for a pull - back to go long [94]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and supply - demand data changed [95][98]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. The domestic price may have limited downside, and it is advisable to wait and see [99]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The futures price fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [100][101]. - **Strategy**: It fluctuates widely in the short - term and may rise in the long - term. Look for low - entry opportunities before the Spring Festival [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports 2. Core Views Polyester Industry - **PX**: The overall supply and demand of PX and PTA in Q1 are weaker than expected, with limited self - driving force before the Spring Festival. However, due to the expected tight supply - demand in Q2, the low - price support for PX is strong. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level with limited drive, with a short - term range of 7200 - 7600 and a long - term bullish view [1]. - **PTA**: Although the market is optimistic about the Q2 supply - demand, in the short term, with high valuation and weak reality, the drive is limited. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the range of 5200 - 5500, and TA5 - 9 is recommended for low - position positive hedging in the medium term [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. In the near term, there is pressure on inventory accumulation, while in Q2, the supply is expected to shrink, and it is possible to reduce inventory. Strategies include EG5 - 9 positive hedging at low prices and holding the seller of put option EG2605 - P - 3800 [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The supply remains high, and demand decreases near the Spring Festival. The price of the spot is relatively firm. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the PF processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1000, and it is advisable to shrink the spread when it is high [1]. - **Polyester Bottle - chip**: With the implementation of maintenance plans, the domestic supply is expected to decline significantly, and the inventory is decreasing. The absolute price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost side. PR2603 is recommended to pay attention to the support around 6200, and the processing fee on the main PR contract is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton [1]. LPG Industry - The report does not provide a clear overall view, but shows price increases in some LPG futures contracts and changes in inventory and upstream - downstream operating rates [2]. Natural Rubber Industry - The supply is shrinking, and the cost support is strengthening. The demand for some export - oriented semi - steel tire enterprises is sufficient, but the domestic sales are slow. The inventory in Qingdao is decreasing. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is still significant pressure at the 16500 level [4]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Soda Ash**: The spot price fluctuates in a narrow range. The supply is still high, and the demand is mainly for fulfilling orders. The inventory decreased last week but is still high year - on - year. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. - **Glass**: The spot price is stable, and the market transaction is average. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory has increased slightly. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to changes in production lines and inventory [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price rebounded slightly, but the spot price continued to decline. The supply - demand imbalance remains, with high inventory and weak demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the impact of downstream procurement and price fluctuations [8]. - **PVC**: The futures price fluctuated weakly, and the spot price was weakly stable. The supply - demand has not improved, with supply exceeding demand and inventory accumulation pressure. The cost support has increased, and the policy support is insufficient. The disk is expected to fluctuate and correct, with the main contract focusing on the 4820 - 5000 range [8]. Urea Industry - The futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price increased. The supply is sufficient, and the industrial demand is average, while the agricultural demand is warming up. The urea factory's pre - Spring Festival order - receiving pressure is not significant. The market is expected to fluctuate slightly before the Spring Festival, and the main contract is recommended to focus on the 1760 - 1820 range [9]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices continued to rise sharply. Affected by the winter storm in the US, production decreased, EIA data showed a decline in commercial inventory and a small increase in refined oil inventory. The production of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan recovered slowly, and the US had a tough stance on Iran. Short - term positive factors still exist, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East [11]. Methanol Industry - The futures price fluctuated in a narrow range at a high level, and the spot was purchased on demand. The supply and demand in the methanol market are both weak. The inventory in the inland area decreased, but high production and pre - Spring Festival inventory clearance limited the rebound. The port inventory increased slightly, and the MTO demand was weak. Key variables include the reduction rhythm of imported methanol and geopolitical risks [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: The price rebounded, but the port inventory increased unexpectedly. With the improvement of disproportionation profit, some devices are expected to restart, and the import is expected to increase. The price is expected to face pressure at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [15]. - **Styrene**: The load remains high under high profit, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken. The port inventory increased slightly, and the price is expected to face pressure at a high level. It is advisable to wait and see and shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [15]. Polyolefin Industry - The prices of LLDPE and PP are strong, driven by capital and geopolitical tensions. The static fundamentals show a decrease in supply and demand and inventory reduction, with low upstream inventory and strong price - holding intention. For PP, the supply pressure is relieved by maintenance; for PE, the pressure on standard products increases, and the downstream demand enters the off - season. Attention should be paid to spot transactions, inventory, and macro - sentiment [17]. 3. Summaries by Directory Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Products**: POY150/48 price increased by 1.2%, FDY150/96 price remained unchanged, DTY150/48 price remained unchanged, etc. The cash - flow of some products changed, such as POY150/48 cash - flow decreased by 9.5% [1]. - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (March) increased by 1.23%, WTI crude (March) increased by 1.31%, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 2.8%, etc. [1]. - **PX - related**: CFR China PX decreased by 0.6%, PX spot price (RMB) decreased by 0.8%, PX - naphtha spread decreased by 6.1%, etc. [1]. - **PTA - related**: PTA East China spot price increased by 0.2%, TA05 - TA09 spread decreased by 62.5%, PTA spot processing fee increased by 4.8%, etc. [1]. - **MEG - related**: MEG East China spot price decreased by 0.2%, EG05 - EG09 spread decreased by 5.7%, MEG port inventory increased by 7.9%, etc. [1]. LPG Industry - **LPG Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PG2603, PG2604, and PG2605 increased, and the spreads such as PG03 - 04 and PG03 - 05 changed [2]. - **LPG Outer - market Prices**: FEI swap M1 and M2 contracts, CP swap M1 and M2 contracts all decreased [2]. - **LPG Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 5.23%, LPG port inventory decreased by 1.53%, LPG port storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.36% [2]. - **LPG Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The main refinery operating rate increased by 1.99%, the PDH operating rate decreased by 14.81%, etc. [2]. Natural Rubber Industry - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex increased by 0.63%, the basis decreased by 15.49%, the price of Thai standard mixed glue increased by 0.66%, etc. [4]. - **Monthly Spreads**: 9 - 1 spread decreased by 4.35%, 1 - 5 spread increased by 2.40%, 5 - 9 spread increased by 23.08% [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of Thailand in November decreased by 9.39%, the production of Indonesia decreased by 2.58%, the production of China increased by 20.88%, etc. The operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires changed, and the tire production and export volume in December increased [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.07%, the futures inventory of natural rubber in SHFE decreased by 2.49%, etc. [4]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and South China glass prices remained unchanged, glass2605 and glass2609 prices increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 1.79% [7]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest soda ash prices remained unchanged, soda2605 and soda2609 prices increased slightly, and the 05 basis decreased by 7.14% [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash operating rate decreased by 0.46%, the weekly production decreased by 0.46%, the float glass daily melting volume increased by 0.20%, etc. [7]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory warehouse inventory increased by 0.38%, the soda ash factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.16%, and the glass factory's soda ash inventory days increased by 0.43% [7]. - **Real Estate Data**: The year - on - year changes in new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate showed different trends [7]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **PVC and Caustic Soda Spot & Futures**: The prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda decreased by 0.7%, East China calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.2%, etc. [8]. - **Caustic Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: FOB Middle East port price decreased by 1.4%, export profit increased by 0.6% [8]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: CFR Southeast Asia price increased by 4.8%, FOB Tianjin Port calcium carbide - based price decreased by 1.7%, export profit decreased by 577.7% [8]. - **Supply: Chlor - alkali Operating Rate & Industry Profit**: The caustic soda industry operating rate increased by 1.9%, the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.4%, the profit of externally purchased calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 15.0%, etc. [8]. - **Demand: Caustic Soda Downstream Operating Rate**: The alumina industry operating rate decreased by 2.3%, the viscose staple fiber industry operating rate remained unchanged, the printing and dyeing industry operating rate decreased by 3.8% [8]. - **Demand: PVC Downstream Products Operating Rate**: The Longzhong sample pipe operating rate increased by 4.5%, the profile operating rate increased by 5.4%, the PVC pre - sales volume decreased by 4.5% [8]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory: Social and Factory Inventory**: The liquid caustic soda East China factory warehouse inventory increased by 5.5%, the Shandong inventory decreased by 0.4%, the PVC upstream factory warehouse inventory decreased by 0.9%, the PVC total social inventory increased by 2.7% [8]. Urea Industry - **Futures Revenue Prices**: The 01, 05, and 09 contracts of urea increased, and the methanol main contract increased by 1.52% [9]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: 01 - 05 spread decreased by 16.67%, 05 - 09 spread increased by 31.82%, UR - MA main contract spread decreased by 6.16% [9]. - **Main Positions**: The long - position of the top 20 increased by 0.99%, the short - position of the top 20 increased by 6.89% [9]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of anthracite small pieces, thermal coal pit - mouth, and port prices remained unchanged, and the synthetic ammonia price decreased by 0.09% [9]. - **Spot Market Prices**: The prices of urea in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, etc., showed different changes [9]. - **Cross - regional Spreads**: The spreads between Shandong - Henan, Guangdong - Henan, and Guangdong - Shanxi remained unchanged [9]. - **Basis**: The basis in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, and Guangdong changed [9]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine, compound fertilizers, etc., remained unchanged, and the price of ammonium sulfate increased by 1.35%, the price of sulfur decreased by 1.50% [9]. - **Supply - demand Overview**: The daily production of domestic urea increased by 2.64%, the coal - based urea daily production increased by 3.92%, the gas - based urea daily production decreased by 4.90%, etc. [9]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: Brent increased by 1.23%, WTI increased by 1.31%, SC increased by 1.47%, and the spreads such as Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 1.45%, NYM ULSD increased by 0.75%, ICE Gasoil increased by 2.08%, and the spreads such as RBOB M1 - M3, ULSD M1 - M3, and Gasoil M1 - M3 changed [11]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of US gasoline, European gasoline, Singapore gasoline, etc., changed [11]. Methanol Industry - **Methanol Prices and Spreads**: MA2605 and MA2609 prices increased, MA59 spread decreased by 16.00%, Taicang basis decreased by 28.57%, etc. [13]. - **Methanol Outer - market Prices**: The lowest CFR China price decreased by 0.10% [13]. - **Methanol Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.12%, the social inventory increased by 0.05%, and the port inventory increased by 1.00% [13]. - **Methanol Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, the northwest enterprise sales - production ratio decreased by 3.28%, the external MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56%, etc. [13]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude and WTI crude prices increased, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 2.8%, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, CFR China pure benzene increased by 1.5%, etc. [15]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price increased by 1.3%, EB2603 and EB2604 prices increased, EB basis (03) decreased by 14.3%, etc. [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Downstream Cash - flows**: The cash - flows of phenol, caprolactam, aniline, etc., changed [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory**: The pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 2.7%, the styrene Jiangsu port inventory increased by 7.6% [15]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Chain Operating Rates**: The Asian pure benzene operating rate remained unchanged, the domestic pure benzene operating rate decreased by 2.5%, etc. [15]. Polyolefin Industry - **L2605, L2609, PP2605, PP2609 Prices**: The prices of these contracts increased [17]. - **Spreads**: L59 spread decreased by 54.84%, PP59 spread remained unchanged, LP05 spread decreased by 0.53% [17]. - **Spot Prices**: The East China PP拉丝, North China LLDPE spot prices increased [17]. - **Basis**: The North China LL basis decreased by 18.75%, the East China pp basis remained unchanged [17]. - **PE and PP Standard Prices**: The prices of East China LDPE, HD film, HD injection, etc., changed [17]. - **PE Upstream - downstream Operating Rates**: The PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [17]. - **PE and PP Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 3.58%, the PE social inventory increased by