Group 1 - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between prioritizing the weak real estate market and the booming AI infrastructure investments [2] - Current indicators show that the Federal Reserve has not achieved its 2% inflation target, with both market and household inflation expectations lacking confidence in short-term achievement [2][3] - The labor market situation is ambiguous, with some layoffs and a slight increase in initial unemployment claims, but the overall unemployment rate remains low [2][3] Group 2 - The homebuilder confidence index in the U.S. has dropped to its lowest level in two and a half years, with over one-third of builders reducing prices and two-thirds offering incentives to attract buyers deterred by high mortgage rates [3] - New home inventory is nearing levels not seen since the end of 2007, despite a slight increase in new home starts in July [3][4] - The "homeowner lock-in" effect is a significant issue, as homeowners with low-interest loans are reluctant to sell and face higher new loan costs, leading to a situation where the median price of existing homes has surpassed that of new homes for the first time [5] Group 3 - The influx of hundreds of billions into AI-related data centers and the expected trillion-dollar investments in the future could accelerate the demand for capital, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [6] - High interest rates have pressured housing-related income and spending, yet the Federal Reserve has not achieved its inflation target, raising questions about the potential rebound in the real estate sector if rates are lowered [6] - The Federal Reserve's policy effects typically take at least a year to manifest, suggesting that the economic conditions may differ by that time [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The director of the Economic Policy Department of the Central Bank of Brazil, Diogo Guillen, stated that it is too early to consider lowering the benchmark interest rate (Selic) during the Copom meeting [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Central Bank is still searching for the most suitable interest rate level to achieve inflation targets and will maintain this rate for a longer period once determined [1] - The current benchmark interest rate in Brazil remains at 15%, a level established in June and unchanged since the last monetary policy meeting at the end of July [1] Group 2: Market Observations - Guillen defended the effectiveness of the Central Bank's monetary policy, noting its observable impact on credit and foreign exchange markets [1] - Since 2025, there have been no unusual trends in the foreign exchange market, with the Brazilian real performing in line with global trends against the US dollar [1]

Group 1 - The global financial markets are entering a phase of uncertainty and critical decision-making, influenced by unexpected U.S. inflation data, diverging monetary policies among major central banks, and potential geopolitical impacts [1] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while core inflation rose by 2.7%, initially suggesting a clear path for a rate cut in September [2] - However, the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly surged by 0.9% month-on-month, with a core PPI year-on-year increase of 3.7%, indicating rising production costs and the reality of "tariff-induced inflation" [2][3] Group 2 - The unexpected rise in PPI, along with downward revisions in non-farm employment data, has diminished the likelihood of a September rate cut, leading to a shift in market sentiment from certainty to skepticism regarding rate cuts [3] - Risk assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, have been significantly impacted, reflecting their sensitivity to macroeconomic headwinds, while major U.S. stock indices show signs of hesitation and differentiation [3] - Geopolitical events, such as the meeting between Trump and Putin, could have immediate effects on oil prices, highlighting the direct impact of geopolitical stability on commodity markets [3] Group 3 - The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is expected to be a focal point for market participants seeking policy direction, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech being particularly significant [4] - Powell's tone could either suppress rate cut expectations if he emphasizes inflation risks or provide relief to the market if he alleviates inflation concerns [4] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points to 3%, marking it as another developed economy central bank adopting a loosening policy [5] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is under scrutiny for potential additional stimulus measures to boost domestic demand and economic growth, which could significantly impact regional currencies and global commodity markets [5] - Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the UK and Germany will provide insights into European price trends, which could influence the European Central Bank's policy decisions [5] - Global PMI data will serve as a leading indicator for assessing the health of manufacturing and service sectors, providing further context for market conditions [5] Group 5 - The complexity of inflation, particularly "tariff-induced inflation," is challenging traditional monetary policy frameworks, as central banks strive to balance inflation control, growth support, and financial stability [6] - Geopolitical events add unpredictability to the market, necessitating investor vigilance regarding policy signals from the Jackson Hole Symposium and actions from various central banks [6] - The importance of flexibility in asset allocation and risk management is emphasized in the current high-volatility environment, where understanding macroeconomic trends and geopolitical dynamics is crucial for achieving stable returns [6]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, Alberto Musalem, supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates last week, indicating that the central bank's inflation targets have not yet been met [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged last week [1] - This decision reflects the ongoing challenges in achieving inflation targets [1] Inflation Targets - The current inflation goals set by the Federal Reserve have not been realized [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's Governor Bailey emphasizes that the central bank should not lower interest rates too quickly or excessively, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [1] Economic Outlook - Inflation is not expected to rebound persistently, with different levels of price and wage pressures observed [1] - Wage growth is projected to slow to just below 4% by the end of the year, reflecting a cooling labor market [1] - There is an increased focus on the risks of second-round effects from inflation, particularly concerning food and energy prices, which are significant for consumers [1] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are exhibiting more caution than previously anticipated, which may impact overall economic activity [1] - The risks of economic activity declining are slightly elevated, suggesting potential challenges ahead for growth [1] Inflation Targeting - The central bank is committed to taking all necessary measures to achieve a 2% inflation target, indicating a strong focus on maintaining price stability [1]

Group 1 - The recent U.S. non-farm payroll data indicates a significant decline in the labor market, suggesting a broader weakening of the U.S. economy [1] - Despite the latest employment data, there is no intention to alter decisions at the upcoming FOMC monetary policy meeting, as the job market still appears to be in good shape [2] - There is no readiness to raise expectations for interest rate cuts before 2025, as the gap between inflation targets and employment targets remains significant [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Minister of Economic Revitalization, Akizawa Ryozo, emphasizes the importance of close communication and coordination between the Bank of Japan and the government to sustainably and stably achieve the 2% inflation target [1] Group 1 - The Japanese government aims to guide monetary policy towards a sustainable and stable realization of the inflation target [1] - The Minister highlights the necessity for collaboration between the central bank and the government to ensure effective policy implementation [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced on July 30 that it will maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive time this year it has opted to hold steady [1][3] - Compared to the optimistic assessment in June regarding "sustained economic expansion," the Fed's recent statement reflects a more cautious tone, indicating that uncertainty remains high [3] - The Fed noted that net export fluctuations continue to impact data, and recent indicators suggest a slowdown in U.S. economic activity during the first half of the year, while the unemployment rate remains low and inflation is still slightly above target [3] Group 2 - Market expectations had pointed to a potential rate cut in September, contingent on data performance, but Fed Chair Powell stated that no decision has been made regarding a rate cut [4] - Notably, two members of the Federal Reserve Board voted against the decision, marking the first occurrence of multiple dissenting votes since 1993 [5][6] - Powell emphasized that many uncertainties remain, and an early rate cut could fail to fully address inflation issues, with the majority of committee members believing current inflation levels are slightly above target [6] Group 3 - Following the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged, the stock market reacted with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 171.71 points to 44,461.28, a decline of 0.38%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose by 31.38 points to 21,129.67, an increase of 0.15% [8][9] - The gold market saw a significant drop, with COMEX gold futures falling by 1.72% to $3,266.90 per ounce, influenced by the Fed's rate decision and Powell's comments [8][9] - In the commodities market, WTI September crude oil futures closed at $70.00 per barrel, while Brent September crude oil futures settled at $73.24 per barrel [10]

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate Selic at 15% and confirmed the end of the current rate hike cycle, citing the need for a cautious stance in a highly uncertain economic environment [1] - The announcement emphasized that the monetary policy will be adjusted as necessary based on economic conditions, with a commitment to restart the adjustment cycle if needed to achieve the inflation target of 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points [1] - The Central Bank's June report projected a 2025 inflation rate of 4.9%, but the market expects the actual rate to be higher, indicating potential challenges in achieving inflation targets [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian economy is showing resilience, with a tight labor market, but risks remain from fiscal deficits and exchange rate volatility, along with unanchored inflation targets [1] - The global economic slowdown, tariff barriers, and commodity price fluctuations could lead to imported deflation, posing additional challenges for the Brazilian economy [1] - The recent decision by the U.S. government to impose additional tariffs on certain Brazilian exports has raised concerns about its potential impact on domestic economic and financial market uncertainty, particularly regarding price levels and foreign trade structure [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation is unique, with risks related to both employment and inflation targets [1] Group 1 - Future actions may bring policy rates closer to neutral [1] - It is uncertain whether data will become clearer by the next policy meeting [1]