Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is showing resilience and strong growth, supporting the appreciation of the RMB against the USD, while external factors such as a weakening USD and positive developments in US-China trade negotiations also contribute to this trend [1][3][4]. Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's economy demonstrated "steady progress and new achievements in high-quality development," with a robust GDP growth rate in the second quarter [1][6]. - The GDP growth rate for the second quarter exceeded expectations, reflecting the strong vitality and resilience of the Chinese economy [4][6]. Currency Exchange Dynamics - The RMB/USD exchange rate has strengthened, with the midpoint rate rising from 7.1586 at the end of June to 7.1494 at the end of July, indicating a bullish trend [3][4]. - On August 4, the RMB midpoint rate was reported at 7.1395, marking the largest increase since January 21 of the same year [3]. Policy and Market Signals - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) are implementing measures to support the RMB, including easing foreign investment quotas and encouraging the use of RMB in cross-border trade [4][7]. - The Central Political Bureau's meeting at the end of July released multiple positive policy signals aimed at improving economic fundamentals and market expectations [1][6]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB will likely continue to appreciate, with expectations of reaching 7.1 by year-end, driven by a combination of domestic and international factors [7][8]. - The RMB is expected to exhibit "two-way fluctuations" while remaining generally stable, with potential for temporary breakthroughs under favorable conditions [7][8].

瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)发表机构观点称，中国的宏观形势为人民币带来支撑。二季度GDP 同比增长5.2%，超出市场预期。由于关税风险缓和且提前出口势头强劲，6月出口也有所回升，尤其是 对新兴市场。服务业、投资和离岸资产的资本流出有所放缓，外国投资者的资本流动已企稳。 外汇交易中心数据显示，上周，三大人民币汇率指数均上涨，8月1日，CFETS人民币汇率指数报 96.94，较7月31日上涨0.18；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报102.81，较7月31日上涨0.24；SDR货币篮子 人民币汇率指数报91.60，较7月31日上涨0.11。 与此同时，美元指数在99关口下方震荡，截至9时40分，报98.9033。 8月4日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘小幅上涨256点，升破7.21、7.20、7.19三个关口，报 7.1850，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.2106。截至9时40分，离岸人民币对美元报7.19115。 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.1395，较前一日上调101个基点。 ...

100美元 713.95人民币 100欧元 826.95人民币 100日元 4.8576人民币 100港元 90.952人民币 100英镑 949.19人民币 100澳元 462.2人民币 100新西兰元 422.5人民币 100新加坡元 554.75人民币 100瑞士法郎 888.52人民币 100加元 518.9人民币 100人民币113.3澳门元 100人民币59.631马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1110.5俄罗斯卢布 100人民币252.14南非兰特 100人民币19385韩元 100人民币51.369阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币52.452沙特里亚尔 100人民币4801.19匈牙利福林 100人民币51.515波兰兹罗提 100人民币90.23丹麦克朗 100人民币135.0瑞典克朗 100人民币143.48挪威克朗 100人民币568.538土耳其里拉 100人民币263.93墨西哥比索 100人民币453.66泰铢（完） 新华社北京8月4日电 中国外汇交易中心8月4日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、澳 元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉 ...

同日，在岸人民币对美元、离岸人民币对美元双双收复7.20关口。截至当日9时35分，在岸人民币对美 元报7.1870，日内升值幅度为0.06%；离岸人民币对美元报7.1897，日内贬值幅度为0.04%。 国家外汇管理局日前召开2025年下半年外汇管理工作交流会指出，2025年以来，外汇管理部门有力维护 外汇市场稳健运行。保持人民币汇率弹性，加强外汇市场"宏观审慎+微观监管"两位一体管理，我国外 汇市场在错综复杂形势下展现出较强韧性。下半年要深化外汇市场发展，继续完善企业汇率风险管理服 务。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）8月4日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外汇市场人 民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1395元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1496元，大幅升值101基点。这也 是2024年11月6月以来人民币对美元中间价的升值高点，升幅则创2025年1月21日以来最大。 ...

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯 8月4日，人民币兑美元中间价上调101个基点，报7.1395。8月1日，CFETS人民币 汇率指数为96.94，较7月31日涨0.18。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年8月4日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.1395元，1欧元对人民币8.2695元，100日元对人民币4.8576元，1港元对人民币0.90952元，1 英镑对人民币9.4919元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6220元，1新西兰元对人民币4.2250元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.5475元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8852元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1890元，人民币1元对1.1330澳门 元，人民币1元对0.59631马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.1050俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.5214南非兰 特，人民币1元对193.85韩元，人民币1元对0.51369阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52452沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对48.0119匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51515波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9023丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3500瑞典克朗，人民币 ...

中国经济网北京8月4日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币对美元汇率中间价报 7.1395，较前一交易日调升101个基点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年8月4日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1 美元对人民币7.1395元，1欧元对人民币8.2695元，100日元对人民币4.8576元，1港元对人民币0.90952 元，1英镑对人民币9.4919元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6220元，1新西兰元对人民币4.2250元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.5475元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8852元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1890元，人民币1元对1.1330 澳门元，人民币1元对0.59631马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.1050俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.5214南 非兰特，人民币1元对193.85韩元，人民币1元对0.51369阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52452沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对48.0119匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51515波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9023丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3500瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4348挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.68538 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, highlighting recent exchange rate movements and the factors influencing these changes [1][3][6]. Exchange Rate Movements - On August 1, the central parity rate of the yuan against the US dollar was reported at 7.1496, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous day [1]. - Both onshore and offshore yuan depreciated against the dollar, with the onshore rate at 7.2034 and the offshore rate at 7.2136, reflecting daily declines of 0.06% and 0.05% respectively [3][7]. - The yuan's exchange rate reached a two-month low, with a continuous decline over five days leading to a 0.38% drop in July [7]. Factors Influencing Exchange Rate - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) officials indicated that the yuan's exchange rate is influenced by multiple factors, including economic growth, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks [9][10]. - The PBOC emphasized that it does not seek to devalue the yuan for competitive advantages and aims to maintain a stable exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level [10][11]. Market Outlook - Analysts expect the yuan to stabilize at a reasonable equilibrium level in the second half of the year, supported by improving domestic economic conditions and anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve [10][12]. - The article notes that foreign capital inflows into Chinese assets are expected to continue, providing support for the yuan's stability [11][12]. Industry Impacts - The article outlines the potential impacts of yuan fluctuations on various industries, indicating that a stronger yuan could benefit import-dependent sectors while posing challenges for traditional export-oriented industries [14]. - Specific sectors such as textiles, aviation, and high-tech equipment may see advantages from a stronger yuan, while traditional foreign trade sectors may face difficulties [14].

联储分裂加剧，汇率 拐点未现 华泰期货研究院 2025年08月01日 蔡劭立 F3063489 Z0014617 联系人： 朱思谋 F03142856 — 量价和政策信号— 2 【量价观察】美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率下行 ◆3个月的美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率曲线显示出人民币的升值趋势，Put端波动率高于Call端。 ◆ 美元兑人民币期权波动率回落，市场对美元兑人民币未来波动性的预期减弱。 美元兑人民币期权隐含波动率 Delta为5的美元兑人民币3个月期权隐含波动率 数据来源： 3 Bloomberg Wind 华泰期货研究院 3 4 5 6 7 3M 2025/07/31 3M 2025/06/27 3M 2025/03/28 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2023-04 2023-10 2024-04 2024-10 2025-04 【量价观察】期限结构 20250730（%） 20250723（%） 20250702（%） 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 一月 三月 六月 一年 本周新交所美元兑人民币期货升贴水(-) 本周银行远期升贴水(-) 本周美中利差 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trade System to announce a slight adjustment in the central parity rate of the Renminbi against the US dollar, indicating a downward trend in the exchange rate [1]. Group 1 - The central parity rate for the Renminbi against the US dollar is set at 7.1496 yuan per dollar as of August 1, 2025 [1]. - This represents a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous rate [1].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China announced a slight depreciation of the RMB against the USD, indicating ongoing fluctuations in the foreign exchange market [1] Exchange Rate Summary - The central parity rate of the RMB against the USD was set at 7.1496 on August 1, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous day's rate of 7.1494 [1] - As of 9:35 AM on the same day, the onshore RMB was quoted at 7.2034 against the USD, reflecting a depreciation of 0.06% [1] - The offshore RMB was reported at 7.2136 against the USD, with a depreciation of 0.05% [1]