尽管摩根大通预计芯片公司一季度业绩整体尚可，且过去两个月芯片股已累跌约25%，但该行仍在4月17日研报中警告 称，市场尚未真正见底。随着特朗普重启关税、客户削减订单，芯片行业可能进入新一轮"盈利下调周期"。未来几个季 度，若行业整体EPS预期被大幅下修15%-25%，芯片股还可能再跌10%-15%。 点击 上方 硬AI 关注我们 硬·AI 作者 | 房家瑶 编辑 | 硬 AI 过去两个月芯片板块已累约25%，投资者原本期待着在业绩公布季能喘一口气，但摩根大通认为可能还没 到底。 4月17日，摩根大通发布研报指出，虽然芯片股整体Q1业绩还行，但关税来了，估值要下修，今年后半年 会更难。 摩根大通分析师Harlan Sur及其团队指出，大多数芯片公司今年第一季度业绩将符合预期，甚至略好。但 从第二季度开始，管理层在发布财报指引时可能会变得更加保守，甚至悲观， 因为特朗普的关税和全球 贸易紧张，已经让芯片公司的客户开始削减订单，或者推迟采购。 更重要的是，如果在未来两到三个财报季度中，企业开始下调未来的盈利预测，行业整体全年前瞻性EPS 预期或面临15%-25%的下调， 这会触发新一轮"盈利预期负向修正周期"，整个 ...

Group 1: Stock Performance - AMD stock price has dropped significantly, resulting in a market cap decline from $379 billion in 2024 to $134 billion today, a total loss of $245 billion [1] - The stock has retreated to its lowest level since May 2023, indicating a prolonged downtrend [1] Group 2: Market and Trade Dynamics - The decline in AMD's share price is attributed to escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, including a pause in Boeing deliveries ordered by Beijing [2] - The Trump administration's request for chip companies to limit sales of less advanced products to China has further impacted AMD [2] Group 3: Business Impact and Revenue - NVIDIA has projected a $5.5 billion impact on its business due to trade curbs, and AMD has also indicated that these restrictions will significantly affect its operations this year [3] - Concerns about demand from data centers are emerging, with large companies like Microsoft pausing operations, which may extend to others like Amazon and Google [4] Group 4: Segment Performance - AMD's data center business is a key growth driver, with revenue increasing by 69% to $3.8 billion in the fourth quarter, while operating income reached $1.157 billion [6] - The client segment, which includes Ryzen chips, saw a revenue increase of 58% to $2.3 billion, but revenue from gaming and embedded businesses fell by 59% and 13%, respectively [7] Group 5: Valuation Metrics - AMD is currently considered undervalued, with a forward P/E ratio of 34.5, significantly lower than its five-year average of 94, and a non-GAAP PE ratio of 19, below its historical level of 50 [8] Group 6: Technical Analysis - The AMD share price has fallen below critical support levels, including $133 and $93.56, with indicators suggesting a potential continued decline [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - AMD is making a strategic move to compete with Nvidia by acquiring ZT Systems for $4.9 billion, aiming to enhance its AI infrastructure capabilities and capitalize on the growing AI market, which is expected to exceed $1 trillion in the coming years [1][3]. Group 1: AMD's Strategic Moves - The acquisition of ZT Systems is intended to leverage AMD's existing strengths and represents a significant growth opportunity in the AI sector [1]. - AMD's data center revenue reached a record $3.9 billion in Q4 2024, marking a 69% year-over-year increase, largely driven by the strong performance of AMD Instinct GPUs [3][6]. - The MI300 series chips have shown significant performance improvements, prompting AMD to accelerate the production schedule for the next-generation MI350 AI chips to mid-2025 [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - AMD's gaming business has seen a substantial decline of 59% year-over-year, alongside a 13% drop in its embedded business, attributed to inventory adjustments and weak demand [6]. - The acquisition allows AMD to offer end-to-end solutions that integrate its CPUs, GPUs, networking components, and ROCm software, which serves as an open-source alternative to Nvidia's CUDA ecosystem [9]. - AMD faces challenges in convincing developers to transition from the well-established CUDA platform to its new ROCm platform, which may hinder its competitive edge [10][12]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The integration of ZT Systems is just the beginning, as AMD must invest heavily in resources to keep pace with Nvidia's performance and functionality roadmap [10]. - AMD's competitors include not only Nvidia but also Intel and other well-funded AI chip startups, intensifying the competitive landscape [12]. - Regulatory uncertainties, particularly regarding U.S.-China relations and export controls on AI chips, pose additional risks to AMD's business prospects in the Chinese market, which accounts for nearly 25% of its total revenue [12].

Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.8 CNY per 10 shares (including tax) and issue 3 bonus shares for every 10 shares held, resulting in a total cash dividend of 59,904,000 CNY and 99,840,000 bonus shares, increasing the total share capital to 432,640,000 shares [2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.593 billion CNY, an increase of 8.37% compared to the previous year [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 131 million CNY, a decrease of 3.62% year-on-year [3]. Factors Affecting Profit - The decline in net profit was primarily due to a slight decrease in the electrification railway business [3]. - The company aims to enhance management efficiency and market competitiveness through cost reduction and innovation [3][4]. Raw Material Price Risk Management - The company employs a pricing model based on "raw material prices + processing fees" and uses copper futures to hedge against price fluctuations [3]. Future Growth Drivers - Future growth will focus on core business areas, driven by customer demand and technological innovation, while extending the industrial chain [4][5]. New Energy Vehicle Sector - The company is adopting a cautious market expansion strategy in the competitive new energy vehicle parts sector, collaborating with quality clients [4]. Stock Buyback and Shareholder Value - The company is considering stock buybacks to enhance investment value and improve governance, with plans to disclose any related actions in accordance with legal requirements [4][5]. Impact of Tariffs - In 2024, overseas revenue accounted for 5.24% of total revenue, with exports to the U.S. making up about 2%, indicating limited impact from recent tariff increases [9]. Industry Outlook - The copper processing industry is expected to maintain steady growth, driven by demand from new energy and data center sectors [8][9].

天孚通信：目前未发现因为关税政策导致客户需求的明显调整 智通财经4月8日电，天孚通信(300394.SZ)发布投资者关系活动记录表公告称，截至目前，公司订单业 务保持稳定，新产品持续上量，目前未发现因为关税政策导致客户需求的明显调整。公司泰国工厂一期 厂房在去年已经建成并投入生产，目前几个主要大客户的认证已经通过。预计近期将进一步增加产能。 二期厂房预计将于近日完成装修并投入使用，产线陆续开始设备安装和调试。公司参展OFC2025，重点 展示了面向共封装光学（CPO）和高速光模块应用的FAU（光纤阵列单元）、POSA（无源光子组件） 等产品及相关封装方案。这些产品作为光通信系统的核心部件，支持400G、800G和1.6T及以上的传输 速率，满足AI和数据中心等场景的大带宽需求。 ...

Group 1: Company Performance and Financials - The company's net profit for Q1 2025 has significantly increased, achieving a historical high with a year-on-year growth of multiple times [6] - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 is notably lagging behind the net profit growth, with accounts receivable reaching 3.887 billion yuan, accounting for 336.67% of the net profit attributable to the parent company [3] - The company's asset-liability ratio as of the end of 2024 is 53.44%, indicating a relatively high level [12] Group 2: Research and Development - The company's R&D investment for 2024 is only 4.2% of operating revenue, significantly lower than the industry average of 8%-10% [3] - The company has over 1,000 professional R&D personnel and holds 399 effective patents in the field of circuit boards, including 172 invention patents [3] - The company plans to continue increasing R&D investment to maintain competitiveness in high-end fields such as AI servers and data centers [3] Group 3: Impact of Tariffs and Trade - The company is minimally affected by the "reciprocal tariffs" as direct exports to the U.S. are very low, and the import tariffs are borne by the importers (customers) [4] - The company maintains close communication with clients regarding international trade disputes and is monitoring the situation closely [4] - The company has a 60% export ratio, but the impact of tariffs on overseas business is limited due to the low direct export percentage to the U.S. [4] Group 4: Market Outlook and Strategy - The global PCB market is projected to reach a value of $73.565 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, and is expected to grow to $94.661 billion by 2029 [11] - The company is focusing on AI technology development as a key driver for business growth, establishing partnerships with several international companies [7] - The company is confident in its performance for the upcoming quarters, with a full order book and plans for steady capacity expansion based on industry developments and customer orders [8]

Market Overview - On April 3, both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets experienced declines with increased trading volume [1] - The aquaculture and logistics sectors saw the highest gains, while the kitchen and bathroom appliances and components sectors faced the largest declines [1] Top Stocks - The top stock by popularity was Hongbaoli (002165), which closed at the daily limit up [1] - Other notable gainers included Zhongyida (600610) and Hangang Co. (600126), while Dawi Technology (600589) was the only stock among the top ten to decline, falling by 0.83% [1] Individual Stock Analysis Hangang Co. (600126) - Hangang Co. saw a significant increase in popularity, with a trading volume reaching 12.45 million, marking one of the highest levels this year [3] - The stock opened lower but experienced a strong rally, nearly hitting the daily limit before a slight pullback, ultimately closing up by 6.36% [3] Kaimete Gas (002549) - Kaimete Gas experienced high volatility, with a trading range exceeding 15% during the day [4] - The stock opened low, surged, and then fell back, ultimately closing unchanged after previously hitting the daily limit for five consecutive trading days [4] - The recent price surge is linked to its involvement in the photolithography gas sector, with products certified by major international companies [4] Weichai Heavy Machinery (000880) - Weichai Heavy Machinery opened lower but rebounded significantly, closing up by 1.94% after a volatile trading session [5] - The stock has shown consistent gains over the past four trading days, reversing a previous downward trend [5] - The increase is attributed to its data center-related products, which have seen substantial sales and revenue growth across various sectors [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the communication industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the demand for computing power is continuously increasing due to the maturity of generative artificial intelligence (AIGC) technologies, which significantly drives the growth of data centers and related industries [3][4] - Copper interconnect technology is becoming a key factor in enhancing data center performance, particularly in short-distance connections where it offers cost and power consumption advantages [4][5] - The AEC (Active Electrical Cable) technology is gaining attention as it enhances signal quality and transmission distance, making it crucial for high-speed interconnections within data centers [5][6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Copper Interconnect Technology - Copper interconnect technology is essential for improving data center performance, with various connection solutions available [14] - The report discusses the advantages and disadvantages of fiber optic and copper cable connections, emphasizing the growing market share of copper solutions in short-distance applications [15][18] Section 2: AI and Copper Cable Demand - The rise of AI models like ChatGPT and DeepSeek is driving the demand for high-speed copper cables, as these models require substantial computing power [23][29] - NVIDIA's GB200 architecture extensively utilizes copper interconnects, which are more cost-effective and energy-efficient compared to previous optical solutions [40][47] Section 3: Data Center Growth and Copper Demand - Data center energy consumption is projected to rise significantly, with global data center electricity usage expected to exceed 1,000 TWh by 2026 [56][59] - The report notes that copper interconnects are favored for their low power consumption and cost-effectiveness in meeting the diverse connectivity needs of data centers [63][64] Section 4: High-Speed Copper Cable Market - The high-speed copper cable market is expanding, with various applications including chip-to-chip connections and server interconnections [69][70] - The AEC market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45% from 2023 to 2028, indicating strong demand for this technology [79][80] Section 5: Key Beneficiaries - Leading companies in the AEC industry, such as Luxshare Precision and Zhaolong Interconnect, are positioned to benefit from the growth in this sector [6][33][37]

Core Insights - Beijing has successfully issued and listed 11 infrastructure public REITs projects, raising approximately 23.5 billion yuan, accounting for 17.2% of the national project count and 13.8% of the total fundraising scale, maintaining a leading position in the country [1] - Infrastructure public REITs serve as an innovative financial tool that transforms stable income-generating real estate projects into standardized, tradable financial products, providing investors with high cash dividends and strong liquidity [1] - The initiative plays a crucial role in supporting high-quality economic development by enhancing direct financing, stabilizing macro leverage ratios, and preventing financial risks [1] Project Development and Support - The Beijing Development and Reform Commission has issued a notice to encourage market participants to actively submit applications for infrastructure public REITs projects, reflecting a positive response [2] - A dedicated working mechanism has been established, involving multiple departments to efficiently support the issuance and operation of infrastructure public REITs projects [2] - Beijing has successfully launched projects in various sectors, including warehousing logistics, ecological protection, clean energy, and affordable housing, marking the first listings in these areas nationwide [2] Future Directions - The city plans to leverage its ecological advantages and enhance service support to promote more infrastructure public REITs projects [3] - The project solicitation channel for infrastructure public REITs will be normalized, focusing on new infrastructure areas such as artificial intelligence, data centers, and smart cities [3]

Core Viewpoint - A European investor plans to invest €200 million to €250 million in the former BelGaN factory in Oudenaarde, which will restart chip production using photonic chips instead of gallium nitride technology [1][2] Group 1: Investment and Production Plans - The bankruptcy trustee has reached an agreement to acquire the site for €20.35 million, with plans to reopen the factory in September and create up to 500 jobs [1][2] - The new owner has paid a €2 million deposit to demonstrate commitment, and negotiations regarding investment conditions are ongoing [1][2] - BelGaN has a clear business plan for producing photonic chips, which differs from its previous focus on gallium nitride chips that struggled to be profitable [1][2] Group 2: Market Context and Strategic Importance - The news comes at a critical time for the European chip industry, which is trying to compete with the US and Asia through the European Chips Act, a €43 billion investment plan [2] - The restart of the factory is significant for Europe's chip strategy, as BelGaN was the only industrial chip manufacturer in Belgium before its bankruptcy [2] - The factory's cleanroom is suitable for the production processes of the next generation of chips, aligning with the growing demand for specialized chips in AI, data centers, and the automotive industry [1][2]