Economic Growth - China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, resulting in a 5.3% growth for the first half of the year, exceeding market expectations [1][7] - The GDP for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 660,536 billion RMB, with the tertiary sector contributing the most at 390,314 billion RMB, growing by 5.5% [3] Sector Performance - The tertiary sector accounted for 59.1% of GDP, driven by digital economy and consumption upgrades [3] - The secondary sector's value added was 239,050 billion RMB, growing by 5.3%, with high-end manufacturing (including new energy and semiconductors) as the core growth driver [3][9] - The primary sector contributed 31,172 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 3.7%, showing mixed performance in agricultural outputs [3] Income and Consumption - The per capita disposable income for residents was 21,840 RMB, with a nominal growth of 5.3% and a real growth of 5.4% after adjusting for inflation [3] Currency and GDP Conversion - The average exchange rate for the first half of 2025 was approximately 7.18 RMB per USD, leading to a GDP of about 919.47 billion USD [4][6] - The RMB depreciated slightly against the USD, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [6][9] Economic Resilience - Despite challenges from international trade tensions and domestic structural adjustments, China's GDP growth demonstrates resilience, particularly in the face of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration [7][9] - The high-end manufacturing sector has shown robust growth, countering the downturn in traditional industries [9] Future Outlook - The economic performance in the first half of the year lays a solid foundation for achieving annual development goals, with expectations for continued stable growth in the second half [10]

Overview - The core viewpoint of the article is that China's economy is facing challenges from tariffs and low demand, but is showing signs of stabilization with a projected GDP growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year, and a 5.2% growth in Q2, indicating a slight decline from Q1 [1][4]. Economic Performance - In Q2, the supply-demand imbalance deepened, with external demand growth significantly outpacing domestic production and consumption. Exports grew by 7.4% year-on-year, while retail sales and investment grew by 5.4% and 1.8%, respectively [4][6]. - The nominal GDP growth rate fell to 3.9%, with the actual GDP growth rate exceeding it by 1.3 percentage points, indicating increasing pressure from low prices [6][8]. - Economic data in June showed a slowdown in growth across most sectors compared to April and May, with industrial value-added growth rising to 6.8% but retail sales growth declining to 4.8% [9][10]. Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in June was 4.8%, below market expectations, primarily due to a sharp decline in restaurant consumption, which dropped by 5 percentage points to 0.9% [11][12]. - Non-subsidized goods saw a significant decline in growth, while subsidized categories like home appliances experienced a nearly 20% drop in growth, reflecting weakened consumer demand [11][12]. - The outlook for Q3 suggests a potential increase in consumption growth due to a lower base effect, but consumer confidence remains fragile [16]. Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth slowed to 2.8% in June, with infrastructure and manufacturing investments declining by 1.5 and 1 percentage points, respectively [17][18]. - Real estate investment continued to decline, with sales area and amount dropping by 5.5% and 10.8%, respectively, indicating ongoing pressure in the property market [18][19]. - Infrastructure investment growth reached its lowest levels of the year, with a significant drop in fiscal revenue impacting project financing [21][23]. Trade and Exports - In June, both export and import growth rates increased, with a trade surplus of $114.77 billion, up 16% year-on-year. Exports to the U.S. saw a notable recovery, with a decline of only 16.1% compared to a previous drop of 34.5% [26][27]. - The overall trade environment remains resilient, although there are concerns about future export growth as the "rush to export" effect diminishes [26]. Industrial Production - Industrial production accelerated in June, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, supported by easing U.S.-China tariffs and the effectiveness of new policies [27][28]. - Despite the growth, the industrial sales rate declined to 94.3%, indicating increased competitive pressure on enterprises [27]. Inflation and Price Pressure - Inflation showed divergence, with CPI rising to 0.1% after four months of negative growth, while PPI fell to -3.6%, reflecting significant price pressures in various sectors [32][33]. - The outlook for inflation remains challenging, with potential for a slow recovery in prices due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [32]. Future Outlook - The economic outlook for Q3 indicates challenges from insufficient effective demand and low price pressures, but GDP growth may still be supported by policy measures and a lower base effect [34].

Group 1 - The GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2%, which exceeded expectations due to strong exports and robust consumer activity [1][5] - Export resilience and rapid growth in manufacturing investment, particularly in emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing, indicate ongoing industrial upgrades and innovation [1][3] - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted sales in home appliances and communication devices, with younger generations leading new consumption trends through strong online retail activity [3] Group 2 - Since 2025, China's capital market has seen deepening foreign investment openness, with regulatory bodies implementing policies to enhance the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system, broadening investment scope and improving foreign participation [5][9] - Many foreign financial institutions are optimistic about the Chinese market, with Morgan Stanley and Standard Chartered maintaining positive ratings on Chinese stocks [5][7] - In the first half of 2025, foreign investment in A-shares reached approximately 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 87.1 billion yuan from the end of 2024, reflecting sustained interest from international investors [9]

Core Insights - China's GDP for the first half of 2025 exceeded 66 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, indicating resilience and a commitment to high-quality development amidst global economic challenges [1] Group 1: Economic Stability - The global economic environment is increasingly unstable, with rising unilateralism and protectionism negatively impacting international trade [2] - China is implementing proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, aiming for high-quality development to counter uncertainties [2] - The World Bank and OECD have downgraded global growth forecasts, yet maintain stable growth predictions for China, positioning it as a stabilizing force in the global economy [2] Group 2: Economic Resilience and Potential - China's GDP growth rates for Q1 and Q2 were 5.4% and 5.2%, respectively, leading to a 5.3% growth in the first half, surpassing the annual target of around 5% [3] - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with retail sales increasing by 5.0% year-on-year, reflecting a robust internal market [3] - China's foreign trade reached a historical high in the first half, maintaining growth for seven consecutive quarters, underscoring the strength of its economic fundamentals [3] Group 3: Innovation and Growth Drivers - The drive for high-quality development is fueled by a focus on cultivating new productive forces and integrating technological and industrial innovation [4] - High-tech manufacturing value added grew by 9.5%, with significant increases in the production of 3D printing equipment, new energy vehicles, and industrial robots [4] - Recent reforms, including the promotion of the private economy and the establishment of a unified national market, are enhancing internal economic dynamism and innovation [4]

二季度以来国际形势急剧变化、外部压力明显加大，在这种态势下，中国经济取得这样的成绩单，其中 的含金量不言而喻。 国家统计局15日发布中国经济半年报，细看这份"期中考试成绩单"，不少经济指标表现"超预期"。 本来一些机构预测上半年GDP增长5.2%，但上半年GDP增速达到5.3%，超出预期。 本来外界以为关税战阴影下，出口会回落，但上半年出口规模历史同期首次突破13万亿元，6月份出口 增速更是上升0.9个百分点达到7.2%，也超出预期。 本来以为行业内卷下，工业增长乏力，但6月规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.8%，远超市场预期的 5.5%，也高于5月份的5.8%。作为经济的压舱石，工业经济体现出了对国民经济运行应有的支撑力。 消费表现也可圈可点，上半年社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.0%，比一季度加快0.4个百分点。消费对 经济增长的贡献率达到52%，继续发挥主动力作用。 从民生指标来看，就业形势总体稳定，城镇调查失业率略有下降，居民收入平稳增长，全国居民人均可 支配收入21840元，扣除价格因素实际增长5.4%，跑赢GDP增速。 从这份成绩单，可以看到新意。 新质生产力培育开花结果，从Deepseek大模型到机器 ...

新华财经北京7月15日电（记者潘洁、王雨萧、张晓洁）行至年中，中国经济走势备受关注。 7月15日，国家统计局发布数据显示，上半年，中国国内生产总值（GDP）660536亿元，按不变价格计 算，同比增长5.3%。 今年以来，国际环境变乱交织，美国推出一系列单边关税措施，严重扰乱全球经贸活动，损害世界经济 增长前景。同时，国内新旧动能加快转换，调整阵痛持续释放，部分行业企业经营面临困难。 今年以来，面对更趋复杂严峻的外部环境，我国有效实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，国民经济顶住压 力、迎难而上，"稳"的态势持续，"进"的步伐坚定，"新"的动能累积，"畅"的循环改善，中国经济大船 沿着高质量发展航道破浪前行。 迎难而上经济运行延续稳中向好发展态势 细看上半年中国经济答卷，底盘之"稳"的特点十分鲜明。 从经济增长看，上半年我国GDP同比增长5.3%，增速比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百分点。分季度 看，一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，二季度GDP同比增长5.2%。 "国民经济顶压前行、稳定运行，主要指标好于预期，高质量发展扎实推进，经济保持了稳中有进、稳 中向好的发展态势。"国家统计局副局长盛来运在当天举行的国新办新闻发布 ...

15日，国新办就2025年上半年国民经济运行情况举行新闻发布会。 国家统计局副局长盛来运在会上表示，上半年，经济运行总体平稳、稳中向好，生产需求稳定增长，就 业形势总体稳定，居民收入继续增加，新动能成长壮大，高质量发展取得新进展，社会大局保持稳定。 经济运行"稳"的主基调没有变 盛来运表示，上半年一个很突出的特点就是经济运行"稳"。增长稳中略升，上半年GDP同比增长5.3%， 增速比去年同期和全年均提升0.3个百分点。调查失业率总体平稳，今年以来，月度调查失业率基本在 5.0%—5.4%区间波动。物价低位运行，基本平稳。国际收支基本平衡，货物贸易进出口创同期新高， 外汇储备维持在3.2万亿美元以上。从以上四大宏观指标看，经济运行"稳"的主基调没有变。 视频：国家统计局：上半年GDP同比增长5.3%来源：中国新闻网 下半年中国经济保持稳定增长有支撑 盛来运称，不少国际机构还有一些投行对全球经济预测发表展望报告，多数机构都是预测下半年全球经 济放缓，但这些机构大多不约而同调高了中国经济增长的预期。这显示了国际机构和投行对中国经济发 展的信心。从下半年情况看，尽管外部环境还有不少不确定性，内部结构调整的压力较大。但 ...

7月15日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，国家统计局副局长盛来运介绍2025年上半年国民经济运 行情况，并答记者问。 上半年国民经济顶压前行、稳定运行，主要指标好于预期，"稳"的态势持续，"进"的步伐坚定，"新"的 动能累积，"畅"的循环改善，高质量发展扎实推进。 ■2025年上半年中国经济同比增长5.3% 初步核算，上半年国内生产总值660536亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%。分产业看，第一产业 增加值31172亿元，同比增长3.7%；第二产业增加值239050亿元，增长5.3%；第三产业增加值390314亿 元，增长5.5%。分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%。从环比看，二季度 国内生产总值增长1.1%。 ■2025年上半年农业（种植业）增加值同比增长3.7% 夏粮稳产丰收，畜牧业平稳增长。上半年，农业（种植业）增加值同比增长3.7%；猪牛羊禽肉产量 4843万吨，同比增长2.8%。 ■2025年上半年服务业增加值同比增长5.5% 服务业增长加快，现代服务业发展良好。上半年，服务业增加值同比增长5.5%，比一季度加快0.2个百 分点。其中，信息传输、软件和信息技术服 ...

国家统计局副局长盛来运：中国经济下半年会继续保持稳中有进、稳中向好的发展态势 金十数据7月15日讯，国家统计局副局长盛来运表示，下半年，中国经济保持稳定增长是有支撑的，一 是上半年经济稳中有进的发展态势和成效，为完成全年目标打下了良好基础；二是多年高质量发展的大 势和实践凝聚了共识，积累了新动能，推动了经济再平衡，提升了经济可持续发展的能力；三是宏观政 策协同发力，将为经济稳定运行保驾护航。综合判断，中国经济下半年会继续保持稳中有进、稳中向好 的发展态势。 （新华财经） ...

7月15日，国家统计局副局长盛来运在国新办新闻发布会上表示，下半年尽管外部环境还有不少不确定 性，内部结构调整也有压力，但综合判断，下半年中国经济保持稳定增长有支撑，会继续保持稳中有 进、稳中向好的态势。(人民财讯) ...