上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 利好来了！ 据1月9日早盘公布的数据，CPI环比由降转涨，同比涨幅继续扩大，核心CPI上涨1.2%；PPI 环比上涨 0.2%，连续3个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。数据发布之后，A50开始直线拉升。A股各大指数集 体爆发。港股市场受外围市场影响，表现稍有落后。 盘中，沪指时隔10年再度突破4100点。截至午间收盘， 沪指涨0.3%，深成指涨0.57%，创业板指涨0.1%。 分析人士认为，物价数据进一步打消了市场对于经济处于通缩状态的预期，同时物价整体涨幅又在可控范围之 内。这种状态有利于权益资产的演绎，对于债市反而是不利因素。今早，国债期货跌幅一度扩大，30年期主 力合约跌0.30%，10年期主力合约跌0.05%。 值得注意的是，今天早上亚太市场整体表现也较好。日经225指数早盘收涨1.1%，报51692.7点。日本东证 指数早盘收涨0.7%。韩国股指由跌转涨。香港市场也跟随走强。恒生科技指数一度上涨超1%。 分析人士认为，A股市场走强的带动作用可能比较明显。而A股走强背后亦有利好经济数据支撑。据国家统计 局 ...

利好来了！ 如果今天继续收阳线，A股上证指数的表现将继续创造历史。而与此同时，融资余额持续增长，截至1 月8日，上交所融资余额报13060.06亿元，较前一交易日增加77.92亿元；深交所融资余额报12887.61亿 元，较前一交易日增加79.91亿元；两市合计25947.67亿元，较前一交易日增加157.83亿元。 那么，跨年行情是否一马平川？据中信建投研报，过去两年市场开年下跌有一个共性原因是全球流动性 变化和人民币的贬值压力。今年元旦市场面临的流动性环境和汇率环境明显好于前两年。人民币汇率保 持强劲，有利的外部环境或将推动A股元旦后迎来"开门红"行情。同时国内流动性环境整体宽松，也有 利于跨年行情的展开。人民币升值、科技板块利好集中释放、宏观经济预期改善及资金面积极信号等多 重利好共同推动港股开年大涨，这些利好也同样有望推动A股跨年行情的继续演绎。 值得注意的是，今天早上亚太市场整体表现也较好。日经225指数早盘收涨1.1%，报51692.7点。日本东 证指数早盘收涨0.7%。韩国股指由跌转涨。香港市场也跟随走强。恒生科技指数一度上涨超1%。 分析人士认为，A股市场走强的带动作用可能比较明显。而A股走强 ...

2026年开局，股债市场上演"冰与火之歌"。 一边是上证指数连阳突破4000点，剑指4100点大关；另一边则是债市迎头撞上"逆风"。在此背景下，超 四成债基开年即出现回撤，中长期纯债型产品成为调整"重灾区"，多只产品年内跌幅超1%；与之相 对，可转债基金表现亮眼，部分产品同期回报已超6%。 市场波动引发资金敏感流动，短短数日，至少有20家基金公司旗下债基因大额赎回被迫提升净值精度， 债券ETF也一改去年巨额流入的态势，出现显著资金外流，超567亿元资金从中撤离。 金鹰基金固定收益研究部人士对第一财经表示，年初债市或有调整压力，但资金面预期长期向好，机构 年度配置逐步展开，中等久期债券性价比或仍存，后续需重点关注银行、保险、理财配置情况。 摩根士丹利基金固定收益投资部联席总监吴慧文告诉第一财经，2026年债市核心运行逻辑将围绕对基本 面和通胀强预期和弱现实之前的差距放大和收敛展开，预计市场呈现宽幅震荡、利率中枢温和抬升的特 征。 债市开年再吹逆风 开年以来，A股市场延续此前强势，上证指数连阳多日突破4000点，并一度逼近4100点。截至1月8日收 盘，上证指数报收4082.98点，年内累计上涨2.88%。与之形 ...

固收- 2026 年度策略 - 时光倒流 20251230 摘要 中国经济不宜简单类比日本，中国企业投资和科技进步未停滞，海外投 资量级差异也导致通缩情况不同。美国投资者对贸易战关注减少，更关 注科技趋势和资本开支，中国则显现结构性业绩牛市迹象。 高质量发展强调可持续性，而非依赖基建和地产。房地产对 A 股的重要 性已大幅降低，不再是风险资产代理变量。应关注新兴产业和科技创新 带来的增长潜力。 A 股基本面已变，TMT 行业尤其是存储产业占据更重要位置，内存价格 与 A 股相关性高。房地产主要影响存量资产估值，对 GDP 贡献率下降。 房价与利率之间不存在稳定关系，消费领域受房地产市场波动影响也不 稳定，不同区域间消费与地产关系存在显著差异。 出口数据对资产定价重要，但过度依赖可能导致误判。全球通胀传导机 制显示中国长期通缩预期正在逆转，贸易流未断裂削弱了逆全球化解释 力。 预计 2026 年有降准和降息，但为配合反内卷，信贷量不太可能大幅增 加。央行可能扩大买债规模，以应对商业银行资产负债问题及社会风险 偏好提高，确保金融系统稳定。 2025 年量化模型遭遇挫折，因未能准确反映市场震荡特征。债券市场 面临利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term: Due to relatively stable and loose capital expectations, short - term bonds may be more stable, while long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may fluctuate more. The pattern of bonds having a ceiling and a floor is difficult to break, and the ten - year spot bond yield may remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. Allocate funds to focus on medium - and short - term maturities and high - grade credit bonds, and trading funds can focus on band trading opportunities for ultra - long - term maturities [9]. - Medium - and long - term: Insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. Deflation is likely to continue, which is favorable for bond futures. The coordinated increase of monetary and fiscal policies and the low - interest - rate environment make it difficult for bond yields to rise significantly [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Market performance: Last week, the treasury bond futures market showed a volatile pattern of first falling and then rising. The significant decline of 30 - year treasury bond futures at the beginning of the week was due to the concentrated selling of trading volumes. The central bank's net liquidity injection ensured the stability of short - term funds in the inter - bank market, which was the basis for the market sentiment to pick up later in the week. Market rumors also promoted the short - term repair of treasury bond futures. The linkage effect between the bond market and other markets weakened, and the performance of bond futures was stronger than expected [5]. - Performance details: Different treasury bond futures contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, TL2603 had a closing price of 112.960 and a weekly increase of 0.27%, with a trading volume of 55,995,300 and a decrease of 9,814,400 in trading volume compared to the previous week [6]. - Investment suggestions: For allocation funds, focus on medium - and short - term maturities and high - grade credit bonds; for trading funds, pay attention to band trading opportunities for ultra - long - term maturities [9]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking The report presents multiple charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), deposit - type pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, and various bond - related interest rates, but no specific analysis text is provided [12][14][15]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking The report shows data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, internal rate of return (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year contracts, but no specific analysis text is provided [43][50][58][64].

2025年12月19日，知名经济学家杜帅在解读2026年中央经济工作会议精神时表示，本次会议精准锚定中国经济发展的核心矛盾，以"稳增长、促消费、提收 入"为抓手的政策框架，既直面当下经济运行的痛点，也为高质量发展筑牢了底层逻辑，展现出清晰的问题导向与务实的施策思路。 在货币政策层面，会议将"促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升"列为重要考量，这一调整直指CPI、PPI持续低迷的长期症结。杜帅分析，物价低迷本质上反映 出市场需求端的疲软，而货币政策的导向转变，并非简单的宽松刺激，而是通过引导物价合理回升，修复市场主体的盈利预期与消费信心，为宏观经济循环 注入流动性活力，这是破解"通缩预期"的关键一步。 对于会议提出的"深入实施提振消费专项行动""制定实施城乡居民增收计划"两大举措，杜帅认为这是抓住了扩大内需的"牛鼻子"。从居民收入数据来看， 2020-2022年全国居民人均可支配收入实际增速波动明显，2023-2025年前三季度虽企稳在5%-6%区间，但收入增长的稳定性与居民消费能力的释放仍有差 距。"消费是经济增长的持久动力，而收入是消费的基础，两大举措形成'增收-消费'的正向循环，能从根本上缓解国内供强需弱的矛盾 ...

Group 1 - The expected low interest rate environment is changing, impacting investor behavior, leading to a slowdown in both entity financing and financial expansion [6] - Financial institutions such as wealth management and insurance are altering their asset allocation strategies, influenced by changes in tax policies and new fund regulations [6] - The mainstream investment strategy in the bond market is shifting from "trading" to "coupon collection," with bond prices expected to experience sideways fluctuations and slight weakening [6] Group 2 - In 2025, the bond market experienced a review where the central bank shifted from tightening to loosening, causing fluctuations in the bond market [9] - The first quarter saw the central bank pause government bond purchases, emphasizing the need to guide financial institutions to explore effective credit demand, which raised funding rates [9] - The second quarter faced uncertainties due to tariff issues, leading to a decline in export expectations and a subsequent rise in bond prices as the central bank adopted a more accommodative stance [9] Group 3 - As of November 2025, the net financing amount of credit bonds reached the highest level in five years, with local government bonds balancing out under financing constraints [14] - The cumulative issuance of credit bonds approached 13 trillion yuan, with a net inflow exceeding 2 trillion yuan, indicating robust primary supply [16] - The financing increment of credit bonds is primarily driven by industrial entities, particularly in public utilities and non-bank financial sectors, while local government financing is expected to stabilize [16] Group 4 - The credit spread has been narrowing, with the strategy of holding credit bonds for coupon collection being favored in 2025 [17] - The yield on non-financial bonds has generally fallen below 2%, making it challenging to find high-yield bonds above 2.2% [17] - The overall yield of credit bonds is fluctuating at low levels, with a widening term spread, indicating difficulty in finding high-yield targets in the industrial bond sector [20] Group 5 - The convertible bond market is experiencing a decline in issuance and a decrease in the number of outstanding bonds, leading to a shrinking market [25] - The performance of the convertible bond market improved in 2025, with the index achieving a 17.12% increase, indicating strong demand despite a shrinking supply [34] - The aging characteristics of convertible bonds are becoming more pronounced, which may deter some investors but could also enhance scarcity in the short term [26] Group 6 - The changing expectations regarding low interest rates are leading to a decrease in banks' enthusiasm for participating in bond investments [50] - In 2025, banks showed a consistent lack of interest in the bond market, with funds acting independently, resulting in a historical high duration for funds without corresponding low interest rates [54] - The reduction in credit and the increasing reliance on certificates of deposit by large banks are contributing to a widening gap in government bond supply and demand [56]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of China's self-sufficiency in manufacturing and its reluctance to engage in international trade, raising questions about the future of global trade dynamics and the concept of "Industrial Cthulhu" [4][8]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - The author highlights that during a recent trip to mainland China, the prevailing sentiment was a lack of interest in imports, as China is capable of producing everything it needs more efficiently and at lower costs [7]. - The article questions the existence of trade if the largest seller, China, is not interested in buying from others, suggesting a potential shift in global trade paradigms [8]. - The author notes that the current trade surplus for China reached $3.3 trillion by the end of October, indicating a significant imbalance in trade relationships [16]. Group 2: Industrial Innovation - The article emphasizes China's rapid advancements in various sectors, including electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and AI, showcasing its transition from a manufacturing hub to an innovation leader [12]. - It mentions that the cost of hardware for autonomous vehicles in China is less than one-third of that in the U.S., highlighting China's competitive edge in technology [12]. - The article also points out that Western pharmaceutical companies are increasingly investing in Chinese firms, recognizing their potential in innovative drug development [12]. Group 3: Economic Challenges - The author discusses the risks associated with China's high trade surplus, including the potential for increased financial risk and inefficiency in overseas dollar assets [16]. - The article suggests that China's reliance on its status as the "world's factory" may hinder the internationalization of the renminbi, as the country imports less and maintains a singular channel for offshore assets [17]. - It raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of China's economic model, which may lead to a vicious cycle of trade imbalances and reduced global competitiveness [16][17]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The article proposes a shift in narrative from a zero-sum game in trade to a collaborative approach, suggesting that countries should work together and share benefits rather than compete solely on buying and selling [18]. - It emphasizes the need for a new framework that transforms the "world factory" concept into a "world workshop + world testing ground," which could foster innovation and cooperation [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the sharp decline in housing and car prices is not an opportunity for bargain hunting but a warning signal of economic contraction [1][3][5] - The phenomenon of "price drop traps" is described as a "deflationary spiral," where continuous price declines lead consumers to delay purchases, resulting in reduced demand and a vicious cycle of layoffs and income reduction [1][3] - The essence of the housing price drop is a revaluation of assets following the burst of an asset bubble, with significant declines observed in areas like Shenzhen, where prices fell over 30% from their peak [3][5] Group 2 - The automotive price drop reveals a crisis of overcapacity in the manufacturing sector, where price cuts fail to stimulate new demand and instead create anxiety among existing car owners about depreciation [3][5] - The "debt-deflation" vicious cycle is highlighted as a core feature of the deflation trap, where falling asset prices worsen corporate balance sheets and reduce consumer spending, leading to a negative feedback loop [5][7] - The need for effective policy measures is emphasized, suggesting a balance between stabilizing expectations and structural adjustments to avoid systemic risks while promoting high-quality development [5][7] Group 3 - Companies are encouraged to adopt an "anti-deflation" mindset, focusing on enhancing product value and service income rather than engaging in price wars [7][9] - Consumers are advised to approach price fluctuations rationally and avoid speculative behaviors, recognizing the potential pitfalls of "too good to be true" deals [7][9] - The importance of managing deflationary expectations is stressed, as entrenched beliefs about price declines can lead to prolonged economic downturns [7][9]

Research Conclusion - The adjustment of the bond market in the third quarter was mainly due to two reasons: the repair of deflation expectations and regulatory policy changes. The negative impact of these two factors on the bond market will weaken in the fourth quarter [3][8]. - The bond market will "turn the corner" in the fourth quarter, but it won't happen overnight. The repair speed and rhythm in the fourth quarter are difficult to replicate those in April. The repair amplitude won't be large, and it's a relatively slow interest - rate peak - building process. The catalysts for the accelerated decline of interest rates are the relaxation of regulatory policies and the intensification of monetary policies [5][8][13]. - In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to try to slightly go long on bonds in the short term but in a cautious way. Currently, bond market investment opportunities are still in the form of bands, not trend - based long opportunities. The short - end is more stable than the long - end, and credit is more stable than interest rates. The short - duration and high - liquidity strategy of credit bonds has higher certainty [5][17]. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market Attention to September Data - China will release September's social financing, export, and inflation data, and the US will release September's PPI [18]. Seasonal Increase in Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance scale of interest - rate bonds will increase seasonally but remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years, with an expected total issuance of 443.3 billion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance of national bonds is around 261 billion yuan, local bonds is 32.3 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds is about 150 billion yuan [19][22][23]. Review and Outlook of Interest - Rate Bonds Net Withdrawal in Open - Market Operations at the Beginning of the Quarter - At the beginning of the quarter, a large number of reverse repurchases matured, resulting in a significant net withdrawal in open - market operations. After the cross - quarter period, the central bank maintained a high - level reverse - repurchase injection, with a net injection of 114 billion yuan. However, due to a large number of maturities, the final net withdrawal was 153 billion yuan. The inter - bank funds rate seasonally declined at the beginning of the quarter. The trading volume of repurchase rose to over 750 billion yuan, and the overnight proportion fluctuated around 73% on average. In terms of price, the inter - bank funds rate significantly declined compared to the end of the previous quarter. The issuance volume of certificates of deposit increased, and most prices declined [24][26][31]. Recovery of Bond - Market Sentiment at the Beginning of the Quarter - At the end of the previous quarter, the market's expectation of the central bank's injection was unstable, and the liability - side stability of asset - management products was weak, leading to a strong willingness to realize profits, and ultimately a large increase in interest rates. After the holiday, the market sentiment marginally recovered, the funds rate declined, and the expectation of the central bank's loose monetary policy resurfaced, causing bond - market interest rates to return to a downward trend. On the 11th, Trump's tariff policy caused fluctuations again, driving interest rates down rapidly. Finally, the yields of the 10 - year treasury bond and the active state - development bond decreased by 4bp and 3.65bp respectively compared to last week, reaching 1.74% and 1.93%. The yields of interest - rate bonds with various maturities mainly declined [45]. High - Frequency Data Production - Side - The operating rates were divided. The blast - furnace operating rate remained flat at 84.3%, the semi - steel tire operating rate seasonally declined from 73.6% to 55.3%, and the PTA operating rate changed from 77.5% to 77.8%. The year - on - year growth rate of the average daily crude - steel output in early September turned negative, reaching - 8.6% [54]. Demand - Side - The year - on - year growth rates of the wholesale and retail sales of passenger - car manufacturers significantly improved. In the week of September 30th, the year - on - year growth rates of the wholesale and retail sales of passenger - car manufacturers were 57% and 43% respectively. The year - on - year growth rate of the commercial - housing transaction area turned positive. In the week of October 5th, the land premium rate of 100 large - and medium - sized cities increased, the land transaction area decreased, and the year - on - year growth rate turned positive. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities seasonally declined, but the year - on - year growth rate rapidly rose to a high of 58%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indexes changed by 4.1% and - 6.7% respectively [54]. Price - Side - Considering the price changes on October 11th compared to the end of the quarter (September 30th), the crude - oil price declined, the copper and aluminum prices increased, and the settlement price of the active coking - coal futures contract increased. In the mid - stream, the comprehensive building - materials price index slightly declined, and both the cement and glass indexes decreased. The output of rebar decreased, and inventory started to accumulate again. The futures price increased by 0.6% after the holiday. In the downstream consumer sector, the prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork changed by - 1.2%, 2.3%, and - 2.8% respectively [55].