Group 1: Tariff and Economic Impact - The U.S. has extended the tariff suspension period to August 1, with new tax rates announced for 14 countries, impacting market expectations and causing a sell-off in U.S. stocks and bonds [1] - The current U.S. economy faces challenges such as declining GDP, high effective tax rates, and record fiscal and trade deficits, leading to speculation about potential tariff reductions [2] - The volatility in policy expectations, particularly regarding tariffs, is a significant factor behind the recent decline in U.S. stocks, with predictions of a further 5% adjustment if tariff threats remain unresolved [2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini predicts a "mini-stagflation shock" in the U.S. economy, with core PCE potentially reaching 3.5% by year-end, and suggests that the Fed may not lower interest rates until December [3] - Despite concerns about stagflation, corporate earnings remain strong, with S&P 500 companies reporting a 13% year-over-year profit increase, indicating resilience in certain sectors [3] Group 3: HBM Market Dynamics - The HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) market is expected to experience supply-demand tightness until 2027, driven by AI chip demand and technological advancements [7] - Major players like SK Hynix and Micron dominate the HBM market, which is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 90% from $2.3 billion in 2022 to $30 billion by 2026 [7] Group 4: Japanese Economic Challenges - Japan's real wages have seen a significant decline of 2.9% year-over-year, the largest drop in 20 months, indicating challenges in consumer purchasing power despite a rise in consumer spending [9][10] - The disparity in wage growth between unionized and non-unionized workers highlights structural imbalances in the Japanese economy, which may be further impacted by U.S. tariff policies [10][11]

Core Points - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill signed by President Trump on July 4 marks a significant legislative move, reflecting Republican priorities and diminishing Democratic political capital [1][2] - The bill extends many provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, increasing tax exemptions and military spending while cutting social welfare programs [1][3] - Critics argue that the bill disproportionately benefits high-income earners and exacerbates income inequality, with potential negative impacts on low-income households [2][6] Tax and Spending Provisions - The bill raises tax exemption thresholds, including a $25,000 exemption for tip income and a $12,500 exemption for overtime income, while also increasing military spending by $157 billion [1][3] - It eliminates subsidies for clean energy and imposes stricter work requirements for Medicaid, affecting over 7 million people by 2034 [3][4] - Food stamp benefits will be reduced for approximately 40 million people, impacting vulnerable populations including children and the elderly [3][4] Economic Implications - The effectiveness of the tax cuts in stimulating economic growth is questioned, with historical data suggesting limited impact on growth and increasing federal debt [7][8] - The new tariffs are expected to have a negative effect on the economy, with rising consumer costs and potential inflationary pressures [8][9] - Employment levels may not improve significantly, as the bill's measures to increase work requirements could overlook the contributions of undocumented workers [9] Political Context - The passage of the bill reflects a partisan divide, with Republicans leveraging their slim majority to push through legislation that may disadvantage Democrats ahead of the midterm elections [2][6][10] - The upcoming midterm elections will serve as a referendum on the bill, influencing the political landscape for both parties [10]

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 邵翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 昨晚的数据和市场表明，"心理建设"做得好，数据冲击变成"宝" ？ 前有 ADP数据 明显走弱，后有 WSJ 等媒体强调即使数据超预 期、就业也没有看上去那么好；而6月非农确实也十分"配合"： 有惊喜 ， 相比不足11万新增非农的预期，6月数据表现出极高的韧性 （边际上行至14.7万人），失业率超预期下降； 也卖了"破绽" ， 工时和薪资增长均不及预期。市场表现凸显了"正如预期"的自信甚 至自满，标普、纳指再创新高，美元也企稳反弹。 美元美股若想持续同涨，意味着 市场要放弃对美元资产的"前嫌"，但我们认为当前的条件远远不够成熟 。 美国经济并没有摆脱滞胀 的阴影，债务供需失衡以及美联储的独立性问题都可能成为新的波动之源。尤其是作为脆弱性集中点的美元，我们更倾向于这是继续 下跌之前的阶段性盘整。 对于美联储来说，这是一份相对"令人宽慰"的数据，就业短期风险可控，进一步锁定了美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate cuts in the U.S. may not effectively address the issues of government debt and stagflation, as highlighted by Minsheng Securities' chief economist Tao Chuan and his team [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - President Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which has led to increased market expectations for rate cuts this year due to disappointing recent employment data [1] - The depreciation of the dollar is causing imported inflation, which complicates the implementation of interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Impact on Debt and Wealth - The high-interest environment in the past has resulted in the private sector holding an increasing amount of U.S. government debt, suggesting that lowering interest rates could negatively impact American wealth [1]

由于7月4日是假期，本周的非农报告罕见地在周四而非周五发布。 报告特别指出："只要非农数据高于10万，股市仍将获得支撑。虽然我们视之为积极信号，但接近预测 区间下端的数据可能难以显著改善市场情绪——尤其是考虑到美联储主席鲍威尔此前关于关税影响将在 6-8月数据中显现的警告。" 周三，在非农数据公布前，标普500指数创下年内新高。 然而，6月ADP报告显示私营部门就业减少3.3 万个岗位，这令部分交易员和经济学家对预测产生动摇。 虽然ADP数据并不总能准确预测美国劳工统计局（BLS）的就业数据，但此次疲软表现确实强化了经济 可能开始失速的观点。 摩根大通设定了不同情景下的市场反应： 新增8.5万-10.5万：标普500指数可能下跌0.25%-1.5% 摩根大通交易部门模拟推演显示，若周四公布的就业数据与早前ADP报告的疲软态势相似，美国股市很 可能出现大幅抛售。 该行美国市场情报团队周三发布报告称，符合预期的就业数据可能推动股市上涨，但下行风险明显大于 上行空间。 根据道琼斯调查，经济学家普遍预测6月新增就业岗位11万个。 摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利（Michael Feroli）则预计新增12.5 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is facing significant challenges, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.5% in Q1 2025, marking the worst performance in three years [1] - The Federal Reserve is in a difficult position, unable to lower interest rates due to inflation concerns while also hesitant to raise rates amid fears of a complete economic collapse [1][2] - The uncertainty in policies has reached a new high since 1985, leading to low corporate investment and a reluctance to expand operations [2] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending has drastically declined, with a 0.1% decrease in May, marking the first negative growth of the year, and a significant drop in consumer confidence to 93, the lowest since the pandemic began [4] - The average disposable income for the lowest income group has decreased by 4.9%, which is more than double the decline experienced by higher income groups [4] Trade and Inventory Issues - A surge in imports due to preemptive stockpiling before tariffs led to a 37.9% increase in imports, negatively impacting GDP by approximately 4.7 percentage points [5] - Retail inventory levels are high, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 1.4, indicating that products are not moving off the shelves [5] Inflation and Price Pressures - Core PCE inflation is currently at 2.7%, but there are concerns that actual tariff rates could lead to a significant increase in inflation, potentially exceeding 2.8% if comprehensive tariffs are enacted [8] - Price increases are already being observed, with specific products like plush toys seeing a 42% price hike due to expiring tariff exemptions [8] International Trade Relations - The U.S. trade deficit has widened to $96.6 billion, with exports from countries like Vietnam and Thailand to the U.S. increasing by 35% in May [6][10] - Retaliatory measures from trade partners, including the EU's plan to impose tariffs on $26 billion worth of U.S. goods, could further strain U.S. agricultural exports and increase costs in the automotive sector [10]

Group 1 - The UK economy is currently facing significant challenges, with policymakers struggling between inflation control and stimulating growth [2][3][4] - The Bank of England is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in August, reducing the benchmark rate from 4.25% to 4% [2][3] - Persistent inflationary pressures, such as rising average wages and energy prices, complicate the decision-making process for the Bank of England [2][4][6] Group 2 - The fiscal framework established by Chancellor Rachel Reeves is under strain due to high inflation-linked debt interest costs, which are consuming 4.5% of the UK's GDP [19][20] - The government's commitment to not borrowing for day-to-day expenses is becoming increasingly difficult to maintain amid disappointing economic data and low tax revenues [3][21][22] - The potential for tax increases appears to be the only viable option for the government, despite the unpopularity of such measures [3][26][30] Group 3 - The UK economy is experiencing a dual pressure from stubborn inflation and weak growth, with April's economic contraction of 0.4% highlighting the severity of the situation [9][10] - The Bank of England's cautious approach to interest rate cuts reflects a lack of confidence in controlling inflation while supporting economic growth [12][14][44] - The disconnect between monetary policy and fiscal policy is creating a challenging environment, where efforts to stimulate demand through lower interest rates may be offset by fiscal tightening [31][32][33] Group 4 - Structural issues, such as stagnant productivity and low investment, are exacerbating the UK's economic challenges, with long-term solutions needed beyond short-term policy adjustments [39][50] - The reliance on high-end service exports makes the UK economy vulnerable to global trade disruptions, particularly in the context of rising protectionism [42] - The need for significant structural reforms is emphasized, focusing on supply-side improvements to enhance long-term productivity and competitiveness [50][51]

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（7月1日） 美元： 1. 高盛将美联储降息预测提前至9月。 2. 媒体：美国官员寻求缩小贸易协议范围，力争7月9日前达成协议。 3. 美国财长贝森特：未来几周、几个月内将着手寻找美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者。 4. 特朗普："太迟先生"鲍威尔和整个美联储委员会都应该为没有降息感到羞耻。 5. 美国芝加哥6月商业活动指数降至1月以来最低水平；达拉斯联储商业活动指数连续第五个月收缩。 2. 拉加德：欧元区面临通胀波动加剧的问题。 3. 韩国央行表示，第一季度净抛售29.6亿美元，以抑制韩元贬值，上一季度净抛售了37.6亿美元。 4. 韩国官员：与美国的贸易谈判将不得不在7月8日之后继续进行，首尔将寻求延长时间。有关外汇和国 防开支的问题将分别讨论。 5. 欧洲央行副行长金多斯：由于不确定性，我们必须保留所有利率选择。 6. 欧洲央行管委西姆库斯：不知道是否能在九月之前掌握所有所需的信息。任何利率变动都更有可能在 年底前发生。 6. 美联储博斯蒂克：预计今年将降息一次，2026年将降息三次；没有必要通过加息来应对通胀。 7. 美联储古尔斯比：预计不会出现1970年代式的滞胀情况。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, now expecting a cut in September instead of December, citing weaker-than-expected inflation impacts from tariffs [1] - The Goldman Sachs economic research team, led by Chief Economist Jan Hatzius, believes the probability of a September rate cut is slightly above 50%, influenced by factors such as weaker tariff effects and a softening labor market [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts rate cuts of 25 basis points in September, October, and December, lowering the terminal rate expectation from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%-3.25% [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley disagrees with Goldman Sachs, stating that the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in the near term remains low, despite market expectations increasing for a September cut [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe that most Federal Reserve officials support a cautious stance and are unlikely to quickly endorse rate cuts, anticipating a relatively stable upcoming employment report [1] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed skepticism about the possibility of a 1970s-style stagflation occurring in the current economic environment, given the current unemployment and inflation rates [2] Group 3 - Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects one rate cut in 2025 and three cuts in the following year, indicating a patient approach to maintaining current rates due to a stable labor market [3] - Bostic noted that the full impact of Trump's trade tariffs on the economy has yet to be felt, suggesting that price impacts are more a matter of timing than certainty [2]

美联储古尔斯比：预计不会出现1970年代式的滞胀情况 金十数据7月1日讯，美联储古尔斯比表示，在失业率接近4%、通胀率约为2.5%且不断下降的情况下， 他认为关税或其他供应冲击不可能在短期内造成真正的20世纪70年代式的滞胀，当时的失业率是现在的 两倍，通胀率超过13%。古尔斯比说："但绝对有可能出现两种情况同时恶化的情况。你通常会说，双 方的差异会持续多久？你认为这是暂时的还是永久的？双方的差距有多大......这就是我思考问题的方 式。"他没有对这些变量做出预测。 ...