Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergence in fiscal revenue and expenditure in April, with a notable improvement in tax revenue contributing to a more positive outlook for fiscal policy and spending [1][3][4]. Fiscal Revenue - In April, the general public budget revenue growth rate increased to 1.9% year-on-year, with tax revenue showing a significant improvement of 4.1 percentage points, marking the first positive growth this year [1][4]. - Cumulatively, tax revenue for the first four months remains at -2.1% year-on-year, with corporate income tax down by 3.1%, primarily due to low PPI [1][4][5]. - The performance of major tax categories in April was neutral, with corporate income tax contributing 1.21 percentage points to revenue growth, while personal income tax rose by 67.5% year-on-year, largely due to base effects [5][8]. Fiscal Expenditure - Fiscal expenditure showed a more positive trend, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in April and a cumulative growth of 4.6% for the first four months, exceeding the annual target growth rate of 4.4% [1][8]. - The expenditure progress for the first four months reached 31.5%, the second highest level in recent years, driven by spending on social security, education, and infrastructure projects [1][8][9]. - The issuance of ordinary government bonds was significantly advanced, contributing to the increase in fiscal spending [8][9]. Broader Fiscal Context - The government fund revenue also turned positive in April, with a year-on-year growth of 8.1%, driven by land sales and expected recovery in government fund income [2][15]. - The government fund expenditure rose sharply by 44.7% year-on-year in April, significantly outpacing revenue growth, indicating strong fiscal support for infrastructure and development projects [18][19]. - The overall fiscal revenue growth remains low, necessitating further measures to stabilize growth and expand domestic demand, with a notable fiscal deficit of 2.65 trillion yuan in the first four months [3][19].

Core Insights - The overall fiscal revenue and expenditure for the first four months of 2025 show a mixed trend, with total public budget revenue at 80,616 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while total expenditure reached 93,581 billion yuan, an increase of 4.6% [1][4] Revenue Analysis - Tax revenue for the first four months was 65,556 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 7.7% to 15,060 billion yuan [2] - Central government budget revenue was 33,928 billion yuan, a decline of 3.8%, while local government revenue rose by 2.2% to 46,688 billion yuan [2] - The completion rate of public fiscal revenue for the first four months was 36.7%, higher than the same period in 2024 and in line with the five-year average [2] Tax Revenue Breakdown - Domestic value-added tax and consumption tax both grew by 1.8%, while corporate income tax fell by 3.1% and personal income tax rose by 7.4% [2][3] - Real estate-related taxes showed mixed results, with deed tax down 15.7% and property tax up 11.2% [2][3] Expenditure Analysis - Total public budget expenditure for the first four months was 93,581 billion yuan, with central government expenditure at 12,282 billion yuan (up 9%) and local government expenditure at 81,299 billion yuan (up 3.9%) [4] - Key expenditure areas included social security and employment (up 8.5%), education (up 7.4%), and health (up 3.9%), while spending on urban and rural communities and agriculture showed a decline [4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The fiscal deficit target for the year is set at around 4%, allowing for flexibility in future policy adjustments [3] - The issuance of special bonds and long-term special treasury bonds is expected to support infrastructure spending, with a significant amount of local special bonds pending issuance [5]

从财政收入看，1—4月全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%，降幅比一季度收窄0.7个百分点。分 中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入下降3.8%，降幅比一季度收窄1.9个百分点，其中4月份增长1.6%，今年 以来首月实现正增长；地方一般公共预算收入增长2.2%，增幅与一季度持平。 从收入来源看，1—4月全国税收收入65556亿元，同比下降2.1%，降幅比一季度收窄1.4个百分点，其中4月税 收收入同比增长1.9%，今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正；全国非税收入15060亿元，同比增长7.7%，主要是多 渠道盘活资产等带动。 广发证券宏观分析师吴棋滢指出，2025年一般公共预算收入目标同比增速仅有0.1%，全年实现收入目标难度 不大。但在结构上，目前财政收入增幅仍依赖于非税收入带动。 财政部5月20日公布的2025年1—4月财政收支数据显示，在国际环境更趋复杂严峻，外部冲击影响加大的背 景下，1—4月全国公共财政收入累计降幅继续收窄，公共财政支出进度达到2020年以来同期最快；4月全国 税收收入同比增长1.9%，为今年以来月度增幅首次由负转正。 校对： 刘榕枝 百万用户都在看 在主要税收收入项目中，1 ...

Revenue Summary - In the first quarter, the national general public budget revenue was 60,189 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to January-February. March saw a monthly increase turning positive [1] - Tax revenue for the first quarter was 47,450 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue was 12,739 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year [1][3] - March's general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared to January-February, primarily driven by a narrowing decline in tax revenue [1][3] Expenditure Summary - In the first quarter, national general public budget expenditure reached 72,815 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, with March's growth accelerating to 5.7% [2] - The expenditure progress for the first quarter was 24.5%, higher than the average of 23.7% over the past five years, indicating a continuation of proactive fiscal measures [2] - Major expenditure areas included social security and employment at 13,570 billion yuan (up 7.9%), education at 11,249 billion yuan (up 7.8%), and health at 5,848 billion yuan (up 2.2%) [5] Tax Revenue Performance - In March, major tax revenues showed improvement, with VAT increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, and corporate income tax rising by 16.0%, indicating potential marginal improvement in corporate profitability [4] - Non-tax revenue growth was driven by dividends from central financial enterprises and local asset management, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% [4] - The significant decline of 58.5% in personal income tax was attributed to the timing of year-end bonuses and a high base from the previous year [4] Government Fund Overview - In the first quarter, government fund budget revenue was 9,247 billion yuan, down 11% year-on-year, while expenditure was 19,769 billion yuan, up 11.1% [6] - Revenue from state-owned land use rights fell by 15.9% to 6,849 billion yuan, with related expenditures also declining by 11% [6]

Revenue and Expenditure Trends - In March, national public budget revenue was 16,333 billion yuan, while expenditure was 27,719 billion yuan[2] - March fiscal revenue showed a slight recovery with a growth of +0.25%, but Q1 revenue was still down 1.1% year-on-year[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 2.2% in March, with a cumulative decline of 3.5% in Q1, falling short of the annual target of +3.7%[3] Fiscal Policy and Spending - Public fiscal expenditure in March grew by 5.7% year-on-year, with Q1 expenditure growth at 4.2%, slightly above the annual budget target of 4%[4] - The expenditure progress for Q1 was approximately 24.5% of the annual target, consistent with 2024 levels[4] - Social security and education expenditures increased by 9% and 8% respectively in March, while technology spending decreased by 4.8%[4] Government Fund and Debt Issuance - Government fund revenue in March was 2,866 billion yuan, down 12%, with land transfer revenue declining by 16.5%[4] - Government fund expenditure in March was 8,411 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28% year-on-year[4] - A total of 9,603 billion yuan in special bonds were issued in Q1, with issuance pace faster than in 2024 but slower than in 2022 and 2023[4] Future Outlook and Risks - The need for accelerated fiscal spending is emphasized due to potential tariff impacts and economic uncertainties[5] - Expected measures include increased consumer support and tax refunds for export enterprises[5] - Risks include potential economic downturns and insufficient policy execution[5]

Revenue Insights - In the first two months of 2025, national public budget revenue was 43,856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.6%[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue growth slowed significantly from 94% in December to 11%[3] - Individual income tax saw a substantial increase of 27% year-on-year, influenced by a low base effect from 2024[3] Expenditure Analysis - Public fiscal expenditure reached 45,096 billion yuan in January-February 2025, growing by 3.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing revenue growth[4] - Expenditure in the first two months accounted for approximately 15.2% of the annual target, slightly lower than 2024 but higher than the average of the past three years[4] - Social welfare and technology expenditures grew at a faster pace, with education and social security spending increasing by 8% and 7% respectively[4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The annual budget draft anticipates a 3.7% growth in tax revenue for 2025, although the first two months did not meet this target[4] - The government aims to reduce reliance on non-tax revenue, indicating a shift in fiscal strategy[4] - Special bond issuance has accelerated, with 9,148 billion yuan issued by March 24, 2025, representing about 20% of the annual target[5] Market Implications - The decline in land transfer revenue, down 16% year-on-year, suggests ongoing challenges in the real estate market despite previous improvements[5] - The focus of fiscal spending is shifting towards "benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption," indicating a strategic pivot in government priorities[5] - Risks include potential economic downturns and the possibility of policy execution falling short of expectations[5]