Core Viewpoint - The U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in September, slightly up from 2.7% in the previous month, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core PCE price index, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also increased by 2.8% year-on-year, down from 2.9% in the previous month [1] - Personal consumption expenditure in the U.S. increased by 0.3% month-on-month in September, a decrease from the 0.5% month-on-month growth seen in the previous three months [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Implications - The PCE price index is a key inflation indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, serving as a primary reference for monetary policy decisions [1] - Due to recent weak employment data, market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may decide to lower interest rates by 25 basis points during the monetary policy meeting scheduled for December 9-10 [1]

文|有风 编辑|有风 最近经济圈讨论得挺热闹，房地产市场忽冷忽热，返乡政策被传得五花八门，银行利率调整也牵动人 心。 著名经济学家李稻葵最近针对这几个热点接连开口，不少观点跟大家平时想的不太一样。 今天咱们就聊聊他说的房价、返乡政策和货币政策这三件事，看看能不能帮大家把思路理清楚。 房价看涨跌？李稻葵，交易量比价格更靠谱 很多人买房卖房，眼睛就盯着价格曲线，涨了怕踏空，跌了怕亏。 但李稻葵最近提醒，光看价格波动可能被忽悠，真正反映市场冷暖的是交易量。 所以李稻葵说"量在价先"，其实是让大家别被表面数字迷惑，真金白银的交易才是市场的晴雨表。 而且房市不能一刀切看全国，李稻葵特别强调，得看你所在的城市。 比如深圳南山区，年轻人往那涌，产业又撑得住，交易量可能慢慢往上走。 但有些三四线城市，人口年年往外流，就算价格暂时稳住，没交易量支撑也难长久。 身边有朋友在小城市卖房，挂了半年没动静，中介说"价格可以降10万试试"，但他发现同小区上个月才 成交一套，这种情况降价也未必有用。 这话怎么理解？举个例子，有些地方房价看着涨了，但你去中介问问，挂出去的房子三个月没成交一 套，这种价格上涨就像没根基的墙，风一吹就可能塌。 ...

新华财经北京12月5日电在美联储召开今年最后一次货币政策会议之前，对通胀的持续担忧和消费者信心的恶化让投资者感到不安。当 天（5日）盘前，处于观望中的美债市场收益率整体小幅上行。 截至新华财经发稿时，2年期美债收益率涨0.9BP至3.54%，10年期美债收益率涨1BP至4.118%，30年期美债收益率涨1.3BP至4.777%。 过去两周，市场对美联储公开市场委员会降息25BPs的预期飙升。尽管美联储官员担心通胀率会停留在2%的目标之上，但他们预计无论 如何都会在下周宣布降息，以提振低迷的就业市场。因为据芝商所美联储观察工具数据，联邦基金期货交易员周四认为，美联储下周三 降息25BPs的可能性为87%。 数据方面，周五将公布推迟已久的9月美国消费者支出数据（PCE）、密歇根大学 12月消费者调查和个人消费支出指数，美联储将利用 这些数据为其政策决策提供依据。美联储也在关注疲软的劳动力市场，但周四公布的数据显示，截至11月29日的一周，美国首次申请失 业救济人数较前一周减少2.7万人，低于预期。 贝莱德认为，9月就业报告及其他相关数据表明，美国劳动力市场正处于"不招聘、不裁员"的停滞状态。自年初以来，美国就业增 ...

Group 1: DeepSeek-V3.2 Series Release - The release of DeepSeek-V3.2 marks a significant advancement in open-source large models, achieving performance levels comparable to top closed-source models[3] - The Speciale version of DeepSeek-V3.2 has excelled in international competitions, ranking second in the ICPC and winning gold medals in the IMO, demonstrating its potential to reach human-level intelligence[4] - DeepSeek-V3.2 integrates thinking modes with tool invocation, enhancing the model's generalization and execution capabilities across complex scenarios[5] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - The 2025 Winter FORCE Conference is set to focus on Agentic AI, with significant updates expected for the Doubao model family and AI application capabilities[9] - Doubao model's daily token usage surged from 120 billion in May 2024 to over 30 trillion by September 2025, indicating a 253-fold increase in usage[10] - The report predicts that the 2026 monetary policy will emphasize "wide credit" rather than merely "wide loans," aligning with fiscal measures to support economic growth[35] Group 3: Company Coverage and Financial Projections - Faway Automobile Components (600742) is rated "Overweight" with a target price of RMB 14.10, based on stable automotive parts business and expansion into robotics and low-altitude economy[13] - Projected revenues for Faway are RMB 208.72 million, RMB 220.62 million, and RMB 231.65 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of RMB 6.30 million, RMB 6.99 million, and RMB 7.75 million[13] - The company is actively developing humanoid robots and EVTOL interior designs, leveraging its automotive parts manufacturing expertise[15]

债市预期走弱，关注配置需求支撑 国债月报 2025/12/05 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 ◆ 经济及政策：11月PMI数据显示，供需两端均有所回暖，但制造业PMI仍处于荣枯线下，服务业下滑明显，表明内需仍有待提振。新型政策性 金融工具未能完全对冲地产下行的冲击，当前需求恢复的动力不足，经济内生修复态势仍待巩固。出口方面，10月出口数据低于预期，对美 出口回落而非美地区出口增速维持韧性。四中全会强调坚决实现全年经济社会发展目标，考虑到今年前三季度经济增速较高，因此今年实现 目标的压力不大,政策面可能更多关注与明年的衔接性政策，四季度加码的必要性不强。海外方面，11月美元流动性偏紧，后续观察通胀以 及就业数据对12月降息的指示。 1、央行公告，为保持银行体系 ...

（来源：十五的投资笔记） 1、全球经济2026年预计增长3%。 预计美联储将在 2026 年降息 100 个基点。中国央行将维持适度宽松的政策取向；英国央行也将开启降息。由于通胀已接近 目标，但欧洲央行的宽松周期可能未结束。而日本央行则走向相反方向 —— 不过考虑到政治阻力与增长轨迹的不确定性， 其政策调整会较为谨慎。 4、增长与通胀不会阻碍美联储降息 美国 2026 年 GDP 增速预计将从今年的 1.8% 升至 2.3%，这得益于货币政策宽松，以及大规模资本支出激励、减税、放松 监管带来的红利。随着不确定性消退、新贸易协议有望落地，投资环境将趋于强劲——而 AI 是核心驱动力之一。预计美联 2025 年，尽管全球经济遭遇关税冲击与巨大的政策不确定性，但表现却意外强劲 —— 发达经济体与新兴经济体均展现出 韧性。展望未来，2026 年全球经济增速或将从今年的 3.4% 回落至 3%。中国经济放缓但仍高于全球整体。 2、关税推高美国通胀，拉低其它地区通胀 对美国而言，关税上调正在推高进口成本。对全球其他多数国家来说，经济增长放缓、商品寻求美国以外市场的冲击，大 概率会成为主导因素，进而压低通胀。这很大程度上取 ...

Group 1 - Japan's economic revitalisation minister, Minoru Kiuchi, emphasized the importance of communication between the central bank and the government regarding monetary policy, while not opposing a potential interest rate hike in the near term [1][2] - Kiuchi's remarks suggest that the government is unlikely to resist a decision to raise interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75% this month, reinforcing market expectations [2] - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to consider the implications of raising rates at its upcoming meeting on December 18-19, with indications that the government will accept this decision [3] Group 2 - Kiuchi oversees the Cabinet Office, which, along with the Ministry of Finance, has the authority to send representatives to BOJ policy meetings, although these representatives cannot vote [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of monetary policy in China, highlighting a shift towards a more nuanced approach that balances liquidity management and financial stability, particularly in the context of the bond market and economic growth support. Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2025 - In 2025, the overall liquidity environment is characterized as "quantitative easing plus stability," with a focus on enhancing the execution and transmission of monetary policy rather than aggressive counter-cyclical adjustments [1] - The central bank has been iterating its tools since mid-2024 to improve liquidity control and guide bond market pricing, providing relatively cheap medium- to long-term funds without signaling clear interest rate cuts [1] - The optimization of liquidity tools serves a dual purpose: to avoid concentrated speculation around loose monetary expectations while enhancing the sensitivity of major banks to central bank liquidity injections [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Goals for 2026 - The monetary policy in 2026 is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with a significant change in the target function emphasizing that "broad credit" does not equate to indiscriminate "broad loans" for households and enterprises [2] - With fiscal policy beginning to take effect, the role of monetary policy will shift towards providing a stable liquidity environment to support fiscal growth, ensuring the stability of the financial system and avoiding systemic risks [2] - The focus will be on improving interest rate transmission within the financial system and stabilizing the interest margin as a core observation indicator [2] Group 3: Central Bank Operations and Interest Rate Adjustments - The central bank is likely to continue a "quantitative easing plus stability" approach, with the overnight interest rate lower limit around OMO-10bp, and will focus on "lengthening" funding in the medium to long term [3] - The central bank may implement 1-2 interest rate cuts totaling 10-20 basis points throughout 2025 and 2026, primarily responding to key statements and unlocking long-term funding costs [3] - The timing of interest rate cuts may depend on the effectiveness of reducing bank funding costs, particularly through lowering deposit rates, potentially delaying until mid-2026 [3] Group 4: Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) Adjustments - The necessity for RRR cuts is expected to decrease, with only one potential cut of 50 basis points anticipated in 2026, likely occurring in the first quarter [4] - The central bank's motivation for RRR cuts is relatively low due to the opportunity cost of releasing long-term funds and a cautious stance on large-scale long-term funding injections [4] - Government bond purchases may serve as a substitute for RRR cuts, with the first quarter being the most probable window for any RRR adjustments [4]

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点记者 王晓莹 距离美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）现任主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔卸任还有半年时间，美国总统特朗普就迫不及待地在12月2日年内最后一次内阁会议上预告， 可能在明年1月初公布下一任美联储主席提名人选。关于鲍威尔的继任者，各方猜测过几个名字，而特朗普已表示"做好了决定"。目前，白宫国家经济委 员会主任凯文·哈西特是"头号候选人"。 凯文·哈西特 资料图 没否认也没确认 围绕降息问题，特朗普与现任美联储主席鲍威尔的矛盾早已公开化。尽管未能如愿"炒掉"鲍威尔，但特朗普早在今年8月就提过一份有三个名字的下一任 美联储主席候选人名单，分别是凯文·哈西特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什和现任美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。 目前，外界普遍认为，特朗普中意的人选是哈西特。卡尔希预测市场当天的投注数据显示，哈西特获得提名的概率已飙升至64%，而一周前这个数字还不 到40%。彭博社此前也援引知情人士的话报道称，在特朗普及其顾问和盟友眼中，哈西特是下一任美联储主席的"头号候选人"。 哈西特本人对上述消息既不否认也不确认，称"能跻身优秀候选人之列，深感荣幸"，"如果能受邀担任美联储主席，会很乐意接受"。他还表示，市场 对"特 ...

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) is currently in a consolidation phase, with expectations of strong gains for the second consecutive week due to differing monetary policy outlooks between the Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1] - The AUD/USD pair is experiencing bullish consolidation around the 0.6600 level, slightly below the two-month high reached previously, as traders await the key US inflation report [3] - The upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for October is anticipated to significantly influence the short-term price movements of the USD and provide substantial momentum for the AUD/USD pair [3] Group 2 - RBA Governor Michele Bullock acknowledged that inflation has not sustainably returned to the central bank's target range of 2%-3%, indicating that ongoing price pressures could affect future monetary policy [4] - Market speculation has arisen regarding a potential interest rate hike by the RBA next year, which is supporting the AUD and boosting the AUD/USD exchange rate [4] - Recent US macroeconomic data suggests a cooling economy, with signs of weakness in the labor market, leading traders to price in a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [3]