饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 7 日辽宁现货 14.2-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.5-15.3 元/ 公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.5-14.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定； 广东 15.4-16 元/公斤，较上一日稳定。前期二育强势进场，二育栏舍利用 率已超过一半，部分养殖户五一前后出栏，且肥标价差倒挂以及成本提升， 二次育肥进场积极性减弱，后期供应增加。需求端，天气转热，节后猪肉消 费转淡，且猪价偏高，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，不过低位二次育肥 滚动进场仍存，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节 奏、二育进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生 产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况 下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据， 2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体 重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下， 猪价有下跌风险，关注 二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动； 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限， 处 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the short - term, the prices of hog, egg, and corn will experience fluctuations. The hog market is under supply pressure with increased supply and weakening demand; the egg market has both supply and demand increasing, with short - term demand supporting prices and long - term supply pressuring prices; the corn market is supported by reduced supply from the grassroots level and decreased imports in the short - term, but faces pressure from deep - processing losses and new wheat substitution in the long - term [6][55][92]. - In the long - term, the hog price is likely to decline due to strong supply and weak demand; the egg price is under pressure from increasing supply; the corn price has an upward drive but its upside is limited by substitutes [6][55][92]. Summary by Catalog 1. Hog 1.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the national hog price was 14.94 yuan/kg, up 0.27 yuan/kg from the end of last month; the Henan hog price was 14.75 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg. The main 09 futures price closed at 13910 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the end of last month, and the 09 contract basis was 840 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton [6]. 1.2 Supply - The inventory of breeding sows increased steadily from May to November 2024, with improved performance. From April to September, the supply is on the rise. The inventory decreased slightly from December 2024 to January 2025, rebounded in February, and decreased by 0.66% month - on - month in March, still 3.56% higher than the normal level. The supply pressure remains in the fourth quarter. The number of piglets increased year - on - year from November 2024 to February 2025, so the second - quarter slaughter pressure is high. The planned slaughter volume of enterprises in April increased month - on - month, the slaughter weight increased, and the fat - to - standard price difference was inverted [6][17]. 1.3 Demand - The monthly slaughter enterprise's开工 rate first decreased and then increased. After the May Day holiday, the pork market demand will weaken, but it will improve near the Dragon Boat Festival. However, the slaughter enterprises are still in loss, and the demand increment is limited. In April, the average daily slaughter of key slaughter enterprises was 121412 heads, up 4.62% from the previous month and 8.52% year - on - year; the slaughter gross profit was - 30 yuan/head, down 4.5 yuan/head from the previous month; the national frozen product inventory was 16.84%, down 0.01% from the end of last month and 0.46% from last year [6]. 1.4 Cost and Profit - The monthly piglet price decreased slightly, the breeding sow price was stable, and the breeding profit improved. As of April 30, the 15 - kg piglet sales price was 649 yuan/head, down 10 yuan/head from the end of last month; the binary sow price was 1634 yuan/head, unchanged from the end of last month. The breeding cost of enterprises with 5000 - 10000 sows was 13.31 yuan/kg, down 0.24 yuan/kg from the previous month; the cost of purchasing piglets for breeding was 13.87 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan/kg from the previous month. The self - breeding and self - raising profit of hogs was 145.34 yuan/head, up 24.34 yuan/head from the end of last month; the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 118.88 yuan/head, up 87.95 yuan/head from the previous month [6]. 1.5 Strategy Suggestion - Under the background of increased and postponed supply, the hog price is under pressure, but the futures discount has already reflected the weak expectation, so the decline is limited. It is recommended to gradually stop profiting on short positions and short at high prices after a rebound. For the 07 contract, the resistance level is 13800 - 13900, and the support level is 13200 - 13300; for the 09 contract, the resistance level is 14600 - 14700, and the support level is 13700 - 13800. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices, partially stop profiting, and re - enter after a rebound [6]. 2. Egg 2.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.19 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the end of March; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.22 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin. The main 06 contract closed at 2942 yuan/500 kg, up 74 yuan/500 kg from the end of March; the main contract basis was 58 yuan/500 kg, 86 yuan/500 kg stronger than at the end of March. The egg price first rebounded and then declined, and the futures followed the spot price [55]. 2.2 Supply - In May, the number of newly - opened laying hens corresponding to the replenishment in January 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, with a large opening volume. Coupled with the non - increasing elimination of old hens, the supply continued to accumulate. In the long - term, the high replenishment volume from February to April 2025 means more newly - opened laying hens from June to August 2025, and the long - term supply increase trend is difficult to reverse. In April 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.329 billion, an increase of 0.011 billion month - on - month and 0.089 billion year - on - year [55]. 2.3 Demand - In early April, the downstream replenishment demand after the Tomb - sweeping Festival and the approaching May Day holiday boosted the egg price. After the May Day holiday, the channel may have replenishment demand, and the Dragon Boat Festival stocking demand increases, so the seasonal consumption of eggs improves. As of the end of April, the monthly sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas was 29500 tons, up 1.99% from March [55]. 2.4 Strategy Suggestion - The 06 contract is expected to fluctuate in a range after the May Day holiday. Pay attention to the performance of the 3100 resistance and 2900 support levels. Treat the 08 and 09 contracts with a bearish view in general, and pay attention to the impact of feed and elimination [55]. 3. Corn 3.1 Market Review - As of April 30, the平仓 price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2280 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton from the end of March; the main 2507 contract of corn was 2377 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton from the end of March; the main contract basis was - 97 yuan/ton, 1 yuan/ton stronger than at the end of March. The corn price first fluctuated narrowly and then rose rapidly at the end of the month, and the futures contract first fell and then rose [92]. 3.2 Supply - The grassroots grain sales are basically over, and the grain source has transferred to the trading end. Traders are reluctant to sell, and the supply is tight, which supports the price. However, after the price rises in May, traders' willingness to sell at high prices may increase, and there is a demand for making room for wheat in North China, which will increase the supply periodically. In March, the corn import was 80000 tons, the same as the previous month and a 95.3% year - on - year decrease. The import of international grains decreased year - on - year [92]. 3.3 Demand - The inventory of hogs and poultry is increasing, which drives the recovery of feed demand. Although wheat substitution has an impact on corn feed demand, it has not been carried out on a large scale, and the cost - effectiveness of corn is still high. The deep - processing industry is in loss, the operating rate has declined, and the demand increment is limited. As of April 25, the weekly feed corn inventory days were 35.74 days, an increase of 2.15 days from the end of March; the operating rate of sample deep - processing enterprises was 58.37%, a decrease of 5.45% from the end of March [92]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion - Generally, take a stable - to - strong view. Wait for the futures to pull back to go long, and be cautious about chasing high prices. For the 07 contract, pay attention to the 2400 resistance and 2280 - 2300 support levels; for the 09 contract, pay attention to the 2320 - 2330 support level [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The overall supply of live pigs is increasing and shifting backward, causing downward pressure on prices. However, the futures market has already factored in the weak expectations, limiting the decline. Egg prices are expected to face a short - term supply - demand imbalance after the May Day holiday, and long - term supply is likely to increase. For oils, short - term prices have upward momentum, but long - term supply increases may lead to price fluctuations. The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to be weak, while the long - term is strong. Corn prices are expected to be stable with an upward trend, but the upside is limited [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On April 29, the spot price of live pigs in Liaoning was 14.3 - 15 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.6 - 15.2 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 15.4 - 16 yuan/kg, stable. In the short term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and prices fluctuate frequently. In the long term, from April to September 2024, supply increases, and the second quarter of 2025 still faces large supply pressure. The strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options for contracts 07 and 09 at high prices [1]. Eggs - On April 29, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.39 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan/jin. Short - term egg prices are affected by supply - demand factors, and there is a risk of decline after the May Day holiday. Long - term supply is expected to increase. The 06 contract is recommended to be held with a light position during the holiday, and contracts 08 and 09 are considered bearish [2]. Oils - On April 29, the US soybean oil main contract rose 1.53% to 50.46 cents/lb, and the Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 0.55% to 4058 ringgit/ton. Palm oil exports increased in April, but production also increased, and inventory is expected to rise. Domestic palm oil will face increased supply in the second quarter. Soybean oil has large supply pressure in the second quarter in China. Rapeseed oil has a tight supply in Canada, and domestic inventory is expected to decrease in the second quarter. Short - term prices are supported, but long - term supply increases may limit the upside [4][5][6]. Soybean Meal - On April 28, the US soybean 07 contract rose 3.25 cents to 1062.5 cents/bu. Short - term prices are expected to decline with increased supply, while long - term prices are expected to rise due to cost increases and weather factors. The 09 contract is recommended to be short - sold in the short term and long - bought in the long term [8]. Corn - On April 28, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2230 yuan/ton, stable; the closing price was 2270 yuan/ton. The short - term spot price is supported, and the futures market fluctuates at a high level. In the long term, supply - demand tightness drives prices up, but the upside is limited. The strategy is to wait for a callback to buy [9]. Futures Market Overview - The report provides the prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot products on April 28 - 29, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc [10].

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 2)增重利润决定临界出栏均重，季节性等需求因素产生扰动。决定散户是否 销售生猪的机制是若其商品猪延后一天出栏，该天是否有超额收益，即当日 收益是否为正。当压栏边际收益（当日售价-当日增重成本）为负时，压栏 猪只或将集中释放，核心触发条件为猪价与出栏均重坐标跌破临界出栏均重 曲线。而饲养温度及原材料价格影响料肉比进而影响增重成本、标肥需求影 响销售均价，以上因素共同导致增重利润产生波动。 2、现阶段如何看待行业压栏、二次育肥？ 1)供应阶段性缺口&库存需求驱动春节后猪价偏强。供应端：集团场 2024 年 10-12 月提前超量出栏（完成率 104%-106%），阶段性透支年后供应，叠 加散户春年前集中出售大猪，导致春节后大猪缺口显著，标肥价差上行，刺 激新一轮压栏，出栏均重持续增长。2）需求端：屠宰场因库容低位主动分 割入库，3 月轮储 2.27 万吨，叠加二育资金进场（4 月中旬二育销量占比 9.73%，栏位利用率升至 45%），带动短期猪价震荡偏强。 2)库存累积与需求转弱埋下抛售隐患。供应压力加剧：截至 2025 年 3 月小 猪（50kg 以下）存栏达 73.7 万头，处于近 ...

研究院 农产品组 研究员 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 010-64405663 baixuyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 010-64405663 xuejunyuan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|养殖周报 2025-04-27 二次育肥进场减缓，生猪价格维持震荡 策略摘要 生猪观点 ■ 市场分析 供应端来看，本周集团出栏较上周保持平稳，养殖端二次育肥的需求目前有所下降， 体重偏小的标猪出栏量也同步减少，年后入场的二次育肥的已经到了出栏窗口期，叠 加五一节的备货需求，预计下周出栏会呈现一定的增加趋势。 消费端来看，本周屠宰端的开工保持平稳，没有较大的变化。同时冻品库存的增长也 非常缓慢，价格偏高导致冻品和二育的需求无法快速增长。五一节日即将来临，需要 重点关注五一节的备货情况，可能给需求端带来一定的提振作用。 综合来看，短期来看，短期来看二次育肥的滚动入场和养户的惜售心态仍在延续，下 周五一前的备货需求也 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week (4.21 - 4.27), the spot price of live pigs fluctuated and adjusted, with the futures price showing weak performance. The average slaughter weight increased slightly, and the basis widened. Looking ahead to next week (4.28 - 4.30), the spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the pressure on the spot price is expected to increase in May. The trading logic of the futures market is gradually returning to the industrial logic, and attention should be paid to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [1][2][3] Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (4.21 - 4.27) Spot Market - The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 45.1 yuan/kg (45.2 yuan/kg last week), the price of live pigs in Henan was 14.95 yuan/kg (15.07 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1,635 yuan/head (unchanged from last week). The group's slaughter progress was basically in line with expectations, and retail farmers still had a sentiment of reluctant to sell. The demand for secondary fattening procurement remained at a relatively high level. The average national slaughter weight was 126.32KG (126KG last week), with a month - on - month increase of 0.25% [1] Futures Market - The highest price of the LH2509 contract of live pig futures this week was 14,580 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,530 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,150 yuan/ton (13,875 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 800 yuan/ton (605 yuan/ton last week) [2] Next Week's Market Outlook (4.28 - 4.30) Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs is expected to fluctuate weakly. During the off - season, the group's adjustment of slaughter has a significant impact on prices. In April, secondary fattening continued to purchase and hold pigs, and the weight continued to increase. The spot price remained in a high - level oscillation. The progress of secondary fattening replenishment was nearly half, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs in the north and south was inverted. In terms of supply, after the replenishment from February to April, the vacancy rate of pens for retail farmers and secondary fattening has decreased, and the inventory accumulation progress has accelerated. The group's slaughter progress is in line with the plan, and the increase in slaughter volume in the second quarter is limited, with a more obvious increase in the third quarter. In terms of demand, it is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand will drop significantly compared with the peak before the Spring Festival. However, the demand for frozen - to - fresh conversion has increased, and the total slaughter volume has increased year - on - year, maintaining an increasing trend in April. In terms of driving factors, the frozen product port is limited by the expected price peak and capital pressure, and hopes to start warehousing at a price of 13.5 yuan/kg or lower. The import tariff has a limited impact on the total volume, and the cost transmission range exists. Overall, there is still speculative demand support in mid - to - late April, and the inventory accumulation situation has not reached the critical point, but the price difference between the north and south is inverted, and the willingness to replenish at high prices has decreased. It is expected that the spot pressure will increase in May [2] Futures Market - The price of the LH2505 contract closed at 14,150 yuan/ton on April 25. The trend of the September contract this week confirmed the cooling of tariff and macro - sentiment, and the trading logic is gradually returning to the industrial logic. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment increased significantly in April, and the overall progress has exceeded half. Although the spot price is running strongly, the increase is less than that in the secondary fattening driving stage in previous years, which confirms that the total inventory is not low. As the temperature rises, the price difference between fat and lean pigs in the north and south is inverted. It is expected that the pressure on the spot price will increase in May, and attention should be paid to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [3] Basis and Spread - This week, the basis was 800 yuan/ton, and the spread between LH2507 and LH2509 was - 610 yuan/ton [9] Supply - The data shows the national piglet inventory and the inventory of breeding sows, but specific numerical information is not provided in the text. The weekly average weight was 126.32KG (126KG last week). In February, the pork production was 3.655 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.5%; in March, the pork import was 91,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.62% [13] Price - The report presents various price charts, including the price trends of live pigs in Henan and Shandong, the average national wholesale price of pork, the average price trend of sows, the price trend of piglets, the ratio of pig to grain, and the cross - regional price difference trends, but specific numerical information is not provided in the text [13][14] Demand - The report shows charts of the weekly fresh sales rate of white - striped pork and the daily slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises, but specific numerical information is not provided in the text [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Strategy suggestion: Wait for a rebound and then conduct short - selling operations [7] - Market review: The hog price faced downward pressure and declined. The main contract dropped by 2.18% on a weekly basis [8][11] - Market outlook: On the supply side, the entry of secondary fattening decreased. As the May Day holiday approached, some breeders and secondary fatteners sold large hogs, leading to an increase in the average slaughter weight. The spread between standard and fat hogs turned positive, and the prices of feed raw materials rose, increasing the risk of secondary fattening. The pressure caused by the postponed supply may gradually emerge. According to the hog breeding cycle, the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the second and third quarters, and the medium - term supply pressure is expected to increase. On the demand side, the slaughterhouse operating rate rose again last week. As the May Day holiday approaches, the terminal demand may improve later, and the operating rate may maintain a slight upward trend. There are still passive inventory - building phenomena in a few regions. The basis of the main hog contract has retracted from a deep discount to a relatively normal range. In the short term, there is a game between supply and demand, and the hog price will fluctuate. However, the medium - term fundamentals are bearish, and it is expected that the market center will move down slightly in the future [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Strategy: Wait for a rebound and short - sell [7] - Market review: The hog price declined, with the main contract down 2.18% weekly [8][11] - Outlook: Supply pressure may increase in the medium - term, while short - term demand may improve. The price will fluctuate in the short term and move down slightly in the medium - term [8] 3.2 Futures Market Situation - Price change: The futures price fell, and the main contract dropped by 2.18% on a weekly basis [11] - Net position and warehouse receipt: As of April 25th, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased by 822 lots to 15,367 lots compared with last week, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 150 to 665 lots [18] 3.3 Spot Market Situation - Basis: On Friday, the basis of the May hog contract was 985 yuan/ton, and that of the September contract was 950 yuan/ton [22] - Hog and piglet prices: This week, the national average hog price was 14.96 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from last week and 2.19% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and up 0.86% from last month [29] - Pork and sow prices: As of the week of April 17th, the national average pork price was 26.08 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [33] - Pig - grain ratio: As of the week of April 16th, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.72, up 0.01 from the previous week [37] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Sow inventory: In March 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, a decrease of 270,000 from the previous month and an increase of 1.17% year - on - year, equivalent to 103.6% of the normal inventory. Among the 208 sample enterprises, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.08% month - on - month and 4.83% year - on - year in March, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased slightly by 0.41% month - on - month and 11.89% year - on - year [42] - Hog inventory: In Q1 2023, the national hog inventory was 41.731 million, a decrease of 1.012 million from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 881,000 year - on - year. In March, the inventory of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.27% month - on - month and 6.32% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 2.57% month - on - month and 12.37% year - on - year [45] - Slaughter volume and weight: In March, the slaughter volume of commercial hogs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 17.43% month - on - month and 22.65% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 5.01% month - on - month and 76.16% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary hogs this week was 124.04 kg, an increase of 0.03 kg from last week [48] 3.5 Industry Situation - Breeding profit: As of April 25th, the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was 53.53 yuan/head, an increase of 31.74 yuan/head compared with last week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 100.16 yuan/head, an increase of 20.71 yuan/head compared with last week. The profit of poultry breeding was 0.05 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head week - on - week [53] - Import volume: From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but it was at a historically low level [58] - Substitute products: As of the week of April 25th, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.5 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of April 24th, the average price difference between standard and fat hogs was 0.1 yuan/kg, with the spread narrowing by 0.12 yuan/kg compared with last week [61] - Feed situation: As of April 24th, the spot price of soybean meal was 4,062.29 yuan/ton, an increase of 667.15 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,279.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.57 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of April 25th, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index increased by 1.31% compared with last week, while the price of fattening hog compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of March 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.7772 million tons, an increase of 142,800 tons year - on - year [67][70][74] - CPI: As of March 2025, the year - on - year CPI decreased by 0.1%, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared with last month [78] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Slaughter and inventory: In the 17th week, the operating rate of slaughterhouses was 27.19%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points compared with last week and 0.41 percentage points higher year - on - year. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughterhouses was 17.45%, a slight increase of 0.04 percentage points compared with last week [81] - Slaughter volume and catering consumption: As of February 2025, the slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises was 21.77 million, a decrease of 42.95% compared with the previous month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [86] 3.7 Hog Stocks The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content is provided [87]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In April, the spot market for live pigs rose, boosted by China's increased tariffs on imported soybeans, corn, and meat products from the US and the rising enthusiasm for secondary fattening. The futures market first rose and then adjusted, with the overall center of gravity higher than in March. The LH07 contract was significantly weaker than other contracts due to concerns about increased supply pressure in July. Based on the official data of breeding sows and piglet birth data, the theoretical slaughter volume in the second and third quarters of 2025 is expected to remain high. With the active entry of secondary fattening in late April, attention should be paid to the pressure of live inventory destocking. The market should be treated with a shock perspective, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling high and buying low between July and September contracts [1][3][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In April, the live pig spot market rose, and the futures market first rose and then adjusted, with the overall center of gravity higher than in March. The LH05 contract converged to the spot price as it approached delivery, causing the basis to weaken and the LH5 - LH7 spread to widen significantly. The LH07 contract was weaker due to concerns about increased supply in July [3]. 2. Pig Industry Dynamics - **Shrinking Pig Production Capacity**: As of the first quarter, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.39 million, a year - on - year increase of 470,000 (1.2%) but a slight month - on - month decrease. It was 103.5% of the target inventory of 39 million, close to the upper - middle range of the green and reasonable production capacity regulation area. Considering the low profit of pig prices, the pig production capacity is expected to remain stable with a slight decline [5]. - **Adequate Theoretical Supply in the Second and Third Quarters**: Since August last year, the number of piglets born in sample enterprises has continued to increase month - on - month. In 2025, the number of piglets born has increased month - on - month, indicating sufficient supply and high theoretical slaughter volume in the second and third quarters [8]. - **High Inventory Indicated by Feed Production and Sales**: In March, the production and sales of piglet feed increased month - on - month, slightly lower than the seasonal growth rate. The production of fattening pig feed in March showed normal seasonal growth. Considering the lower decline from December to February compared with previous years, the pig inventory is still high [10]. - **Accumulating Live Inventory and Attention to Destocking Rhythm**: Since April, the price difference between fat and standard pigs has continued to decline, and the average weight after slaughter has returned to a level close to last year. With the passive entry of secondary fattening and the increase in the utilization rate of fattening houses, attention should be paid to the live inventory destocking rhythm and potential supply pressure when the temperature rises [13]. - **Relatively Stable Slaughter and Frozen Product Inventory Reaching Last Year's Level**: In April, the slaughter volume of domestic sample enterprises was relatively stable compared with the previous month and slightly increased year - on - year. The slaughter gross profit in April declined compared with the previous month but was better than last year. The demand is slightly better than the same period last year. The frozen product inventory has approached last year's level [17][19]. - **Increased Piglet Cost and Higher Out - of - Pen Cost for Purchased Piglets**: After the Spring Festival, pig prices fluctuated at a low level and slightly rose in late April, with the breeding profit remaining at a small profit level. Since January, the continuous increase in piglet prices has led to a significant increase in the out - of - pen cost for purchased piglets. The theoretical out - of - pen cost for purchased piglets will rise to the range of 15 - 16 yuan/kg [22]. 3. Conclusion and Market Outlook - The situation in April was similar to the core viewpoints. The market should be treated with a shock perspective, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling high and buying low between July and September contracts [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - April is a critical month for the pig market, often signaling positive changes in market trends [2][6] Group 1: Seasonal Factors - The transition from cold to warm weather in April leads to increased consumer activity, contributing to a rise in demand for pork [3] - The May Day holiday further boosts market sentiment and consumption [3] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - April and May are peak months for secondary fattening, which, while not altering overall supply and demand, affects the supply rhythm and consequently influences pig prices [4][6] - The current market shows a significant price increase, with the average price of external three yuan pigs rising from 14 yuan/kg to 15 yuan/kg by the end of April [7] Group 3: Short-term Outlook - The short-term outlook for pig prices is stable with slight upward movement expected, but the increase will be limited [8] - Three main supporting factors for this stability include: 1. High enthusiasm for secondary fattening due to a shift in the industry towards shorter-term farming practices [9] 2. Increased consumption trends, particularly around holidays, leading to higher purchasing activity from slaughterhouses [12] 3. Rising costs due to increased feed prices, which has led to a stronger willingness among farmers to maintain prices [13] Group 4: Long-term Concerns - The long-term outlook remains concerning due to a persistent supply surplus and high production capacity, which could lead to market pressures if prices do not rise as expected [15] - The overall economic environment is expected to remain challenging, potentially impacting consumer demand for pork [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market logic is gradually returning to the industrial logic. The sentiment of secondary fattening has been positive since April, with the spot price mainly showing a strong upward trend. The May contract is narrowing the basis spread upwards, while the far - month contracts are suppressed by the selling expectation. The industry's continuous profitability time has exceeded expectations, and the near - term inventory accumulation pattern remains unchanged. The far - month contracts offer relatively high hedging profits, so attention should be paid to hedging opportunities while being cautious about setting stop - loss and take - profit levels [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This Week's Market Review (4.14 - 4.20) - **Spot Market**: The live pig price showed a strong and volatile trend. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 45.2 yuan/kg (the same as last week), the live pig price in Henan was 15.07 yuan/kg (up from 14.82 yuan/kg last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1635 yuan/head (the same as last week). On the supply side, the group's slaughter progress was basically in line with expectations, and the slaughter of individual farmers decreased. On the demand side, the difference between frozen and fresh meat prices continuously supported demand, and the procurement demand for secondary fattening increased. The average slaughter weight nationwide this week was 126KG (up from 125.64KG last week), with a month - on - month increase of 0.29% [1]. - **Futures Market**: The live pig futures price showed a strong upward trend. The highest price of the LH2505 contract this week was 13890 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13470 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13875 yuan/ton (compared to 13380 yuan/ton last week). The basis of the LH2505 contract was 1195 yuan/ton (down from 1440 yuan/ton last week) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (4.21 - 4.27) - **Spot Market**: The live pig spot price will fluctuate and adjust. Since March, the group's adjustment of slaughter volume has had a significant impact on prices. Secondary fattening has continuously purchased and held pigs, and the pig weight has continued to increase. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the market expectation is weak, which stimulates secondary fatteners to sell before the festival. There may be a wave of selling, which will further narrow the price difference between fat and lean pigs, and the spot performance will continue to exceed expectations. In terms of supply, the vacancy rates of individual farmers and secondary fattening pens are relatively high. High - weight pigs will be sold according to the market, while small - weight pigs will continue to be held. The group's slaughter progress is in line with the plan. According to the sow plan, the increase in slaughter volume in the second quarter is limited, and the increase in the third quarter will be more obvious. In terms of demand, it is currently the off - season for consumption, and the demand will drop significantly compared to the peak before the Spring Festival. However, the demand for converting frozen meat to fresh meat has increased, and the total slaughter volume has increased year - on - year. It is expected that there will also be a small seasonal increase in April. In terms of driving factors, the frozen product sector is limited by the expected price peak and capital pressure, and hopes to start warehousing at a price of 13.5 yuan/kg or lower. Import tariffs have limited impact on the total volume, and the cost transmission range is also limited. Pigs weighing around 300 catties have seen an increased volume of selling before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and there is still a willingness to enter the market after the festival. In general, there is still speculative demand support in mid - to - late April, and the inventory accumulation situation has not reached the critical point [3]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2505 contract closed at 13875 yuan/ton on April 18th. As tariff and macro - sentiment cool down, the trading logic is gradually returning to the industrial logic. Since April, the sentiment of secondary fattening has been positive, and the spot price has mainly shown a strong upward trend. The May contract is narrowing the basis spread upwards, while the far - month contracts are suppressed by the selling expectation. Many groups have announced a significant decrease in the breeding cost in March, mainly due to cost reduction driven by management and efficiency improvement. The industry's continuous profitability time has exceeded expectations, and the near - term inventory accumulation pattern remains unchanged. The far - month contracts offer relatively high hedging profits. The short - term support level of the LH2505 contract is 13000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: This week, the basis was 1195 yuan/ton, and the calendar spread between LH2505 and LH2507 was 215 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply**: The average weight this week was 126KG (compared to 124.64KG last week). In February, the pork production was 3.655 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.5%, and the pork import volume was 83,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% [12].