Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. federal government shutdown, now in its 42nd day, is significantly impacting the airline industry, leading to staff shortages and flight limitations, causing travel difficulties for millions of passengers [1] Group 1: Impact on Airlines - Delta Airlines had to divert a flight from Puerto Rico to Atlanta to Birmingham, requiring passengers to disembark with all personal belongings, and due to pilot duty time limits, passengers could not return home that day [1] - A Southwest Airlines captain discussed the effects of the government shutdown on air travel during a delay on a flight from New York to Dallas, urging passengers to contact their supportive lawmakers to help end the shutdown [1]

Core Points - The U.S. federal government shutdown has lasted for 41 days, leading to significant absenteeism among air traffic controllers, which has caused widespread disruption in the aviation industry [1][2] - President Trump has urged air traffic controllers to return to work immediately, threatening substantial pay cuts for those who do not comply [1][4] - The Federal Aviation Administration reported that absenteeism rates among air traffic controllers at the 30 largest airports reached between 20% and 40% during the shutdown [2] Summary by Sections Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown has resulted in many air traffic controllers taking sick leave or retiring, exacerbating staffing shortages in the air traffic control system [1] - Major airports across the U.S. are experiencing significant flight delays and cancellations, which could severely affect holiday travel plans [1] Flight Disruptions - On November 9, nearly 3,000 flights were canceled, and over 11,000 flights were delayed; on November 10, approximately 2,380 flights were canceled and 8,900 flights were delayed [2] - The FAA has mandated flight reductions at 40 major airports, increasing from a 4% reduction on November 7 to a 10% reduction by November 14 [2] Air Traffic Controller Situation - Air traffic controllers have been working without pay for over 40 days, with many only able to take one day off per week and working up to 10 hours a day [6] - The National Air Traffic Controllers Association has warned that air traffic controllers should not be used as political pawns in the government shutdown and has called for Congress to act swiftly to end the shutdown [6] Legislative Actions - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill with a vote of 60 in favor, which still requires approval from the House of Representatives and the President's signature to take effect and end the shutdown [6]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The U.S. Senate reached a compromise to advance a spending bill aimed at ending the federal government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025[1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) year-end target balance is maintained at approximately $850 billion, despite previous fluctuations due to the shutdown and other factors[1] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. dropped to 50.3, marking a three-and-a-half-year low, while inflation expectations slightly increased from 4.6% to 4.7%[10] Group 2: Market Performance - Over 90% of S&P 500 companies reported Q3 earnings, with 82% exceeding EPS expectations and overall earnings growing nearly 12% year-over-year[2] - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 3% last week, marking its worst weekly performance since April, with tech stocks losing approximately $800 billion in market value[9] - Retail investors continue to buy on dips, providing support for the U.S. stock market despite high valuations[2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is debating the timing and extent of potential interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for caution due to high inflation and economic data delays caused by the government shutdown[9][21] - Market expectations indicate one more rate cut in December 2025 and two additional cuts in 2026[23] - Risks include stronger-than-expected economic data that could delay rate cuts and weaken support for risk assets[3][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The potential end of the US government shutdown boosted market sentiment, causing stock indices to open higher today. However, they trended downward after the opening and fluctuated until the close, with the total trading volume of the two markets falling below 2 trillion yuan again. The basis of stock index futures declined, and the open interest decreased, indicating a stronger willingness among long - position holders to exit. With a relatively quiet information environment, on one hand, the long - term high - level oscillation has increased the willingness of funds to take profits, leading to a correction pressure on the index; on the other hand, policy expectations provide relatively strong support at the lower level of the index. Therefore, the index is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the economic data to be released this week to further verify the recovery of the fundamentals [4] Market Review - Stock indices closed lower today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 0.91%. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 180.868 billion yuan. Stock index futures all declined with reduced trading volume [2] Important Information - The State Council General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment, including expanding market access, removing bottlenecks, and strengthening guarantees - There is a glimmer of hope in the US government shutdown crisis! The Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill on Sunday to fund the government until next January [3] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5] Futures Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.84 | 11.04 | 0.3615 | 26.3184 | -0.5129 | | IH | -0.58 | 5.0142 | 0.4232 | 9.4744 | -0.1967 | | IC | -0.79 | 11.2484 | -1.0252 | 24.1256 | -0.8077 | | IM | -0.30 | 18.6082 | -0.8391 | 35.4095 | -0.0582 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | -0.39 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | -1.03 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.11 | | Total Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 19935.86 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | -1808.68 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - European stocks are expected to continue their positive trend due to the impending end of the U.S. government shutdown [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.K.'s FTSE index is projected to open 0.6% higher [1] - Germany's DAX is anticipated to rise by 0.3% [1] - France's CAC 40 is also expected to increase by 0.3% [1] - Italy's FTSE MIB is forecasted to gain 0.37% [1] Group 2: Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate passed a bill to fund the federal government through January, effectively ending the longest shutdown in U.S. history [2] - The bill received a 60-40 vote, with support from some Democratic senators and nearly all Republicans [2] - Following Senate approval, the bill will be sent to the House of Representatives for further consideration [2]

Core Points - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary federal funding bill on November 10, ending a record 41-day government shutdown that began on October 1 due to the failure to pass a new funding bill [1] Group 1 - The government shutdown lasted for a record 41 days, marking a significant disruption in federal operations [1] - The temporary funding bill was necessary to prevent further financial instability within the federal government [1] - The passage of the bill indicates a resolution to the immediate funding crisis faced by the government [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It analyzes data from multiple agricultural and energy commodities, as well as currency exchange rates, to offer insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities [1][6][8][16][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures, including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4124.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.02% and an overnight increase of 0.32% [1]. - Latest prices and percentage changes are given for multiple currency indices, such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index is at 99.56, with a 0.02% increase [1]. Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are presented for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8780, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [3]. Important Fundamental Information Region Weather - In Brazil, rainfall may increase in the coming week, which is beneficial for soybean crops. However, growers may be concerned about soil moisture for soybean germination and early growth. In Argentina, current weather is favorable for soybean sowing, but long - term models suggest a possible return to dry conditions [6]. International Supply - Demand - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of October increased by 4.4% to 2460000 tons, with production up 11.02% to 2040000 tons and exports up 18.58% to 1690000 tons [8]. - AmSpec and ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% and 12.28% respectively compared to the same period last month [8][9]. - India's soybean oil imports in 2025 may jump by about 40% to 4.7 - 4.9 million tons, while palm oil imports are expected to drop to about 8 million tons [9]. - US soybean and corn harvests are nearly complete, with a 96% soybean harvest rate and a 92% corn harvest rate [9]. - As of November 6, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1088577 tons, in line with expectations [10]. - As of November 8, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 58.4%, and AgRural reported a 61% sowing rate as of last Thursday [10]. - Anec data shows Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for the weeks of October 26 - November 1 and November 2 - 8 [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index ended a four - day increase, mainly due to the decline in Capesize ship freight rates [11]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 10, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 40300 tons, a 104% increase from the previous trading day [12]. - On November 10, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 193600 tons, an increase of 129700 tons from the previous day. The overall operating rate of oil mills was 56.06%, up 5.26% from the previous day [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 597300 tons, a 0.76% increase from the previous week and a 10.86% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1157200 tons, a 4.82% decrease from the previous week but a 5.09% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key domestic regions was 2204700 tons, a 5.16% decrease from the previous week but an 8.52% increase year - on - year [13]. - As of November 10, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 767077 tons, a decrease of 50337 tons from the previous week [13]. - The estimated production, import, and consumption of edible vegetable oil in China for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided [13]. - On November 10, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, while the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.5% [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 64.1%, and Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point cut in December is appropriate [16]. - The US Senate advanced a federal government temporary appropriation bill, which may end the 40 - day government shutdown, but its passage in the House is uncertain [16]. - The Eurozone's November Sentix Investor Confidence Index is - 7.4, lower than the expected - 4 [16]. Domestic News - On November 10, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0856, up 20 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [18]. - On November 10, the People's Bank of China conducted 1199 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 416 billion yuan [18]. - The US will suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year, which is a step towards implementing the Sino - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultation consensus [18]. Fund Flows On November 10, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 18.119 billion yuan, including 9.752 billion yuan in commodity futures (592 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 1.372 billion yuan in chemical futures, - 227 million yuan in black - series futures, and 8.015 billion yuan in metal futures), 7.867 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 435 million yuan in Treasury bond futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Core Points - The U.S. Senate, led by the Republican Party, passed a temporary funding bill with a vote of 60 in favor and 40 against, effectively ending a record government shutdown [1] - The bill will be sent to the Republican-led House of Representatives for review, with a final vote expected as early as Wednesday [1] - The funding bill will maintain federal government funding until January 30 of the following year and provides full-year funding for the Department of Agriculture, military construction, and legislative bodies [1] - Democratic supporters ensured the reversal of federal layoff provisions implemented during the shutdown by the Trump administration [1] - Republican leaders committed to voting on the Affordable Care Act subsidy provisions by mid-December [1] - House Speaker Johnson informed Republican colleagues of plans to organize a full House vote as soon as Wednesday, marking the first session since the last vote on September 19 after a 50-day recess [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - The U.S. Senate passed a temporary funding bill with a vote of 60 to 40, which may end the 40-day government shutdown, pending House approval and Trump's signature [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggested a minimum interest rate cut of 25 basis points in December, with a 50 basis point cut being more appropriate to prevent further economic slowdown [1] - Gold prices rose significantly, surpassing the $4,100 mark, with potential upward movement towards $4,150 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The U.S. fleet has heavily gathered in the Caribbean, targeting Venezuela, which has the largest proven oil reserves globally at 303 billion barrels [3] - OPEC+ plans to maintain slight production increases in December but will pause increases starting in Q1 next year, signaling cautious production adjustments [3] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown negatively impacts oil demand, making it challenging for oil prices to rise [3] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices rebounded significantly, with a continuous upward trend since November 5, indicating a higher probability of stabilization [5] - Key resistance levels for copper are between $5.15 and $5.20, while support is noted around the $5.02 range [5] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index shows wide fluctuations with an upward trend, maintaining a trading range between 49,500 and 51,500 [5] - The focus is on the breakout direction from this range, with 50,700 serving as a critical line for bullish and bearish sentiment [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, closing at a significant high, driven by weak U.S. economic data and strong expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - Weak U.S. economic data: October saw a significant reduction in job openings, and early November consumer confidence index dropped sharply due to recession fears, reinforcing expectations for a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [2]. - Strong rate cut expectations: CME Group data indicates a 64% probability of a rate cut in December, rising to approximately 77% in January, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [2]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve: Some officials support rate cuts while others remain cautious, creating policy uncertainty that provides upward momentum for gold prices [2]. - Impact of government shutdown: Although the shutdown may soon end, the lingering economic damage continues to bolster expectations for rate cuts and does not diminish gold's safe-haven demand [2]. - Global trade uncertainties: Changes in U.S. tariff policies and a decline in U.S.-China import volumes amplify economic risks, increasing demand for gold as a safe haven [2]. Technical Analysis - Daily chart analysis: Gold exhibited a strong upward trend on Monday, closing with a significant bullish candlestick. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, indicating a potential continuation of the upward trend. Key support is at the 5-day moving average around 4035, with resistance levels at 4134 and 4192/4193, corresponding to key Fibonacci retracement levels [3]. - Four-hour chart analysis: After breaking through the critical level of 4046, gold continues its strong upward trajectory. The current structure is likely a "double three-wave" pattern. The upward movement from the low of 3886 to 4046 is identified as the X-A wave, while the subsequent drop to 3928 is the X-B wave. The current rise from 3928 is identified as the X-C wave, which is expected to unfold in five waves [5]. - Detailed wave structure: The rise from 3928 to 4019 is considered the first wave, followed by a drop to 3965 as the second wave. Gold is currently in the third wave of the X-C wave, with a focus on the continuation of this upward trend. Observations will be made for any signs of resistance to anticipate the fourth wave's adjustment [5].