美联储多位官员讲话为后续降息路径提供关键指引，政府停摆虽催生避险买盘，但强势美元仍对金价构成短线压制，而停摆与经济不确定性将形成下方核 心支撑。 综合研判，短线金价受美元走强及利率预期双重约束，叠加避险情绪托底，大概率维持区间震荡格局。 从日线结构观察，金价近期在4000美元整数关口遇阻后连续回调，目前下探至3950-3970美元区间支撑带。 K线持续运行于20日均线下方，MACD动能柱逐步减弱，短线趋势呈偏弱态势；RSI指标处于中性偏弱区间，尚未出现明确底背离信号。 若金价有效跌破3950美元支撑位，下方或进一步测试3920美元关键水平；反之，若重新站稳4000美元且突破近期下降趋势线，多头有望重掌主导权。 短期金价方向仍锚定美元走势与美联储政策沟通信号——就业数据走强虽不代表降息周期终结，但会推迟进一步宽松时点，美联储官员讲话前，金价大概 率延续震荡回调节奏。 需重点关注，政府停摆若持续，避险情绪将在3950-3970美元区域形成强支撑，后续需紧密跟踪美元动态及美联储官员关于通胀、就业的最新表述，以捕 捉政策预期边际变化。 当前黄金行情正处于三角形末端震荡整理，波幅持续收窄，4050美元仍是多空博弈的核心 ...

据新华网报道，美国联邦政府"停摆"进入第36天，打破2018年年底至2019年年初"停摆"35天的纪录，成 为美国历史上持续时间最长的联邦政府"停摆"。最新的关键进展是，11月5日，参议院民主党领袖已正 式致信特朗普总统，要求举行两党会议，这标志着在经历了长期僵持后，政治层面可能出现破冰迹象。 参议院少数党领袖查克·舒默（Chuck Schumer）与众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries）联名致信特朗普总统，信中明确表示："我们致信要求举行一次两党立法领袖会议，以结束共 和党造成的政府停摆，并果断解决共和党的医疗保健危机。民主党人随时准备与您面对面会谈。" 这封信函发出的时机值得关注，恰逢民主党在周二的选举中取得一系列胜利之后。这一主动姿态表明， 在新的政治环境下，民主党高层可能正在寻求策略调整，通过谈判来结束已对经济和民生造成严重影响 的停摆局面。 对投资者而言，这意味着打破僵局的可能性正在增加。其核心驱动力来自两个方面：第一，民主党内部 出现分化， 部分温和派参议员已准备打破党派立场，与共和党合作推动政府重新开门；第二，每周高 达150亿美元的经济损失正对两党构成巨大压力。虽然 ...

今日周二(11月4日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于11242一线下方，今日开盘于11455元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报11229元/千克，下跌1.40%，最高触及11504元/千克，最低下探11188元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 两党普通参议员团体一直在商讨如何将一项短期拨款方案打包通过，该方案将重启政府运作，同时推进 全年拨款法案的审议，并赋予民主党人对即将到期的《平价医疗法案》补贴进行投票表决的权利。 另外美国参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩表示，由于两党基层谈判取得进展，他对本周能达成协议结束政 府停摆"持乐观态度"。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银周一慢涨至11537附近，还是没有站稳11600压制点，现在还是震荡走势，等待多头趋势爆发出来。 沪银在上涨中低点越来越高，下方11000，11140都是阶段性低点，而高点一直维持在11600之下，所 以，现在是一个震荡三角上行的阶段，那么，本周也要在上涨趋势先的支撑点做多，再看11600破位后 的单边上涨。周内支撑在11200，可以在此点位做多看涨，上方先看11600，破位后再看120 ...

Group 1 - The total silver futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange is 656,170 kilograms, with a decrease of 9,440 kilograms compared to the previous day [1][2] - The main silver futures opened at 11,230 yuan per kilogram, reached a high of 11,320 yuan, a low of 11,103 yuan, and closed at 11,276 yuan, down 0.73% [1] - The total silver warehouse inventory in Shanghai is 548,391 kilograms, with a decrease of 10,994 kilograms from the previous day [2] Group 2 - The U.S. government is sending notifications to federal employees indicating that only those who worked during the government shutdown will receive back pay [3] - The White House is willing to discuss back pay for federal employees with Democrats, using it as leverage to push for government reopening [3] - The government is complying with court orders to pay benefits for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), despite previous threats to halt these benefits [3]

当地时间11月5日，美国国会参议院共和党人拒绝了美国总统特朗普提出的一项参议院终止"冗长辩 论"（filibuster）的相关要求。共和党资深参议员麦康奈尔当天表示，共和党人不会结束"冗长辩论"。 美国总统特朗普5日就政府"停摆"表示，呼吁共和党立即终结"冗长辩论"，并表示"今晚就该开始通过法 案"，以尽快推动政府重启。 （原标题：特朗普遭拒） 来源：央视新闻 特朗普提议美国会参议院结束"冗长辩论"遭共和党人拒绝 美国总统特朗普此前已经在10月30日呼吁共和党参议员动用所谓"核选项"，废除参议院长期实行的"冗 长辩论"议事规则（即通过法案需要至少60票的规则），以打破当前政府"停摆"僵局。然而，这一提议 遭到共和党高层的立即抵制。 根据现行规则，参议院绝大多数立法需获得100个席位中的至少60票支持方可推进。尽管共和党目前在 参议院以53席对47席占据多数，但未达到60票门槛，民主党因此可凭借"冗长辩论"有效阻挠法案表决。 截至5日，旨在结束政府"停摆"的临时拨款法案已经14次在参议院因未能达到60票支持而未获推进。 在此次特朗普再次表态要求终止"冗长辩论"之前，参议院共和党领袖约翰·图恩及多位共和党议员已经 ...

当地时间11月5日，美国国会参议院共和党人拒绝了美国总统特朗普提出的一项参议院终止"冗长辩 论"（filibuster）的相关要求。共和党资深参议员麦康奈尔当天表示，共和党人不会结束"冗长辩论"。 美国总统特朗普5日就政府"停摆"表示，呼吁共和党立即终结"冗长辩论"，并表示"今晚就该开始通 过法案"，以尽快推动政府重启。 美国总统特朗普此前已经在10月30日呼吁共和党参议员动用所谓"核选项"，废除参议院长期实行 的"冗长辩论"议事规则（即通过法案需要至少60票的规则），以打破当前政府"停摆"僵局。然而，这一 提议遭到共和党高层的立即抵制。 根据现行规则，参议院绝大多数立法需获得100个席位中的至少60票支持方可推进。尽管共和党目 前在参议院以53席对47席占据多数，但未达到60票门槛，民主党因此可凭借"冗长辩论"有效阻挠法案表 决。截至5日，旨在结束政府"停摆"的临时拨款法案已经14次在参议院因未能达到60票支持而未获推 进。 在此次特朗普再次表态要求终止"冗长辩论"之前，参议院共和党领袖约翰·图恩及多位共和党议员 已经明确表示反对。图恩认为"冗长辩论""长期以来保护了国家免受极端立法的伤害"。多名共和党参议 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price in a callback trend [16] - US Dollar: Short - term oscillation [20] - Chinese Stock Index Futures: Long - position balanced allocation for each index [23] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term high - level shock adjustment, with a bullish view considering profit support [27] - Treasury Bond Futures: Recently, the bond market is slightly bullish with limited upside, and long - positions should consider rhythm and odds [29] - Sugar: Chinese sugar market to oscillate, strict control on syrup and powder imports and reduced Q4 imports [34] - Steel: Adopt an oscillating approach to steel prices [41] - Live Pigs: Short - sell 03 contract after a sharp rebound, and keep an eye on long - positions in far - month contracts [44] - Red Dates: Wait and see, focus on price negotiation and acquisition progress in production areas [47] - Oils: If no major negative news, consider long - positions; wait for market sentiment to stabilize if negative [48] - Corn Starch: Band - trading [51] - Corn: 01 contract to oscillate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the long - term; be cautious about far - month contracts [53] - Thermal Coal: Price to remain strong in the short - term, watch policy changes after breaking through $800 [55] - Iron Ore: Downside space limited, consider negotiation and coking coal valuation [56] - Coking Coal/Coke: Short - term oscillation, watch for risks from declining hot metal production [57] - Copper: Oscillation, consider buying on dips [60] - Polysilicon: If the contract price corrects to par or discount to spot, consider long - positions; beware of options risks this weekend [63] - Industrial Silicon: Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [65] - Lead: Short - term strength, be cautious about chasing long; positive spread arbitrage available; be cautious in external trading [69] - Zinc: Speculative long - positions take profit on rallies; observe positive spread arbitrage opportunities; wait and see for external trading [74] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term wide - range oscillation; consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [79] - Nickel: Wait and see for speculative single - side trading; bet on valuation recovery after risk release [81] - Crude Oil: Price to oscillate [85] - Asphalt: Short - term weak oscillation [87] - Methanol: Holders of short - positions add short after the rebound ends; conservative investors take profit [89] - Pulp: Limited upside space [90] - Urea: Oscillation due to sentiment support [92] - Caustic Soda: Short - term weak oscillation [94] - Soda Ash: Downside space depends on coal price and new capacity; bearish in the medium - term [95] - Float Glass: Wait and see due to intense market game [97] - Container Freight Rates: Short - sell after the rally [99] 2. Core Views of the Report - The US ADP employment data in October exceeded expectations, indicating a short - term recovery in the labor market, but the economic downward pressure persists, and the US dollar maintains an oscillating trend [2][19] - In the context of a global stock market correction, the A - share market showed unexpected resilience, and the stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level [3][22] - The prices of steel, copper, and other commodities are affected by factors such as macro - expectations, fundamentals, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends [5][6] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, both better than expected [14][15] - Gold prices rebounded slightly, and the market is waiting for the end of the US government shutdown. Gold is expected to consolidate and approach the 60 - day moving average [15] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump blamed the government shutdown for the Democratic victory in local elections [17] - The US Supreme Court questioned the legality of Trump's tariff policy [18] - The ADP employment data exceeded expectations, but the economic downward pressure continues, and the US dollar maintains an oscillating trend [19] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China will firmly promote high - level opening - up [21] - The A - share market showed resilience, and the stock index is expected to oscillate at a high level [22] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, and the ISM services PMI reached a new high [25][26] - The US economic data remained resilient, and the stock market's risk appetite recovered [26] 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 65.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan [28] - The bond market's upward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate. Long - positions should consider rhythm and odds [29] 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's 2025/26 sugar production season has started, and Brazil's sugar production estimate has been raised [30][31] - The expected high - yield of the two major producers has increased concerns about global supply surplus, which is negative for the market [34] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The retail sales of passenger cars in October increased year - on - year and month - on - month [35] - Steel prices continued to be weak, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in November - December [40] 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The project of Wens Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary passed the environmental assessment, and Dabeinong signed a regulatory agreement [42][43] - The short - term spot market is bullish, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [43] 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The acquisition of red dates in Xinjiang is progressing, and the futures price declined [45][46] - The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [47] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production in October increased by 12.31% month - on - month [48] - The market expects inventory accumulation in October. Pay attention to actual data and November's high - frequency supply - demand data [48] 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The开机率 of corn starch enterprises increased, and the inventory slightly rose [49][51] - The inventory pressure is expected to be acceptable in January, and enterprises may maintain profitability [51] 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn is generally stable, with some regional differences [51] - Substitute supply is expected to increase, and the 01 contract may oscillate weakly in the short - term and rebound in the long - term [52][53] 3.2.8 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - The international thermal coal price was strong on November 5, and the domestic price has risen recently [54][55] - The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and watch policy changes after breaking through $800 [55] 3.2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The demand for concrete weakened slightly, and iron ore prices oscillated weakly [56] - The downside space is limited, considering negotiation and coking coal valuation [56] 3.2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in Linfen Anze was strong [57] - The short - term market is tight, but the hot metal production has peaked, and it may oscillate [57] 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's Codelco's copper production in the first nine months increased by 2.1% year - on - year [58] - The short - term macro - expectations are volatile, and copper prices are expected to oscillate [60] 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The number of photovoltaic component project bids decreased last week, and the price of polysilicon was under pressure [61][62] - November is a critical point of policy and fundamental game. Consider long - positions on dips if the contract price corrects [63] 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan decreased, and the inventory is expected to be difficult to reduce in November [64] - Buying on dips may be more cost - effective [65] 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory decreased, and the domestic lead price trended upward [69] - The short - term supply is slowly recovering, and pay attention to delivery risks; consider short - selling at high levels in the long - term [69] 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc showed a premium, and the domestic zinc production is expected to decline in November - December [73] - Zinc prices may oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and need demand improvement for further rise [73] 3.2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Hainan Mining's lithium concentrate has been shipped, and EVE Energy signed a cooperation agreement [75][76] - The short - term price may oscillate widely, and consider short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [79] 3.2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Minmetals' acquisition of a nickel business entered the second - stage review [80] - The short - term price may be under pressure, and bet on valuation recovery after risk release [81] 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Kazakhstan's oil field production decreased due to maintenance, and the EIA crude oil inventory increased [82][84] - Oil prices are expected to oscillate [85] 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt decreased [86] - The asphalt price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [87] 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The Chinese methanol port inventory increased slightly [88] - The rebound does not indicate a fundamental reversal. Holders of short - positions add short after the rebound ends [89] 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp price was stable, and the futures price rose [90] - The upward space of the pulp price is limited [90] 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory increased, and the price oscillated upward due to export quota rumors [91] - The urea price may oscillate due to sentiment support [92] 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price in Shandong decreased locally, and the inventory decreased [93][94] - The caustic soda price may oscillate weakly in the short - term [94] 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash price in Shahe oscillated, and the demand may be affected in the short - term [95] - The soda ash price may decline in the medium - term, and the short - term downside space depends on coal price and new capacity [95] 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price in Shahe increased slightly, and the market game is intense [96][97] - It is recommended to wait and see due to intense market game [97] 3.2.26 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Shipping companies adjusted European - route freight rates [98] - The container freight rate may rise in the short - term, and consider short - selling after the rally [99]

Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government has entered its longest shutdown in history, lasting 36 days, disrupting normal operations due to funding exhaustion [1] - The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) has run out of funds, affecting approximately 42 million people, or one-eighth of the U.S. population, most of whom are below the poverty line [1] - Food assistance sites are experiencing increased demand, with long lines forming as people either have not received benefits or are concerned about future payments [2] Group 2: Heating Assistance - A program designed to subsidize heating costs for low-income families, costing $4.1 billion, may face delays in fund distribution due to the shutdown, impacting around 5.9 million households [3] - Experts warn that if the shutdown continues, thousands may face life-threatening cold conditions as winter approaches [3] Group 3: Aviation Safety - The U.S. Transportation Secretary has warned that if the shutdown extends for another week, air traffic may face significant disruptions, including potential airspace closures due to staff shortages [4] - Since the shutdown began, thousands of air traffic controllers and security personnel have been working without pay, leading to widespread flight delays and cancellations, affecting over 3.2 million travelers [5] Group 4: Military Pay - The federal government has managed to secure funds for military pay for two pay periods since the shutdown began, totaling $5.3 billion from various sources [6] - The next military pay date is set for November 15, and if the shutdown persists, military personnel may not receive their salaries [8] Group 5: Federal Employees - Approximately 750,000 federal employees have been placed on temporary leave or are working without pay due to the shutdown [9] - If the situation continues until December 1, the federal government could accumulate unpaid wages totaling $21 billion [9]

美国联邦政府5日进入"停摆"第36天，打破先前35天的纪录，成为美国历史上持续时间最长的政府"停摆"。联邦政府机构因资金耗尽无法正常运 转，负面影响持续扩散。这次史上最长"停摆"，对美国民生、社会造成了哪些伤害？ 美国联邦食品救济项目"补充营养援助计划"10月31日耗尽资金。该项目覆盖约4200万人，约占全美总人口的八分之一，大多数人收入低于贫困 线。 在联邦法官介入后，美国农业部3日表示，将动用应急资金维持本月一半救济金的发放，但一些州或需要数周甚至数月才能恢复发放。 然而，美国总统特朗普4日在社交媒体上发文称，这些数千万低收入民众急需的救济金"只有在激进左翼民主党人给政府开门之后才能发放"。白宫 新闻秘书莱维特随后表示，联邦政府会依照法院裁决发放救济金。 近日，美国多地的食品救济站和免费食物发放处前排起长队，前来领取食物的人明显多于以往。他们要么没有收到食品救济金，要么担心这笔钱 未来会停发。还有一些人担心，救济金发放延迟会影响本月下旬的感恩节。 冬季采暖 随着气温持续下降，美国多个州发出警告，由于"停摆"，一项用于补贴低收入家庭取暖费用的福利项目资金恐将延迟发放。 美联社报道说，这个耗资41亿美元的"低 ...

新华社华盛顿11月5日电（记者杨伶 熊茂伶）美国政府"停摆"5日进入创纪录的第36天。交通部长达菲 表示，如果"停摆"持续，交通部将从7日开始削减全美40座繁忙机场10%的运输量，以降低国家空域风 险。 达菲当天在首都华盛顿一场新闻发布会上宣布这一举措。他说，这40座机场的压力正与日俱增，交通部 不能坐等安全问题出现。他将于当天晚些时候与一些航空运营商高层会面，商讨如何安全实施运力削减 举措。 据航班追踪网站数据，4日美国境内以及进出美国的航班延误近4300架次，其中151架次取消。达菲4日 表示，情况可能会恶化，因为政府"停摆"短期内没有结束迹象，空管员一直领不到工资。他警告说，随 着11月下旬感恩节假期临近，将出现航班大规模延误甚至取消，届时，出于安全考虑，美国交通部可能 不得不关闭部分空域，因为"根本无法控制局面"。 美国各大航空运营商、航空业界工会和旅游业界一直敦促国会两党就联邦政府临时拨款法案达成协议， 以结束政府"停摆"。本周早些时候，美国旅游协会致信国会领导人说，担心如果政府"停摆"持续到假日 旅游旺季，情况可能变得更糟。 责编：张荣耀、卢思宇 "在我从事航空交通工作的35年经历中，之前从未遇到 ...