证券研究报告 策略点评（R2） 短期保持谨慎，静待市场企稳 财信证券宏观策略周报（11.24-11.28） 2025 年 11 月 23 日 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 % 1M 3M 12M 上证指数 -0.75 1.82 13.86 沪深 300 -1.86 4.27 11.74 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 上证指数 沪深300 黄红卫 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530519010001 huanghongwei@hnchasing.com 相关报告 投资要点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明 大势研判。上周在海外市场调整影响下，万得全 A 指数阶段性向下调整，跌 破震荡调整区间，短期仍需合理控制仓位，静待指数企稳信号出现。一是从 资金面来看，11 月底之前机构倾向于守住全年收益，加仓意愿不强，但 12 月 中旬开始，机构资金将逐步开始布局 2026 年方向，存在"抢跑"的预期；二 是中央经济工作会议通常在 12 月中旬召开，将为明年经济工作指明方向，预 计在中央经济工作会议前后，政策预期利好将支撑市场；三是从技术形态来 看，201 ...

3 元 3 - 1 - 2025 年 11 月 23 日 本周重磅发布策略报告,挖掘新消费、看好全球制造 本期投资提示: -纺织服装行业周报 20251123 相关研究 《 澳毛价格企稳回升，全运会开幕提振户 外运动板块——纺织服装行业周报 20251116》 2025/11/16 《 10 月纺服出口承压,中美磋商利好有望 修复出口链一 -- 纺织服装行业周报 20251110》 2025/11/10 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanqlp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 朱本伦 A0230125090001 zhubl@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱本伦 (8621)23297818× zhubl@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 时代小 本周纺织服饰板块表现强于市场。11 月 17 日 ~ 11 月 21 日, SW 纺织服饰指数下 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in the textile and apparel sector, particularly focusing on new consumption trends and global manufacturing recovery [3][16][18]. Industry Performance - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the market during the week of November 17 to November 21, with the SW textile and apparel index declining by 4.8%, which was 0.3 percentage points better than the SW All A index [4][10]. - Recent industry data shows that from January to October, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles reached 1,205.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [3][34]. Textile Sector Insights - The Australian wool price index stabilized at 983 cents per kilogram as of November 20, 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 32.3% and a monthly increase of 5.4%, indicating a bullish trend in wool prices [10][50]. - The report suggests that the current price increase in Australian wool is in its early stages, driven by supply constraints and new demand from sports wool yarns, presenting investment opportunities [10][18]. Apparel Sector Insights - Amer Sports reported a 30% increase in revenue to $1.76 billion for Q3 2025, with a net profit increase of 161% to $190 million, exceeding previous guidance and indicating strong growth in the outdoor segment [13][15]. - The report recommends focusing on outdoor sports brands such as Bosideng, which is expected to benefit from seasonal sales and a favorable market environment [15][18]. Investment Strategy for 2026 - The investment strategy for the textile and apparel industry in 2026 focuses on consolidating positions and exploring new consumption trends, particularly targeting younger consumer demographics [16][17]. - The report highlights the importance of the global tariff landscape stabilizing, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of core manufacturing [18]. Key Recommendations - Recommended companies in the outdoor sports segment include Anta, Bosideng, and 361 Degrees, with a focus on brands that are well-positioned to capitalize on the upcoming winter season and the Milan Winter Olympics [17][18]. - The report also identifies potential in discount retail and personal care sectors, suggesting companies like Hailan Home and Nobon Co., which are expected to benefit from changing consumer behaviors [17][18].

以下文章来源于东四十条资本 ，作者鲁智高 东四十条资本 . 聚焦股权投资行业人物、事件、数据、研究、政策解读，提供专业视角和深度洞见 | 创投圈有趣的灵魂 从2012年推出"伯希和"品牌，到2015年正式成立公司，伯希和在多年的发展过程中，也获得了安徽文化产业投 资私募基金、建安集团等国资，以及启明创投、金沙江创投、同程资本、腾讯等投资者的认可，估值达到28亿 元。 如果看目前的回报，当地国资可谓是投资者中最大的赢家。短短两年左右，亳州国资除了有近三千万元的财务回 报，更是通过龙头企业伯希和等带动了当地轻纺服饰产业的快速发展。 夫妻创业，三年卖出超380万件冲锋衣 伯希和的故事，得从一对夫妇说起。 时间回到2006年，刘振和妻子花敬玲在北京做起了面向海外品牌的服装出口贸易。六年后，他们为把握内地户 外服装市场的增长机遇，顺势推出了"伯希和"品牌。 将投中网设为"星标⭐"，第一时间收获最新推送 一路走来，伯希和只完成了两轮融资。 作者丨鲁智高 来源丨 东四十条资本 一个位于安徽小城的知名品牌正冲向港股。 在三年卖出超380万件冲锋衣后，伯希和于近日再次申请在港上市。虽然主攻千元以下冲锋衣市场，但他们凭借 高性价 ...

Economic Outlook - Multiple domestic and foreign institutions predict that China's economy will maintain a steady growth trajectory in 2026, supported by policy measures, structural upgrades, and the release of potential [1][3] - Morgan Stanley anticipates moderate growth in 2026 due to appropriate easing policies and gradual rebalancing, while UBS expects more precise policy support to enhance economic resilience [3] Policy Support - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a confidence booster for foreign institutions, indicating China's commitment to enhancing advanced manufacturing competitiveness and boosting exports [7] - Targeted support measures, such as energy cost subsidies for businesses and consumer incentives, are expected to play a crucial role in sustaining economic activity [7] Export and Manufacturing - China's manufacturing and export sectors are showing strong resilience, with exports remaining a core support for economic growth [8] - Analysts note that improvements in economic structure and technological advancements are lowering trade costs, stabilizing profit margins for export enterprises [9] Domestic Demand - The potential of the domestic market is accelerating, with various consumer promotion and livelihood policies expected to be key drivers for expanding domestic demand in 2026 [11] - The government has prioritized expanding consumption, which is viewed as a direction for high-quality growth not only for 2026 but for the next decade [13] New Consumption Trends - The rise of new consumption sectors is injecting fresh momentum into economic growth, with expectations for brands to gain more market recognition and expand internationally [15][17]

Core Viewpoint - Multiple domestic and foreign institutions have released strategy reports for 2026, indicating that China's economy will continue to show steady growth next year [1][2]. Economic Growth Outlook - There is a positive consensus among various institutions regarding China's economic trajectory in 2026, driven by policy support, structural upgrades, and the release of potential [2]. - Morgan Stanley predicts moderate growth for China's economy in 2026 under a backdrop of appropriate easing policies and gradual rebalancing [2]. - UBS expects more precise policy support in 2026, contributing to resilient economic activity [2]. Export and Manufacturing Resilience - Exports remain a core support for economic growth, with strong resilience observed in manufacturing and exports [3]. - Analysts from various institutions believe that China's "going global" strategy will further enhance profit growth opportunities for enterprises [3]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - The potential of the domestic market is accelerating, with a series of consumption-boosting policies expected to play a key role in expanding domestic demand [4]. - The rise of new consumption sectors is injecting fresh momentum into economic growth, with a focus on brands gaining market recognition and expanding overseas [5]. Key Economic Themes - Resilience, innovation, stability, and openness are identified as key themes for the Chinese economy [6]. - The shift from traditional factor-driven growth to technology-driven growth is highlighted, with a focus on emerging technologies like AI and quantum technology [6][7]. - The stability of domestic policies is seen as a solid foundation for innovation and a crucial guarantee for steady economic progress [8]. Financial Sector Insights - Institutional openness and sustainable development concepts are viewed as vital for the continuous vitality of China's economy in the context of open cooperation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The apparent contradiction regarding the abundance and shortage of skilled talent in China can be reconciled by understanding that while there is a large pool of skilled workers, specific market demands create dynamic shortages in certain areas [1][2]. Group 1: Current Talent Landscape - China has over 72 million high-skilled workers, making it a leading country in terms of talent resources and R&D personnel [1]. - Despite the large number of skilled workers, there are significant gaps in specific skill sets due to rapid labor mobility, insufficient compensation, and limited growth opportunities in certain sectors [2]. Group 2: Market Demand Dynamics - The rapid development of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data has created a demand for roles like AI trainers and cloud network operators [3]. - Emerging industries, such as low-altitude economy and smart manufacturing, are generating new talent requirements, exemplified by the need for drone flight planners [4]. - The diversification of consumer needs has led to a demand for specialized skills, such as travel photography and home renovation management [5]. Group 3: Government Initiatives - The government is implementing various measures to enhance skill development, including the "Skill China Action" and high-skilled talent cultivation plans [6]. - Policies are being introduced to reform skill evaluation systems and promote lifelong vocational training, aiming to align talent supply with market needs [6]. Group 4: Industry Adaptation - Educational institutions are adjusting their curricula to better align with market demands, fostering closer ties between academia and industry [7]. - The integration of talent supply chains with industry and innovation chains is accelerating, enhancing the relevance of training programs [7]. Group 5: Market Response and Opportunities - The job market is responding to the demand for skilled talent with rising wages for in-demand positions, reflecting the dynamic nature of employment opportunities [8]. - The evolving job market is prompting individuals and families to reassess career paths, aligning personal development with market needs [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has entered a correction phase since October, primarily due to previous significant gains, tightening dollar liquidity, and a decline in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. However, the ongoing AI wave and the influx of incremental capital suggest that the bull market in Hong Kong stocks is likely to continue [1][2][13]. Market Adjustment - Since the beginning of the year, the Hong Kong stock market has performed well, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech reaching new highs in early October. However, by mid-October, the market began to adjust, with the Hang Seng Index experiencing a maximum decline of 5.1% and Hang Seng Tech a maximum decline of 8.1% [2]. - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech recorded maximum gains of 47% and 61% respectively this year before entering the current adjustment phase [2]. Factors Influencing the Market - The tightening of dollar liquidity and the decline in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have pressured the Hong Kong stock market. The U.S. government shutdown led to a temporary halt in government spending, causing dollar liquidity to tighten [3]. - Despite the end of the government shutdown, economic data remains unclear, leading to cautious Federal Reserve rate cut decisions. The market's expectation for a 25 basis point cut in December has dropped to 40% [3]. - The significant prior gains in the Hong Kong stock market, coupled with rising concerns over AI bubbles, have created selling pressure. The Hang Seng Tech Index has seen a maximum increase of 61% this year, while the Hang Seng Biotech Index has increased by 130% [3][8]. Historical Context of Market Corrections - In bull markets, adjustments are common, categorized into small corrections (average maximum decline of about 7%) and large corrections (average maximum decline of about 17%). Small corrections typically occur due to short-term market sentiment disturbances, while large corrections are often linked to liquidity tightening or external shocks [7][8]. - Historical data shows that small corrections in the Hang Seng Index average a maximum decline of 6.5% and last about 12 trading days, while large corrections average a maximum decline of 17% and last about 53 trading days [7][8]. Future Outlook - The tightening dollar liquidity is viewed as a short-term disturbance, and the AI wave is expected to continue. The release of previously accumulated liquidity following the end of the U.S. government shutdown may support the Hong Kong stock market [13]. - Incremental capital inflows and the gathering of quality assets suggest that the bull market in Hong Kong stocks may continue. The unique characteristics of Hong Kong assets, particularly in the context of the ongoing transformation in the domestic economy, enhance their attractiveness [13][14]. - Southbound capital is expected to continue flowing into the Hong Kong market, with over 1.3 trillion yuan already invested this year. This trend is likely to be supported by institutional investors, further propelling the market upward [14].

Core Viewpoint - The 30th China Tianjin Investment and Trade Fair has commenced, focusing on "New Consumption? New Scenarios? New Dynamics: Global Vision Gathering in Tianjin" and aims to integrate various sectors including the silver economy and welfare exhibition [1] Group 1: Exhibition Highlights - The fair features four major themed exhibition halls and multiple special exhibition areas, showcasing traditional brands and innovative products [4] - Notable brands such as Guifaxiang and Darentang are participating, highlighting intangible cultural heritage through interactive experiences [4] - The welfare life experience area displays advanced assistive technologies for the elderly and disabled, including smart care beds and AR hearing aids [4] Group 2: Event Framework and Activities - The event adopts an innovative "1+M+N" activity framework, including a cross-border e-commerce forum and enterprise promotion meetings [7] - Engaging activities for the public include live streaming tours and traditional cultural performances, along with a lottery event offering various consumer goods [7] Group 3: Transportation and Accessibility - A comprehensive transportation plan has been established for attendees, including direct subway access and multiple bus routes [11] - Free shuttle services are available to enhance accessibility for citizens, reflecting Tianjin's commitment to economic cooperation and cultural exchange [11]

Group 1 - The new consumption sector, represented by companies like Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Group, is currently facing challenges after a strong performance in the first half of the year [1][2] - Public funds have significantly reduced their holdings in leading new consumption stocks during the third quarter, indicating a shift in investment strategy [2][3] - The decline in stock prices for these companies has been notable, with Pop Mart dropping approximately 40% from a peak of 340 HKD to 201.4 HKD, and Lao Pu Gold falling from nearly 1100 HKD to 642 HKD [2][4] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that despite the current downturn, the new consumption sector still holds long-term investment value due to changing consumer preferences towards personalized and emotional consumption [1][5] - The market has shown concerns regarding the sustainability of the business models of new consumption giants, as initial explosive growth may lead to consumer fatigue and increased competition [4][5] - There is a belief that these companies may find new growth opportunities and platform value after the current adjustment phase, with potential for recovery in the market [5][6]