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中外资机构热议下半年投资机遇
中国基金报· 2025-07-06 13:12
【导读】中外资机构热议下半年投资机遇:继续看好中国股市,弱美元情景下全球资产须多元灵活配置 中国基金报记者 郭玟君 2025年上半年,全球金融市场在美国发动关税战、地缘政治冲突和AI技术革命等影响下剧烈震荡。进入下半年,机构对全球市场前景有何 展望、如何制定资产配置策略,备受关注。 中国基金报邀请 工银国际首席经济学家程实,汇丰私人银行及财富管理中国首席投资总监匡正,渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕 杰,安联投资亚太区高级经济师汤继成,博时基金(国际)有限公司固定收益部副主管卢里 等机构人士,共同探讨下半年的投资机遇。 工银国际首席经济学家 程实 汇丰私人银行及财富管理中国首席投资总监 匡正 渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师 王昕杰 中国基金报:下半年人民币会否继续走强? 程实: 下半年人民币汇率预计将呈现温和升值、双向波动走势。国内经济基本面趋稳向好,若美联储在下半年启动降息,中美利差有望收 窄,将进一步提升人民币资产的吸引力。 安联投资亚太区高级经济师 汤继成 博时基金(国际)有限公司固定收益部副主管 卢里 下半年继续看好中国股市 中国基金报:下半年如何调整A股及港股投资策略? 程实: 下半年A股和港 ...
外汇:美元难以转向
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 12:11
徐闻宇 从业资格号:F0299877 投资咨询号:Z0011454 期货研究报告 | FICC 组 外汇半年报 展望 2025 年下半年,预计美元兑人民币将在 6.8–7.3 区间内维持双向窄幅波动。市场普遍认为人民币不存在大幅单边贬值或升值的基 础:美元指数可能继续偏弱但其下行速度放缓,人民币汇率升破 6.8 的可能性较低,而即使遭遇外部冲击也有望守住 7.3 左右的政策底 线。整体趋势上,人民币对美元将保持温和偏升的态势:在弱势美元环境下延续小幅升值,但幅度有限,年底前汇率中枢或稳步略有下 移。 外汇:美元难以转向 FICC 组研究报告 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院宏观研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 z 蔡劭立 从业资格号:F3063489 投资咨询号:Z0014617 高聪 从业资格号:F3063338 投资咨询号:Z0016648 汪雅航 从业资格号:F03099648 投资咨询号:Z0019185 朱思谋 从业资格号:F03142856 FICC 组 | 外汇半年报 2025-07-06 美元难以转向 研究院 FICC 组 研究员 徐闻宇 邮箱: xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格 ...
上半年人民币汇率韧性强
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-07-06 01:52
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown resilience against the US dollar, with a stable exchange rate and a positive outlook for the second half of the year, supported by domestic economic recovery and effective macro policies [1][3]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Performance - As of July 4, the offshore yuan to US dollar exchange rate was 7.1643, up 58 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - In the first half of the year, the onshore yuan appreciated by 1.82% and the offshore yuan by 2.45% against the US dollar [1]. - The US dollar index fell by 10.79% during the same period, while the yuan's central parity rate increased by 298 basis points [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting Yuan Strength - The weakening US dollar index is a significant external factor contributing to the yuan's strength, alongside domestic economic recovery and proactive macro policies [1]. - Analysts believe that the market's lack of confidence in the US dollar and enhanced counter-cyclical adjustments in China provide strong support for the yuan [3]. - The narrowing gap between onshore, offshore spot rates, and the central parity rate suggests a potential convergence of these rates [1][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Market expectations indicate that the yuan may continue to appreciate moderately against the US dollar in the second half of the year [3]. - Continuous implementation of growth-stabilizing policies is seen as a key factor in maintaining exchange rate stability [3]. - The maturity of the foreign exchange market in China, along with improved risk management services for enterprises, enhances the ability to cope with exchange rate fluctuations [3].
墨西哥比索连涨创高位 市场预测中长期或将回调
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-05 08:59
近期,墨西哥比索延续上半年强劲表现,在本周创下逾十个月来的最高水平。然而,随着美国对多国加 征关税的暂缓措施即将于7月9日到期,市场对比索后续走势日益审慎。多家机构预测显示,当前高位运 行的比索未来一年或将温和回调。 连续升值动能减弱,回调预期升温 墨西哥比索自2024年底受贸易紧张局势影响大幅贬值后,进入持续回升通道。根据路透社发布的外汇市 场调查,2025年前半年比索已累计升值13.2%,成为拉美表现最强劲的货币之一。其兑美元汇率从去年 底的20以上水平升至目前的18.7左右。 路透调查对22位外汇专家的中值预测显示,比索未来12个月内或将温和贬值5.5%,汇率水平预计从7月 2日的18.72下行至19.80。 根据墨西哥央行发布的《2025年6月私人部门经济专家预期调查》,分析师中值预测比索将在年底贬至1 美元兑20.13比索,较当前水平贬值约7%,反映出市场对其中长期走势趋弱的普遍预期。 分析人士指出,比索回调预期的背后,反映出市场对全球贸易政策变化的担忧。美国对多国加征关税 的"冻结期"即将于7月9日到期,若重启关税,将可能引发新一轮贸易摩擦。 市场目前普遍聚焦7月9日这一关键节点。届时,美国政府是 ...
富士康:预计三季度将实现环比和同比双增长,但全球政治经济形势的变化以及汇率变动的影响仍需持续密切关注。
news flash· 2025-07-05 07:55
富士康:预计三季度将实现环比和同比双增长,但全球政治经济形势的变化以及汇率变动的影响仍需持 续密切关注。 ...
英镑兑日元本周跌超0.6%
news flash· 2025-07-04 21:59
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly focusing on the USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY pairs, highlighting significant movements influenced by economic reports and political situations [1]. Currency Exchange Rate Summary - The USD/JPY pair experienced a cumulative decline of 0.12%, closing at 144.47 JPY on July 4, with a notable drop to 142.68 JPY before rebounding to 145.23 JPY following the U.S. non-farm payroll report [1]. - The EUR/JPY pair saw an increase of 0.44%, reaching 170.22 JPY, indicating a strengthening of the Euro against the Yen [1]. - The GBP/JPY pair fell by 0.64%, closing at 197.194 JPY, with a significant drop on July 2 due to political tensions in the UK, followed by a recovery after the non-farm payroll report [1].
人民币汇率年中成绩单:韧性持续增强
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao· 2025-07-04 20:28
● 本报记者 连润 7月以来,人民币对美元汇率走势平稳。Wind数据显示,7月4日,截至16时30分,离岸人民币对美元汇 率报7.1643元,较前收盘价上涨58基点。回顾上半年人民币汇率走势,在外部环境复杂多变、全球市场 波动背景下,人民币对美元汇率彰显定力。上半年,在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率累计分别上涨 1.82%、2.45%。 专家表示,国内经济总体恢复向好、宏观政策持续发力等成为人民币汇率韧性增强的重要因素。展望下 半年,人民币对美元汇率有望继续保持韧性。 "伴随人民币外部被动贬值压力缓和,在岸人民币对美元即期汇率、离岸人民币对美元即期汇率、人民 币对美元中间价三者间的价差明显收敛,有望基本实现'三价合一'。"明明说。 有望温和升值 展望下半年,多位专家表示,在多重利好因素支撑下,人民币对美元汇率有望温和升值。 从外部环境看,王青表示,美元指数还会承受一定压力,这意味着因美元升值给人民币带来的被动贬值 压力可控。中金公司研究报告称,在美元偏弱的环境中,人民币汇率将保持温和的升值幅度。 从内部因素看,国内稳增长政策持续发力将是稳汇率的最大确定性因素。在王青看来,下半年财政和货 币政策有望加力,从而对冲外部 ...
在岸人民币兑美元(CNY)北京时间03:00收报7.1653元,较周四夜盘收盘涨64点。成交量211.63亿美元。
news flash· 2025-07-04 19:26
Core Viewpoint - The onshore Chinese yuan (CNY) appreciated against the US dollar, closing at 7.1653, reflecting a gain of 64 points compared to the previous night’s close [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - Currency Performance - The onshore CNY closed at 7.1653 against the USD, indicating a strengthening of the yuan [1] - The trading volume for the day was reported at 21.163 billion USD [1]
周五(7月4日)),韩元兑美元最终涨0.13%,报1362.72韩元。本周,该货币对累计下跌0.12%,6月30日涨至1347.23韩元之后,持续回落,7月3日发布美国非农就业报告后跌至1369.72韩元。
news flash· 2025-07-04 18:00
本周,该货币对累计下跌0.12%,6月30日涨至1347.23韩元之后,持续回落,7月3日发布美国非农就业 报告后跌至1369.72韩元。 周五(7月4日)),韩元兑美元最终涨0.13%,报1362.72韩元。 ...
警惕欧元走强!欧洲央行恐面临长期通胀失守2%风险
智通财经网· 2025-07-04 11:20
Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) faces challenges in achieving its inflation target due to a significant appreciation of the euro, which has risen approximately 14% since January [1][4] - ECB's Francois Villeroy de Galhau indicated that a sustained 10% rise in the euro could lower inflation by 0.2 percentage points annually over the next three years, increasing the risk of not meeting the inflation target [1] - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos noted that a rise in the euro to above 1.20 USD could complicate matters, highlighting concerns about the negative impact of currency appreciation on exporters [4] Group 2 - Villeroy emphasized that the ECB will not adjust its policies to target specific exchange rates, acknowledging the significant impact of euro appreciation on inflation [4] - The ECB is expected to maintain a flexible approach, with Villeroy suggesting that further easing of monetary policy may be necessary in the next six months [4][6] - Current inflation in France has been below 2% since August of the previous year, dropping to 0.7% in May, which is the lowest level in over four years [6]