Group 1 - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed hesitation regarding interest rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing uncertainty from tariffs, indicating a need for at least one more inflation report to assess persistent price pressures [1] - Goolsbee highlighted concerns over high service inflation from the recent CPI and PPI reports, suggesting that rising service prices are unlikely to be temporary, while cautioning against overreacting to single-month data [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates this year while monitoring the impact of tariffs and other policies on inflation and employment, with a weaker-than-expected jobs report increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September, as investors see over a 90% chance of a cut next month [1] Group 2 - Goolsbee emphasized the need to distinguish between temporary and persistent price increases, stating that clarity would come with similar inflation reports in the future [2] - Recent data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed a 0.5% increase in retail sales in July, with June's data revised to a 0.9% increase, while sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.3% [2] - The University of Michigan's consumer survey indicated a decline in consumer confidence by about 5% in August, primarily due to rising inflation concerns, with short-term inflation expectations unexpectedly rising from 4.5% to 4.9% [2][3] Group 3 - The consumer survey also reported a 14% drop in durable goods purchases, the lowest level in a year, reflecting increased concerns over purchasing power, while personal financial expectations showed slight improvement [3] - Despite a decrease in immediate concerns regarding tariffs, consumers still anticipate worsening inflation and unemployment rates in the future [3]

每经AI快讯，8月15日消息，美国8月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为58.6，预期为62，前值为61.7。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present daily data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, along with related indicators such as spreads, basis, and price ratios, to help investors understand market trends and price relationships. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Spreads**: Provides current values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year and all - time historical quantiles for various stock index futures spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, covering both spot - futures spreads and inter - delivery spreads [1]. - **Cross - Variety Ratios**: Presents ratios and their changes for different cross - variety combinations, such as CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc., along with their historical quantiles [1]. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis**: Shows the basis, its change, and the percentile since listing for different treasury bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL), as well as the internal rate of return (IRR) for TS [2]. - **Inter - Delivery Spreads**: Reports the inter - delivery spreads and their changes and historical percentiles for different treasury bond futures contracts [2]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: Provides cross - variety spreads and their changes for different combinations of treasury bond futures [2]. Precious Metal Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Prices**: Presents domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, and their changes and percentage changes for gold and silver [4]. - **Basis**: Reports the basis, its change, and historical 1 - year quantiles for different combinations of precious metal spot and futures [4]. - **Price Ratios**: Shows price ratios and their changes for different precious metal combinations [4]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: Provides data on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, 10 - year TIPS Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and the offshore RMB exchange rate, along with their changes [4]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: Reports inventory and holding data and their changes for precious metals in different markets [4]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot Quotes**: Presents spot quotes and their changes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Europe route [6]. - **Container Shipping Indexes**: Provides settlement price indexes and their changes for different container shipping routes, as well as Shanghai export container freight rates and their changes [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Reports futures prices, their changes, and basis data for container shipping futures contracts [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Includes data on global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators, along with their changes [6]. Overseas and Domestic Data/Information Report - **Overseas Data**: Lists economic indicators and financial events in the eurozone and the US, including economic sentiment indexes, inflation rates, and small - business confidence indexes [9]. - **Domestic Data**: Presents economic indicators and events in different domestic sectors, such as port inventories, to - port forecasts, and production - sales ratios [9].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，8月1日消息，美国7月密歇根大学消费者信心指数终值为61.7，预期62，前值61.8。 ...

Core Insights - The US consumer confidence index rose to a five-month high in July, driven by optimistic sentiment from the stock market rebound and easing inflation expectations [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence - The final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for July reached its highest level in five months [1] - Consumers expect an average inflation rate of 3.4% over the next five to ten years, the lowest level since January of this year [1] - Short-term inflation expectations for the next year decreased from 5% in June to 4.5% in July [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The survey period ended on July 28, coinciding with President Trump's tariff agreements with major trading partners like Japan and the EU [1] - Despite the positive sentiment among stockholders, the confidence of non-stockholders declined, partially offsetting the overall increase in consumer confidence [1] - On the last Thursday of July, the President announced a new round of large-scale tariffs, which further increased the average tariff level in the US [1]

Group 1 - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July is 61.7, which is below the expected value of 62 and slightly lower than the previous value of 61.8 [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Japan's unemployment rate for June will be released at 07:30 [1] - Key Point 2: China's July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be announced at 09:45 [1] - Key Point 3: The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference at 10:00 [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The UK Nationwide House Price Index for July will be published at 14:00 [1] - Key Point 2: France's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be available at 15:50 [1] - Key Point 3: Germany's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be released at 15:55 [1] - Key Point 4: Eurozone's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be announced at 16:00 [1] - Key Point 5: The UK's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be published at 16:30 [1] Group 3 - Key Point 1: Eurozone's July CPI year-on-year preliminary value will be released at 17:00 [1] - Key Point 2: Eurozone's July CPI month-on-month preliminary value will be available at 17:00 [1] Group 4 - Key Point 1: The US unemployment rate for July will be announced at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 2: The US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for July will be released at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 3: The US average hourly earnings year-on-year for July will be published at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 4: The US average hourly earnings month-on-month for July will be available at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 5: The US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value will be announced at 21:45 [1] - Key Point 6: The US July ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 7: The US July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value will be available at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 8: The US one-year inflation expectations final value for July will be published at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 9: The US June construction spending month-on-month will be released at 22:00 [1] Group 5 - Key Point 1: The total number of oil rigs in the US for the week ending August 1 will be announced at 01:00 the next day [1]

今晚20:30公布的美国第二季度GDP数据，或许会在账面上显示强劲反弹，但这份数据很可能具有相当大的误导性。 由贸易逆差收窄驱动的增长，掩盖了消费支出温和及商业投资停滞等核心领域的疲软迹象，这让一份看似强劲的报告，实则预示着美国 经济的潜在动能正在放缓。 媒体对经济学家的调查显示，市场普遍预期美国第二季度GDP将实现2.4%的年化增长，彻底扭转第一季度0.5%的萎缩局面。瑞银在最新 发布的财报中，将美国第二季度GDP增长预测大幅上调至2.6%， 尽管GDP读数或许乐观，经济学家们却普遍警告，应将焦点放在"对国内私人购买者的最终销售额"这一关键指标上。该指标被视为衡量 美国本土真实经济健康状况的"晴雨表"，而其增速预计将从第一季度1.9%的水平放缓。 他表示，特朗普政府不可预测的关税战略所产生的连锁反应已广泛波及经济，其"主要影响是在企业界制造了谨慎情绪"。 贸易数据扭曲，美国二季度GDP或现反弹 贸易和库存这两个最具波动性的GDP组成部分，正连续第二个季度主导着经济数据的走向。 瑞银现预测第二季度实际GDP年化增长率为2.6%，远高于第一季度-0.5%的萎缩。然而，这一增长几乎完全由净出口的巨大贡献所驱动， ...

欧元区7月消费者信心指数终值 -14.7，初值 -14.7。 ...

欧元区7月消费者信心指数终值 -14.7，预期-14.7，前值-14.7。 ...