Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is gaining attention as a significant investment opportunity alongside AI, chips, and new consumption sectors, particularly due to the increasing crowding in these other sectors since 2025 [1][21]. Group 1: Chemical Industry Cycle - The chemical industry typically follows a "5-year cycle," characterized by phases of profit growth, capacity expansion, profit bottoming, and capacity clearance or demand improvement [2][22]. - Current conditions indicate a "dawn" phase for the chemical industry, coinciding with a reduction in capital expenditure growth, anti-involution trends, overseas interest rate cuts, and domestic demand expansion [2][22]. - Key focus areas for 2026 include anti-involution, capacity reduction, and identifying demand certainty, with specific industries like PTA, polyester filament, organic silicon, and caprolactam leading the way [4][24]. Group 2: Growth Opportunities - Four growth areas within the chemical sector show clear potential: 1. Lubricant additives, benefiting from overseas client breakthroughs and global substitution trends [7][27]. 2. Biomanufacturing, driven by AI-enabled synthetic biology and promising new materials like PDO [7][27]. 3. Green fuels, spurred by urgent international emission reduction needs, creating markets for SAF and green alcohol [7][27]. 4. Solid-state batteries, nearing industrialization with advancements in sulfide and other battery materials [7][27]. Group 3: AI Materials - The explosive growth of the AI industry highlights four chemical material areas worth monitoring: 1. Chromium chemicals, with strong demand from two major sectors and ongoing supply constraints [10][30]. 2. Liquid cooling, driven by high computing density and the exit of 3M from the PFAS market, indicating a growing demand for cooling liquids [10][30]. 3. PCB materials, with a clear trend towards high-frequency and high-speed applications [10][30]. 4. Energy storage, with data center requirements boosting overseas storage demand and exceeding expectations for mobile storage, marking a turning point for the lithium battery supply chain [10][30]. Group 4: ETF Investment Opportunities - There are currently six ETFs tracking the chemical sector, reflecting the overall performance of major chemical companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [11][31]. - The Hua Bao Fund's chemical ETF (516020) has seen a remarkable growth rate of 832.84% in the past year [13][33]. - Analyst forecasts for 2025E and 2026E indicate a significant improvement in net profits for the ETF's weighted stocks compared to 2024, confirming a turning point in industry prosperity [18][38].

中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620083 晨会纪要 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/1/26 | 2026/1/25 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,143.00 | 1,157.00 | -14.0 | -1.210 | | | 焦炭 | 1,709.50 | 1,722.00 | -12.50 | -0.726 | | | 天然橡胶 | 16,255.00 | 16,315.00 | -60.0 | -0.368 | | | 20号胶 | 13,070.00 | 13,095.00 | -25.0 | -0.191 | | | 塑料 | 6,930.00 | 6,865.00 | 65.0 | 0.947 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,718.00 | 6,656.00 | 62.0 | 0.931 | | | (PTA) | 5,410.00 | 5,448.00 | -38.0 | -0.698 | | | ...

国家知识产权局近日发布中国2025年知识产权情况，截至2025年底，中国国内发明专利有效量达到532 万件，每万人口高价值发明专利拥有量达到16件。专利密集型产业增加值占GDP比重升至2024年的 13.38%，超额完成知识产权"十四五"规划预期目标。2025年，全国共授权发明专利97.2万件，实用新型 专利146.1万件，专利复审和无效结案9.6万件。截至2025年底，全球前5000个品牌中，中国品牌价值达 1.81万亿美元，位居全球第二。 知识产权，是"基于创造成果和工商标记依法产生的权利的统称"，最主要的三种知识产权是著作权、专 利权和商标权，其中专利权与商标权也被统称为工业产权。"每万人口高价值发明专利拥有量"是国 家"十四五"规划中衡量创新产出的一个重要指标。设置这个指标主要是强化专利的质量导向，引导发明 专利从追求数量向提高质量转变。 截至2025年底，中国国内高价值发明专利拥有量达到229.2万件，占国内有效发明专利总量的比重达到 43.1%，较"十三五"末提高2.9个百分点。这表明中国专利结构正在向优转变，技术含量更高、市场价值 更高、权利状态更加稳定的发明专利占比不断提升。同时，高价值发明专 ...

本报讯 （记者时斓娜） 近日，国新办举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年知识产权工作进展情况。记者从会 上获悉，截至2025年底，我国国内（不含港澳台）发明专利有效量达到532万件，每万人口高价值发明 专利拥有量达到16件，我国专利密集型产业的增加值突破18万亿元。 （来源：工人日报） 国家知识产权局副局长芮文彪在会上介绍，数据反映出2025年我国创新质量持续提升。我国国内（不含 港澳台）有效发明专利中，高价值发明专利同比增速比总体水平高2.2个百分点，数量达到229.2万件。 信息技术管理方法、计算机技术、医学技术等领域的有效发明专利增速最快，人工智能专利有效量居全 球前列，在量子科技、生物制造、脑机接口、第六代通信等未来产业布局了一批关键核心技术专利，有 力促进了高水平科技自立自强。 同时，知识产权效益加速显现。最新数据显示，我国专利密集型产业增加值占GDP的比重从2020年的 11.97%提升到2024年的13.38%，对经济增长的贡献度稳步提高。全球前5000个品牌中，我国品牌价值 达1.81万亿美元，位居全球第二。地理标志产品直接年产值接近1万亿元，实现五连增，成为特色产业 增收致富的"金名片"，有效助力 ...

Group 1: Quantum Technology - The report highlights significant advancements in quantum error correction technology, with Zhejiang University and Tsinghua University demonstrating low-overhead quantum error correction codes, effectively reducing logical error rates below physical error rates [4][5] - Horizon Quantum Computing has formed a strategic partnership with Alice&Bob to accelerate the development of fault-tolerant quantum computing, integrating their software and hardware capabilities [5] - GuoDun Quantum plans to sign a technology licensing contract with the University of Science and Technology of China, involving quantum random number generators and superconducting quantum computing control systems [6][7] Group 2: Biomanufacturing - The Chinese Academy of Sciences has achieved a breakthrough in synthesizing L-arginine using methanol as the sole carbon source, marking a shift towards non-grain-based production methods [8][9] - The Shenzhen Advanced Institute has developed the MARS intelligent system, which integrates multiple AI agents and robots to significantly shorten the new material development cycle from four months to four hours [9][10] - Jinbo Biological has registered a 2 billion yuan private placement to enhance its humanized collagen protein FAST database project, aiming to improve research and development efficiency [11] Group 3: Hydrogen Energy and Nuclear Fusion - The Baowu Clean Energy green hydrogen industrial park project, with a total investment of 11.09 billion yuan, has been launched in Guangdong, establishing a new model for offshore wind power direct hydrogen production [12][13] - A Chinese consortium has signed a significant contract for the ITER edge local model power supply system, marking a major step in China's contribution to global fusion energy projects [15] - Zhejiang Fu Nuclear Power will participate in the development of core components for the China Fusion Engineering Demonstration Reactor (CFEDR), focusing on ultra-high heat load components [16][17] Group 4: Brain-Computer Interfaces - Neuralink has successfully implemented OTA wireless upgrades for its invasive brain-computer interface, allowing for performance optimization without the need for additional surgeries [18][19] - This advancement addresses the traditional limitations of invasive devices, reducing clinical maintenance risks and costs while enhancing the adaptability of the technology [20] Group 5: Embodied Intelligence - World Labs, founded by Fei-Fei Li, has partnered with Guanglun Intelligent to create an evaluation system for embodied intelligence, addressing high verification costs and discrepancies between simulation and reality [21][22] - The Marble model developed by World Labs generates high-fidelity 3D environments from various inputs, solving traditional model issues but lacking physical interaction capabilities [22][23] Group 6: Future Industry Catalysts - The report outlines key catalytic events for 2026 across six future industries, including significant conferences and technological milestones that investors should monitor [28][29]

Core Insights - The industrial value added by the top ten provinces, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang, accounts for over 60% of the national total, positioning them as the economic "ballast" of China [1] - The future development paths of these provinces will define the new battlefield for Chinese manufacturing and provide key directions for industrial product marketing [1] Group 1: Transition from Scale to Quality - The core planning of each province is shifting from scale expansion to quality enhancement, with Guangdong focusing on empowering pillar industries through technologies like "AI + robotics" and planning for future industries such as quantum technology and biomanufacturing [3] - Jiangsu aims to advance its "Digital Jiangsu" initiative, having ranked first in the national integration development index for ten consecutive years, with a focus on integrating research and product development through "AI+" actions [3] - Shandong has set specific goals for coastal steel production capacity, aiming to transform its "volume advantage" into "quality superiority," indicating that industrial product marketing must align with the real demands of industrial chain upgrades and technological transformations [3] Group 2: Regional Collaborative Development - Regional collaboration is highlighted, with Anhui viewing the 14th Five-Year Plan as a critical period for catching up, leveraging shared technological innovation resources and industrial chain division within the Yangtze River Delta [3] - Hubei aims to accelerate its development as a strategic support point for the rise of the central region, while Guangdong is committed to collaborating with Hong Kong and Macau to make the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area a powerful engine for broader regional influence [3] - This collaboration breaks regional boundaries, requiring industrial product marketing to have a broader vision and find positioning within cross-regional industrial ecosystems [3] Group 3: Global Competitive Landscape - Top industrial clusters are targeting the global stage, with Hunan's engineering machinery cluster being cultivated as a world-class example, transitioning from "national" to "world-class" through collaboration among Changsha, Zhuzhou, and Xiangtan [4] - Jiangsu has established a strategic framework of "one center, one base, one hub" (industrial technology innovation center, advanced manufacturing base, and bidirectional open hub) to become a crucial site for new productive forces and global resource allocation [4] - This indicates that the competitive coordinates for industrial product marketing are now global, necessitating companies to consider how their products and technologies can integrate into and even lead the global industrial chain's value creation [4] Group 4: Platforms for Industrial Product Innovation - In this context, platforms aimed at promoting efficient connections for industrial products and showcasing innovative value are becoming increasingly important, such as the "Vision Factory - National Industrial Product Live Streaming Base," which aims to create a centralized selection space for global industrial products [5] - This platform provides a year-round display space for innovative products, with policies supporting innovation by allowing companies to apply for free entry into the offline exhibition area if their products possess core creativity and competitiveness [5] - The base is equipped with over a hundred professional hosts familiar with the industrial field, offering free live explanations, short video production, and multi-channel content promotion, with costs incurred only upon actual sales through the platform [5]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing aims to significantly develop high-tech industries in 2023, focusing on key projects such as robotics, commercial aerospace, and green advanced energy, while fostering new growth points in 6G, quantum technology, and biomanufacturing [1][2] Group 1: Key Projects and Initiatives - Beijing will promote the integrated circuit industry by expanding production capacity and constructing an international pharmaceutical innovation park [1] - The city plans to implement a humanoid robot acceleration development project and establish a national humanoid robot training base [2] - There will be a focus on building a high-performance quantum computing cloud platform and a quantum computing industry innovation center [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The government will enhance basic research and tackle key core technology challenges, establishing new research innovation platforms in areas like brain-machine interfaces and high-temperature superconductors [1] - Support will be provided for enterprises to undertake more technological research and development tasks [1] Group 3: Economic and Industrial Growth - Beijing aims to stimulate the vitality of various business entities, particularly supporting private enterprises in participating in major project construction [1] - The city will promote the digital transformation of traditional industries and enhance the quality of manufacturing [1]

1月25日，北京市第十六届人民代表大会第四次会议开幕，北京市市长殷勇作政府工作报告。 报告提出，2026年经济社会发展主要预期目标包括地区生产总值增长5%左右。2025年北京市地区生产 总值5.2万亿元，同比增长5.4%，高于全国0.4个百分点。 要点速览 2026年预期目标包括地区生产总值增长5%左右 全面实施"人工智能+"行动 培育6G、量子科技、生物制造等新增长点 加大对教育、健康、养老、托育等服务消费政策支持，鼓励平台创新发展家政等服务业务 今年地区生产总值增长5%左右 报告表示，2025年全市地区生产总值5.2万亿元，同比增长5.4%，高于全国0.4个百分点。一般公共预算 收入增长4.8%，城镇调查失业率4.1%，居民人均可支配收入实际增长4.4%。居民消费价格总体平稳， 人均地区生产总值、全员劳动生产率和万元地区生产总值能耗、水耗、碳排放等多项指标，保持全国省 级地区最优水平。 报告提出，2026年经济社会发展主要预期目标是：地区生产总值增长5%左右，一般公共预算收入增长 4%左右，城镇调查失业率控制在5%以内，居民消费价格涨幅2%左右，居民收入增长和经济增长同步， 细颗粒物年均浓度控制在29微克 ...

1月25日上午，北京市第十六届人民代表大会第四次会议在北京会议中心开幕。市长殷勇作政府工作报 告。报告提出，大力发展高精尖产业。巩固壮大实体经济根基，推动集成电路重点项目扩产量产，高水 平建设国际医药创新公园，全生态链推进绿色先进能源、新能源汽车、机器人、商业航天等重点项目； 加快建设全球数字经济标杆城市，全面实施"人工智能+"行动，建设国家人工智能应用中试基地；推进 未来产业先导区建设，培育6G、量子科技、生物制造等新增长点;推动传统产业提质升级，促进制造业 数智化转型。（北京日报） ...

中国经济 新亮点。 国内发明专利有效量达532万件、专利密集型产业增 加值突破18万亿元 …… 在国务院新闻办公室1月23日 举行的发布会上,国家知识产权局介绍2025年知识 产权工作进展情况,分析数据反映出的主要特点 在2025年底 国内(不含港澳台) 400±11 次明专利有'划重ጋጋ么门什 有效注册商标量4987.7万件 累计认定 地理标志产品5066个 集成电路布图设计 累计登记发证9.3万件 国家级知识产权 保护中心、快速维权中心129家 公共服务机构519家 ♀ 长三角地区、京津冀地区、广东省 发明专利有效量合计354.9万件 约占国内总量的2/3 有效注册商标量合计2805.8万件 占国内总量的1/2以上 在世界知识产权组织发布的 2025年全球百强创新集群排名中 特占1 创新质量持续提升 国内(不含港澳台)有效发明专利中 高价值发明专利数量229.2万件 同比增速比总体水平高2.2个百分点 信息技术管理方法 计算机技术 医学技术等领域 有效发明专利增速最快 人工智能专利有效量居全球前列 在量子科技、生物制造、 脑机接口、第六代通讯等 未来产业布局一批关键核心技术专利 特点7 重点区域创新活跃 ...