南华期货丙烯产业周报 ——关注"反内卷"进展 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月14日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响丙烯走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）本周整体化工情绪偏弱，不少品种创下新低。但周五夜盘国资委重提"反内卷"，周末发改委管控高能耗项 目，化工品受到影响低位反弹，短期依然情绪影响为主。 2）现货价格易受到个别装置波动影响，整体近期相对价格持稳，基差大幅走强。本周供需差整体变动不大， 供应端开停工并行，宁波富德MTO及汇丰石化FCC进入检修，广州石化蒸汽裂解、巨正源及滨华PDH重启， 需求端PP依然维持供应，丙烯酸利润影响检修增加；山东区域，本周供增需减，整体变动不大。 3）主要下游PP，供应充足，近期与丙烯的价差大幅收缩，现货端PP跟丙烯价差已经压缩到0附近，盘面主力 价差也最低压缩到400附近，但短期依然没有太多的检修出来，持续偏弱的PP价格压制PL走弱，短期"反内 卷"、高能耗管控可能 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the importance of ethnic unity in driving the high-quality development of Ningxia Ruiyuan Fine Chemical Co., Ltd, emphasizing the company's efforts in fostering a cohesive work environment among its diverse workforce [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Overview - Ningxia Ruiyuan, established in 2015, is a comprehensive circular economy enterprise involved in production, research and development, warehousing, trade, and logistics [2] - The company operates three main entities and has a diverse product matrix, including alcohols (methanol, ethanol, propanol, butanol) and esters (ethyl acetate, propyl acetate, butyl acetate), serving key industries such as energy, chemicals, environmental protection, and new materials [2] - It has become a significant supplier of fine chemical raw materials in Northwest China, with the largest single set of acetic acid ester processing facilities in the region [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company places a strong emphasis on technological research and development, having established a research center and obtained 36 utility model patents [2] - Core technologies such as aromatic separation extraction distillation and resource utilization of Fischer-Tropsch synthesis by-products give the company a competitive edge in the industry [2] - The integration of IoT and cloud computing technologies has led to the establishment of a dual prevention system, promoting intelligent and green production, achieving both economic and ecological benefits [2] Group 3: Future Development Strategy - The company aims to enhance its "alcohol, benzene, ester" circular industrial chain through strategies focused on "extending, supplementing, and strengthening" the chain [2] - Plans include the comprehensive utilization of hazardous waste and deep processing of derivatives, targeting an annual processing capacity of 300,000 tons of ester products [2] - The chairman expresses confidence in continuing to deepen the "Party building + creation" model to further enrich the carriers of ethnic unity and strengthen the bonds among employees [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with a slight narrowing of price differentials during the traditional off-season, and asset impairment is expected to ease in the future [6] - The company reported a total revenue of 21.918 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.023 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year [6] - The company is progressing well with its ongoing projects, which supports significant long-term development potential [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 30.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.4% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 1.499 billion yuan, a decrease of 26.1% year-on-year [5] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 13.8% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.5% [5] - The company has adjusted its 2025 profit forecast downwards due to asset impairment, now expecting a net profit of 1.499 billion yuan compared to the previous estimate of 1.914 billion yuan [6]

三、主要原材料的价格变动情况 证券代码：600623 900909 股票简称：华谊集团 华谊 B 股 编号：2025-054 上海华谊集团股份有限公司 2025 年三季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 上海华谊集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交易所上市 公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露》及其《上市公司行业信息披露第十 三号——化工》要求，现将 2025 年三季度主要经营数据（未经审计）披露如下： 二、主要产品的价格情况 | 主要产品 | 单位 | 2025 年 1-9 月 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 平均售价 | | 甲醇、醋酸及酯 | 元/吨 | 2,357.99 | | 工业气体 | 元/千立方米 | 1,032.37 | | 丙烯及下游产品 | 元/吨 | 6,707.40 | | 涂料及树脂 | 元/吨 | 25,142.97 | | 轮胎 | 元/条 | 644.58 | | 含氟材料 | 元/吨 | 36,101.36 | 特此 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is generally in line with expectations, with a slight decline in net profit due to market pressures and inventory impairment [6] - The company is experiencing a gradual bottoming out of product demand, with some product prices improving while others remain under pressure [6] - Cost relief from raw materials has somewhat mitigated the impact of declining product prices, although gross margins have still decreased [6] - Ongoing project developments are expected to support long-term growth, with several new projects scheduled for completion in the coming years [6] - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to supply chain pressures and trade disruptions, with expected net profit of 1.914 billion [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 30.78 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.4% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.914 billion, reflecting a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year [5] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 1.00 yuan for 2025, with a projected PE ratio of 14 [5] - The gross margin is expected to be 13.8% in 2025, showing a slight recovery from previous periods [5] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 9.3% for 2025 [5]

上海华谊集团股份有限公司 2025 年半年度主要经营数据公告 证券代码：600623 900909 股票简称：华谊集团 华谊 B 股 编号：2025-049 | 主要原料 | 单位 | 2025 年 1-6 月 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 价格变动情况 | | 化工煤 | 元/吨 | 739-969 | | 动力煤 | 元/吨 | 578-745 | | 乙醇 | 元/吨 | 4630-4982 | | 丙烷 | 元/吨 | 3903-4944 | | 天然胶 | 元/吨 | 12451-17970 | | 合成胶 | 元/吨 | 8616-13805 | | 丙烯 | 元/吨 | 5631-6699 | | 丁醇 | 元/吨 | 5065-6752 | | 萤石 | 元/吨 | 2955-3629 | 三、主要原材料的价格变动情况 四、报告期内无其他对公司生产经营具有重大影响的事项。 特此公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 上海华谊集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The national propylene market price fluctuated slightly this period, with the Shandong market price at 6,205 yuan/ton as of Friday, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous Friday, and further dropping over the weekend [1][5]. - The cost side was volatile this period. Crude oil had significant fluctuations with mixed factors; propane FEI rose slightly during the week but overall showed a weak oscillation, and the far - month 0102 is a relatively peak season for propane; methanol and coal prices declined after the policy sentiment faded. Overall, cost disturbances increased [5]. - The supply side remained relatively loose this week. The operation rate of major refineries was at a high level, the load of local refineries increased, the operation rate of MTO units remained stable, and the operation rate of PDH decreased slightly due to the maintenance of some units [5]. - On the demand side, there were not many changes overall. The production of PP pellets remained at a high level, the operation rate of PP powder increased compared to before, the operation rate of propylene oxide increased due to improved profits, the operation rate of butanol increased due to the resumption of production at CNOOC Shell, and other downstream sectors had little change. In addition, in the Shandong region, due to the maintenance of some units, the supply decreased this period, while the demand increased slightly due to the resumption or increased load of some units, and the supply - demand gap decreased [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Profit Data - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude oil closed at $69.52, down $2.26 from the previous day and up $1.13 from the previous week; WTI crude oil closed at $67.26, down $2.1 from the previous day and up $2.19 from the previous week. Other upstream prices such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also had corresponding changes [8]. - **Mid - stream Prices**: FOB Korea was at $730, CFR China was at $765, etc. The prices in different regions in China, such as East China, Shandong, etc., also showed certain fluctuations [8]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of propylene oxide increased by 550 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, and the prices of other downstream products such as PP pellets, PP powder, etc., also had corresponding changes [1][3]. - **Profits**: The profit of major refineries was 976.96 yuan/ton, and the profit of local refineries was 225.17 yuan/ton. The profits of different production processes such as MTO, PDH, etc., also had different degrees of change [8][10]. 3.2 Domestic Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: The overall operation rate of propylene was 72.97% (- 0.86%), and the production was 1.1636 million tons (- 7,700 tons). The operation rate of major refineries was 81.55% (0.34%), the operation rate of independent refineries was 48.20% (+ 0.04%), the operation rate of steam cracking was 83.08% (+ 2.9%), the operation rate of PDH was 73.58% (- 1.72%), and the operation rate of MTO was 85.27% (+ 0.32%) [2]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of PP pellets was 76.94% (- 0.03%), and the production was 773,300 tons (- 300 tons); the operation rate of PP powder was 36.04% (- 2.95%), and the production was 65,000 tons (- 5,300 tons); the operation rate of propylene oxide was 72.87% (- 0.44%), and the production was 118,800 tons (- 700 tons). The operation rate of butanol increased to 96.29% (+ 8.63%) [3]. - **Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of propylene was 33,600 tons (+ 1,800 tons), and the inventory was generally moderately high [3]. - **Import and Export**: The price difference between China and South Korea has slightly narrowed recently but still remains open. South Korea had relatively more maintenance in July, and it is expected that the domestic imports will decrease slightly in July [4]. 3.3 Shandong Balance Sheet - The supply in the Shandong region decreased this week, and the demand increased. Dongming Petrochemical carried out maintenance on July 29, including 96,000 tons of MDH and 100,000 tons of catalytic cracking units; Jinhai's 210,000 - ton light hydrocarbon cracking unit was under maintenance on July 29, reducing the external supply. On the demand side, Dongming's 200,000 - ton PP unit was under maintenance, Jinneng's 450,000 - ton 3PP unit resumed production, and some units such as CNOOC Fine Chemical and Jinling Chemical increased their propylene oxide load slightly [6][8]. 3.4 Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions - **Upstream Operation**: The operation rate of major refineries was 81.55%, up 0.34% from the previous week; the operation rate of local refineries was 48.2%, up 0.04% from the previous week. The operation rates of different production processes such as naphtha cracking, MTO, etc., also had corresponding changes [38]. - **Mid - stream Propylene**: Propylene production was 1.1636 million tons, down 13,800 tons from the previous week; the operation rate was 72.97%, down 0.86% from the previous week; the in - plant inventory was 33,600 tons, up 1,800 tons from the previous week [38]. - **Downstream Products**: The production and operation rates of downstream products such as PP pellets, PP powder, propylene oxide, etc., also had corresponding changes. For example, the production of PP pellets was 773,300 tons, down 300 tons from the previous week; the operation rate was 76.94%, down 0.03% from the previous week [38]. 3.5 Device Maintenance Situation - **MTO**: Many MTO units such as Cornell Chemical, Changzhou Changde, etc., are in a long - term shutdown or maintenance state [40]. - **PDH**: Many PDH units such as Hebei Haiwei, Jiangsu Sierbang 2, etc., are in a shutdown, maintenance, or planned maintenance state [41]. 3.6 Supply and Demand in South Korea and Japan - **South Korea**: South Korea's propylene production, domestic trade, and inventory all showed certain seasonal characteristics. It is expected that the production will decrease slightly in July and increase after the resumption of production in August [4][165][166]. - **Japan**: Japan's propylene production, sales, and inventory also showed certain seasonal characteristics [170].

Core Viewpoint - The SynBioCon 2025 conference will focus on the integration of AI with biomanufacturing, green chemicals and new materials, future food, and future agriculture, aiming to explore the development trends of the biomanufacturing industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference will be held from August 20-22, 2025, in Ningbo, Zhejiang [1]. - It aims to promote the transfer and transformation of scientific and technological achievements, product scaling, and talent acquisition in the biomanufacturing sector [1]. Group 2: Organizers and Support Units - Organized by Ningbo Detaizhongyan Information Technology Co., Ltd. (DT New Materials) and co-organized by several academic and research institutions [2]. - Supported by various associations and alliances, including the Chinese Society of Biotechnology and the Zhejiang Synthetic Biology Industry Technology Alliance [2]. Group 3: Expert Guests - Notable experts include Zhang Xian'en, Dean of the School of Synthetic Biology at Shenzhen University, and other prominent figures from various universities and research institutes [4][5][6][7][10][12][14][18][20][22][30][32]. - The conference will feature presentations on topics such as the construction of efficient cell factories for aromatic compounds and the biomanufacturing of polyamide materials [8][11][23][31]. Group 4: Conference Agenda - The agenda includes a series of forums and discussions on topics like green chemicals, AI in biomanufacturing, and future food and agriculture [36][37]. - Activities will include a high-level roundtable on biomanufacturing and a youth forum to showcase innovative achievements in the field [36].

Core Viewpoint - The SynBioCon 2025 conference will focus on the integration of AI with biomanufacturing, green chemicals and new materials, future food, and future agriculture, aiming to explore the development trends of the biomanufacturing industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]. Organizers and Support Units - The conference is organized by Ningbo Detaizhong Research Information Technology Co., Ltd. and supported by various institutions including Peking University Ningbo Institute of Ocean Medicine and the China Society of Biotechnology [2]. Expert Guests - Notable experts include Zhang Xian'en, Dean of the School of Synthetic Biology at Shenzhen University, and other prominent figures from various universities and research institutes who will share insights on biomanufacturing innovations [4][5][6][7]. Conference Agenda - The event will feature a series of forums and discussions, including a high-level roundtable on biomanufacturing, thematic forums on green chemicals and new materials, AI in biomanufacturing, and future food and agriculture [36][37]. Key Topics of Discussion - Topics will cover the construction of efficient cell factories for aromatic compounds, biomanufacturing of polyamide materials, and advancements in enzyme engineering for low-carbon biomanufacturing [8][11][27]. Networking and Collaboration - The conference aims to facilitate technology transfer, product scaling, and talent acquisition within the biomanufacturing sector, promoting collaboration among industry leaders, researchers, and government entities [1]. Event Details - The conference will take place from August 20 to 22, 2025, in Ningbo, Zhejiang, featuring registration, networking opportunities, and a showcase of technological achievements in biomanufacturing [1][36].

Core Viewpoint - The SynBioCon 2025 conference will focus on the integration of AI with biomanufacturing, green chemicals and new materials, future food, and future agriculture, aiming to explore the development trends of the biomanufacturing industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The conference will take place from August 20 to 22, 2025, in Ningbo, Zhejiang [1]. - It aims to promote the transfer and transformation of scientific and technological achievements, product scaling, and talent acquisition in the biomanufacturing sector [1]. Group 2: Organizers and Support Units - Organized by Ningbo Detaizhong Research Information Technology Co., Ltd. (DT New Materials) and co-organized by several academic and research institutions [2]. - Supported by various associations and alliances, including the Chinese Society of Biotechnology and the Zhejiang Synthetic Biology Industry Technology Alliance [2]. Group 3: Expert Guests - Notable experts include Zhang Xian'en, Dean of the School of Synthetic Biology at Shenzhen University of Technology, and other prominent figures in the field of biomanufacturing [4][5][6]. - The conference will feature presentations from experts on topics such as the construction of efficient cell factories and the biomanufacturing of key industrial monomers [8][11][30]. Group 4: Conference Agenda - The agenda includes a series of forums and discussions on topics like green chemicals, AI in biomanufacturing, and future food and agriculture [36][37]. - Activities will include a high-level roundtable on biomanufacturing and a youth forum to showcase innovative achievements in the industry [36].