Economic Indicators - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4.81 basis points to 3.885%[2] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 4.75 basis points to 3.989%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 2.40 basis points to 4.457%[4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 20,730.49, up 0.25%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 44,254.78, up 0.53%[5] - The S&P 500 index finished at 6,263.70, up 0.32%[5] Commodity and Currency Data - The Baltic Dry Index rose to 1,866.00, an increase of 4.66%[5] - Brent crude oil price remained stable at $68.71[5] - The USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.18, up 0.06%[5]

Group 1 - The Mexican President, López Obrador, emphasized the need to strengthen trade cooperation between Mexico and Canada in response to U.S. tariffs imposed by President Trump [1] - López Obrador stated that the trilateral trade agreement between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada must be respected [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that tariffs are expected to have an increasingly significant impact on inflation in the coming months, which aligns with the Federal Reserve's current restrictive policy stance [1][3][6] - John Williams predicts that tariffs will raise inflation rates by approximately 1 percentage point from the second half of this year until 2026 [3][6] - The initial effects of tariff increases on core goods prices are already being observed, particularly in categories such as appliances, instruments, luggage, and tableware [4][6] Group 2 - The U.S. economic growth is forecasted to slow to around 1% this year, with the unemployment rate expected to rise to approximately 4.5% [5][8] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the current interest rate is a balancing act between economic growth and inflation control, as raising rates could further suppress growth while lowering rates could exacerbate inflation [6][7] - Concerns about rising inflation pressures are shared among Federal Reserve officials, indicating a cautious approach to policy-making in light of recent economic data [7][8] Group 3 - The weakening of the dollar may further intensify inflationary pressures, complicating the economic landscape as it affects the prices of imported goods [7][8] - The observed price fluctuations in core goods due to tariffs could lead to changes in consumer behavior and production plans, impacting overall economic performance [7][8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's current tightening policy is deemed "entirely appropriate" by the New York Fed President Williams, who anticipates that tariffs will have a greater impact on inflation in the coming months [1] - Williams expects tariffs to raise inflation rates by approximately one percentage point from the second half of this year until 2026, with a weaker dollar potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures [1] - Recent inflation data indicates that tariffs imposed by Trump on imported goods have started to increase prices for certain items, although overall consumer prices have decreased for five consecutive months due to moderate service cost increases [1] Group 2 - Williams predicts that the economic growth rate will decline to around 1% this year, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise to approximately 4.5% [2] - The importance of an independent central bank for national economic health is emphasized, with Williams stating that it leads to better outcomes in price and economic stability [2] - Despite a more than 8% depreciation of the dollar against a basket of developed market currencies this year, Williams reassures that the dollar's status as a reserve currency remains solid, supported by fundamental factors [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in May, with energy prices rebounding as a key factor [1] - Core CPI growth remained moderate, indicating a rise in inflation breadth and stickiness [1] - The US core goods prices rebounded to 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, marking the second consecutive month of recovery [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Market Implications - The impact of tariffs on inflation is evident but remains moderate, suggesting the Federal Reserve needs more time for assessment before making quick decisions [2] - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter [2] - The data has not significantly affected US stock pricing, with market differentiation occurring under industry logic [2] Group 3: Economic Growth and Investment Trends - The actual GDP growth for Q2 2025 was 5.2%, recovering from 4.6% and 4.7% in the previous two quarters [3] - Nominal GDP growth remains a shortcoming, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in Q2, indicating constraints on microeconomic sentiment [3] - Fixed asset investment growth in June was significantly low, suggesting potential issues with capital formation in the economy [3] Group 4: Agricultural Sector Developments - The dairy industry is experiencing a prolonged loss cycle, with milk prices at a low point for 18 months [4] - Social milk prices have rebounded in Q2 due to the reduction in dairy cow inventory, but profitability remains a challenge for social farms [4] - The upcoming autumn season poses financial pressures on farms due to the need for silage procurement, potentially accelerating industry capacity reduction [4] Group 5: Retail Sector Performance - In June, China's retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with total retail sales amounting to 4.23 trillion yuan [7] - The retail performance varied by category, with food and beverage retail sales showing mixed results [7] - Online retail leaders are reshaping supply chains, improving profitability by closing unprofitable stores [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by a combination of domestic and international factors, including policy announcements, economic data, and geopolitical events. Different sectors show varying trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3][6]. - For stocks, the market may experience style rotations, and it is advisable to go long on IF stock index futures at dips. For bonds, interest rates are expected to trend downward in the long - term, and it is recommended to enter the market at dips. For precious metals, silver is favored for long - positions due to the expected weakening of the Fed's independence. In the non - ferrous metals sector, most metals face different supply - demand situations, with some expected to be under pressure and others to be in a volatile state. In the energy and chemical sector, each product has its own supply - demand characteristics, and investment strategies vary accordingly. In the agricultural products sector, different products also present different investment opportunities based on factors such as supply, demand, and policy [3][6][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Financial Stock Index - **Macro News**: The State Council meeting discussed key policies for the domestic market and the new energy vehicle industry. The national power load hit a new high. Huang Renxun predicted the development of AI in the robot system. US PPI and inflation data were released, and Ethereum prices rose [2]. - **Futures Basis Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH showed different basis ratios. The trading logic suggests paying attention to the impact of US tariffs and the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures at dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: TL, T, and TF contracts declined slightly, while the TS contract rose slightly on Wednesday. - **News**: US CPI data was released, and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September is high. The US - China tariff truce deadline is flexible. - **Strategy**: The economy showed resilience in Q2, but the "rush - to - export" effect may weaken. The central bank's actions indicate a loose money - supply attitude, and it is recommended to enter the bond market at dips [4][6]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX gold fell slightly and COMEX silver rose slightly. - **Market Outlook**: The "removal - of - Fed - chair" incident supported precious metal prices. The weakening of the Fed's independence is expected to drive precious metal prices higher, and it is recommended to go long on silver [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper prices fell, and Shanghai copper prices were stable. LME copper inventory increased, and the cancellation warrant ratio decreased. - **Outlook**: Trump's tariff on copper may widen the price gap between US copper and LME/Shanghai copper, and copper prices are expected to be under pressure and trade in a weak - volatile range [10]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum prices fell, and Shanghai aluminum prices were stable. Shanghai aluminum contract positions decreased, and LME aluminum inventory increased. - **Outlook**: The domestic commodity market is positive, but aluminum has inventory accumulation pressure due to factors such as low - level processing fees and weak downstream demand. Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term [11]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai and LME zinc prices fell. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and zinc ingot production is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish, while in the short - term, they are expected to be volatile due to factors such as Fed policy expectations and the photovoltaic industry [12][13]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai and LME lead prices fell. Lead supply is relatively loose, and social inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to be weak due to a slight oversupply in the lead market [14]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices fell on Wednesday. A fire incident had limited impact on supply. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel demand is weak, and nickel iron prices are expected to fall. It is recommended to go short on nickel at high prices [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices were weak on Tuesday. - **Outlook**: Supply is short, and demand is weak. Due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar, tin prices are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the futures contract price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation is unfavorable, and it is recommended to pay attention to news and market sentiment [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index fell, and the spot price in some regions rose. - **Outlook**: The long - term over - capacity situation remains, and it is recommended to short at high prices considering the overall market sentiment [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: It is in the traditional off - season, and demand is weak. Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [19]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The futures contract price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: It is in the off - season, and prices are expected to face resistance due to factors such as aluminum price pressure and large futures - spot price differences [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices fell slightly, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: The market is affected by the Central Urban Work Conference. The current fundamental contradiction is not obvious, and it is necessary to pay attention to policy signals and demand recovery [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The iron - ore futures price rose, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: Supply is stable, demand is slightly weak, and iron - ore prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price fell slightly, inventory decreased, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price fell, inventory increased, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures prices fell. - **Outlook**: The fundamental situation is bearish, but the short - term market is affected by sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [29][30]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The industrial - silicon futures price fell slightly, and the spot price rose slightly. - **Outlook**: Supply is excessive, and demand is insufficient. It is recommended to be rational and consider hedging for the industry [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices rose and then fluctuated slightly. - **Outlook**: There are different views on the market. It is recommended to be bullish in the medium - term and neutral - to - bullish in the short - term [36][40]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI, Brent, and INE crude - oil futures prices fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The market is in a state of high - reality and low - expectation. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [41]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The methanol futures price fell, and the spot price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply and demand, and it is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The urea futures price rose slightly, and the spot price fell. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [43]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price fell, and the futures price rose. - **Outlook**: The BZN spread may repair, and prices are expected to follow the cost - side [44]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC futures price fell, and the spot price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be under pressure [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG futures price rose, and the spot price fell slightly. - **Outlook**: The short - term is expected to be strong, but the long - term fundamentals are weak [47]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA futures price rose, and the spot price rose slightly. - **Outlook**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is under pressure, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [48]. Para - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX futures price rose, and the CFR price fell. - **Outlook**: The short - term valuation is compressed, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [49]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The PE futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be volatile due to factors such as trade policy and seasonal demand [50]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The PP futures price fell, and the spot price was stable. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be bearish in July due to weak supply and demand [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Pig prices fell. - **Outlook**: Short - term long - positions may be profitable, but there are medium - term supply and hedging pressures [54]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Egg prices were stable or rose. - **Outlook**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short - sell [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Important Information**: US soybeans rebounded, and domestic soybean meal futures fluctuated. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long at low prices and wait for new supply - side drivers [56][58]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data and Indian vegetable oil import data were released. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is expected to be volatile due to factors such as production and policy [59][61]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weak and volatile. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to decline if the external market does not rebound significantly [62][63]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices rose. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to be volatile in the short - term, waiting for new drivers [64].

路透：欧盟对美做两手准备，一边谈判一边拟定反制清单。欧盟发言人表示，欧盟贸易执委谢夫乔维奇前往华盛顿参加与美国的关税谈判，并称他将会见美国商务部长卢特尼克和贸易代表格里尔。负责监督欧盟贸易的欧盟执委会已准备好，如果与华盛顿的贸易谈判失败，将针对价值720亿欧元（836亿美元）的美国商品征收关税，其中包括波音的飞机、波本威士忌和汽车等。 ...

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - LME three-month copper closed at $9,635.00 per ton, down $10.50 or 0.11%, retreating from a recent high of over $10,000 on July 2 [1] - Investors are focusing on the potential increase in copper supply, with no new supply disruption factors currently pushing prices up [5] - LME copper inventory increased by 10,525 tons on Wednesday, marking a 33% surge over the past two and a half weeks [5] Group 2: Global Copper Production and Consumption - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported a global refined copper production of 2.3775 million tons and consumption of 2.2933 million tons for May 2025, resulting in a surplus of 84,200 tons [5] - For the first five months of 2025, global refined copper production was 11.2979 million tons, with consumption at 11.0344 million tons, leading to a surplus of 263,400 tons [5] - Rio Tinto announced a 9% year-on-year increase in quarterly copper production, forecasting that annual production will reach the high end of its guidance range [5] Group 3: Impact of U.S. Tariffs and Currency Fluctuations - Following the announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. effective August 1, traders expecting tariffs have gradually reduced copper exports to the U.S. [5] - A weaker U.S. dollar typically makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for buyers holding other currencies, potentially influencing demand [4] Group 4: Other Base Metals Performance - Three-month tin fell by $513.00 or 1.54%, closing at $32,799.00 per ton, amid concerns over supply surplus [7] - The International Tin Association indicated that tin shipments from Myanmar's Wa State are expected to resume in the coming months after nearly two years of mining bans [8]

Report Key Points 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is "Bullish (Slightly)" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The global risk preference has grown at the fastest rate since 2001, with funds flowing into US stocks, European stocks, and the technology sector, and cash allocation dropping below the 3.9% warning line, indicating a possible market adjustment [1] - US 6 - month CPI did not ease tariff concerns, investors reduced their expectations of a September rate cut, and there was a sell - off of US long - term bonds, with a large amount of funds flowing into the options market betting on a rise in the 30 - year US Treasury yield [1] - As tariff pressure spreads, price pressure will intensify in the coming months, and the Fed may remain on hold [1] - Meta plans to invest billions of dollars in building large - scale data centers, signaling confidence in medium - term revenue growth and an ongoing AI capital expenditure cycle [1] - The French 40 - billion - euro fiscal adjustment plan focuses on revenue increase and expenditure reduction, with most likely coming from spending cuts, and the 30 - year bond yield has reached the highest since 2011 [1] - Trump may introduce pharmaceutical tariffs at the end of the month, and the timeline for chip tariffs is similar [1] - China's GDP grew 5.3% in the first half of the year, Asian exports are strong, and market expects the Fed to cut rates in September and accelerate in 2026 [1] - The US 6 - month Markit manufacturing PMI continued to expand, and China's June PMI production and new order indexes also expanded [1] - China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition may boost listed company performance, the European Central Bank has cut rates 8 times, and Germany's industry shows signs of recovery [1] 3. Summary by Related Content Important Information - Global risk preference growth and market warning: Global risk preference has grown at the fastest rate since 2001, funds are flowing into stocks and tech sectors, and cash allocation is below 3.9%, suggesting a possible market adjustment [1] - US bond market and tariff impact: US 6 - month CPI didn't ease tariff concerns, leading to a sell - off of long - term bonds and funds flowing into the options market betting on a 30 - year US Treasury yield rise [1] - Fed's stance on tariffs: As tariff pressure spreads, price pressure will intensify, and the Fed may wait for clearer inflation and employment signals [1] - Meta's investment in data centers: Meta plans to invest billions in data centers, showing confidence in revenue and an ongoing AI capital cycle [1] - AI evaluation: Nvidia CEO says Chinese AI models are world - class, and AI is changing every industry [1] - French fiscal adjustment: France's 40 - billion - euro fiscal plan faces resistance, with most likely from spending cuts, and the 30 - year bond yield is at a high [1] - Trump's tariff plans: Trump may introduce pharmaceutical and chip tariffs soon [1] Global Economic Logic - Economic growth: China's GDP grew 5.3% in H1, Asian exports are strong, and the market expects Fed rate cuts [1] - Manufacturing PMI: US 6 - month Markit manufacturing PMI continued to expand, and China's June PMI production and new order indexes also expanded [1] - Other economic factors: China's rectification may boost corporate performance, the European Central Bank has cut rates, and Germany's industry shows signs of recovery [1]

Group 1 - U.S. businesses reported increased challenges due to labor shortages and rising import tariffs, leading to a cautious economic outlook [1][3] - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates a slight improvement in economic activity, but uncertainty remains high, causing businesses to be cautious [1][3] - Multiple industries expect sustained cost pressures, which may lead to faster consumer price increases in the coming months [3][4] Group 2 - Employment has seen slight growth, but many businesses plan to delay major hiring or layoffs until uncertainty decreases [3][6] - Immigration enforcement measures under the Trump administration are impacting various sectors, with labor shortages delaying project completions and affecting service availability [3][4] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the effects of tariffs on inflation and overall economic conditions, with concerns about potential price increases due to higher import tariffs [6][7]