美国第二季度进口下降推动GDP表现好于预期（公布值3%，预期2.4%），特朗普随即喊话美联储必须降息。 https://t.co/SuKBgBBlQY ...

特朗普：美联储必须降息。第二季度GDP刚刚公布，比预期好得多。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent Federal Reserve meeting witnessed a dramatic split with two dissenting votes from Bowman and Waller, causing significant turmoil in global financial markets as they opposed the anticipated interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Key Players and Their Positions - Bowman, representing the aggressive rate hike faction, advocates for an immediate 50 basis point increase to combat persistent inflation, particularly in housing and services, which have seen year-on-year increases exceeding 6% [2] - Waller, leading the hawkish faction, supports pausing rate hikes but insists on removing any language suggesting potential rate cuts, thereby shattering market expectations for easing [2] - Powell and the majority of committee members represent the status quo, opting for a compromise by pausing rate hikes while keeping the option open for future increases, hinting that rate cuts will depend on sustained declines in inflation [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the dissenting votes, the US dollar index surged by 1.5%, reaching a three-month high, indicating that internal divisions within the Fed lead to a stronger dollar as a safe haven [3] - Gold prices plummeted by $40, falling below the $1900 mark, reflecting the market's reaction to heightened expectations of aggressive rate hikes [3] - The 2-year Treasury yield rose by 22 basis points, signaling that the bond market anticipates continued monetary tightening [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Signals - Investors are advised to closely monitor the "Bowman Indicator," specifically the US services CPI, as a reading above 5% for three consecutive months could trigger renewed fears of rate hikes [5] - Understanding Waller's rhetoric is crucial; phrases like "data-dependent" may indicate readiness for rate hikes, while "cautious approach" suggests no rate cuts are forthcoming [6] - A suggested investment strategy includes a portfolio allocation of 70% in cash, 15% in energy stocks, and 15% in volatility hedging tools to navigate the current market uncertainty [6] Group 4: Potential Risks and Future Outlook - The looming risk of a technical default arises if the debt ceiling is not resolved before October, compounded by Bowman and Waller's resistance to easing [6] - The commercial real estate sector faces significant challenges with record vacancy rates and high-interest rates potentially leading to loan defaults, which could trigger a regional banking crisis [6] - A sudden OPEC+ production cut could reignite inflation, bolstering support for the Bowman faction and forcing the Fed to make difficult decisions that could impact the stock market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that if the Bank of Canada maintains interest rates, the Canadian dollar (CAD) may depreciate, indicating a potential for future rate cuts [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - The market anticipates only a 15 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, reflecting a conservative pricing approach [1] - **Economic Risks** - Economic risks stemming from US-Canada trade negotiations may lead the Bank of Canada to encourage market expectations for further rate cuts, putting additional pressure on the CAD [1] - **Currency Forecast** - The expectation is that the USD/CAD exchange rate will reach 1.39 in the current quarter [1]

鸽派 1. 美联储古尔斯比：未来一年利率有望大幅下降。如果不确定性消除，降息是有可能实现的。 2. 美联储理事鲍曼：现在是考虑调整政策利率的时候了，若通胀持续下降或劳动力市场疲软，可能会降 息。 3. 美联储理事沃勒：7月降息25个基点合理，劳动力市场疲软风险已充分显现，不应等到劳动力市场恶 化后才下调利率。 中间派 1. 美联储主席鲍威尔：预期夏季期间将出现更高的通胀水平。无法断言7月降息是否过早，不排除任何 一次会议，决策将取决于数据。 2. 美联储威廉姆斯：关税可能进一步推高通胀，目前的利率立场仍完全是合适的。需要看到更多数据， 才能决定下一步政策。 3. 美联储柯林斯：现在是美联储在货币政策方面保持积极耐心的时候，坚实的经济为美联储争取了时 间，以决定下一步行动。 4. 美联储巴尔：关税将对通胀施加上行压力，可能会带来一定的持续性。货币政策已处于良好位置，准 备等待以观察经济状况的变化。 （文章来源：金十数据） 5. 美联储哈玛克：我们尚未达到通胀目标，且不确定关税会有什么影响，保持货币政策的收紧仍然非常 重要。目前尚无迫切降息的必要。（2026年票委） 6. 美联储戴利：通胀前景一直不稳定，无法证明 ...

3. 美联储理事沃勒：7月降息25个基点合理，劳动力市场疲软风险已充分显现，不应等到劳动力市场恶 化后才下调利率。 中间派 金十整理：关税阴影下美联储"三权分立"格局凸显，鸽派、鹰派、中间派官员近期都发表了什么观点？ 鸽派 1. 美联储古尔斯比：未来一年利率有望大幅下降。如果不确定性消除，降息是有可能实现的。 2. 美联储理事鲍曼：现在是考虑调整政策利率的时候了，若通胀持续下降或劳动力市场疲软，可能会降 息。 4. 美联储巴尔：关税将对通胀施加上行压力，可能会带来一定的持续性。货币政策已处于良好位置，准 备等待以观察经济状况的变化。 1. 美联储穆萨勒姆：美联储应该警惕由关税推动的持续通胀，不确定性很高，美联储政策处于良好位 置。 2. 美联储理事库格勒：有许多理由预计关税影响将进一步扩大，在一段时间内维持利率稳定是合适的。 （库格勒本周将缺席美联储会议） 3. 美联储博斯蒂克：未来数月关税对通胀的影响将显著增强，短期内降息可能比较困难，美国经济可能 会经历更长时间的高通胀。（2027年票委） 1. 美联储主席鲍威尔：预期夏季期间将出现更高的通胀水平。无法断言7月降息是否过早，不排除任何 一次会议，决策将取决 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 31 is critical for determining the future direction of gold prices, with potential volatility expected based on Jerome Powell's statements regarding interest rates and inflation [1][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The market anticipates a 96.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain the interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, indicating that this has likely already been priced in [3]. - The key information will depend on whether there are hints of a rate cut in September within the meeting's statement, which could lead to a significant drop in the dollar and a corresponding rise in gold prices [3]. Group 2: Inflation Data - The upcoming PCE data, expected to show a slight increase to 2.5%, will be crucial; if the data comes in below expectations, the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve may increase, benefiting gold bulls [4]. Group 3: Employment Trends - Initial jobless claims are declining, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.1%, indicating resilient employment data, which adds uncertainty to the prospects of a rate cut this year [5]. Group 4: Quantitative Tightening (QT) - The market expects the Federal Reserve to reduce the monthly cap on QT from $47.5 billion to $30 billion, which is akin to easing monetary policy and could provide additional support for gold prices [6][7]. Group 5: Powell's Statements Impact - Jerome Powell's comments during the press conference will be pivotal; if he suggests that action does not need to wait for inflation to return to 2%, gold could surge past the $3,360-$3,380 range. Conversely, if he emphasizes the need for further observation, gold prices may drop below $3,300 [9].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% for the fifth consecutive time during the July meeting [1] - Barclays anticipates at least one dissenting vote in the upcoming decision, with a possibility of two dissenting votes, indicating growing internal divisions within the FOMC [1] - Fed officials Waller and Bowman have expressed support for rate cuts, citing inflation nearing the 2% target and signs of labor market weakness [1] Group 2 - The June meeting minutes reveal that some officials still prefer to keep rates unchanged for the year, with Barclays predicting a 25 basis point cut in December [2] - Deutsche Bank shares a similar outlook, forecasting two additional rate cuts in the first quarter of 2026 [2] - UBS believes that the FOMC's collective decision-making will remain stable despite potential changes in leadership, although upcoming departures may tilt the voting structure towards a dovish stance [2] Group 3 - Market analysts note that tariff policies are increasing prices for trade-sensitive goods, contributing to inflationary pressures [2] - UBS is optimistic about high-rated bonds and gold allocations, projecting a year-end target price of $3,500 per ounce for gold [2] - The dollar is expected to stabilize after recent fluctuations, with a year-end target of 1.21 for the euro against the dollar [2]

黄金上周周一周二大涨，一度上涨至3438美元的位置。驱动此轮上涨的核心动能，主要源于美国政治层面给货币政策带来的巨 大不确定性。 鲍威尔罢免概率上升 佛罗里达州众议员Luna近日公开指控美联储主席鲍威尔在涉及美联储总部大楼奢华翻修项目的陈述中涉嫌作伪证，引发市场对 其主席职位稳定性的担忧。共和党议员Luna指称鲍威尔在两件事上说谎，一个是美联储大楼内的奢华设施，另一个是大楼的实 际维护情况。美联储大楼翻修从2017年在美联储理事会批准，成本从2021年预计的19亿美元上升至31亿美元。特朗普抨击翻修 工程的成本过高，该项目严重超支。特朗普更提出，如果想平息白宫的不满，美联储需要降息。如果把利率降低至1%，美国就 能省下一万多亿美元。 关税风云再起 同时，贸易政策风险卷土重来。特朗普政府宣布将原定7月9日到期的"对等关税"决定推迟至8月1日，并多次威胁若届时未达成 协议，将对各国征收更高的关税税率。最新消息显示，特朗普表示这一利率不会低于15%，将对世界其他大部分国家征收15%至 50%的简单关税。这一"最后期限"的临近，无疑为市场增添了新的波动。 百利好特约智昇研究国际金融分析师欧文认为，虽然7月底的美联储议 ...

美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将于北京时间周四凌晨2:00公布利率决议，30分钟后美联储主席 鲍威尔将召开会后新闻发布会。尽管不太可能出台重大政策决定，但本周的会议仍充满看点。 几乎可以肯定的是，美联储的表述将与6月会议大同小异——声明内容变动不大，官员们连续第五次会 议暂缓降息。然而，几个耐人寻味的支线剧情将上演。 沃勒和鲍曼在会议前均主张降息，称鉴于关税对通胀的传导尚未显现，且如沃勒两周前在演讲中所描述 的，劳动力市场"处于边缘"，此时是美联储宽松的时机。 "通胀接近目标，通胀上行风险有限，我们不应等到劳动力市场恶化才降息，"沃勒在题为《现在就该降 息的理由》的演讲中表示。 这些言论可能会引起特朗普共鸣，不过CNBC对市场专家和经济学家的调查显示，仅14%的人认为沃勒 会获得提名，接替2026年5月任期届满的鲍威尔。排在沃勒之前的热门人选包括财政部长斯科特·贝森特 （Scott Bessent）、前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）和国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）。 特朗普曾呼吁鲍威尔辞职，甚至威胁解雇他（后作罢），并将FOMC拒绝降息归咎于这位央行领导人。 ...