Core Insights - The focus of the article is on the impact of tariffs and Federal Reserve policies on gold prices, suggesting that significant catalysts for price movement are approaching [1] Group 1: Tariffs and Federal Reserve Impact - Tariffs are highlighted as a key factor influencing market dynamics, particularly in relation to gold prices [1] - The Federal Reserve's decisions and actions are also emphasized as critical elements that could affect gold market trends [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Real-time analysis of gold order flows is being conducted, indicating a proactive approach to understanding market movements [1] - The mention of prominent figures, referred to as "阿汤哥" and "顺姐," suggests that expert insights are being utilized to interpret current market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The increase in prices of various goods, including coffee, audio equipment, and household items, has led to a rise in inflation in June, indicating that the costs of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are being passed on to consumers [1][2]. Inflation Data - The overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 0.3% month-on-month in June, translating to an annualized rate of approximately 3.5%, compared to a mere 0.1% increase in May [1]. - The core inflation, excluding food and energy, was reported to be lower than expected, suggesting that inflation is being stabilized under Trump's administration [3]. Tariff Impact - Economists predict that the delayed effects of tariffs will accelerate inflation over the summer, with significant price increases observed in imported goods such as audio equipment, which saw a monthly increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 11.1%, marking the highest increase on record for this category [1][5]. - The impact of tariffs is expected to continue influencing inflation, with estimates suggesting that new tariffs could increase the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price level by approximately 0.4 percentage points if fully transmitted [4]. Federal Reserve Response - The Federal Reserve is cautious about interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a rate cut in September becoming uncertain due to rising inflation concerns [2][3]. - The Boston Fed President warned that rising import taxes will likely continue to push inflation higher while suppressing growth and employment [2]. Consumer Behavior - Despite rising prices, strong balance sheets for businesses and households may help absorb the shock of tariffs, potentially limiting negative impacts on the labor market and economic growth [2]. - The price increases in categories such as household goods and entertainment indicate that the effects of tariffs are gradually permeating through the economy [3][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in gold prices influenced by U.S. inflation data and bond yields, highlighting a recent decline in gold prices followed by a slight recovery in Asian markets. It also emphasizes the ongoing interest of global central banks in accumulating gold as a strategic asset. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - On July 15, gold prices fell significantly due to moderate U.S. inflation data and rising U.S. Treasury yields, with spot gold closing down $18.74, a decrease of 0.56%, at $3324.60 per ounce [1] - As of July 16, gold prices turned upward in Asian markets, with COMEX gold rising by 0.37% and London gold increasing by 0.56% [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also seen a decline, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang reporting decreases in their gold prices per gram [3] Group 2: U.S. Inflation Data - The U.S. core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in June compared to May, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, marking the fifth consecutive month of inflation data falling below expectations [4][5] - The report indicates that certain categories, particularly those affected by tariffs, have seen price increases, while new and used car prices have decreased [5] Group 3: Central Bank Gold Accumulation - Global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, with a reported net purchase of 20 tons in May. As of the end of June, China's official gold reserves increased by 7,000 ounces [9] - The chief investment officer of DBS Bank expressed optimism about the gold market, projecting a target price of $3765 per ounce for gold by the fourth quarter of 2024 [8] - The article notes that the amount of gold purchased by central banks in the past three years has exceeded the total of the previous decade, suggesting a strong long-term demand for gold [9]

Inflation Trends - June CPI year-on-year growth rebounded slightly to 2.7%, while core CPI increased to 2.9%[1] - Energy prices showed a narrowing decline, with electricity prices rising 5.8% year-on-year, influenced by increased demand from data centers and aging infrastructure[1][15] - Gasoline CPI decline narrowed to -8.3%, a significant improvement of 3.7 percentage points from the previous month[1][15] Commodity and Service Inflation - Core commodity year-on-year growth rose to 0.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating that tariff costs are being gradually passed on to consumers[4][17] - Core service inflation remained stable at 3.6%, with rent growth holding steady at 3.8%[21] - The overall service inflation lacks strong upward momentum, limiting significant rebounds[21] Economic Outlook - Market expectations suggest two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve within the year, with the earliest cut anticipated in September[26] - The rebound in inflation is primarily driven by energy and core commodity inflation, while core service inflation remains stable[26] - Risks include potential unexpected tightening by the Federal Reserve and further economic downturns in the U.S.[30]

Group 1 - US stock index futures are declining due to ongoing inflation pressures and potential new tariff threats, leading traders to significantly lower expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year [1][2] - Recent US inflation data indicates that companies have begun passing some tariff-related costs onto consumers, which has quickly diminished market bets on Fed rate cuts [2] - The S&P 500 futures fell by 0.3%, suggesting that US stocks may close lower for the second consecutive trading day [1][2] Group 2 - The market's expectations for Fed rate cuts have narrowed significantly this month, particularly after strong June employment data released on July 3, which dispelled rate cut expectations for the July 30 meeting and weakened bets for September [2] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that while policymakers may need to keep rates at current levels longer to fully cool inflation, they might also need to consider rate cuts if inflation and the labor market weaken [2] - Analysts generally believe that the Fed will remain on hold in the short term, with concerns over tariffs contributing to inflation and risks from increased government spending in major economies affecting the US bond market [2]

Group 1 - The international silver market is experiencing a fluctuating trend, with the price at $37.83 per ounce, reflecting a 0.35% increase as investors await the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) announcement for further Federal Reserve cues [1] - The U.S. has announced reciprocal tariffs on major trading partners, including the EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico, and South Korea, adding uncertainty to global trade dynamics [3] - The U.S. inflation rate has surged to 2.7% year-on-year, driven by rising prices of imported goods, raising questions about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts in September [3] Group 2 - Silver prices opened at $38.094, peaked at $38.374, and closed at $37.685, indicating a bearish trend with potential targets at $37.8 and $37.5, and further support at $37.30-$37.50 [4] - The silver market is under pressure as the gold-silver ratio rises above 88.00, with a significant support level at $37.30; a break below this level could lead to testing the next support at $35.65-$35.85 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of Bank Indonesia indicates that tariffs are expected to weaken economic activity, particularly in developed countries [1] Group 1 - Tariffs are anticipated to have a negative impact on economic activities [1] - The focus is on the effects of tariffs in developed nations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range with a downward trend and weak operation [1] - The price of aluminum ingots is expected to move in a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of construction steel production [2] - In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown plans, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased 40.3% month - on - month and increased 43.2% year - on - year [3] - Finished products continued to decline yesterday, with prices hitting new lows. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish [3] Aluminum - In the US, consumer price inflation in June reached a five - month high, which may lead the Fed to wait and see before September [2] - As of last Thursday, the national alumina operating rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 79.92%, with some enterprises in Shandong and Guangxi under maintenance [3] - Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by its own ships, and its bauxite exports have increased 37% in 2025 [3] - As of the end of June, alumina enterprise inventories increased by 81,000 tons [3] - Last week, the aluminum processing industry's operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 58.6% [3] - On July 14, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic main consumption areas increased by 35,000 tons compared with last Thursday [3] - Since the end of June, the reduction of aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum in July, and the supply of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [3] - The decline in aluminum prices on Monday was due to the short - term impact of concentrated arrivals over the weekend [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. stock market, Hong Kong stock market, and the Indian market Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Stock Market Outlook** - The resilience of inflation may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, impacting market expectations for rate reductions [1] - As of May 11, 2025, nearly 78% of U.S. companies have reported Q1 earnings, indicating a strong earnings season [1] - The second half of the year is expected to release positive news for corporate earnings, including tax cuts and regulatory relaxations [2] 2. **Gold Market Insights** - Among the 12 major gold ETFs, only 5 have seen increased holdings, with a notable decline in the number of shares held [2] - The week saw a 0.7% decrease in gold trust holdings compared to the previous week, indicating a trend of institutional selling and retail buying [2] 3. **Hong Kong Stock Market Trends** - The Hang Seng Index has been in a rebound trend for four consecutive weeks, currently above 25,000 [3] - Market sentiment regarding tariff negotiations is cautious, with no optimistic expectations for immediate results [3][4] - The potential for a defensive market strategy is suggested, with a slight improvement in risk appetite compared to the previous month [5] 4. **Investment Strategy Recommendations for Hong Kong** - Focus on AI technology and domestic consumption sectors, while also considering high-yield investments as a defensive measure [7] - The global narrative around technology remains strong, with positive earnings from U.S. tech companies boosting market expectations [7][8] 5. **Indian Market Perspective** - The Indian market is viewed positively despite recent declines, as it is seen as a defensive asset with limited negative impact from global tariffs [10] - Foreign capital is gradually flowing into the Indian stock market, indicating a long-term positive outlook [11] 6. **General Market Sentiment** - The overall sentiment for both U.S. and Hong Kong markets remains cautious, with expectations of potential rebounds but also recognition of underlying risks [12][13] - The discussion highlights the importance of geopolitical risks and their impact on market dynamics, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [6][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for early dividend payouts by companies in anticipation of currency pressures later in the year [8] - The need for a careful assessment of tariff negotiations and their implications for market performance [4][13] - The emphasis on maintaining a balanced investment approach that considers both growth opportunities and defensive strategies in light of global uncertainties [9][12]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏强，上涨 0.15%至 9657.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.18%至 78070 | | | 元/吨；国内现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国 6 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%，为 2 月以来 | | | 最高纪录，略超过预期 2.6%和前值 2.4%；核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.9%符合预期，高于前值 | | | 2.8%。该数据显示受关税影响，美国通胀小幅回升，但仍较温和，不过这也意味着美联 | | | 储可能不会提前降息，7 月和 8 月数据将更受关注。市场继续关注关税方面，继特朗普 | | | 单方面向向各大经济体发关税函后，一些经济体也做出相应的反馈，如欧盟和巴西表 | | | 示将公布对等反制措施，而印尼等国表示接受。国内方面，中国 6 月社融增量 4.2 万亿 | | | 元，新增人民币贷款 2.24 万亿元，M2-M1 剪刀差缩小，中国 6 月按美元计出口同比 | | 铜 | 增长 5.8%，进口增长 1.1%。 ...