英国央行行长贝利：英国劳动力市场正在走软，正关注其对CPI产生多大影响。 ...

英国央行表示，英国GDP增长似乎仍然疲软，劳动力市场继续放松，导致更明显的迹象表明，随着时间 的推移，疲软的边际已经打开。薪酬增长指标继续放缓，与5月份一样，委员会预计今年剩余时间将显 著放缓。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's committee members supporting interest rate cuts noted a significant further loosening in the labor market, consumer demand is being suppressed, and wage levels are approaching sustainable levels [1] Group 1 - The labor market has experienced substantial further loosening [1] - Consumer demand is currently under pressure [1] - Wage levels are nearing sustainable levels [1]

美联储官员在北京时间周四凌晨宣布维持利率稳定的同时，为下半年降息敞开了大门，但表示他们并不 急于降息。 《华尔街日报》著名记者，素有"美联储传声筒"、"美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos连发两篇文章点 评此次美联储FOMC利率决议。以下是他的主要看法： 要恢复去年开始的降息，美联储官员可能需要看到劳动力市场走软，或者有更有力的证据表明关税引发 的物价上涨将相对温和。最新公布的预测显示，官员们对是否能在秋季之前获得这些证据持开放态度。 新的利率预测凸显了参加会议的19位美联储官员之间的分歧。其中10位官员预计今年将至少降息两次， 这一比例较3月份有所缩小，2位官员则预计将降息一次。同时，有7位官员表示今年不会有任何降息， 而3月份持此观点的只有4人。 经济预测显示，官员们预计今年的通胀率和失业率上升幅度将超过3月份的预测。 对于美联储来说，这次的经济预测可能是一个混乱的组合，因为它可能迫使官员们在通过降低利率来重 点支撑劳动力市场，还是通过保持利率不变来抵御更高的通胀率之间做出选择。 目前，美联储在设定利率时并不着眼于帮助管理联邦借贷支出，而是专注于维持低而稳定的通胀和强劲 的劳动力市场。美联储之所 ...

Group 1 - The gold TD market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a current price of 781.87 CNY per gram, showing a slight decline of 0.04% [1] - The highest price reached was 785.60 CNY per gram, while the lowest was 780.79 CNY per gram during the trading session [1] Group 2 - Analyst Enda Curran notes that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks do not appear particularly dovish, indicating satisfaction with the current economic conditions while being cautious about the impact of tariffs on inflation [2] - Analyst Roseanne Briggen highlights that traders initially expected a hawkish stance from the FOMC, but the outcome was contrary, with the Fed maintaining its position and indicating a potential 50 basis points cut in 2025 [2] - Powell acknowledges a gradual cooling in the labor market but emphasizes that the strong labor participation rate and good wage growth mitigate concerns, expressing a willingness to wait for more information before deciding on future actions [2] Group 3 - The current resistance level for gold T+D is identified in the range of 805-810 CNY per gram, while the support level is noted at 755-760 CNY per gram [3]

宏观观点 美联储 6 月继续暂停降息，关税 对通胀的影响仍是降息关键 6 月美联储会议继续决定暂停降息，符合市场预期。会议声明和季度 经济预测更新（SEP）的主要变化有： 扫码关注浦银国际研究 本研究报告由浦银国际证券有限公司分析师编制，请仔细阅读本报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露及免责声明。 浦银国际 宏观观点 美联储 6 金晓雯，PhD，CFA 1. 应对关税挑战，美联储下调了今明两年 GDP 预测，上调了 2025- 2027 年的失业率和通胀预期，这或意味滞涨风险上升。会议声明 的最显著变化是关于不确定性的表述。声明称"经济前景有关的不 确定性已经减弱，但仍然偏高"，而上次声明的说辞是"经济前景 有关的不确定性进一步增加"。而美联储的 SEP 经济预测调整似乎 计入了现有关税政策对经济的影响：首先，SEP 再次下调今年的经 济增速预测至 1.4%（此前为 1.7%），和我们在下半年展望报告中下 修后的 1.3%经济增速预测接近。明年的经济增速预测也被下调 0.2 个百分点到 1.6%。美联储亦再次上调今年失业率预期 0.1 个百分 点到 4.5%。明后年的失业率预测分别上调 0.2 和 0.1 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：很难判断人工智能对劳动力市场的影响。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：除边际闲置外，没有看到劳动力市场的闲置程度加剧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicates that while the labor market may be gradually cooling, the strong labor participation rate and good wage growth mitigate concerns about this cooling [1] Group 1 - Powell acknowledges the current uncertainty in the economic outlook remains at a high level, despite some improvements [1] - The labor market conditions, along with reasonable economic growth and gradually declining inflation, lead Powell to prefer waiting for more information before making further decisions [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：劳动力市场并未迫切需要降息。 ...