11月18日周二，美元指数（DXY）在99.55附近整理，市场聚焦因政府停摆推迟的美国经济数据，其中 周四的9月非农就业报告为核心。美联储官员释放劳动力市场疲软信号，使12月降息预期降至43%。数 据与讲话落地前投资者观望情绪浓厚，美元短线方向将取决于非农表现。 美元指数技术面分析 从日线结构观察，美元指数目前运行于20日均线下方，短线趋势仍偏弱势，但99.50区域已形成较强支 撑。若指数能站稳该支撑区间，并重新突破20日均线（约99.90位置），将打开向100.50的反弹空间。 指标层面，14日RSI指标位于45-50区间，反映市场动能中性偏弱，且尚未触及超卖区域，意味着短线大 概率延续震荡格局。若后续跌破99.40支撑位，下行目标将指向99.10及98.80的阶梯式支撑区间。 官员言论的密集释放，直接引发市场对美联储政策预期的调整。据CME FedWatch工具数据显示，当前 交易员预期美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已降至43%，较一周前的62%大幅回落，与一个月前"几乎 确定降息"的市场共识形成鲜明反差。 综合来看，在重磅数据落地前，美元指数维持中性偏弱的整理格局，而劳动力市场的实际信号，将成为 锚定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, while discussing the impacts of recent inflation surges, labor market prospects, and the restrictiveness of monetary policy [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - RBA members unanimously agreed to keep the interest rate steady, reflecting a cautious approach to current economic conditions [1] - The central bank has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points during the current easing cycle, reaching the lowest level since April 2023 [1] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The committee discussed whether the financial environment remains tight, concluding it is still "slightly restrictive," but acknowledging that this may change [1] - The focus has shifted towards the potential extent of further rate cuts, given the tight labor market and sluggish productivity growth [1] Group 3: Data-Driven Approach - RBA members emphasized the importance of patience in assessing new data regarding capacity utilization, labor market outlook, and the degree of monetary policy restrictiveness [1] - The committee believes that a cautious and data-dependent approach is appropriate in the current environment [1]

Market Overview - Major indices in the US experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 557.24 points (1.18%) to 46,590.24, the Nasdaq down by 192.51 points (0.84%) to 22,708.07, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 61.7 points (0.92%) to 6,672.41 [1] - In Europe, the DAX30 index dropped by 283.38 points (1.19%) to 23,603.69, the FTSE 100 fell by 22.72 points (0.23%) to 9,675.65, and the CAC40 decreased by 51.07 points (0.63%) to 8,119.02 [1] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin fell over 2.5%, dropping below $92,000, while Ethereum declined more than 3%, falling below $3,000 [3] Commodities - Light crude oil futures for December delivery decreased by $0.18, closing at $59.91 per barrel, while January Brent crude oil futures fell by $0.19 to $64.20 per barrel, both reflecting a decline of 0.3% [2] - Spot gold decreased by 0.97%, priced at $4,045.87. Goldman Sachs indicated that central banks may have purchased a significant amount of gold in November, with expectations for gold prices to reach $4,900 by the end of 2026 [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for a rate cut in December, citing concerns over a weakening labor market and the impact of monetary policy on low-income consumers [5] - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson noted an increase in downside risks to employment but emphasized the need for cautious policy adjustments as rates approach neutral levels [9] Corporate News - Amazon initiated a $12 billion corporate bond issuance, marking its first high-rated bond issuance in three years, with proceeds potentially used for debt repayment, acquisitions, and investments [10] - The European Union is assessing whether major cloud service providers, including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, should be subject to new regulatory obligations under the Digital Markets Act [11] Analyst Ratings - Jefferies raised the target price for Sohu (SOHU.US) from $18 to $20 [12] - Stifel analyst Stephen Gengaro increased the target price for Tesla (TSLA.US) from $483 to $508, citing progress in the company's autonomous driving and ride-hailing products [13]

周一，下任美联储主席的热门人选、现任美联储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）表示，他支持在美联 储12月会议上再次降息，原因是他对劳动力市场以及招聘大幅放缓感到担忧。 周一，美联储副主席杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson）表示，他认为就业面临的下行风险有所上升，不过他也 重申，随着利率接近中性水平，决策者需要更加谨慎、缓步推进： 沃勒在伦敦向一群经济学家发表的预备讲话中表示： 我并不担心通胀加速或通胀预期显著上升。我关注的是劳动力市场。经过数月的走弱，我认 为本周稍后公布的9月就业报告，或未来几周的任何其他数据，都不大可能改变我认为需要 再次降息的观点。 沃勒明确表示，他支持再降息25个基点。另一位美联储理事史蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran），和沃勒一 样由美国总统特朗普任命，米兰在此前两次会议中倾向于降息50个基点。 尽管沃勒近月多次发声支持降息，但他也根据最新情况更新了自己的观点。由于近期政府关门导致官方 数据缺失，他引用了多项私人及少量公共部门的指标，显示劳动力市场需求疲弱以及消费者承压。 与此同时，他表示，价格数据表明关税不会对通胀产生持久影响。再次降息将是一种"风险管理" ...

来源：滚动播报 美联储沃勒：金融市场宽松状况不在我的职责范围内，我关注的是通胀和劳动力市场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant division among policymakers regarding interest rate decisions, breaking a long-standing consensus under Chairman Powell's leadership [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - In late October, the Federal Reserve decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points with a narrow majority, marking the first time since 2019 that there were opposing votes among decision-makers [2]. - The division among Federal Reserve officials is a direct result of economic uncertainty and the impact of President Trump's aggressive trade policies, leading to differing priorities between controlling inflation and supporting a weakening labor market [2][3]. - The complexity of decision-making has increased, as the Fed previously needed to lower borrowing costs significantly during the pandemic and then raised rates aggressively in 2022 to combat inflation [4]. Group 2: Implications of Division - A more divided Federal Reserve may have mixed implications for its effectiveness and credibility, with some economists suggesting it could lead to more moderate actions [5][6]. - The lack of key economic data due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has made it more challenging for the Fed to assess the economy, complicating future decisions [6][7]. Group 3: Perspectives of Federal Reserve Officials - Some officials, including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, voted against the rate cut, citing concerns over rising costs and inflation [7]. - Conversely, officials advocating for further rate cuts argue that tariffs are unlikely to have a lasting impact on inflation and express concerns about the labor market's potential decline if rate cuts are not implemented swiftly [8].

今日周一(11月17日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于12005一线下方，今日开盘于12220元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报11956元/千克，下跌3.89%，最高触及12251元/千克，最低下探11854元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 美联储洛根周五再次暗示，她将反对美联储在12月份降息，此前她曾反对美联储在10月份降息，因为她 担心通胀过高，趋向上升，要达到美联储的2%目标需要太长时间。 另外备受关注的10月美国非农就业报告将于周四发布，随后是周三的FOMC纪要。这反过来将在影响短 期美元价格动态并为贵金属提供一些有意义的推动力方面发挥关键作用。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银经过上周刷新高点，最高在12660附近，目前收盘在12000之上，本周在确定低点后继续看涨，不管 是震荡上行还是单边走高，上周预计目标在12500，银溢价扩大至340元/克，沪银情绪依旧偏强。 洛根称"当我展望12月会议时，我认为很难支持再次降息，除非我们有令人信服的证据表明通胀下降的 速度确实快于我的预期，或者我们看到劳动力市场不只是逐渐降温。" 洛根强调，政 ...

基本面： 周一（11月17日）亚市早盘，白银价格震荡微涨，周一开盘后白银随着黄金震荡。市场关注美联储官员讲话，达拉斯联储主席洛根的立场同样强硬，她在同 一场合重申，通胀水平不仅过高，还呈现上升趋势，距离2%的目标还有漫长的路要走。除非本周涌现出"令人信服"的证据显示通胀降速超预期，或劳动力 市场降温加速，否则她难以支持进一步降息。洛根虽无投票权，但她的声音在政策辩论中影响力巨大，她认为当前就业市场的渐进式冷却正是美联储希望看 到的"合适"节奏，无需额外"先发制人"的保险措施来搅局。这些鹰派信号如雪上加霜，让市场对12月降息的预期从周初的60%以上直线滑落至不足46%， 这种不确定性对黄金的影响是毁灭性的。非孳息资产如黄金，本就依赖低利率环境来绽放光芒，一旦美联储的"暂停键"按下，机会成本陡增，资金便会从金 市外流。，正是这种预期转变，削弱了黄金和白银的涨势，导致周五盘中金价一度下探3%以上。，这波抛售如"势不可挡的潮水"，席卷了金属、股市，凸 显了短期情绪对央行信号的极度敏感。尽管如此，Welsh也提醒，黄金过去一年的累计涨幅已逾30%，其结构性支撑——宏观风险、地缘动荡、中央银行囤 积需求——仍牢不可破，短 ...

澳大利亚国民银行经济学家泰勒·纽金特在评论中称，这些官员仍对美联储在12月降息的可能性持怀疑 态度。他指出，达拉斯联储主席洛根表示，除非出现令人信服的证据显示通胀加速下行或劳动力市场降 温幅度超过预期，否则适度的限制性政策是合适的。 纽金特补充称，堪萨斯城联储主席施密德也指出，进一步降息可能更倾向于助推通胀顽固而非支撑劳动 力市场。 LSEG数据显示，美元兑韩元上涨0.6%至1456.60，澳元兑美元下跌0.2%至0.6524。 来源：环球市场播报 亚洲货币周一早盘多数兑美元下跌，上周五美联储官员的鹰派言论持续施压。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment rating for the artificial intelligence (AI) sector remains positive, suggesting further investment opportunities despite significant growth already observed [1]. Core Insights - The global economic team estimates the potential capital gains value of AI to be as high as $8 trillion, indicating that further investment is justified [3]. - The current AI investment cycle is believed to be in its early stages, with the market value of AI-related companies having surpassed the $8 trillion estimate since the end of 2022 [3]. - There are no significant signs of a macro bubble similar to the 1990s tech bubble, as the increase in AI-driven investment spending has been modest and short-lived [6]. - The financial health of corporate sectors is stable, with a steady U.S. current account deficit and narrow credit spreads, suggesting a lack of immediate risk for market adjustments [6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to remain stable in the coming months, with no recession anticipated, and the Federal Reserve likely to adopt more accommodative policies [9]. - By early 2026, the growth outlook is expected to be more optimistic, which should positively impact stock market performance [9]. Labor Market and Policy Considerations - The labor market will be a key macro issue to monitor in 2026, as its stability could reduce expectations of downside risks [10]. - The nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair and the composition of the 2026 FOMC will also be critical in determining policy direction and uncertainty [10]. Investment Strategies - Protective positions or strategies that capture upside exposure while limiting downside risk are recommended to navigate potential market volatility [7]. - If economic prosperity continues and debt usage increases, there may be an expansion in credit spreads, providing exposure to credit issuance stories and downside risks in the real economy [7].