美联储理事沃勒在最近一次讲话中表示："私营部门就业增长已接近停滞速度。"沃勒在讲话中强调了降 低利率的理由。"其他数据表明，劳动力市场的下行风险有所增加。鉴于通胀已接近目标水平，且通胀 上行风险有限，我们不应等到劳动力市场恶化才下调政策利率。" 许多华尔街经济学家和美联储决策者预计今年失业率将攀升。牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家Nancy Vanden Houten在上周五发布的一份研究报告中表示，牛津经济研究院预计劳动力市场状况将有所疲 软，关税的影响将开始渗透到通胀和实际消费支出中。 美国银行对周五的就业报告期望不高，该行预计7月份非农就业人数将增加6万人，低于增加10万人的普 遍预期。 "如果该预测是正确的，市场的下意识反应可能会是鸽派的，"美国经济学家Aditya Bhave在周二的一份 报告中说。"然而，我们鼓励投资者更多地关注私营部门的就业增长和失业率。" 他指出，尽管6月份政府就业人数大幅增加，但这似乎是一种季节性扭曲。他预测，美国劳工统计局7月 份的数据将显示政府总就业人数减少2.5万人。 Bhave表示，更重要的故事在于私营部门的就业数据。"我们认为私营部门的就业人数将从6月份的+7.4 万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, highlighting three distinct factions with differing views on when to implement such cuts [1][5][10]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The Federal Reserve is divided into three main camps: a faction eager for immediate rate cuts due to concerns over the labor market, a middle group waiting for more data on tariff impacts, and a cautious faction preferring to see clear signs of economic weakness before acting [1][5][10]. - The middle camp, represented by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, emphasizes the instability of inflation forecasts and the risks of waiting too long to cut rates, suggesting a need for further data analysis over the next two months [6][10]. - The more aggressive faction, including Fed governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, advocates for immediate rate cuts, arguing that delaying action could worsen labor market conditions [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Signals and Political Pressure - The article notes that the internal divisions are exacerbated by inflation concerns stemming from tariff threats, which have previously led the Fed to pause rate cuts [2][3]. - Political pressure from former President Trump complicates the Fed's decision-making process, as he has been vocal about urging rate cuts and has made public appearances to influence Fed Chair Jerome Powell [9][10]. - Economic data presents mixed signals, with stock markets reaching record highs while long-term bond yields remain elevated, suggesting that the economy may be strong enough to withstand current interest rates [11][12]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Market participants are closely monitoring the Fed's internal debates, particularly Powell's comments during the upcoming press conference, for indications of a potential rate cut in September [14][15]. - Additional employment and inflation data over the next two months will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making, especially for the middle camp that stresses the importance of this data in making informed policy choices [16].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a recent decline in job vacancies in the U.S. labor market, with June's vacancies dropping from a revised 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million, indicating a subtle market adjustment while remaining above the average level of the past year [1][3] - The decrease in job vacancies is not confined to specific industries but is widespread across sectors such as accommodation and food services, healthcare, and finance and insurance, suggesting a multifaceted cooling trend in the labor market [3] - Despite the reduction in job vacancies, the overall demand for labor remains relatively strong, as the current levels are still higher than pre-pandemic averages, although hiring speeds have slowed and the time for unemployed individuals to find new jobs has increased [3] Group 2 - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is expected to focus on these labor market changes, with Chairman Jerome Powell previously describing the labor market as "robust" while acknowledging uncertainties related to tariff inflation [3] - The job openings to unemployment ratio, a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve, currently stands at 1.1, significantly lower than the peak of 2:1 in 2022, providing a new perspective on the health of the labor market [4] - The stability of the layoff rate at low levels and the decrease in the resignation rate reflect a decline in confidence among individuals regarding their ability to find new jobs, indicating new challenges in the supply-demand balance of the labor market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the US dollar is primarily attributed to progress in trade relations, with agreements reached between the US and major economies, reducing the likelihood of escalating trade conflicts [3][4]. Trade Relations - The US has successfully negotiated trade agreements with the UK, Japan, and the EU before the August 1 deadline, alleviating concerns about the US economic outlook and debt issues [3]. - Ongoing negotiations between the US and China aim to extend the trade truce by three months, with market focus on the potential outcomes of the leaders' meeting and the duration of the tariff suspension [3]. Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to take action in its upcoming meeting, as the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to manifest in the third quarter [4]. - Rising import costs due to tariffs are increasing production costs for businesses, heightening the risk of economic slowdown, which may eventually lead to higher inflation for consumers and the labor market [4]. - Fed Chair Powell has indicated that if inflation proves to be temporary, the FOMC may restart the rate-cutting cycle, suggesting a shift in focus towards labor market performance rather than inflation outlook [4]. Employment Data - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming US non-farm payroll report, with expectations of a 109,000 increase in July employment figures [4]. - A slowdown in the labor market could significantly raise expectations for a rate cut in September, potentially putting more pressure on the dollar [4]. Long-term Outlook - In the medium term, the US dollar assets face uncertainties related to tariffs, inflation, and fiscal deficits [5]. - The US's large-scale fiscal measures have not effectively addressed its debt issues, leading to a decline in confidence in dollar assets and prompting investors to diversify into other currencies [5].

三大阵营的政策分歧日趋明显 美联储内部分歧加剧，市场关注9月降息的可能性。 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos近日发表文章称，美联储官员们虽然同意最终 需要恢复降息，但本周不会行动，他们对何时恢复降息存在严重分歧。 文章认为，目前，美联储内部已经分化为三个不同的阵营：一派想马上降息，担心劳动力市场恶化；中 间派想等更多数据确认关税影响温和；另一派则更谨慎，等看到明显经济疲软才行动。 这种内部分歧源于关税威胁引发通胀担忧，导致美联储此前屡屡暂停降息。 然而，随着关税传导的价格上涨幅度比预期温和，而就业市场显现疲软迹象，叠加特朗普的施压，联储 内部的分歧趋于复杂。 文章指出，焦点是周三FOMC会后鲍威尔在记者会上有关9月是否降息的暗示。 文章指出，虽然沃勒和鲍曼可能的反对票将成为五年来首次有FOMC会议出现"唱反调"的情况，并带来 新的头条新闻，但这实际上凸显了大多数美联储官员对过快行动的普遍谨慎态度，而非对其构成挑战。 保守派则采取了更加鹰派的立场，如亚特兰大联储主席拉斐尔·博斯蒂克（Raphael Bostic）担心，关税 公告虽已出，但实际征收率低，价格压力可能在夏末才显现。 ...

Group 1 - The number of job openings in the U.S. decreased from a revised 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, below the market expectation of 7.5 million, indicating a cooling labor market but still a stable overall demand for workers [1] - The decline in job openings was broad-based, primarily driven by the accommodation and food services, healthcare, and finance and insurance sectors [1] - The job openings remain above pre-pandemic average levels, suggesting a relatively healthy demand for workers despite a slowdown in hiring and longer time for unemployed individuals to find new positions [1] Group 2 - The hiring rate in June slowed to 3.3%, the lowest level since November of the previous year, while layoffs remained low and voluntary resignations were scarce, indicating decreased confidence in finding new jobs [1] - The ratio of unemployed workers to job openings remained at 1.1, down from a peak of 2:1 in 2022, which is closely monitored by Federal Reserve officials as a measure of labor supply and demand balance [2] - An independent report indicated that consumer confidence in July improved as concerns about the broader economy and labor market outlook eased [2]

Group 1 - The number of job vacancies in the U.S. decreased to 7.44 million in June, down from a revised 7.71 million in May, indicating a cooling trend in labor market demand [1][4] - The decline in job vacancies affected multiple sectors, including accommodation and food services, healthcare, and finance and insurance, suggesting a broad slowdown in job demand [1][4] - The current level of job vacancies remains above pre-pandemic averages, indicating overall healthy demand for labor, despite a slowdown in hiring pace [4] Group 2 - The hiring rate fell to 3.3% in June, the lowest since November of the previous year, while the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals remained at 1.1, a key indicator monitored by the Federal Reserve [4] - Some economists have raised concerns about the reliability of the JOLTS data due to low response rates and frequent revisions, although similar indicators from job site Indeed also showed a decline in job postings [4] - The upcoming July non-farm payroll report is expected to provide further insights into the labor market, with predictions of slowing job growth and rising unemployment rates [5]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美国6月份的职位空缺在前两个月连续跃升后有所下降，但仍徘徊在一个表明劳动力需求总体稳定的水 平。 根据美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据，职位空缺从5月份修正后的771万个减少到744万个，低于市场预 期的750万个。 每个失业工人对应的职位空缺数——美联储官员作为劳动力供需平衡的一个代表指标而密切关注的比率 ——保持在1.1。在2022年的峰值时期，该比率为2比1。 一些经济学家对JOLTS数据的有效性提出了质疑，部分原因是该调查的回复率低且修正幅度大。招聘网 站Indeed一个每日报告的类似指数显示，6月份的职位空缺有所下降，延续了今年以来稳步下降的趋 势。 周二的另一份独立数据显示，随着对更广泛经济和劳动力市场前景的担忧有所缓解，美国7月份的消费 者信心有所增强。 劳动力市场的状况将是本周美联储政策会议的一个主要议题。美联储主席鲍威尔曾将劳动力市场描述 为"稳固"，并以关税对通胀影响的不确定性作为维持利率稳定的理由。 外界普遍预计官员们本周会再次这样做，但一些希望提振正在放缓的劳动力市场的决策者可能会提出异 议。这一点在将于周五公布的7月份非农就业报告 ...

Group 1 - The Central Bank of Russia indicates that a stable downward trend in inflation expectations has not yet formed, and inflation expectations remain high [1] - There are increasing signs of weakness in the labor market [1]

Group 1 - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve marks the first time a sitting U.S. president has visited the Fed in nearly 20 years, making him the fourth president to do so [2] - The visit coincides with rising criticism regarding the Fed's $2.5 billion renovation project, suggesting Trump's interest may relate to his background in real estate development [2] - Trump has been pressuring Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates from the current target range of 4.25%-4.50% to 1% to alleviate fiscal pressure [2] Group 2 - Market expectations indicate that the Fed is likely to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with only about a 60% chance of a rate cut in September according to the CME FedWatch tool [3] - Recent data shows a decrease in initial jobless claims, indicating a resilient U.S. labor market, which supports the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged [4] Group 3 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to pause interest rate cuts for the first time in over a year, citing that current inflation has reached the mid-term target of 2% [5] - ECB President Christine Lagarde warned of downside risks to economic growth, particularly due to escalating global trade tensions [5] - There are expectations that the ECB may consider a rate cut in September, with traders anticipating at least one more cut this year [5]