Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a significant liquidity injection of 1.2 trillion yuan through a reverse repurchase operation during the May Day holiday, aimed at ensuring ample funds in the banking system, which is expected to have a profound impact on the financial market [1] Group 1: Impact on Financial Market - The direct beneficiaries of this operation are banks, as the liquidity will enhance their lending capacity and potentially increase profit margins [2] - Financial stocks, including securities and insurance, are expected to benefit indirectly from the increased liquidity [2] - The injection of funds may also stimulate consumer demand, particularly in sectors such as tourism, hospitality, retail, and furniture, which are likely to attract more investment [2] Group 2: Reasons Supporting A-share Market Performance Post-Holiday - Incremental funds entering the market: Although the 1.2 trillion yuan primarily targets the real economy, some of this liquidity may indirectly flow into the stock market, enhancing market activity [3] - Weight of key sectors: Financial and consumer stocks hold a significant weight in the A-share market; a strong performance in these sectors could substantially increase the likelihood of index gains [4] - Approaching turning point: The A-share market has been consolidating before the holiday, and the PBOC's liquidity injection may act as a catalyst for a market shift [5] Group 3: Historical Context - Historical data indicates that large-scale liquidity injections by the central bank, such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or reverse repos, often lead to an upward trend in the A-share market within 1-3 months, especially during the early stages of economic recovery [5]

Group 1 - The central bank has conducted significant liquidity injections, including a 530.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation and a net injection of 422.8 billion yuan, indicating a strong effort to stabilize the market [1] - The market is expected to experience a potential rebound around mid-year, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing resilience despite slight fluctuations [3] - Concerns exist regarding the current market dynamics, as the index is facing pressure from the 30-day moving average, suggesting a cautious outlook for individual stocks, particularly in the semiconductor and technology sectors [5] Group 2 - The brokerage sector has shown a rebound, positively influencing market sentiment, with small-cap stocks gaining attention as funds shift from large to small caps [7] - The trading volume has increased despite expectations of low activity, indicating that investors are positioning for potential market gains following the holiday [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report forecasts the trend of various futures on April 30, 2025, including their support and resistance levels, and also analyzes the market situation on April 29, 2025, along with relevant macro - news and commodity - related information [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. IF2506 has resistance at 3748 and 3768 points, support at 3715 and 3705 points; IH2506 has resistance at 2640 and 2650 points, support at 2612 and 2605 points; IC2506 has resistance at 5530 and 5561 points, support at 5440 and 5420 points; IM2506 has resistance at 5820 and 5848 points, support at 5700 and 5668 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2506 and thirty - year TL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly. T2506 has resistance at 109.16 and 109.32 yuan, support at 109.00 and 108.88 yuan; TL2506 has resistance at 121.2 and 121.7 yuan, support at 120.8 and 120.4 yuan [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures AU2506 are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 792.2 and 795.0 yuan/gram, support at 780.0 and 774.5 yuan/gram; Silver futures AG2506 are likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 8296 and 8329 yuan/kg, support at 8159 and 8113 yuan/kg [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures CU2506 are likely to oscillate widely, with resistance at 78200 and 78600 yuan/ton, support at 77600 and 77200 yuan/ton; Aluminum futures AL2506 are likely to oscillate strongly, attacking resistance at 20100 and 20190 yuan/ton, with support at 19930 and 19880 yuan/ton; Alumina futures AO2509 are likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 2650 and 2600 yuan/ton, resistance at 2770 and 2787 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, crude oil, PTA, PVC, and soybean meal futures are likely to oscillate weakly; Glass and soda ash futures are likely to oscillate weakly [1]. 3.2 Macro - news and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: President Xi Jinping emphasized Shanghai's role in building an international science and technology innovation center; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the US Treasury Secretary's remarks on the tariff war; the Ministry of Commerce commented on Boeing's situation; the central financial institutions supported Shanghai's construction of an international financial center; the central bank increased capital injection to ensure market liquidity; the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments carried out a market access barrier cleanup campaign; the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security proposed reform measures; the central bank mobilized the implementation of the financial "five - article" statistical system [9]. - **International News**: The US Secretary of Commerce mentioned trade agreements and tariff policies; the US Treasury Secretary planned to have talks and proposed tax - related measures; the "helmsman" of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund warned of global economic risks; global investors sold ESG sustainable funds; US economic data such as job vacancies, consumer confidence, and housing prices were released; euro - zone economic data such as industrial and economic sentiment were released [11]. 3.3 Commodity Futures - related Information - **Domestic Futures Night Session**: Most domestic commodity futures closed lower at night, with energy - chemical products, black series, and some agricultural products falling, while some base metals had mixed performance [13]. - **International Futures**: International precious metal futures and oil futures closed lower on April 29, 2025; London base metals mostly fell; Chicago Board of Trade agricultural product futures closed lower [14]. - **Industry News**: The China National Coal Association called for regulating coal imports; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a plan for the livestock - breeding grain - saving action; the World Bank predicted commodity prices; US API crude oil inventories increased; the US dollar index rose [15]. 3.4 Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On April 29, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed different trends, with some falling slightly and some having short - term rebounds, but most faced resistance and support levels [17]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On April 29, 2025, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the ten - year and thirty - year contracts showing strong upward trends, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations to inject capital [40]. - **Other Futures**: Gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and other futures also had their respective trends on April 29, 2025, and their future trends were predicted, including support and resistance levels [46].

为确保 " 五一 " 假期前后市场流动性充裕，央行近日加大资金投放力度， 4 月 27 日至 29 日连续三日净 投放共计 3130 亿元，上周公开市场全口径净投放 8640 亿元，其中包括 6000 亿元 MLF 操作。此举旨 在对冲政府债供给高峰对流动性的压力，维护资金面稳定。预计 5 月流动性将持续宽松，央行将继续通 过 MLF 、逆回购等工具提供中长期流动性支持，不排除降准降息的可能性，以配合财政政策支持实体 经济。 重点品种： 股指、贵金属、铜 股指： 美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指涨跌分化，美容护理板块领涨，公用事业板块领跌，全市 成交额 1.04 万亿元，其中 IH2505 下跌 0.32% ， IF2505 下跌 0.21% ， IC2505 上涨 0.24% ， IM2505 上 涨 0.60% 。资金方面， 4 月 28 日融资余额增加 12.04 亿元至 17926.76 亿元。从本次关税争端风波来看 上证 50 和沪深 300 走势更为坚挺，这两个指数里的内需比重比较高，若后续中美间争端持续，受影响 程度会相对较小，防御性也较高；中证 500 和中证 1000 两个指数中成长型行业比 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Green Dahua Futures Breeding Industry Quarterly Report - Corn Mid - line Range Operation, Continuous Increase in Pig Supply, Egg Center of Gravity Moving Down, Near - term Weak and Long - term Strong [2] - Report Date: March 30, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Xiaojun [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Corn**: Mid - term, after the seasonal supply pressure is released, the domestic supply pattern may gradually tighten, and the price has partially reflected the upward expectation. Long - term, it maintains the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost. The trading strategy is to maintain a range trading idea for the long - term, a low - buying idea for the mid - term, and the short - term price will run in the range of 2250 - 2300 [17][108][109]. - **Pigs**: In 2025, the pig supply enters an upward cycle, and the supply in the second quarter will continue to increase, which may put pressure on the spot price. The futures price will follow the spot price for basis repair trading, and attention can be paid to the band trading opportunities when the price rises and meets resistance [62][64][113]. - **Eggs**: Mid - term, the supply pressure in the second quarter is expected to increase, and the breeding profit may turn negative. Long - term, if the capacity reduction in the first half of the year is less than expected, the supply pressure may continue to the second half of the year. Before large - scale culling, maintain a short - selling idea [85][89][121]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1上期回顾 - **Market Performance in the First Quarter**: Corn futures broke through and rose, with the 2505 contract rising 1.88% to 2271 yuan/ton; pig futures fluctuated strongly, with the 2505 contract rising 1.93% to 13450 yuan/ton; egg futures broke down, with the 2505 contract falling 7.62% to 3017 yuan/ton [9][13]. - **Strategy Review**: In early December 2024, it was suggested to pay attention to the opportunity of buying corn on dips. After the Spring Festival, it was continuously suggested to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling pigs and eggs on rallies [13]. 3.2本期分析 3.2.1 Corn - **Macro Logic**: The domestic and foreign liquidity is looser than expected, and the geopolitical situation has improved, so the macro - driving force has weakened [16]. - **Industry Logic**: It may enter the passive inventory - building cycle, and attention should be paid to policies such as directional rice/imported corn auctions and grain import policies [17]. - **Supply - Demand Logic** - **Supply**: Globally, the corn production and inventory have been reduced, and the supply situation is gradually tightening. In the US, the supply - demand remains relatively loose. In China, in the long - term, there is still a gap between production and demand, and the pricing logic of substitutes remains unchanged. In the 24/25 year, the import volume is expected to decrease significantly, and the domestic supply - demand pattern may shift from loose to basically balanced. In the medium - term, after the seasonal supply pressure is released, the supply pattern may gradually tighten. In the second quarter, attention should be paid to the policy grain release rhythm, wheat substitution scale, etc. [17] - **Consumption**: In 2025, the pig production capacity increases, and the存栏 of egg - laying and meat - eating poultry remains high. The feed consumption maintains rigid demand, and the deep - processing consumption is stable with a slight increase, providing rigid support for the corn price. In the second quarter, attention should be paid to the inventory - building strength of downstream feed enterprises and the changes in the存栏 of pigs and poultry [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term, maintain a range trading idea; mid - term, maintain a low - buying idea with a neutral target of 2350; short - term, the price runs in the range of 2250 - 2300, with support at 2250 - 2260 and resistance at 2300 - 2310 [18][109]. 3.2.2 Pigs - **Macro Logic**: Domestically, focus on the interaction between China's CPI trend and pig prices. In February 2025, the CPI was - 0.7% year - on - year. After excluding the impact of the Spring Festival month shift, the CPI still increased year - on - year [60][111]. - **Industry Logic**: Under the background of the normalization of diseases after African swine fever, passive capacity reduction leads to significant periodic fluctuations in pig prices, with a shorter cycle and higher frequency. The process of large - scale concentration in the breeding end is not over, and enterprises with low costs and good financial conditions continue to increase capacity utilization and expand market share [61][112]. - **Supply - Demand Logic** - **Supply**: Excluding the impact of winter diseases, the pig supply in 2025 enters an upward cycle. The sow存栏 data and new - born piglet data indicate that the supply in the second quarter will continue to increase, especially the incremental pork from group weight - gain and second - fattening after the Spring Festival. The spot price may be under pressure, and the support level is 13 yuan/kg [62][64][113]. - **Consumption**: The pork consumption is relatively rigid, mainly following seasonal patterns in the short - term, and long - term attention should be paid to the transformation of the consumption structure [81]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price will follow the spot price for basis repair trading. Pay attention to the band trading opportunities when the price rises and meets resistance. The upper pressure levels for LH2505, LH2507, and LH2509 are 13700 - 14000, 13600 - 13700, and 14300 - 14500 respectively [64][115]. 3.2.3 Eggs - **Macro Logic**: The domestic and foreign liquidity release is less than expected. Domestically, focus on raw material prices and CPI changes [84][117]. - **Industry Logic**: The egg - laying chicken breeding industry has been profitable for 4 years, and the large - scale rate continues to increase, which will change the breeding subject structure and production efficiency [84][117]. - **Supply - Demand Logic** - **Supply**: The存栏 of grandparent - stock egg - laying chickens increases, and the import proportion rises significantly. The存栏 of laying hens is slowly increasing. The culling rhythm is slow due to breeding profits. In the second quarter, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory level may be higher than the same period [85][87][118]. - **Consumption**: The downstream consumption improved in late February, and it is expected to increase in March, but the increase may be limited due to lower vegetable prices [85][118]. - **Trading Strategy**: Before large - scale culling, maintain a short - selling idea. If large - scale culling starts, close short positions on near - term contracts and consider long positions on far - term contracts [90][122].